Speculation: Now or Never ?

[CupsOverCash]

That would be great, and it sounds logical except for one thing, draft pedigree. An agent negotiating for a #3 overall is in a different position than one representing an undrafted player or a 7th rounder. Walsh will have the whole “ceiling†argument on his side. A 60 point season for Drouin will mean 6 million minimum because they will argue that his ceiling is 80+ points.

I think for Drouins sake he needs to have a great season to get over 5. He kinda screwed himself with that sit out last year.

 

[DFC]

If Drouin scores in the 60 point range, a bridge deal makes sense for both sides. Drouin won't want to sign for 6m when he knows he can get 8ish in two years, and the team will want the extra time. It's not at all like the Kucherov situation, where Kuch has already proven he's our best forward (for the time being). If Drouin can make that claim after this year, he won't want a bridge deal. But that would be an awfully big step forward.

 

[HoseEmDown]

That would be great, and it sounds logical except for one thing, draft pedigree. An agent negotiating for a #3 overall is in a different position than one representing an undrafted player or a 7th rounder. Walsh will have the whole “ceiling†argument on his side. A 60 point season for Drouin will mean 6 million minimum because they will argue that his ceiling is 80+ points.

Pedigree would make sense if all 3 were coming off their ELC's and had similar production. Drouin has been severely outplayed by said Undrafted rookie and 7th rounder as well as players drafted behind him in his draft year. You can't use pedigree when the on ice product doesn't compare to others.

60 points will definitely not mean 6 minimum that's asinine. 60 points in 82 games will take his career ppg from 0.46 to 0.58, nice jump but not good enough for 6 yet. Look at what MacKinnon, Barkov and Monahan got the only thing Drouin has in comparison to them is being drafted close to them. Look at Huberdeau he had a good rookie year, sophomore slump and good 3rd year and signed a bridge at 3.25 and after another good year is in line for 5.9 after next season. If Drouin hits 60 his ppg will be similar to Huberdeau after his ELC. I can't see Drouin going right to 5.9 and skipping the 3+ bridge deal.

 

[TampaJay]

Pedigree would make sense if all 3 were coming off their ELC's and had similar production. Drouin has been severely outplayed by said Undrafted rookie and 7th rounder as well as players drafted behind him in his draft year. You can't use pedigree when the on ice product doesn't compare to others.

60 points will definitely not mean 6 minimum that's asinine. 60 points in 82 games will take his career ppg from 0.46 to 0.58, nice jump but not good enough for 6 yet. Look at what MacKinnon, Barkov and Monahan got the only thing Drouin has in comparison to them is being drafted close to them. Look at Huberdeau he had a good rookie year, sophomore slump and good 3rd year and signed a bridge at 3.25 and after another good year is in line for 5.9 after next season. If Drouin hits 60 his ppg will be similar to Huberdeau after his ELC. I can't see Drouin going right to 5.9 and skipping the 3+ bridge deal.

So let’s say he gets 60 points next year which is not an unreasonable prediction. Then your choices are to sign him to a 4-5 mil bridge deal and take the risk that at the end of it he will be unaffordable for a cap limited team. Or, sign him long term for 6 mil. It all depends on that question of “ceilingâ€. If you think he is going to be an 80 point guy isn’t it better to lock him up? If not then a bridge deal is smart. The ceiling is the key.

 

[HoseEmDown]

So let’s say he gets 60 points next year which is not an unreasonable prediction. Then your choices are to sign him to a 4-5 mil bridge deal and take the risk that at the end of it he will be unaffordable for a cap limited team. Or, sign him long term for 6 mil. It all depends on that question of “ceilingâ€. If you think he is going to be an 80 point guy isn’t it better to lock him up? If not then a bridge deal is smart. The ceiling is the key.

Bridge deal. If he goes from a 60 to 80 point player he shouldn't go from 4.5 to 8. He should go to about 7 since he probably will be only a 20 goal scorer and one dimensional. If he wins a Conn Smythe then the numbers may change. So we need 2.5 more for him which we'll have 2 more years to come up with as the cap should rise and we can move some other contracts out to fit him.