Proposal: No to Gibson

[Kurtz]

Gibson's Goals Saved Above Expected has been abysmal the last 3 seasons as well suggesting that poor team performance is not the catalyst behind his poor play.

Maybe the change of scenery does him a lot of good but there's just too many red flags to take a chance on that contract.

How is that stat calculated? Because looking at the goalies it does seem to be largely dictated by the team. For instance Nedjelovic (sp) was the 6th best goalie in that stat last year, but one of the worst this year. Freddie was the 3rd best goalie in that stat this year and quite bad last year.

Or take a look at the 2019-2020 where the 2nd and 3rd best goalies in that stat were Boston's starter and Boston's backup. Or the year before where the 3rd and 4th best goalies were NYI's starter and backup.

Tons of examples like that on that list. It's largely a team stat.

 

[Grifter3511]

Indeed he has.

Husso took over the starter role by the end of the season and was the starter for game 1 of the payoffs, and with good reason.

Last season
Husso - 2341 mins, 2.56GAA, .919sv%
Binnington - 2145 mins, 3.13GAA, .901sv%

Obviously he had that magical rookie year run, and then for the 5 games in the playoffs this year he was terrific again. But on the "clutch" flipside the Blues 2 previous playoffs:

Binnington - 0 wins and 9 losses, 4.19GAA, .875sv%
Allen - 2 wins and 2 losses, 1.89GAAm .935sv%

Binnington still appears to be a capable 1A/1B caliber goalies but a steady decline over the last 3 years has him trending quickly toward Matt Murray territory.

As I was reading this I began to picture MAF. When he's on, boy is he on. But he's off just as much or more than he is on.

 

[Apex Predator]

Mrazek, Holl, and a 2nd round pick for Robert Lehner.

Lehner has high upside, better than Gibson in recent years.

He's a big goalie.: 6'4" 250 lbs.

Golden Knights fans have turned on Lehner.

Knights need to find playing time for Broissoit.

I want to get rid of Mrazek and Holl.

He has an 8 no trade list I wonder if Toronto is on that list.

Robin Lehner holds Q&A on Twitter with some interesting responses | Sideline Sources

Robin Lehner is one of the most vocal players in the National Hockey League. Whether it be him speaking out about the league's Covid-19

sidelinesources.com

Maybe he’s changed his mind on Toronto but when asked if he would like to be a maple leaf he said no.

 

[BertCorbeau]

He has an 8 no trade list I wonder if Toronto is on that list.

Robin Lehner holds Q&A on Twitter with some interesting responses | Sideline Sources

Robin Lehner is one of the most vocal players in the National Hockey League. Whether it be him speaking out about the league's Covid-19

sidelinesources.com

Maybe he’s changed his mind on Toronto but when asked if he would like to be a maple leaf he said no.

Lehner's a head case.. He could go nuclear in this market if he struggles, big risk

 

[SeaOfBlue]

How is that stat calculated? Because looking at the goalies it does seem to be largely dictated by the team. For instance Nedjelovic (sp) was the 6th best goalie in that stat last year, but one of the worst this year. Freddie was the 3rd best goalie in that stat this year and quite bad last year.

Or take a look at the 2019-2020 where the 2nd and 3rd best goalies in that stat were Boston's starter and Boston's backup. Or the year before where the 3rd and 4th best goalies were NYI's starter and backup.

Tons of examples like that on that list. It's largely a team stat.

Team does play into it, because the stat assumes all shots are the same.

Personally, I think looking at the difference between xGA and GA is the best way to look at it.

Shestyerkin: +0.79/60 goals saved above expectation
Andersen: +0.5/60 goals saved above expectation
Kuemper: +0.3/60
Markstrom: +0.25/60 goals saved above expectation
Vasilevsky: +0.16/60 goals saved above expectation
Ullmark: -0.02/60
Lehner: +0.02/60
Swayman: -0.07/60
Hill: -0.38/60 (he had the best xGA/60 on the list)
Vejmelka: -0.46/60 (he had one of the worst xGA/60)
Korpisalo: -0.92/60 (he had the absolute worst xGA/60)
Comrie: +0.45/60 (by far the best numbers out of a guy who was facing bad xGA)

Now let's look at our goalies and Anaheim's:
Campbell: -0.13/60
Gibson: -0.16/60
Mrazek: -0.79/60
Stolarz: +0.14/60

Now obviously this normalizes playing time, so while Stolarz and Vasilevsky do have a similar goals saved above expectation, Vasilevsky also did so with a starter's workload, while Stolarz did it as a backup.

However, it also shows that Gibson did not just suck because he played behind a bad defense. He did worse than the defense in front of him. Carey Price, during the regular season last year, was -0.32/60. He also did crap in the regular season obviously (especially since Montreal's xGA was excellent), but in the playoffs, he was +0.43/60. Montreal's defense was mediocre by the xGA standards.

Also, this year's Bunting may very well be Eric Comrie.

 

[BlueBaron]

I started off wanting Kuemper but now I'm thinking about Lehner. Kuemper will probably have a higher hit. 5 mil Lehner seems like the best value in our price range.

 

[TheScandal89]

Lehner's a head case.. He could go nuclear in this market if he struggles, big risk

I can see him imploding here from the pressure and media too.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I can see him imploding here from the pressure and media.

On the flip side I could see him punching Steve Simmonds in the face… soooo

 

[mydnyte]

After his 17-18 season Gibson should have absolutely been in conversation for top 3

Also, even if he wasn't, your statement implies the current competition is equivalent to the competition when Gibson was at his best. Is that even the case. Right now, there's a clear top 2 in the league followed by a drop off and fight for the #3 position between the likes of Sorokin, Helly, Saros etc. Gibson back in in form could put him there

not even close...

Wins 10th, save % 8th, gaa 12th

Rk		Name	Team	Age	GP	GAA	SV%	W	L	SO	TIME	G	A	P	PIM
1		Andrei Vasilevski	TBL	23	65	2.62	0.920	44	17	8	3825	0	2	2	14
2		Connor Hellebuyck	WPG	24	67	2.36	0.924	44	11	6	3966	0	2	2	0
3		Pekka Rinne	NSH	35	59	2.31	0.927	42	13	8	3475	0	1	1	6
4		Frederik Andersen	TOR	28	66	2.81	0.918	38	21	5	3889	0	1	1	2
5		Sergei Bobrovsky	CBJ	29	65	2.42	0.921	37	22	5	3912	0	3	3	0
6		Devan Dubnyk	MIN	31	60	2.52	0.918	35	16	5	3450	0	3	3	12
7		Tuukka Rask	BOS	30	54	2.36	0.917	34	14	3	3173	0	2	2	4
8		Braden Holtby	WSH	28	54	2.99	0.907	34	16	0	3067	0	0	0	2
9		Jonathan Quick	LAK	31	64	2.40	0.921	33	28	5	3677	0	4	4	10
10		John Gibson	ANA	24	60	2.43	0.926	31	18	4	3428	0	1	1	16

 

[mydnyte]

Team does play into it, because the stat assumes all shots are the same.

Personally, I think looking at the difference between xGA and GA is the best way to look at it.

Shestyerkin: +0.79/60 goals saved above expectation
Andersen: +0.5/60 goals saved above expectation
Kuemper: +0.3/60
Markstrom: +0.25/60 goals saved above expectation
Vasilevsky: +0.16/60 goals saved above expectation
Ullmark: -0.02/60
Lehner: +0.02/60
Swayman: -0.07/60
Hill: -0.38/60 (he had the best xGA/60 on the list)
Vejmelka: -0.46/60 (he had one of the worst xGA/60)
Korpisalo: -0.92/60 (he had the absolute worst xGA/60)
Comrie: +0.45/60 (by far the best numbers out of a guy who was facing bad xGA)

Now let's look at our goalies and Anaheim's:
Campbell: -0.13/60
Gibson: -0.16/60
Mrazek: -0.79/60
Stolarz: +0.14/60

Now obviously this normalizes playing time, so while Stolarz and Vasilevsky do have a similar goals saved above expectation, Vasilevsky also did so with a starter's workload, while Stolarz did it as a backup.

However, it also shows that Gibson did not just suck because he played behind a bad defense. He did worse than the defense in front of him. Carey Price, during the regular season last year, was -0.32/60. He also did crap in the regular season obviously (especially since Montreal's xGA was excellent), but in the playoffs, he was +0.43/60. Montreal's defense was mediocre by the xGA standards.

Also, this year's Bunting may very well be Eric Comrie.

Comrie could be a high risk, high reward goalie, but, i'd rather him in a tandem, than 'hope' he can be a #1 for the first time in his career (like Campbell) but, on the Leafs, his stats would likely improve too (like Campbell's did)
though he'd likely be easy to sign at a contract like or less than Campbell was at.
if we took a gamble on Comrie, i can see us retaining Mrazek and playing them in tandem.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Gibson better than what we got but not sure if he is a Cup winner type of guy .. Binner would be a little cheaper and we know he can carry a last place team at XMAS to a Cup .. that would be out of left filed but he is a local guy and loves TO

 

[Ianturnedbull]

I don’t want to see the leafs give up the assets needed to acquire Gibson along with having his cap hit. I honestly don’t believe he is as good as campbell. Three years of declining numbers show this. If I’m dubas and giving up assets to pay a goalie in the 6 m range I’m seriously trying to figure out what it takes to get binnington out of St. Louis. To me he is one if the top 5 clutch goalies when it matters. Just curious what others think and what goalies (other then Gibson) would uou like to see dubas go after

I sort of feel like this trade for Gibson is already done. It's just a matter of time.

Perhaps this is the most publicized offseason player transaction since David Clarkson became a Maple Leaf.

 

[Rielly4]

I feel like Adin Hill will be a leaf this off season.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Price had a save percentage of .900% in 17-18 season, then bounced back with .918%, then fell down to .909% the following season, and back down to .901% the season after (before taking his team to the finals).

Good goalies can have some mediocre years on paper when the team in front of them sucks.


I asked ANA fans about this fact, they said Stolarz tended to get his starts against weaker teams.

Price also has a vezina, hart & Olympic gold medal and is much older than mrazek or Gibson

 

[Nylander88]

Only way I take Gibson for 5 more years at his 6.4million is if Anaheim takes Mrazek & Kerfoot for him. Then we come out saving money this season, and get our of Mrazek's garbage deal. Otherwise, I'm not spending big time assets on an expensive goalie who has shown poor numbers the last few years. In all likelihood he would have better stats on our team, but it's still a bit money/term gamble when we don't exactly have cap space to burn

 

[Nylanderthal]

Mrazek, Holl, and a 2nd round pick for Robert Lehner.

Lehner has high upside, better than Gibson in recent years.

He's a big goalie.: 6'4" 250 lbs.

Golden Knights fans have turned on Lehner.

Knights need to find playing time for Broissoit.

I want to get rid of Mrazek and Holl.

That’s all I’d give up for a Gibson as well. Too many questions to be offering up massive assets like a first or key prospects

Only way I take Gibson for 5 more years at his 6.4million is if Anaheim takes Mrazek & Kerfoot for him. Then we come out saving money this season, and get our of Mrazek's garbage deal. Otherwise, I'm not spending big time assets on an expensive goalie who has shown poor numbers the last few years. In all likelihood he would have better stats on our team, but it's still a bit money/term gamble when we don't exactly have cap space to burn

Kerfoot wouldn’t be a “have to take” he definitely has value around the league. But I largely agree with you in the idea of no big pieces for him

 

[Nylander88]

I feel like Adin Hill will be a leaf this off season.

Interesting. What gives you that idea?

 

[Nylander88]

The way I see it, we shoot Mrazek into the sun by any means necessary. After that, our options are:
1) We go Campbell if he will sign for 4.5mil or less. Otherwise we walk away.
2) We get a brand new tandem each for 2.5mil or less. Something like Holtby & Husso for example
3) We go big game hunting and we grab a goalie that can hopefully steal us a series, and plays 60ish games as a legit, undisputed #1. But we don't even know if a guy like Gibson can get back to that level of goaltending.

 

[tmlfan98]

I feel like Adin Hill will be a leaf this off season.

Adin Hill would be a really underrated buy low option if the Sharks are looking to move him. Has put up pretty impressive HDGSAA numbers on bad Arizona and SJ teams.

 

[123offtheglass]

I'd be all for acquiring Gibson if the price is reasonable, especially if they could attach Mrazek to such deal.

It's pretty common for goalies stats to dip but come back to life, especially for a 28 year old. He's a gamble with potential high reward, a change of scenery could do him good.

This year he probably had the worst support in front of him of all goaltenders; his xGA/60, chances against & shots against all support that.

 

[Nylander88]

I'd be all for acquiring Gibson if the price is reasonable, especially if they could attach Mrazek to such deal.

It's pretty common for goalies stats to dip but come back to life, especially for a 28 year old. He's a gamble with potential high reward, a change of scenery could do him good.

This year he probably had the worst support in front of him of all goaltenders; his xGA/60, chances against & shots against all support that.

Mrazek would have to be included imo. I'd be okay swinging a big deal with them too, something like:

Ducks receive: Nylander, Mrazek, Sandin

Leafs receive: Gibson, McTavish, Comtois

 

[Rielly4]

Interesting. What gives you that idea?

CJ on TSN 1050 said that the leafs are going for cheaper goalies. More under the radar guys. To me the San Jose goalies are perfect canadiates, as well as some free agents who were backups like Comrie, Wedgewood etc...I could see them going for Stolarz instead of Gibson too.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

CJ on TSN 1050 said that the leafs are going for cheaper goalies. More under the radar guys. To me the San Jose goalies are perfect canadiates, as well as some free agents who were backups like Comrie, Wedgewood etc...I could see them going for Stolarz instead of Gibson too.

Hmmm yeah that strategy has really taken us far.

Go for it Dubas, you’ll be signing your own pink slip.

 

[Legion34]

CJ on TSN 1050 said that the leafs are going for cheaper goalies. More under the radar guys. To me the San Jose goalies are perfect canadiates, as well as some free agents who were backups like Comrie, Wedgewood etc...I could see them going for Stolarz instead of Gibson too.

Cj is pretty money re the leafs. But this seems nuts in Marty’s big year

 

[Rielly4]

Hmmm yeah that strategy has really taken us far.

Go for it Dubas, you’ll be signing your own pink slip.

Im not so sure, I like the idea of Gibson if he is a stud goalie. But if hes only okay...Who knows maybe Adin Hill would outperform him for way less money and less trade chips.