MATHEW BARZAL - VIDEO BREAKDOWN
I will be posting the breakdowns here since they stretch pages a lot and I want to keep the final ranking thread tidy. Will link them in both threads though.
The purpose of these breakdowns is to show where there might be room for improvement. I think we all know these guys are excellent prospects and there's no need to re-iterate a lot of the stuff that's already known. So I will mostly be focusing on the "concerns" or areas of improvement if you will.
With Barzal, he is really a pretty classic playmaking center. That's probably my first thought when I watch him play. We know about his vision, about his speed and overall mobility, about his puck-handling qualities, about his ability to jump into holes and play with intelligence. I will say that one thing that gets underrated with Barzal is his ability to strip the puck-carrier of the puck with his pokecheck. I think he is a bit underrated in that regard.
Now as to the room for improvement, or rather nitpicking things that bother me somewhat.
And let's be honest, the guys that I will do are all projected top 10 picks in a pretty strong draft, so you can to some extent call it nit-picking.
My concern for Barzal is two-fold. It's where his defensive ability (both through the level of his engagement, and to a bigger extent the fact that he will probably top out as a mid sized C and probably not a very strong/thick one at that beyond what is average) and his penchant for overhandling the puck, passing up shots, and skating himself through complex plays "from something into nothing", combine for the question as to whether he is a legit #1, a middle of the road "kind of" #1, or a #2C. And through that, for me the biggest question mark is - is this the player that can compete against the league's best centers and if not, where does that leave him? If the standard is winning the Cup, is then he a #2 on a Cup contender?
Disclaimer: It would be somewhat fair to say that part of the "fault" in these examples that follow could also easily be put on Barzal's linemates since they in general seem to be inconsistent in offering support and open options to Barzal, but to some degree you could say that for a lot of high-end prospects whose hockey IQ blows the rest of the junior team out of the water, Barzal might be more affected by that than others considering the style of play and the fact that he does not have a really high end offensive player on his team.
[collapse=barzal1]Let's start here. These two plays feature two of classic Barzal techniques. That are both excellent when they work and not so great when they don't. First two frames, you have a thing that Barzal loves to do all over the ice. That is he, likes to utilize his skates/cuts to throw off checking players. Looks like he's about to go outside, defenseman bites, changes his angle poof he squeezes around and he makes a play on the other end of the ice. No issue with that. Second play. Gets the puck, skates backwards towards the boards, lures in two players, dishes it off to an open man. Poof play made. No issue with that either.
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[collapse=barzal2]The thing with Barzal is that he does a lot of these plays really by barely getting them through, and sometimes he has the tendency to simply overdo it, which ends up backfiring on him. For example even the second play I've posted in the first picture, he could have probably dished it off before he skated himself completely out of room against the boards and also maintained forward momentum towards the net. But you can't argue with results and I'm nitpicking here. So let's take a look at almost an identical play from the same game where it doesn't end up working out for him. First frame gets the puck. Second frame again does excellently in changing the angle and throwing a player off. Third frame he now has a gap to make a play, but in fairness to Barzal, his linemate has barely reacted at all yet and has not opened up himself much so we'll excuse Barzal here since his linemate has effectively done nothing in all three frames. Fourth frame, his linemate finally reacts and opens himself up for a pass, and there's another one coming down the boards below the goal-line, so Barzal now has two passing options with a gap to make a play. But what ends up happening is he skates himself into the boards through overhandling.
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[collapse=barzal3]In fairness to Barzal, we are nitpicking here a little bit. I do think part of his struggles when this ends up happening to him is due to the fact that he doesn't exactly have a high-end offensive player to play with in Seattle. But I would not write it off entirely under the team factor. I do think there is a legitimate tendency for Barzal to overhandle and overcomplicate the play. Why do I think that? Because there are shifts where he legitimately does just that with no outside factors to account for. Enter next example. Here in the first two frames you will actually see Barzal utilizing a somewhat underrated quality of his, which is he is pretty decent at stripping pucks from players who don't pay attention. In the third frame, he really has nowhere to go since he has two defensemen standing up front of him (as visible in the next frame) and a checker strapped on his back. His linemate is turning and about to go into the offensive zone, so a good solution would be simply to dump the puck in his direction. But Barzal does one of his cuts again, and blocks himself in the neutral zone between two players and loses possession also with a linemate of his going the wrong direction of play. Not a big mistake, but it does show a bit of that tendency to overcomplicate things at times.
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[collapse=barzal4]Now, we've been somewhat nitpicky. But if there's a grand example that the "overhandle, overcomplicate, overpass" trifecta is a real thing is this one. There is just no way Barzal should have passed this shot up, but he did. And things like that do happen once in a while to everybody, but with Barzal if you watch him enough it does tend to happen a bit more regularly where that tends to be his M.O. a little bit, even though he is an excellent center prospect.
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[collapse=barzal5]And for me the biggest concern with Barzal's offensive game that is all-around outstanding and as close as you can get to a true playmaking center, is that the rate at which these plays where he skates himself from something into nothing, or skates himself into the boards, will increase at the next level. They might also decrease truth be told as he ends up playing with better players that get open more often. But it is something to look out for, as in where do you see him topping out offensively once you consider that he probably projects as average to decent defensively and whether that is enough to compete as a #1 C or is that a #2 or is that a kind of #1C but not that level where he's going to compete with a Toews, a Getzlaf, a Kopitar, a Bergeron or any of those big two-way forces. In this frame, he should have probably curled back to the point as he was "showing" in the first frame, but as much as it was a fake that threw #17 off, he also ended up skating himself into the boards with no room to make a play and lost the puck.
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[collapse=barzal6]Now here is probably the most interesting sequence. Especially since Barzal ends up scoring off this play, but I am really quite sceptical of this sequence playing out at the NHL level. Still you can use this one sequence both to show both positive qualities of Barzal as well as areas of improvement. First frame, you have Barzal with the puck, he has pretty much two points to pass to as all 5 opposing players are hemmed in relatively deep. But he curls back in towards the boards, ok not a big deal. So now he momentarily went from two options to zero options, but let's wait for his teammates to react. And they do in the third frame of the sequence, Barzal has an open option of passing it forward up the boards to a linemate that is getting open. But he does not, he curls back in again and splits the defense in half. Which is an amazing play by Barzal. But then he momentarily loses control of the puck. Draws in 3 players and finally passes to the point. His teammate shoots the puck from the point, there's a juicy rebound and Barzal cleans it up for a goal (from pretty far out). Now as much as that is an amazing junior play, I'm not 100% sure that he will be able to do that at the NHL level. Mainly don't see those two players being as incompetent as to commit as badly as they did in their angles and both at the same time. Nor do I see Barzal recovering from that loose puck without anyone getting a stick on it. To me this is both a positive yet someone questionable play as to the translatability of it. But as a whole it probably shows off both the amazing skill, skating and flair/creativity of Barzal as well as the fact that he sometimes plays on the "edge" of overhandling/overcomplicating plays. It does work a lot more often at the junior level that it might against NHL defensemen with their ability, positioning, skating and reach. But to Barzal's credit he will also have players who know how to get open better.
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[collapse=barzal7]Then we have a defensive play. One of the things that I really don't like is that centers have a lax body language or are gliding towards the blue-line if full control of the puck has not been established. But you could say that probably for a lot of junior centers. Now this is just one instance, Barzal is usually pretty good with his angles and pokecheck, but I would say that he's not really a very engaging puck-hound type of player.
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[collapse=barzal8]And the other thing is, he probably will never be that adept at playing against bigger forwards who have that reach and big "butt" to stick out and protect the puck. Which when you put those two factors together I think defensive upside of Barzal is probably somewhere between average to decent. He's not much of a hound or particularly physically adept at either winning board battles or battling against those players that turn their back to him. But he has good anticipation and puck-stripping qualities.
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Overall, once you draw the line under it all. Great player with little to no holes, the ones that he does have you do have to nitpick a bit to get at them. For me the question mark with Barzal is where does he fall on the scale from a legit #1 C that can compete against the league's best, a "kind of" #1 C that is maybe the top center on a good but not great team, a #1b/#2 on a Cup contender, or a #2 anywhere which would probably be his lower-end of the potential.
I will be posting the breakdowns here since they stretch pages a lot and I want to keep the final ranking thread tidy. Will link them in both threads though.
The purpose of these breakdowns is to show where there might be room for improvement. I think we all know these guys are excellent prospects and there's no need to re-iterate a lot of the stuff that's already known. So I will mostly be focusing on the "concerns" or areas of improvement if you will.
With Barzal, he is really a pretty classic playmaking center. That's probably my first thought when I watch him play. We know about his vision, about his speed and overall mobility, about his puck-handling qualities, about his ability to jump into holes and play with intelligence. I will say that one thing that gets underrated with Barzal is his ability to strip the puck-carrier of the puck with his pokecheck. I think he is a bit underrated in that regard.
Now as to the room for improvement, or rather nitpicking things that bother me somewhat.
And let's be honest, the guys that I will do are all projected top 10 picks in a pretty strong draft, so you can to some extent call it nit-picking.My concern for Barzal is two-fold. It's where his defensive ability (both through the level of his engagement, and to a bigger extent the fact that he will probably top out as a mid sized C and probably not a very strong/thick one at that beyond what is average) and his penchant for overhandling the puck, passing up shots, and skating himself through complex plays "from something into nothing", combine for the question as to whether he is a legit #1, a middle of the road "kind of" #1, or a #2C. And through that, for me the biggest question mark is - is this the player that can compete against the league's best centers and if not, where does that leave him? If the standard is winning the Cup, is then he a #2 on a Cup contender?
Disclaimer: It would be somewhat fair to say that part of the "fault" in these examples that follow could also easily be put on Barzal's linemates since they in general seem to be inconsistent in offering support and open options to Barzal, but to some degree you could say that for a lot of high-end prospects whose hockey IQ blows the rest of the junior team out of the water, Barzal might be more affected by that than others considering the style of play and the fact that he does not have a really high end offensive player on his team.
[collapse=barzal1]Let's start here. These two plays feature two of classic Barzal techniques. That are both excellent when they work and not so great when they don't. First two frames, you have a thing that Barzal loves to do all over the ice. That is he, likes to utilize his skates/cuts to throw off checking players. Looks like he's about to go outside, defenseman bites, changes his angle poof he squeezes around and he makes a play on the other end of the ice. No issue with that. Second play. Gets the puck, skates backwards towards the boards, lures in two players, dishes it off to an open man. Poof play made. No issue with that either.
[collapse=barzal2]The thing with Barzal is that he does a lot of these plays really by barely getting them through, and sometimes he has the tendency to simply overdo it, which ends up backfiring on him. For example even the second play I've posted in the first picture, he could have probably dished it off before he skated himself completely out of room against the boards and also maintained forward momentum towards the net. But you can't argue with results and I'm nitpicking here. So let's take a look at almost an identical play from the same game where it doesn't end up working out for him. First frame gets the puck. Second frame again does excellently in changing the angle and throwing a player off. Third frame he now has a gap to make a play, but in fairness to Barzal, his linemate has barely reacted at all yet and has not opened up himself much so we'll excuse Barzal here since his linemate has effectively done nothing in all three frames. Fourth frame, his linemate finally reacts and opens himself up for a pass, and there's another one coming down the boards below the goal-line, so Barzal now has two passing options with a gap to make a play. But what ends up happening is he skates himself into the boards through overhandling.
[collapse=barzal3]In fairness to Barzal, we are nitpicking here a little bit. I do think part of his struggles when this ends up happening to him is due to the fact that he doesn't exactly have a high-end offensive player to play with in Seattle. But I would not write it off entirely under the team factor. I do think there is a legitimate tendency for Barzal to overhandle and overcomplicate the play. Why do I think that? Because there are shifts where he legitimately does just that with no outside factors to account for. Enter next example. Here in the first two frames you will actually see Barzal utilizing a somewhat underrated quality of his, which is he is pretty decent at stripping pucks from players who don't pay attention. In the third frame, he really has nowhere to go since he has two defensemen standing up front of him (as visible in the next frame) and a checker strapped on his back. His linemate is turning and about to go into the offensive zone, so a good solution would be simply to dump the puck in his direction. But Barzal does one of his cuts again, and blocks himself in the neutral zone between two players and loses possession also with a linemate of his going the wrong direction of play. Not a big mistake, but it does show a bit of that tendency to overcomplicate things at times.
[collapse=barzal4]Now, we've been somewhat nitpicky. But if there's a grand example that the "overhandle, overcomplicate, overpass" trifecta is a real thing is this one. There is just no way Barzal should have passed this shot up, but he did. And things like that do happen once in a while to everybody, but with Barzal if you watch him enough it does tend to happen a bit more regularly where that tends to be his M.O. a little bit, even though he is an excellent center prospect.
[collapse=barzal5]And for me the biggest concern with Barzal's offensive game that is all-around outstanding and as close as you can get to a true playmaking center, is that the rate at which these plays where he skates himself from something into nothing, or skates himself into the boards, will increase at the next level. They might also decrease truth be told as he ends up playing with better players that get open more often. But it is something to look out for, as in where do you see him topping out offensively once you consider that he probably projects as average to decent defensively and whether that is enough to compete as a #1 C or is that a #2 or is that a kind of #1C but not that level where he's going to compete with a Toews, a Getzlaf, a Kopitar, a Bergeron or any of those big two-way forces. In this frame, he should have probably curled back to the point as he was "showing" in the first frame, but as much as it was a fake that threw #17 off, he also ended up skating himself into the boards with no room to make a play and lost the puck.
[collapse=barzal6]Now here is probably the most interesting sequence. Especially since Barzal ends up scoring off this play, but I am really quite sceptical of this sequence playing out at the NHL level. Still you can use this one sequence both to show both positive qualities of Barzal as well as areas of improvement. First frame, you have Barzal with the puck, he has pretty much two points to pass to as all 5 opposing players are hemmed in relatively deep. But he curls back in towards the boards, ok not a big deal. So now he momentarily went from two options to zero options, but let's wait for his teammates to react. And they do in the third frame of the sequence, Barzal has an open option of passing it forward up the boards to a linemate that is getting open. But he does not, he curls back in again and splits the defense in half. Which is an amazing play by Barzal. But then he momentarily loses control of the puck. Draws in 3 players and finally passes to the point. His teammate shoots the puck from the point, there's a juicy rebound and Barzal cleans it up for a goal (from pretty far out). Now as much as that is an amazing junior play, I'm not 100% sure that he will be able to do that at the NHL level. Mainly don't see those two players being as incompetent as to commit as badly as they did in their angles and both at the same time. Nor do I see Barzal recovering from that loose puck without anyone getting a stick on it. To me this is both a positive yet someone questionable play as to the translatability of it. But as a whole it probably shows off both the amazing skill, skating and flair/creativity of Barzal as well as the fact that he sometimes plays on the "edge" of overhandling/overcomplicating plays. It does work a lot more often at the junior level that it might against NHL defensemen with their ability, positioning, skating and reach. But to Barzal's credit he will also have players who know how to get open better.
[collapse=barzal7]Then we have a defensive play. One of the things that I really don't like is that centers have a lax body language or are gliding towards the blue-line if full control of the puck has not been established. But you could say that probably for a lot of junior centers. Now this is just one instance, Barzal is usually pretty good with his angles and pokecheck, but I would say that he's not really a very engaging puck-hound type of player.
[collapse=barzal8]And the other thing is, he probably will never be that adept at playing against bigger forwards who have that reach and big "butt" to stick out and protect the puck. Which when you put those two factors together I think defensive upside of Barzal is probably somewhere between average to decent. He's not much of a hound or particularly physically adept at either winning board battles or battling against those players that turn their back to him. But he has good anticipation and puck-stripping qualities.
Overall, once you draw the line under it all. Great player with little to no holes, the ones that he does have you do have to nitpick a bit to get at them. For me the question mark with Barzal is where does he fall on the scale from a legit #1 C that can compete against the league's best, a "kind of" #1 C that is maybe the top center on a good but not great team, a #1b/#2 on a Cup contender, or a #2 anywhere which would probably be his lower-end of the potential.
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