Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

[thekernel]

Kinda crazy that we're even talking about a 3-horse race at this point. I still think McDavid clutches it out. How cool would it be to see MacKinnon get a point in every home game?

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Kinda crazy that we're even talking about a 3-horse race at this point. I still think McDavid clutches it out. How cool would it be to see MacKinnon get a point in every home game?

Historic. Without checking, it's a record probably held by Gretzky.

 

[Dust]

Historic. Without checking, it's a record probably held by Gretzky.

It is. And if I'm not mistaken they play the Oilers at home to close out the season too. Couldn't write a better script for it.

 

[JLo217]

Yeah, but the remining schedule for Avs seems the easiest.

I'd disagree if you look at the other teams in the West.

 

[McShogun99]

What if Mac breaks Gretzky's home point streak to start a season?

That will pretty much guarantee him the win when you combine that with the season he’s had.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

McDavid 2 more assists.

Nathan has a goal with a period tonight

 

[hamzarocks]

I think Mcdavid could turn Ryan Reeves into a 15+ goal scorer

He is the 3rd best player ever and pronably 2nd best passer after Gretzky. (Lemieux was a worse passer but much better goal scorer than mcdavid)

 

[Laveuglette]

McDavid only 4 pts away from lead and he has a game in hand. Huge considering where he used to be earlier this season

 

[Hockey Outsider]

An update after tonight's games:

• Kucherov: 55% (previously: 17%)
• MacKinnon: 32% (previously: 54%)
• McDavid: 22% (previously: 37%)
• Pastrnak: <1% (no change)

A lot has changed since I last posted ten days ago. Kucherov is now the favourite for the Art Ross trophy. He's scored 11 points in the past three games. MacKinnon and McDavid have both played well objectively, but have lost ground relative to the Bolt.

Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid are all virtually certain to reach 120 points (barring injury). Pastrnak has about a 7% chance (previously: 6%).

Probability of reaching 130 points:

• Kucherov: 98% (previously: 64%)
• MacKinnon: 93% (previously: 91%)
• McDavid: 82% (previously: 80%)
• Pastrnak: <1% (no change)

Probability of reaching 140 points:

• Kucherov: 38% (previously: 6%)
• MacKinnon: 22% (previously: 26%)
• McDavid: 16% (previously: 18%)
• Pastrnak: <1% (no change)

Kucherov has about a 1% chance of reaching 150 points (previously: MacKinnon and McDavid each had about a 1% chance).

An update since I posted last week - Kucherov remains the narrow favourite for the Art Ross, but McDavid (4 points back, with one game in hand) is only a couple of percentage points behind. This has been fueled by McDavid's five consecutive 2+ point games. Here are the current odds:

• Kucherov: 42% (previously: 55%)
• McDavid: 40% (previously: 22%)
• MacKinnon: 27% (previously: 32%)

I'm not going to bother showing Pastrnak or Panarin anymore. They have less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning the Art Ross.

McDavid is at 119 points. Once he reaches 120 (which he will, barring a season-ending injury), this will be the first time since 1996 that the league featured three 120+ point scorers (Lemieux, Jagr and Sakic).

Probability of reaching 130 points:

• Kucherov: 99% (previously: 98%)
• McDavid: 99% (previously: 82%)
• MacKinnon: 98% (previously: 93%)

Probability of reaching 140 points:

• Kucherov: 42% (previously: 38%)
• McDavid: 41% (previously: 16%)
• MacKinnon: 30% (previously: 22%)

Kucherov and McDavid both have a 1% chance of reaching 150 points.

 

[Video Nasty]

For those who don’t remember, this thread was created the day that McDavid and the Oilers turned it around (11/24).

They’ve gone 38-11-3 since then, while McDavid has dished out 83 assists and collected 103 points in those 52 games.

Another 24th of note: McDavid was behind in the scoring race by a season high 22 points to MacKinnon on 1/24 (trailed Kucherov by 20). He has trimmed it to just 4 points for both, while still having a game in hand on Kucherov and 2 games in hand on MacKinnon.

McDavid won’t be stopped from claiming his 4th Art Ross in a row and 6th overall.

By the way, here’s a page one classic:

Mcdavids not scoring 110 never mind 120

 

[CokenoPepsi]

For those who don’t remember, this thread was created the day that McDavid and the Oilers turned it around (11/24).

They’ve gone 38-11-3 since then, while McDavid has dished out 83 assists and collected 103 points in those 52 games.

Another 24th of note: McDavid was behind in the scoring race by a season high 22 points to MacKinnon on 1/24 (trailed Kucherov by 20). He has trimmed it to just 4 points for both, while still having a game in hand on Kucherov and 2 games in hand on MacKinnon.

McDavid won’t be stopped from claiming his 4th Art Ross in a row and 6th overall.

By the way, here’s a page one classic:

I think he'll run out of games.

Kucherov and Nathan just have big 4-5 point games whenever he has gotten close

 

[Video Nasty]

I think he'll run out of games.

Kucherov and Nathan just have big 4-5 point games whenever he has gotten close

Fair enough. They’ve been phenomenal this season, but they way I see it is that they very likely need 145 to beat him.

I see McDavid getting there, but not them.

If Kucherov has another quiet game tomorrow night, it’s going to get very interesting in the short term.

 

[olli]

I hope all 3 tie

 

[Ivo]

I think he'll run out of games.

Kucherov and Nathan just have big 4-5 point games whenever he has gotten close

I thought the same, but now he’s gotten so close and has a game in hand on Kucherov and two games in hand on MacKinnon. My money is on McDavid to win it.

 

[22FUTON9]

Imo hope I’m wrong but Mack sort of blew his chance tonight. Felt like he needed to have a big game against these weaker opponents to gain some ground

 

[bobholly39]

MacKinnon - 10 games left. NYR, NSH, CLB, MIN, EDM, DAL, MIN, WIN, VEG, EDM
Kucherov - 11 games left. BOS, NYI, DET, TOR, MTL, PIT, CLB, OTT, WSH, BUF, TOR
McDavid - 12 games left. LA, ANA, STL, DAL, COL, CAL, VEG, PHX, VAN, SJ, PHX, COL

In bold are the very easy games (bottom feeders)
Underlined are the easy games (out of playoffs, not quite bottom feeders)
Regular font are playoff teams, or teams still in playoff race

A bit subjective where I draw the line of playoff race or not - ie Colorado plays Wild twice, but didn't underline them. Still, it's pretty evident MacKinnon has the hardest schedule of the 3.

McDavid - 4 very easy games (ANA,PHX,SJ,PHX) + 1 easy game (CAL)
Kucherov - 3 very easy games (MTL,CLB,OTT) + 2 easy games (PIT,BUF)
MacKinnon - 1 very easy game (CLB) that's it.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I hope all 3 tie

Between the NHA/NHL, PCHA/WCHL and WHA we've never had a three way tie.

NHL had two way ties in 1962, 1980, and 1995. PCHA had a tie in 1921. WCHL had a tie in 1925. WHA never had a tie.

So 5 ties in the ~140 seasons of major pro hockey, but never a three way tie.

Would be neat to see.

 

[Paddyjack]

MacKinnon - 10 games left. NYR, NSH, CLB, MIN, EDM, DAL, MIN, WIN, VEG, EDM
Kucherov - 11 games left. BOS, NYI, DET, TOR, MTL, PIT, CLB, OTT, WSH, BUF, TOR
McDavid - 12 games left. LA, ANA, STL, DAL, COL, CAL, VEG, PHX, VAN, SJ, PHX, COL

In bold are the very easy games (bottom feeders)
Underlined are the easy games (out of playoffs, not quite bottom feeders)
Regular font are playoff teams, or teams still in playoff race

A bit subjective where I draw the line of playoff race or not - ie Colorado plays Wild twice, but didn't underline them. Still, it's pretty evident MacKinnon has the hardest schedule of the 3.

McDavid - 4 very easy games (ANA,PHX,SJ,PHX) + 1 easy game (CAL)
Kucherov - 3 very easy games (MTL,CLB,OTT) + 2 easy games (PIT,BUF)
MacKinnon - 1 very easy game (CLB) that's it.

I don't think you should label easy games using simply bottom feeders. What you are looking for is the ability to score points, not to win games....

You should look at their defensive abilities as a team instead. A team like TB may look much difficult than Montreal however defensively they get scored about the same (245 vs 235 GA). In comparison, Florida is at 177.....

 

[Macheteops]

I don't think you should label easy games using simply bottom feeders. What you are looking for is the ability to score points, not to win games....

You should look at their defensive abilities as a team instead. A team like TB may look much difficult than Montreal however defensively they get scored about the same (245 vs 235 GA). In comparison, Florida is at 177.....

Agreed. Hard not to call NYI and DET easy games in terms of putting up points. They're both bottom 10 in most GA

 

[bobholly39]

I don't think you should label easy games using simply bottom feeders. What you are looking for is the ability to score points, not to win games....

You should look at their defensive abilities as a team instead. A team like TB may look much difficult than Montreal however defensively they get scored about the same (245 vs 235 GA). In comparison, Florida is at 177.....

That doesn't really change much though. Bad teams allow a lot of goals.

SJ/CLB/MTL/ANA/OTT - 5 teams I had labeled as "very easy" are all bottom 7 in league in goals against. The only team that gains ever so slightly is Phoenix whose still 10th worst in goals against.

Agreed. Hard not to call NYI and DET easy games in terms of putting up points. They're both bottom 10 in most GA

We'll see if NYI can bridge the gap to playoffs, but Detroit is pretty much 9th now. They're one of the most desperate teams to win games in the league right now. True they allow a lot of goals, but it's probably going to be a tough opponent from here on out.

Either way though - even if you want to add NYI or DET or others to the list of easy/very easy - the primary point is MacKinnon definitely has the hardest shcedule of the 3. He doesn't play any easy teams outside of CLB, the one time.

 

[Melrose Munch]

McDavid hasn't even scored 30 goals and he still might win.

Maybe we were wrong - Kucherov and MacKinnon need another 4+ point game to keep him away.

 

[tfwnogf]

Nathaniel must be holding his breath watching McDavid catch up these last few games, he's been quiet lately

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Imo hope I’m wrong but Mack sort of blew his chance tonight. Felt like he needed to have a big game against these weaker opponents to gain some ground

I don't think it matters when you're that good.
He's had multi-point games against very good teams all season.

 

[Macheteops]

I don't think it matters when you're that good.
He's had multi-point games against very good teams all season.

He's going to get his points but as another poster pointed out he likely has the hardest schedule and the least amount of games too. He does have the tie-breaker. Should be a fun finish with EDM/COL playing each other couple times

 

[Kerberos]

McDavid needs another 9-points-in-2-games explosion like he's done a couple of times this season for me to be convinced of his chances. If the Oilers could somehow go into their final 2 games with the division still with-in reach, that would help also.

It is impressive how he bridges the gap back to a manageable amount every time Kucherov and MacKinnon go insane though.