Post-Game Talk: Nice of You To Show Up For 20 Minutes Leafs Win 6-3

Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
27,450
21,883
I’ve noticed that he has bad starts, but he is much more consistently recovering from them lately vs before. There is measurable improvement there.

I don’t know why so many are pretending that the HDSC the Leafs had were in any way equivalent to anything the Oilers got, other than to slag the goalie at the first opportunity. We are talking goals that were basically tap ins because of the circus play of the group in front, with our leadership group (Nurse and McDavid in particular) leading the charge in that respect. I have no idea how you could call any of the goals that went in on him as “routine.” That’s frankly an agenda driven narrative.

I have zero problem calling out bad goaltending when I see it, I just think it’s asinine to pin that game on him.
Absolutely. The first one was a bang bang play in front, where the guy was completely unchecked 5 feet in front. The 2nd was a perfect deflection on a PP by one of the most skilled players in the league. the 3rd was a gong show Chinese fire drill with players all over the place while a couple Leafs played tick tac toe in front of him. I think it was possible for him to make a save on goal#4 and #5, but they would have had to be outstanding saves. He wasn't at his best, but to dump this all on him is probably the dumbest take you can have.

Read on X that it was a" coaching and training staff decision" to scratch Kane and that he wanted to play through it. Never the full story the first time and I'm not blaming the poster. These media types are s***
Yah, I think it's becoming obvious that there is something wrong with Kane physically that he's been trying to play through and gutting it out. You can see the frustration in him, as it's affecting so many parts of his game. Of course, with all the ex-NHL players and doctors posting on here, I'm sure they will disagree with any assessment by the team and their medical staff.
 

iCanada

Registered User
Feb 6, 2010
18,961
18,426
Edmonton
I’ve noticed that he has bad starts, but he is much more consistently recovering from them lately vs before. There is measurable improvement there.

I don’t know why so many are pretending that the HDSC the Leafs had were in any way equivalent to anything the Oilers got, other than to slag the goalie at the first opportunity. We are talking goals that were basically tap ins because of the circus play of the group in front, with our leadership group (Nurse and McDavid in particular) leading the charge in that respect. I have no idea how you could call any of the goals that went in on him as “routine.” That’s frankly an agenda driven narrative.

I have zero problem calling out bad goaltending when I see it, I just think it’s asinine to pin that game on him.

We've got objective measures from different models of how good scoring chances are - they're called expected goals.

Multiple different independent models agree that the leafs did not significantly out chance the Oilers in the first two periods. One says it would expect the leafs to score 2.0 times and the oilers to score 1.5 times. The other says it would expect the leafs to score 2.0 times and the Oilers to score 1.7 times.

These models change scoring chances into expected goals to quantify how good scoring chances are objectively. Different models that different effects into account, but generally the factors considered average out all goals scored over large sample sizes and take into account a crap load of variables - who shot it, from where, what happened before the shot happened (ie breakaway vs one timer vs contested shot vs all alone in the slot with time), whether the defense contests the shot, the goaltenders relative change of position, is it 5on5 or PP etc.
 

K1984

Registered User
Feb 7, 2008
13,734
13,069
We've got objective measures from different models of how good scoring chances are - they're called expected goals.

Multiple different independent models agree that the leafs did not significantly out chance the Oilers in the first two periods. One says it would expect the leafs to score 2.0 times and the oilers to score 1.5 times. The other says it would expect the leafs to score 2.0 times and the Oilers to score 1.7 times.

These models change scoring chances into expected goals to quantify how good scoring chances are objectively. Different models that different effects into account, but generally the factors considered average out all goals scored over large sample sizes and take into account a crap load of variables - who shot it, from where, what happened before the shot happened (ie breakaway vs one timer vs contested shot vs all alone in the slot with time), whether the defense contests the shot, the goaltenders relative change of position, is it 5on5 or PP etc.

Ok, great.

I saw the Oilers with 0 empty net tap in chances, and the Leafs with several.

Not sure if the models pick that up or not.
 

iCanada

Registered User
Feb 6, 2010
18,961
18,426
Edmonton
Ok, great.

I saw the Oilers with 0 empty net tap in chances, and the Leafs with several.

Not sure if the models pick that up or not.

No, the models don't pick out that Skinner has exceptionally bad lateral movement and therefore it is really easy to create back door tap ins on him.

That is my point entirely - If anyone but Skinner is in net those chances aren't free goals. Therefore, the problem isn't that our defense is bad, it is that our goaltender is.

Does that make sense?
 

GOilers88

#DustersWinCups
Dec 24, 2016
14,412
21,231
In Skinners last 15 starts 8 times he's under .900 save %. Despite playing for a club where his backup is rocking .921 save % .

The Oilers dominate games and have been for months but its impossible to do that forever. There are games where your opponent will get their chance share, These are quality teams and players that can generate it.

The weirdest thing on the Oilers board is that people will readily blame some of the best players on Earth and yet will defend an average goalie (Skinner) unconditionally.

Sure the team didn't have their best game but there is no way that the run of play was suggesting 5-0. Even the telecast was saying that and crediting one of the goalies for making stops.
Like I said, he's inconsistent. But he also has stretches where he looks really good. I don't buy that he can't level out or improve. If I'm wrong so be it, but I'm willing to give him more than one single season in which he again was better than league average, as a rookie. If people want to live and die by 12 playoff games, go ahead we'll have to agree to disagree.

Last season
League Average 2.94/.903
Skinner 2.75/.914

This season
League Average 2.91/.903
Skinner 2.65/.905
 

K1984

Registered User
Feb 7, 2008
13,734
13,069
No, the models don't pick out that Skinner has exceptionally bad lateral movement and therefore it is really easy to create back door tap ins on him.

That is my point entirely - If anyone but Skinner is in net those chances aren't free goals. Therefore, the problem isn't that our defense is bad, it is that our goaltender is.

Does that make sense?

Pretty much nothing you have said at any point in this thread makes any sense, including your point.
 
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Behind Enemy Lines

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
15,099
15,964
Vancouver
I mentioned it earlier - a colleague of mine is a STH in Lethbridge and this isn't a new problem for Skinner - he told my essentially he was great if he escaped the first 5 minutes of the game without a GA.

It's largely true too - you can largely tell whether tell have a good game or a poor game off just the first 5 shots. If one of those goes in usually he'll have a sub .800 night regardless of what the scoring chance numbers look like.
Aside from your anecdotal comment from a friend, Skinner had a solid WHL career beginning with grabbing the starter's job at 16 on a mediocre Lethbridge team. His numbers were 43 games, 3.69 GAA and .909 SV% against an age 20 and 19 veterans who were 4.3 GAA and .892 SV% and 4.3 GAA and .881 SV%. Skinner at 16 played double the games than the two veterans. The team had a -102 goal differential. Lethbridge was a trainwreck franchise before Skinner arrived missing the playoffs 5 years in a row.

Skinner's numbers improved next season along with the last to first Lethbridge team playing 44 games, 2.73 GAA and .920 SV%. Third year on a good team he jumped to 60 games, 3.26 GAA and .905 SV%. His numbers slipped a bit in fourth year, before being a critical pick-up by Swift Current who he backstopped all the way to a Memorial Cup

  • Skinner in Lethbridge regular season: 31gp, 3.38 .897
  • Skinner in Swift Current regular season: 25gp, 2.68 .914
His .905 overall save percentage ranked him No. 10 among goalies with 25 or more appearances in 2017-18 WHL games. His postseason save percentage (.932 save percentage in 26 games) was a key element in Swift Current’s run to the WHL championship and participation in the Memorial Cup tournament.

A 4 year WHL starting goaltender is exceptionally rare. Skinner came in a won the starter's job and then moved to be a critical piece to drive Swift Current to the Memorial Cup. Context matters.

Skinner's an imperfect goaltender as all are. But he's met each challenge with success and has been forced to sink or swim on a Cup window team because the high paid free agent veteran wilted. Skinner should be building his NHL game and experience as a developing back-up but instead is at the tip of the spear of an aggressive offensive team that often slips on a banana in its commitment to team defending. Sure the Oilers tip the ice the right direction but when they slip from their defensive structure this team gives up exceptionally tasting scoring chances against.

Skinner's more than met expectations at every level since junior. It's an organizational fail that they bet big money and term on Jack Campbell to carry this team's goaltending through this precious winning window.
 

Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
27,450
21,883
Its funny how any goalie we put in against quality opponents ends up playing better than Skinner whether that be Campbell last playoffs or Pickard now. Its kind of unusual for a back to be better, and run better numbers virtually everytime he's out there.

One goalie gave up 5 in 2 periods. The other shut the door. Not for the first time, this has been something notable SINCE the playoffs last season.

People don't want to look at the actuality that by and large the Oilers don't give up a ton. Skinner gave up 5 goals on 8 scoring chances. This team plays complete periods in games where they barely give up anything. For instance last Skinner start he lets in 3 goals in 2 periods and the opponent doesn't even get a scoring chance in third.
How did Pickard look tonight?:D
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
46,161
56,782
Canuck hunting
I’ve noticed that he has bad starts, but he is much more consistently recovering from them lately vs before. There is measurable improvement there.

I don’t know why so many are pretending that the HDSC the Leafs had were in any way equivalent to anything the Oilers got, other than to slag the goalie at the first opportunity. We are talking goals that were basically tap ins because of the circus play of the group in front, with our leadership group (Nurse and McDavid in particular) leading the charge in that respect. I have no idea how you could call any of the goals that went in on him as “routine.” That’s frankly an agenda driven narrative.

I have zero problem calling out bad goaltending when I see it, I just think it’s asinine to pin that game on him.
I said our goaltending is routine. Not the chances allowed. Just for clarity.

WHOOOOOOOAAA THERE BIG FELLA

Im saying GM 6 max


where?
53$ in NS


where?
53$ in NS


That McMann is a good hockey player. Never heard of him before
Anybody else calls it Superstore liquor store. Literally never heard of somebody calling it RCSS. Didn't know what the poster meant either.
 

Spawn

Something in the water
Feb 20, 2006
43,660
15,159
Edmonton
Like I said, he's inconsistent. But he also has stretches where he looks really good. I don't buy that he can't level out or improve. If I'm wrong so be it, but I'm willing to give him more than one single season in which he again was better than league average, as a rookie. If people want to live and die by 12 playoff games, go ahead we'll have to agree to disagree.

Last season
League Average 2.94/.903
Skinner 2.75/.914

This season
League Average 2.91/.903
Skinner 2.65/.905

Oilers are 11th of 16 playoff teams in team sv%.

Skinner's goaltending is good enough to get us to the playoffs. It's not good enough to win us a cup.
 

GOilers88

#DustersWinCups
Dec 24, 2016
14,412
21,231
Oilers are 11th of 16 playoff teams in team sv%.

Skinner's goaltending is good enough to get us to the playoffs. It's not good enough to win us a cup.
Well the rest of the team will have to pick up their socks then.
 

Oilers in NS

Registered User
Oct 11, 2017
12,040
11,608
I said our goaltending is routine. Not the chances allowed. Just for clarity.


Anybody else calls it Superstore liquor store. Literally never heard of somebody calling it RCSS. Didn't know what the poster meant either.
Not fair, we r professional drinks in NS and we have to pay big time to enjoy our past time of drinking. U can get a 60 pack in Kebec for 60-75$

I bought 2 cubes... sale only lasts until Tuesday.
already into my 2nd 2-4...wife isn't happy.
They r never happy. Why do they think we drink?
 

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