This is the beauty of PROJECTIONS. Both sides could be correct. Now, taking each sides projection, I would say the NHL's asusmption of 3% growth is extremely reasonable given the REDUCTION of the TV contract and post lockout problems.
Now, and this is the crux of the whole thing. The PA still hasn't made anything close to their best "free market" offer. There needs to be a consistant, always usable way for owners to reduce the salary of RFA's should their performance warrent it. There needs to be a more sever, lower threshold luxury tax (the PA's offer tax threshold was 65% of league revenue, WAAY, WAAAYY too high). The PA, if they want there current system, truly need to offer meaningful system conscessions, and not the window dressing they did last week. There ideas are good, but, as in the NHL offer, there implementation left much to be desired.
So, after Christmas, I expect the PA to do something along the following lines:
1 - Luxury Tax
- 20% starting at 35 Million
- 50% starting at 40 Million (escelating 10% a year for consecutive years over this amount)
- 100% over 50 Million (escelating 20% a year for consecutive years over this amount
2 - QO
- Either reduced compensation (but still matchin rights) for QO bellow 100% (say 75% QO has max compensation of 2 first round picks instead of 5 for a 100% QO)
or
- QO of owner taking player to arbitration. If the player is underperfoming, then this should reduce there contract substantially
3 - Rookie Cap
- Same as before, except shrink the number of top 15 bonuses to points, goals, GAA and sv%, along with a standard ice time bonus for anything over 15 minutes, 20 minutes and 25 minutes. Also Cap the top 15 bonuses to triple the base amount of $850,000 (so no more than $2.55 million.
4 - Automatic CBA exit clause/ player salary rollback
Either the CBA can be cancelled by the owners or a salary rollback to 56% of revenue if player salaries exceed 65% of revenue at any time during this CBA
Now, until the players make a serious offer based on not having guaranteed linkage (and I understand why they are hesitant for true linkage), we ain't going nowhere. And so far, the PA has had good ideas in its proposals, but nothing that is going to entice the owners to negotiate off of the linkage hill. Something along the lines above may get the owners off that hill and negotiating, but not the minor change offer the PA presented last week.