Why do you think it's unlikely that the lower numbers are attributable to social distancing?
Social distancing was already built into these models. As mentioned earlier, the most logical conclusion to draw is that the virus is not quite as lethal as they originally projected in their models, understandable given how little data was available. With hospital and ICU admissions consistently running well below projections, there will come a time very soon when governments will need to shift to Phase 2, which is isolating the sick, protecting the vulnerable, and ramped up testing and tracing. (Some will argue that we could have skipped directly to Phase 2 without the economic and social chaos caused by the lockdowns, but I digress.) If this crisis has done anything, it has at least highlighted the shockingly poor conditions in some seniors homes, and how important it is to get our act together as a society on that front. (Prediction - some people in Quebec are going to jail over that cluster@#@# at the seniors homes there, and rightly so.)
We are now entering the tail end of the, "Oh my God, we are all going to die" stories. As each day passes, and the number active cases continues to decline and hospital admissions run well below projections, the pressure to ease restrictions and start getting back to a state of normalcy will increase. Governments can't make decisions in complete isolation - the staggering economic and social cost of the lockdowns will come into play more and more.
Bottom line - State and Provincial governments start declaring victory towards the end of April, with businesses re-opening and schools starting to back in early May. Sports won't be far behind either - as sports start to return in Europe and Asia, the pressure will be on to have them resume here also. The wildcard here is travel - it's hard to predict when restrictions on travel, borders, etc. will start to ease, although once local restrictions lift those will lift also. (Seeing travel resume within Europe will make it easier to start it up here also.)
