Pre-Game Talk: NHL Expansion Draft (6-18-17 - 6-21-17) VGK Selects James Neal

[Mortiest Morty]

I don't think Neal's bad defensively. He's actually pretty decent defensively, average at worst. He's also a really good forechecker and plays physical. His problem is that he's a bonehead sometimes, especially when it comes to penalties. And please, don't use +/-. Neal was also far away the highest + on the team in 15-16... He even got some Selke votes that year, think he finished top 20.

 

[Walrath]

I don't think Neal's bad defensively. He's actually pretty decent defensively, average at worst. He's also a really good forechecker and plays physical. His problem is that he's a bonehead sometimes, especially when it comes to penalties. And please, don't use +/-. Neal was also far away the highest + on the team in 15-16... He even got some Selke votes that year, think he finished top 20.

Yea my bad forgot about that

Just think that he isn't really jelling with other players on the ice (except Fiala), I am just so afraid that he gets a juicy deal (6-7AAV over 4 or 5 years) then turns invisible. Honestly haven't been sold on Neal... Hopefully Neal is protected and has a 40 goal season

 

[Mortiest Morty]

If Neal had a decent playmaking center, he'd be a complete and total lock for 30 goals (barring injury). Last time he came up for a contract he had just scored 40 goals and 81 points in 80 games and signed a VERY reasonable deal. I'll be extremely upset if Poile exposes him in the expansion. It's just completely idiotic to even consider it in my opinion.

 

[predfan24]

That may wind up being true, but at this point there is simply no way to know right now. He certainly showed some tremendous upside in the playoffs. Again, there are numerous examples of guys who far exceed what they are projected to be- last year at this time anyone who said Arvidsson was going to be a top line 30 goal scorer would have been laughed off the board.

Numerous? I would say more like rare. Arvy is a rare case. In cases where it does happen it's usually European or Russian players where their stats aren't impressive due to a limited role on a men's league team. The large majority of time you can accurately predict a player's potential, particularly offensive potential, by their development. This is especially true in NA players. Colton was never a dominant offensive player through junior or the AHL. His stat lines in those leagues show he is a decent goal scorer and the eye test has shown that you've true. But a second line center? I'd put good money that is not going to happen. He never hit PPG on junior until his third season and even then he was fourth in points on his team. In the AHL he seemed to be good for 25ish goals and around .5 PPG. Not bad but not top six NHL material. He will more than likely top out as a bottom six guy who averages around 12 goals a year. 15 in a good year. 10 or less in bad years.

 

[predfan24]

If Neal had a decent playmaking center, he'd be a complete and total lock for 30 goals (barring injury). Last time he came up for a contract he had just scored 40 goals and 81 points in 80 games and signed a VERY reasonable deal. I'll be extremely upset if Poile exposes him in the expansion. It's just completely idiotic to even consider it in my opinion.

Agreed, even though Nealer didn't have the best playoff teams that are successful need scoring on the second line and beyond. Neal provided that even without a legit 2C. If he is willing to sign a reasonable deal he needs to be kept around. Only pure goal scorer on the team besides Forsberg.

+- isn't the best stat in the world to analyze a player with in the first place. It's even worse when using it to analyze a winger.

 

[Walrath]

If Neal had a decent playmaking center, he'd be a complete and total lock for 30 goals (barring injury). Last time he came up for a contract he had just scored 40 goals and 81 points in 80 games and signed a VERY reasonable deal. I'll be extremely upset if Poile exposes him in the expansion. It's just completely idiotic to even consider it in my opinion.

Ok so I did some thinking and looked into Neals stats in Pit and Dal and the first thing is this guy sure is unlucky his first healthy seasons seems to be last year. Second is that the Pit PP of 2011-2012 sure looks lethal good that he wasn't on Pit this year and had a similar PP. Third is that I agree on Neal should be protected if we can find a playmaking centre or he gives signals that he will accept a hometown discount (~5M AAV). If we can't find a playmaking centre Neal will continue on with the trend of the later portions of the season. Or if Fiala or Kamanev takes a big step forward and are able to playmake the crap out of that second line.

 

[Predsboro]

Agreed, even though Nealer didn't have the best playoff teams that are successful need scoring on the second line and beyond.

It came out today at the final media availability that Neal has been playing with a broken hand. I remember him taking a really nasty slash early in the playoffs ... can't remember which round. That could explain his less than stellar playoff run as far as scoring.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

A lot of this discussion is predicated on the assumption that Arvy produces at the same rate he was able to this past season (Neal, Forsberg and Johansen have done it enough to be proven values by this point). If we lose Neal and Arvy pulls a Craig Smith, we're in pretty deep trouble and that becomes some awful asset management in hindsight.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

The only reason you move Neal is if you have to clear out cap space for a center... but then... if we got a center we would want him feeding someone like Neal. Mind boggling.

We have 16M in cap space assuming

Arvy gets 4-5M
Joey gets 6-7M
Watson gets 1M or less
Aberg gets 1M or less

That only leaves us with around 2-4M left in cap excluding Fisher. We really need one of Wilson or Smith to go to Vegas in order to have enough cap space for second line center.

 

[token grinder]

The only reason you move Neal is if you have to clear out cap space for a center... but then... if we got a center we would want him feeding someone like Neal. Mind boggling.

We have 16M in cap space assuming

Arvy gets 4-5M
Joey gets 6-7M
Watson gets 1M or less
Aberg gets 1M or less

That only leaves us with around 2-4M left in cap excluding Fisher. We really need one of Wilson or Smith to go to Vegas in order to have enough cap space for second line center.

Unless Arviddson is signing a 5-6 year deal-which would be nuts after 1 good year, I would expect him to end with a 3 million dollar deal-probably 2-3 years.

Johansen is going to be 7.5-8. He may be willing to accept less, but he is also a franchise center and there will be some PA pressure to get fair market value.

Aberg you are spot on.

Watson I could see a little more than 1M. A little more but not much.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

The only reason you move Neal is if you have to clear out cap space for a center... but then... if we got a center we would want him feeding someone like Neal. Mind boggling.

We have 16M in cap space assuming

Arvy gets 4-5M
Joey gets 6-7M
Watson gets 1M or less
Aberg gets 1M or less

That only leaves us with around 2-4M left in cap excluding Fisher. We really need one of Wilson or Smith to go to Vegas in order to have enough cap space for second line center.

The Preds have 17.23 mil in cap space. Signing Johansen, Arvidsson, Watson, Aberg and Fisher puts them at 14 forwards and 7 D-men. Even after they lose one to expansion they'll still have a full roster with a couple guys in the AHL that might be deserving of a shot, so bringing anyone in probably necessitates moving someone out.

 

[Jonesey]

I've updated my GM mode here.

This is without the expansion draft and before free agency (aka just resigning our players)

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/354392

Free Agent Signings
UFA YEARS CAP HIT
Fisher, Mike 1 $2,000,000
RFA YEARS CAP HIT
Watson, Austin 2 $1,000,000
Johansen, Ryan 8 $8,000,000
Arvidsson, Viktor 2 $3,000,000
Aberg, Pontus 2 $900,000

 

[MrJoshua]

I've updated my GM mode here.

This is without the expansion draft and before free agency (aka just resigning our players)

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/354392

Free Agent Signings
UFA YEARS CAP HIT
Fisher, Mike 1 $2,000,000
RFA YEARS CAP HIT
Watson, Austin 2 $1,000,000
Johansen, Ryan 8 $8,000,000
Arvidsson, Viktor 2 $3,000,000
Aberg, Pontus 2 $900,000

I could see something like that, yeah. Next off-season, when Ellis is eligible to be extended, is going to be pretty interesting. Then Josi comes up for extension the season after that.

Then it looks like the only way another top-six forward could be added would be for Wilson or Smith to be moved, really.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

The Preds have 17.23 mil in cap space. Signing Johansen, Arvidsson, Watson, Aberg and Fisher puts them at 14 forwards and 7 D-men. Even after they lose one to expansion they'll still have a full roster with a couple guys in the AHL that might be deserving of a shot, so bringing anyone in probably necessitates moving someone out.

According to Cap Friendly we actually have 16.5

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/predators

That includes the buyouts to Nystrom and Stalberg (2.7M combined). Now granted, Petterson probably won't make the team, so you can remove him (which gets you to the 17.2M number you posted).

Knowing that our defense and goalie situations are set in stone (unless something truly bizarre/unexpected happens) really the forwards are probably going to see some changes. Etc year. We have too many wingers who are NHL ready and not enough centers.

I don't think Fisher comes back next year, but maybe not. He would have to sign for a discount.

Honestly, I don't think the expansion draft could've come at a better time for us. It will allow us to lose one of our tweener wingers (freeing up cap space) to potentially go after a second line center. All this coming off the heels of a Stanley Cup Finals appearance and loads of positive media attention. Could really work to our advantage.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

Fisher will be back, nearly 100% in my opinion. Poile has said multiple times that he hopes Fisher keeps playing for multiple years and that he's welcome in Nashville until he's ready to retire. Fisher himself said in December that he wants to keep playing. He'll be here next year and I don't think he'll give a big discount either, probably 3 or 3.5 million.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

 

[Legionnaire11]

That's what we're not talking about either. Sending a pick over for GMGM to take Wilson or Smith instead of Neal, Krok or the kids.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I wouldn't bring back Fisher for 3.5m for 3 years. No way no how. Waaay to much term.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

That's what we're not talking about either. Sending a pick over for GMGM to take Wilson or Smith instead of Neal, Krok or the kids.

Unless it's a low pick, I don't see the point. Jarnkrok is a center and has a better two-way game but like the others is very mediocre offensively. Based on the last 3 seasons, I'd rather take any of Smith, Wilson, Sissons, Aberg in the playoffs.

 

[drwpreds]

I wouldn't bring back Fisher for 3.5m for 3 years. No way no how. Waaay to much term.

Agree but is anyone suggesting 3 years??? I don't even think Fisher wants 3 years. It will be one year, max- if he even comes back at all.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

I wouldn't bring back Fisher for 3.5m for 3 years. No way no how. Waaay to much term.

Okay... who said they would? It'll be year-to-year from here on out, I'd guess.

 

[Persona5]

The more I think about it the more I really don't want to lose Sissons out of any of the players that we could lose. There is no question that the sample size is small but it is the only time he has been given the chance to shine and he did. He produced while playing against Gezlaf and Malkin standing over the dot across from him in most cases.

There is no question it could be an anomaly. Thing is it could be a sign of things to come. Who would have thought Arvy would do what he did this season and we didn't even have a glimpse of that being a chance. With Sissons we do. He should have had a goal in game 6 and very easily could have had a second but Murray made a great save on his breakaway chance.

It would just be a major downer to have him go to Vegas and turn into something special. While it probably won't happen it could happen as we have seen him shine when he was given an opportunity to play with and against top lines in the NHL.

 

[hoosierpred]

I could see something like that, yeah. Next off-season, when Ellis is eligible to be extended, is going to be pretty interesting. Then Josi comes up for extension the season after that.

Then it looks like the only way another top-six forward could be added would be for Wilson or Smith to be moved, really.

I certainly want to see Wilson moved and, though more reluctantly, i would also move Smith if losing both help bring in a legitimate playmaking center. Wilson has had ample time to develop as the net front presence guy that this team desperately needs and has not come through. I think a change of scenery is in order for him. Smith just needs to spend all summer working on his shot and I think he could still improve. If we want an elite center, i think it likely that we would have to lose one of our top 4 defensemen. I think it would come down to Ellis or Eckholm and it is a brutally difficult choice.

 

[Soundgarden]

I agree, I think it's time to move on from Wilson, he's so frustrating, but I can see him being a good guy for Vegas.

 

[drwpreds]

I certainly want to see Wilson moved and, though more reluctantly, i would also move Smith if losing both help bring in a legitimate playmaking center. Wilson has had ample time to develop as the net front presence guy that this team desperately needs and has not come through. I think a change of scenery is in order for him. Smith just needs to spend all summer working on his shot and I think he could still improve. If we want an elite center, i think it likely that we would have to lose one of our top 4 defensemen. I think it would come down to Ellis or Eckholm and it is a brutally difficult choice.

I am not saying I agree with it, but there are some in the hockey world who say, gun to our heads/have to lose one of our defensemen- it should be Josi.

Again, not me saying that, but some do.......