Pre-Game Talk: NHL Expansion Draft (6-18-17 - 6-21-17) VGK Selects James Neal

[Mortiest Morty]

Posted in the other thread about Jarnkrok. It's because our C situation. Jarnkrok is overvalued because of our lack of a true #2C. We've got RyJo and a bunch of bottom 6 guys.

That still doesn't make sense to me. Given the same linemates and opportunity I think Sissons would do just as well as Jarnkrok. Maybe slightly better offensively and probably slightly worse defensively, but no big difference. Between Fisher and one of Jarnkrok/Sissons, the 3rd and 4th center spots are set. Even if Fisher retires (which he won't), you still have Gaudreau and honestly, finding a 4C isn't that tough. Jarnkrok is a terrible 2C, we saw that all postseason, so why would we lament losing him? Would I like to keep him? Sure. But someone has to go in the expansion draft and I just don't see him as a big loss.

 

[Armourboy]

Sissons I feel like you could make a reasonable argument to want to keep. Jarnkrok wasn't anything special, and I'm a guy that generally she's his value.

Now Poile may know Fisher is retiring and it's making him think differently, but Neal would still be someone you trade, not expose.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Said before and I'll say again that I would have no problem losing Jarnkrok because Sissons and maybe Gaudreau can do everything he can do anyways.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

BTW, Daunic was on the radio here yesterday and was openly wondering whether the Preds should go 7-3-1 and make a deal with Vegas to not take whichever D-man we would leave unprotected in that scenario.

As he's saying this I'm thinking to myself do you have any idea how much it would cost us in a trade to make Vegas take say Watson or Aberg over say Ellis? It was just so mind numbingly stupid that I couldn't believe he was actually saying it.

 

[LCPreds]

Yeah, like many, I also became enamored with Sissons thanks to his playoff performance. I also remember Nystrom had a 4 or 5 goal game that one time.

 

[Drake744]

We might want to pump the brakes on Sissons and Gaudreau.

 

[Predsboro]

BTW, Daunic was on the radio here yesterday and was openly wondering whether the Preds should go 7-3-1 and make a deal with Vegas to not take whichever D-man we would leave unprotected in that scenario.

As he's saying this I'm thinking to myself do you have any idea how much it would cost us in a trade to make Vegas take say Watson or Aberg over say Ellis? It was just so mind numbingly stupid that I couldn't believe he was actually saying it.

Plus after all the crap GMGM has taken over the Forsberg for Erat + deal, makes me wonder if he'd even consider doing Poile a "solid." LOL

 

[PredsV82]

BTW, Daunic was on the radio here yesterday and was openly wondering whether the Preds should go 7-3-1 and make a deal with Vegas to not take whichever D-man we would leave unprotected in that scenario.

As he's saying this I'm thinking to myself do you have any idea how much it would cost us in a trade to make Vegas take say Watson or Aberg over say Ellis? It was just so mind numbingly stupid that I couldn't believe he was actually saying it.

not that its stupid on the face of it, its just that Poile needs to have the deal in place before submitting the list, and if Vegas wouldn't take something reasonable, then you scrap the plan and go 8-1. If a deal is in place, it would be one where both we and Vegas agree on exactly who is being picked, and so it wouldn't matter if we went 7-3-1 or 8-1

 

[PredsV82]

We might want to pump the brakes on Sissons and Gaudreau.

Gadreau is on an ELC so hes not exposed.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

We might want to pump the brakes on Sissons and Gaudreau.

If you're talking about me... I think if Sissons got ~15+ minutes per game with Neal and Wilson as his most common linemates AND got to play PP he could put up 30 points just like Jarnkrok. You don't? I mean that's not exactly some great feat. And I only said Gaudreau could be an option at 4C, which isn't exactly tremendous praise.

 

[Drake744]

Gadreau is on an ELC so hes not exposed.

Oh okay thanks. I'll be sure to slap my buddy in the head then.

If you're talking about me... I think if Sissons got ~15+ minutes per game with Neal and Wilson as his most common linemates AND got to play PP he could put up 30 points just like Jarnkrok. You don't? I mean that's not exactly some great feat. And I only said Gaudreau could be an option at 4C, which isn't exactly tremendous praise.

I'm not talking about you I'm talking about in general. Sissons has impressed me and obviously Gaudreau has a fairy tale start to his career but I don't think we've seen enough to pencil them in as contributors. Sissons I could probably give you. Hell, I'm not even completely sold that Aberg can be a steady producer. Just trying not to jump the gun.

 

[Armourboy]

I just don't see the value in exposing anyone to save what are basically two 3C's and a prospect in Aberg. You sure as heck don't protect Wilson or Smith so I'm not sure what the tough decision would be.

I get centers are valuable, but more valuable than a top Dman or a 30 goal scorer, yeah no.

 

[Persona5]

Neal has scored 77 goals over the past 3 season. (1 year left at 5M)

Smith has scored 56 goals over that same period. (3 years left at 4.25M per)

Wilson has scored 38 goals in that time period. (2 years at 4M per)

Jarnkrok has scored 38 goals in that same time. (5 years at 2M per)

Sissons has scored 20 goals in that time period. (2 years at 625K per and remains RFA)

Age of the players comes into play as well. Neal will be 30 before next season starts. Smith and Wilson are both currently 27. Jarnkrok is 25 and Sissons is 23. Sissons is the only one I personally feel has a good bit of upside still. He has never been given a chance to play top line minutes until these playoffs and he really took advantage of it. If I were Vegas he is the player I would want most out of these guys for sure. As for who the Predators protect I really think we will be losing Jarnkrok or Sissons. I really don't think Vegas would take Neal over either of those players because of his age and contract.

If I had to choose between losing Sissons or Jarny I would choose to keep Sissons. I'm hoping we can somehow keep them both though.

 

[Persona5]

If you're talking about me... I think if Sissons got ~15+ minutes per game with Neal and Wilson as his most common linemates AND got to play PP he could put up 30 points just like Jarnkrok. You don't? I mean that's not exactly some great feat. And I only said Gaudreau could be an option at 4C, which isn't exactly tremendous praise.

I really think Sissons could do even better than that. I see him as being in the same mold as Fisher. Has that same two way game and goes hard to the net and is able to pick up pucks and put them in. I could see him being a 18 goal/25 assist type of player that also plays very strong defense.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

That still doesn't make sense to me. Given the same linemates and opportunity I think Sissons would do just as well as Jarnkrok. Maybe slightly better offensively and probably slightly worse defensively, but no big difference. Between Fisher and one of Jarnkrok/Sissons, the 3rd and 4th center spots are set. Even if Fisher retires (which he won't), you still have Gaudreau and honestly, finding a 4C isn't that tough. Jarnkrok is a terrible 2C, we saw that all postseason, so why would we lament losing him? Would I like to keep him? Sure. But someone has to go in the expansion draft and I just don't see him as a big loss.

I think Jarnkrok sealed the deal on being nothing more than a 3C this post-season and when you kept hearing the names of Sissons, Aberg, Watson, etc... standing out for the elevated play, he wasn't one of them. No doubt he'd be an asset going forward but I'm also pretty content if he's the guy taken.

 

[predfan24]

I will forever fondly remember what Sissons did for the team this playoff. That being said if we should be so fortunate that VGK takes him that will be a huge win. Kid has some ability but he isn't a sure fire NHLer to me yet. He will never be a 2C.

 

[tampa pred]

I think Jarnkrok sealed the deal on being nothing more than a 3C this post-season and when you kept hearing the names of Sissons, Aberg, Watson, etc... standing out for the elevated play, he wasn't one of them. No doubt he'd be an asset going forward but I'm also pretty content if he's the guy taken.

After these playoffs, I agree with you. Kroks lack of size and strength got exposed against STL and ANH. With Sissons and Gaudreau stepping up, I feel like we can cover the loss of Krok; especially if Poile can pull off a trade for a legitimate 2C.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

I will forever fondly remember what Sissons did for the team this playoff. That being said if we should be so fortunate that VGK takes him that will be a huge win. Kid has some ability but he isn't a sure fire NHLer to me yet. He will never be a 2C.

I mean, Sissons scored more goals in game 6 of the WCF than Jarnkrok scored in the entire playoffs (and one of Jarnkrok's goals was an empty netter where all he had to do was outskate Bouwmeester.)

I'd honestly be more upset losing Sissons than Jarnkrok. Sissons can do everything that Jarnkrok can do but is bigger, better on faceoffs and cheaper for the next couple of years at least.

 

[predfan24]

I mean, Sissons scored more goals in game 6 of the WCF than Jarnkrok scored in the entire playoffs (and one of Jarnkrok's goals was an empty netter where all he had to do was outskate Bouwmeester.)

I'd honestly be more upset losing Sissons than Jarnkrok. Sissons can do everything that Jarnkrok can do but is bigger, better on faceoffs and cheaper for the next couple of years at least.

I'm not going to lose sleep over losing either one but I prefer Jarnkrok's hockey smarts and reliability over Sisson's finishing ability. Don't trust Colton as much with his two way game. Jarnkrok is more proven as well. Considering neither one will be more than 3C I lean towards Jarny personally. Though I admit it's not cut and dry and certainly up for debate.

 

[Walrath]

Well this is my first post, been a fan of Nashville for a while (chrismas 14-15 season) but decided that I should sign up on HF today.

So lets start with why I think that the loss of Neal is a big deal. Well getting a 2C to go with him and Fiala is the dream, getting two scoring lines with good centres (never happend). Then we would for sure be contenders. But...

when we look at stats Neal is bad defensively and when I say bad he is our worst +/- guy. I know a lot of people don't like +/- but when it comes to a team for a season I think it is a useful stat as it states GF/GA and it is nice if all on your team are +. Now I know some may say yes but with better centers he would score more. But the issue is wouldn't opponents score more on us as well? He has been playing with Fisher, Jarnkrok or Johansen for a good portion of the season and most potential 2C are for sure worse defensively. So at the moment Neal has a negative impact on GF/GA and I know he had a bad season. He costs us 5M and may cost more in a year to keep, while Jarny costs us 2M. In a no cap era Neal is the sure protection in my opinion but is Neal really more valueable to us than Jarnkrok or Sissons?

I think it sucks that we loose a forward, but lets be honest it would be a lot worse if we could only protect 3D.

 

[luckofirish8]

I don't think Watson is eligible (surprisingly enough). (EDIT: he actually is eligible)

Jarnkrok deals is reasonably cheap and long enough that if it doesn't pan out pretty early in Vegas they could very likely turn around and trade him for another asset.

 

[Osprey]

Exposing Neal wouldn't be smart simply because he has so much value. If you can't re-sign him, then he becomes a trade chip at next year's trade deadline, perhaps the biggest prize available to would-be contenders, and one of them will likely give up a 1st-round pick for a scorer of his caliber.

To me, the thing about Sissons is that he really stepped up in the playoffs and came up big on multiple occasions when the team desperately needed it, especially when the star players couldn't get anything going. Jarnkrok, on the other hand, seemed to fade away when the team needed him to step up. Maybe it's a fluke or maybe Sissons is on the verge of a breakout. This playoff success of his could be just the thing to give him confidence to be a bigger contributor next season. I sure would hate for him to take his new confidence to Vegas and, coupled with the great opportunity there (confidence + opportunity is a deadly combination), have a season that makes us all wish that he were still on the Preds.

BTW, Daunic was on the radio here yesterday and was openly wondering whether the Preds should go 7-3-1 and make a deal with Vegas to not take whichever D-man we would leave unprotected in that scenario.

As he's saying this I'm thinking to myself do you have any idea how much it would cost us in a trade to make Vegas take say Watson or Aberg over say Ellis? It was just so mind numbingly stupid that I couldn't believe he was actually saying it.

I don't see it that way because Ellis' value is a red herring. If Poile had no choice but to expose Ellis, then he'd have to pay through the nose to dissuade Vegas from picking him, but Poile can protect him by going 8+1. That means that Ellis wouldn't really be available to Vegas in the first place and that the side deal would be to take, say, Smith (who'd be exposed even in a 7+3+1 scheme) over Sissons or Jarnkrok (who'd be exposed in an 8+1 scheme). Of course, you could simply just do 8+1 and make the same deal to have Vegas take Smith, so I don't see an advantage to what Daunic proposed, but I don't see a disadvantage, either. It's just another way to arrive at the same side deal (ex. to take Smith instead of Sissons or Jarnkrok).

 

[Preds Partisan]

Jarnkrok can get you to the playoffs, but he probably won't help you win in the playoffs. That seems obvious to everyone, right? I would acknowledge that regular season value and go from there when analyzing his worth to the team.

 

[drwpreds]

I will forever fondly remember what Sissons did for the team this playoff. That being said if we should be so fortunate that VGK takes him that will be a huge win. Kid has some ability but he isn't a sure fire NHLer to me yet. He will never be a 2C.

That may wind up being true, but at this point there is simply no way to know right now. He certainly showed some tremendous upside in the playoffs. Again, there are numerous examples of guys who far exceed what they are projected to be- last year at this time anyone who said Arvidsson was going to be a top line 30 goal scorer would have been laughed off the board.

 

[Armourboy]

Well this is my first post, been a fan of Nashville for a while (chrismas 14-15 season) but decided that I should sign up on HF today.

So lets start with why I think that the loss of Neal is a big deal. Well getting a 2C to go with him and Fiala is the dream, getting two scoring lines with good centres (never happend). Then we would for sure be contenders. But...

when we look at stats Neal is bad defensively and when I say bad he is our worst +/- guy. I know a lot of people don't like +/- but when it comes to a team for a season I think it is a useful stat as it states GF/GA and it is nice if all on your team are +. Now I know some may say yes but with better centers he would score more. But the issue is wouldn't opponents score more on us as well? He has been playing with Fisher, Jarnkrok or Johansen for a good portion of the season and most potential 2C are for sure worse defensively. So at the moment Neal has a negative impact on GF/GA and I know he had a bad season. He costs us 5M and may cost more in a year to keep, while Jarny costs us 2M. In a no cap era Neal is the sure protection in my opinion but is Neal really more valueable to us than Jarnkrok or Sissons?

I think it sucks that we loose a forward, but lets be honest it would be a lot worse if we could only protect 3D.

You can look at pretty much every 30+ goal scorer in the league and they are generally going to be weak defensively. Part of what makes them deadly is the fact even when playing defense they are trying to figure out how to make a play out of it.

There exceptions of course, but most of those guys are making 9-10 million a season.

The team as whole was down this year when it comes to something like +/-. He was also injured for a pretty good stretch and he didn't really have a good center to get him the puck either.

You get rid of Neal, you better have someone coming in that you know is going to bring you 25-30 goals a year.

So yes he is more valuable than Jarnkrok or Sissons.