The team has earned one last year to compete. Also, the 2017 draft is looking like straight garbage as of now. So in my ideal world:
Let Polak, Spaling, Zubrus, Tennyson, and Haley walk.
Trade Dillon, Karlsson, and Wingels to recoup picks (2nds/3rds). In particular, I see absolutely 0% chance Wingels is still on the team come October.
Re-sign Hertl to a two or three year deal, whatever money he wants. Comparables: Bjugstad ($4,100,000), Lee ($3,750,000), Toffoli ($3,250,000), Huberdeau ($3,250,000), Coyle ($3,200,000).
Resign Nieto to a one or two year deal around $1.5M and resolve that he shouldn't be playing anywhere but the 4th line unless there are injuries.
If there is money and his ask isn't unreasonable, re-sign Reimer. If it is, then find a real actual NHL backup. Do NOT simply hand the job to Troy Grosenick or Aaron Dell.
Trade for Brendan Smith out of Detroit. I've discussed with Wings fans and they're amenable to either our 2016 2nd or to Joakim Ryan as return. Personally, I don't think Ryan will ever get a shot in the NHL here and I want him to succeed (and Detroit's a great place for a small Swedish PMD to develop), so I'd be okay with it. Smith certainly seems on the outs with the Wings' coaches and front office, but he's actually a very good player. He's an elite skater and a solid puck mover. He could anchor the third pair as well as providing the ability to move up the lineup if Martin falters. He's a much better LHD option than anyone in the system, and makes less than Dillon does right now. 27 years old means he's entering his prime too.
Give DeMelo the third pairing RHD spot. Not only has he earned it on the merit of his play, but he is a good compliment to Smith's style.
If Marleau still wants out, move him for whatever. That said, do not take back a cap dump. If that means retaining some of Marleau's salary, do so, but do not take wasted money back.
If Marleau goes, softly pursue Loui Eriksson in FA. Definitely don't overpay for him but if his ask is reasonable (and it should be considering the nearly flat cap), go for it. The Finals trip will make us a more desirable signing destination, one would think.
I know offersheets aren't a thing that people do, but there are some very interesting names out there. Ryan Strome, Kevin Hayes, and Mike Hoffman are forwards I would love to acquire, whether by offersheet or by trade. Ryan Strome is a player I would go after hard. I truly think he is a borderline #1C right now. We have our 2017 1st and 2017 3rd, meaning we could offersheet someone in the range of $3,652,659 to $5,478,986. I'd be happy handing Ryan Strome $5M for three years. But again, unfortunately people don't do offersheets, which is just dumb as hell.
Make no one in the whole organization untouchable, just to see if anyone severely over-values our players. That's just smart business.
A player I would seriously look at trading is Chris Tierney. His value is likely inflated and he's young and cheap, so someone will likely be willing to overpay for him. He's not a good enough #3C for a Sharks team with ambition, but he's also kind of a waste on the 4th line when there are always cheap #4C's around in free agency and we also have Ryan Carpenter whom I think could do the job well. Whether we trade him for futures (a late 1st?) or for an "equivalent" winger from a team who thinks more highly of him, we would maximize the talent of our team by trading him.
Either move Hertl to C or find a real Cup-caliber #3C. As we've found out the hard way, neither Marleau nor Tierney is a good enough #3C for this team. Mikael Backlund would be a great option, but failing that I don't hate Peter Holland as a cheap option and last resort.
Lastly, go bargin hunting for a quality 4th line veterans. Someone like Matt Cullen. Zubrus was good for his role, but I want someone who is a high-end 4th liner.
Have camp be a true free for all for the forwards. Anyone, no matter their age or draft status or NHL experience should honestly be able to earn a spot, and veterans, with the exception of Thornton, Pavelski, and Couture, should not be complacent.
A minimalist skeleton, including only current assets (aka things I would set in stone to begin every attempt at roster building, assuming no one offers me something I cannot possibly turn down for one of these players):
XXX-Thornton-Pavelski
XXX-Couture-Donskoi
XXX-Hertl-Ward
Nieto-XXX-XXX
XXX
Vlasic-Braun
XXX-Burns
XXX-DeMelo
XXX
Jones
XXX
- I think there is a 99% chance Martin is still around, but I wouldn't not put his name out just to see if anyone wanted him.
- The LW1 spot would be open competition between kids like Meier and Goldobin, unless we aquired a player for that role (ie Mike Hoffman) or acquired a real #3C and so Hertl remained there.
- The LW2 spot would likely be given to Marleau, assuming he sticks around, but would be open for kids like Meier or Goldobin to grab from him. If we managed to sign a UFA like Eriksson, there's where he would slot. Keep in mind that Donskoi can play LW too so if the right player for that duo were actually a RW, it wouldn't be a problem.
- The LW3 (or RW3, given that Ward can play either wing) spot would additionally be open to anyone, in theory, so not limited to Meier or Goldobin but also, in theory, given to Sorensen or LaBanc or Carpenter or whoever honestly earns it. Or alternatively, a B-caliber UFA like Lee Stempniak wouldn't be a bad idea.
- As mentioned, I would like to acquire Brendan Smith, so he would be the LHD3 spot.
- The 7th D can be Heed, Ryan, Mueller, whoever earns it. Failing that, there are a gazillion cheap #7D out there.
- For a backup, obviously Reimer is ideal. But I admit I feel more confident about Jones after this playoffs, when he has been very solid. Otherwise, Kari Ramo, Anton Khudobin, Jonas Enroth, etc. would be fine cheaper options.
- I strongly believe Nik Goldobin should be on the roster in a scoring role for the full season next year. He's definitely shown the offensive chops and from all accounts he's become a more responsible player. I want to say that Meier is NHL-ready, but probably not for the role I want him in. I'm thinking a 50/50 AHL/NHL split, a la William Nylander this year, would be best, assuming he performs well enough in the AHL to warrant a call-up.
- I am really interested to know what Eric Staal will command on the open market. He had a horrible playoffs and was never a good fit with NYR, but I honestly still think pretty highly of him. If he'd take a 4 year (or less) deal for an AVV of $4M or less, I'd scoop him up.
- If we keep Marleau, I wouldn't hate moving him down to #3LW. He'd still play #1PP and minor PK duties, could play #3C in a pinch or move up the lineup in case of injuries
A hyper realistic, yet Jux-influenced full roster:
Goldobin-Thornton-Pavelski
Marleau-Couture-Donskoi
Stempniak-Hertl-Ward
Nieto-Tierney-Goodrow
Vlasic-Braun
Martin-Burns
Smith-DeMelo
Jones
Enroth
My ideal summer, semi-realistically and specifically:
Let Roman Polak, Nick Spaling, Danius Zubrus, Matt Tennyson, and Micheal Haley walk.
Brenden Dillon for a 2nd/3rd (to Colorado, Buffalo, Boston, Vancouver, etc.)
Melker Karlsson for a 3rd (to Buffalo, Colorado, Carolina, New Jersey, etc.)
Tommy Wingels for a 2nd (to Calgary, Boston, Colorado, Edmonton, Columbus, etc.)
Chris Tierney for a late 1st
Re-sign Tomas Hertl @$3.5M, 2 years (bridge deal)
Re-sign Matt Nieto @$1.5M, 1-2 years
Re-sign Dylan DeMelo @$1M, 2 years
Re-sign Ryan Carpenter @$1M, 1-2 years
Acquire Brendan Smith for Joakim Ryan (or 2016 2nd)
Offersheet Ryan Strome @$5M for 3 years (giving up 2017 1st and 2017 3rd)
Sign Jason Chimera @$1.5M for 1 year (although it might take more)
Sign Jonas Enroth (or whoever) @$1M 1 year
Logan Couture/Tomas Hertl - Joe Thornton - Joe Pavelski
Joel Ward - Tomas Hertl/Logan Couture - Joonas Donskoi
Nikolay Goldobin - Ryan Strome - Patrick Marleau
Matt Nieto - Ryan Carpenter - Jason Chimera
some 13th forward (Barclay Goodrow?)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic - Justin Braun
Paul Martin - Brent Burns
Brendan Smith - Dylan DeMelo
Tim Heed
Martin Jones
Jonas Enroth
That's $72,191,668 in cap space. Cap will be around $73M I think. I'm sure we could shave around the edges if need be.
The major fixes here are: the third line is now a high-end 2nd line, potentially; the third pairing is MUCH better. These are the two biggest issues. Additionally, the 4th line is better. And that's a team of ++skaters with the exception of the first line (which we know works) and Ward.
Out: Polak, Spaling, Tennyson, Zubrus, Haley, Dillon, Karlsson, Wingels, Reimer, Ryan or 2016 2nd for Smith, 2017 1st and 2017 3rd for Strome
In: Goldobin, Strome, Chimera, Smith, Heed, Enroth, Carpenter, 2nd/3rd for Dillon, 3rd for Karlsson, 2nd for Wingels
Signed: Hertl for three more years, Strome for three more years, Nieto for 1-2 more years, Chimera for a year, Carpenter for 1-2 years, Enroth for a year
Picks: LOL (basically over the next three years we'd have our 2018 1st, our 2016 2nd (if Ryan is the Smith return), Detroit's 2017 3rd, a bunch of 4th-7th rounders, and then any picks we manage to get from Dillon/Karlsson/Wingels)
Call-ups: Meier, Sorensen, Mueller
'Future' pieces-
Top-6 forwards: Hertl, Donskoi, Strome, Goldobin, Meier + Couture/Pavelski.
Top-4 D: none under 27 except maybe DeMelo (I think it's possible) or Heed, but Vlasic and Braun are both under 30 and Burns should play for a while longer.
The 2018 entry draft looks incredible so far. Obviously it's two years away but it's not too early to take that into consideration. Keep our 2018 1st, and then deal with potentially "re-building" in the summer of 2017, depending on how the 2016-2017 team does.
