I say Ovechkin, he was already more NHL ready than say Kovalchuck after his draft year and now with another year of maturing being around some of the best, he is the best bet right now. Not to mention he will most likely see alot of playing time in Washington (hard to judge what players they will bring in, but I can't imagine they will try to hinder the potential of making Ovechkin the teams star).
Malkin and Vanek are in the same boat, both will see good playing time, Malkin more than anyone will have had the biggest boost from an additional year of maturing and filling out, but AO is still my run away favorite.
Kari is the no-brainer for a goalie nominee, would have been their starter this year, now he gets to lead the team next year and should do very well.
Phaneuf and Suter are the obvious defense choices, although if any defensemen wants to win the award they will have to put up some serious numbers. This wont be a Jackman type year where the forward nominees are less than stellar, they will really have to stand out. I don't think Phaneuf will be able to being a 6th (maybe 5th at best) d-man in Calgary with little to no PP time and Suter won't be looked on to contribute as much as say Hamhuis was so I don't think he'll make a big splash either.
Its going to go to a forward, AO, Malkin and Vanek being the big 3 to look out for. Who knows, it could even be Sidney Crosby.