Rumor: New York Post: Flyers taking run at Max Pacioretty

[jabba2]

I fully understand the issue with finding a #1 D. I don't know if that is in Morin's future. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. Here is a list of top 10 picks for D from 2004-2010:
2004
Barker, Smid & Valabik
2005
J. Johnson, Lee & Bourdon
2006
E. Johnson
2007
Hickey, Alzner & Ellerby
2008
Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo & Schenn
2009
Hedman, Ekman-Larson & Cowen
2010
Gudbranson & McIlrath

That's 19 D and most of the guys that are actually considered #1 D were taken top 5. To me, he isn't close to a guarantee. Meanwhile Pacioretty is a proven NHL first line winger.

The other thing that makes so little sense to me is the guys being listed as D prospects are all likely 3-5 years away from being impactful for the Flyers. Giroux & Voracek are now in their prime. Couturier is almost there. The team up front looks pretty good and Mason is playing well too. I know the glaring issue that should be addressed is on D, but sitting and waiting years for prospects to address it seems like a total waste of what could be a very good team.

And I don't think the price is as outrageous as some suggest. It probably is going to take a bit more than Bobby Ryan's return, but that is because MP is locked up. The Canadiens have a huge deficiency in grit/size in their forwards. When you have 3 quality guys in that mold with Simmonds, Downie and Hartnell, I think one of them would be the primary target in a trade. If Morin was part of the deal, but a defenseman who is NHL ready came back in the package, it makes sense.

Morin will likely be a #2 pairing in the NHL, because his offensive game is not supposed to be high-end or PP capable. But he is a good skater and quick, so there should be alot of minutes in his future. Just not as an Offensive Defenseman, which is kind of what a #1 is.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Him alone is too much, he leads the Phantoms in scoring that has to count for something.

Jason Krog and Darren Haydar lead their AHL club in scoring too.
surely those guys were untradable players.

 

[FlyersFan61290]

Jason Krog and Darren Haydar lead their AHL club in scoring too.
surely those guys were untradable players.

He was joking

 

[healthyscratch]

While he's a nice player, I can't understand why we would be giving up 3 for 1. He's not that good.

 

[kolankosf]

Maybe it's the Montreal media... but I'm not a big fan, and never will be. He'd really have to take the bull by the horns and play hockey like a man, and not a little boy. He may be a "God Send" to the montreal media and fans, but when he gets hit in this market, we're gonna expect him to get up and hammer that guy back. Even Giroux can step up and get nasty, as can any of our forwards.

If we do get him, I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for this leopard to change it's spots.

 

[Fire Tortorella]

Maybe it's the Montreal media... but I'm not a big fan, and never will be. He'd really have to take the bull by the horns and play hockey like a man, and not a little boy. He may be a "God Send" to the montreal media and fans, but when he gets hit in this market, we're gonna expect him to get up and hammer that guy back. Even Giroux can step up and get nasty, as can any of our forwards.

If we do get him, I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for this leopard to change it's spots.

If he can pot 30-35 goals next to Giroux I couldn't give a flying **** whether he was soft or not.

 

[Curufinwe]

The idea that every player on a hockey team needs to be able to dish out physical punishment is poisonous.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Gagne wasn't nasty but boy did I like him alongside Foppa. No one cares if you're physical if you can score 40

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

In the Habs games I watched over the years he seemed to engage physically to me or at least as much as any player who's job title doesn't inquire to be phyiscal at all times. I would actually say he can be pretty reckless out there at times.

Anyway just play along with the he's soft narrative I agree with the people saying they couldn't care less as long as he's putting the puck in the net.

 

[kolankosf]

Then another question to ask is, Why would montreal be willing to trade a proven 30-35 goal 25y/o winger who has the potential to pot 40+? The Hartnell/Schenn/Schenn/2nd deal sounds reasonable. But what would the Canadiens look to ship out 2 solid building blocks for:
a veteran on the decline
a center who hasn't quite shown that he can live up to his hype
a defenseman who had solid early years, but hasn't been evolving with the rest of the players in the league, showing this by "slowing down" at an early age.
and a shot in the dark 2nd round pick?

Personally, I'm a big fan of Luke Schenn and feel that he's earned more than he's given. If we traded Hartnell and any pick after the second round, I wouldn't be heartbroken. Although, Hartsy playing with Simmer and Schenn has kinda seemed to light the fire under his ass. Brayden Schenn, I'm on the fence on because with our luck, when we trade him, he'll turn into a superstar.

I understand where you guys are coming from, and I know that everyone has a role. Not EVERYONE has to be tough, but it really helps when you get to the playoffs and the teams start playing a lot harder. If you're already playing tough, and fighting for the puck, it won't be hard once the competition kicks it into high gear.

I'd give Voracek a bit more time as it appears that he and G are really stating to click now, and his pucks are starting to go in. I'd really like to save these assets for a top pairing D-man in the off season to replace Kimmo.

Thanks for the feedback though guys.

 

[FanHabtic*]

Just some background on MaxPac's physicality... In his first couple full seasons he was very tenacious and physical but reckless. He was given a warning by the league for boarding and then a suspension after injuring Letang with a hit frim behind. He lost his confidence after that suspension and was careful when hitting. This season he started to lay the body again but then boarded Mcdonagh and narrowly escaped suspension again.

The problem with MaxPac is that he has poor judgement when hitting. He's big, fast and strong and when he hits it hurts. But he doesn't know when to let up and that causes problems. So when his confidence is low he lets up completely.

 

[dingbathero]

Even if he is ready to play in the NHL, he is still going to be years away from being a #1. It's a very tough transition to make as a defenceman. Even Seth Jones is not close to being ready to be a #1 and some think he is the best D prospect to emerge in years.

You have a hard on for him too?

Is this why you are defending him NOT being a #1 D man, so you can claim him for Patch?

I think you think we should think what you think about how to think about Morin.

I'm on to you.....

 

[Nash]

You have a hard on for him too?

Is this why you are defending him NOT being a #1 D man, so you can claim him for Patch?

I think you think we should think what you think about how to think about Morin.

I'm on to you.....

You can dose me with Viagra and I still wouldn't have a hard on for Morin.

Here is a very good read that some of you posters should look at:
http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2013/06/defense-defensemen-and-draft.html?m=1

Morin basically has a 1 in 10 shot of becoming a NHL player. Read that article and you might understand why I think it is so nuts to claim he is too valuable to give up for Patches.

 

[BernieParent]

You can dose me with Viagra and I still wouldn't have a hard on for Morin.

Here is a very good read that some of you posters should look at:
http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2013/06/defense-defensemen-and-draft.html?m=1

Morin basically has a 1 in 10 shot of becoming a NHL player. Read that article and you might understand why I think it is so nuts to claim he is too valuable to give up for Patches.

To set context, I'm still quite skeptical about Morin. However, if you recalculate based on Morin's season to date, he's putting up points at a hair above the 0.6 arbitrary cut-off in the blog article, so I think 1 in 10 is selling him quite short. As well, the hypothesis doesn't take into account franchise depth: Morin should be given every chance to get into the Flyers line-up, and stay there, because of his perceived value against a poor defensive depth pool. How much Morin steps up his game and becomes (what we are all dreaming of) a superior top-4
shut-down defenseman who isn't an offensive black hole is entirely up in the air.

And other factors like height and toughness are valued differently by different clubs. We all know the Flyers want a player who can throw his weight around; we heard as much on Flight Plan about young Samuel.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I'm not too worried about Morin's development. 1 in 10 is a bit low if you ask me, but I don't think the guy is a lock to be anything at this point. I think he'll be an NHLer for sure, but from there your guess is as good as mine.

That being said, I'd include him in a deal for Pacioretty depending on what else was in there. He's only 25 and is putting up good numbers in Montreal. I know we all love the thought or Morin being a #1, but at this point, he's not even in the NHL. I think him making the NHL is a safe bet, but him being more valuable than to this team than Pacioretty would be is far from certain. I like the sure thing. I know others don't, but for me, depending on what the rest of the deal was, I'd be more than happy to part with Morin in exchange for him.

 

[Appleyard]

Those figures are skewed massively by putting in all players in top few rounds... guys picked in the 2nd and 3rd are 3-4 times less likely to be impact NHLers than guys drafted in the 1st.

So, when you look at the figures for top 25 picks only from the same datset:

http://thats-offside.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/slicing-and-dicing-re-examining-data-on.html

3/9 > 0.4 in draft year are impact NHLers.
7/17 > 0.6 in draft year are impact NHLers.

That is significantly more than the 1/10 shot stated. More like 1/3 to 2/5.

Morin has scored 24 points in his last 34 Q games though... 0.71 PPG in that time.

He is also at 0.61 PPG this year.

If you look at the best CHL D men now in the NHL.

His numbers post draft year are right in the same range as:

Hamonic (0.70)
Phaneuf (0.69)
Byfuglien (0.68)
Beauchemin (0.68)
Seabrook (0.67)
Alzner (0.60)
Coburn (0.54)
Weber (0.53)
Girardi (0.45)

Letang, Boyle, JBo, Yandle, Doughty, Staal, Wisniewski, Giordano, Letang, Pietrangelo, Keith, Campbell, Hamhuis, Subban, Vlasic and Green are the other CHL produced (ie not just jumped over from another league) d men I reckon are, or could be considered top 60 NHL D men. (I am probably missing one or two.)

So 9/25 scored at a similar or lower rate to Morin so far this year. So 36% of these CHL produced, top 4 D men were scoring at a similar or lesser rate at the same age as Morin.

So 30-40% based off position and round and ~36% based off guys in the NHL and their post draft CHL year. That looks less and less like a 1/10 chance.

The fact Morin skates so well at his size means he is unlikely to not play in the NHL in my opinion. Even if he is only a 5/6... where do you find 6'7 guys who skate that well? Heck, Hal Gill has a job still and he can't skate and has no offence, and never did.

Also:

from 1990-2004 (so 75 players taken in that kind of slot)

11-15: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 50.7%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%

 

[Cuiff]

Id give Simmers, Cus, ghost and a 2nd or Hart, Gus, Cus and a 1st...Problem is neither would get it done. In other words i'm not willing to give up what it takes. I'm only willing to give up real talent for Defense. ...or a real unique offense talent. Im not saying Max P is not a real talent I just believe he does not address the real issue with this team

 

[PALE PWNR]

Morin looked excellent in the preseason games he played in as well against NHL competition. I'd argue he was the best d-man on the ice in the preseason in quite a few of those games. It was better for his development to send him back in my opinion however had we not had the logjam at D that we have, where a player counting over 4 million against the cap is a healthy scratch every night, he would be in the NHL this year, and he'd probably look good too.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Patches fills a need on this team, but holding onto and adding to a legitimate defense prospect pool is a bigger need.

That's what has really bitten this team over the last decade+. Our defense is not cost effective and we have no flexibility there because no one can step in and play

 

[BringBackHakstol]

The Morin/#1 discussion is also not really valid. Even if he ends up becoming a good #2 or #3, having a cost controlled young defensemen with that size would be huge for this organization. Even if he "only" is a Coburn down the road, that's very valuable.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

The Morin/#1 discussion is also not really valid. Even if he ends up becoming a good #2 or #3, having a cost controlled young defensemen with that size would be huge for this organization. Even if he "only" is a Coburn down the road, that's very valuable.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but at the same time, Morin only might ever turn into Coburn (or better). I agree that that scenario would make him a valuable player to this organization, but at the same time, there is IMO just as good a chance that he will not ever be as good as Coburn. With Patches, you get a 25 year old 30 goal scorer. Our defensive pool is thin, and dealing Morin makes it all the more thinner, but at the same time, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Is the potential to have a top pair or top four cheap defenseman worth more than the proven 30 goal scorer locked up relatively long term at a fair price? That's the question you need to ask. To me, I always lean toward the known commodity.

 

[Curufinwe]

Simmonds + Morin is too much.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Flyers D is old and slow, they have 3 guys in the pool that can skate and are young. Those 3 guys are very valuable to the Flyers in trying to modernize this defense and make it cost effective.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Simmonds + Morin is too much.

I think that is about as high as I would go unless something else is coming back from MTL. I'd be shocked if MTL would be willing to do Morin + Simmonds for Patches, but if they are I'd do it. I honestly think that if he is moving it is going to cost way too much.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

I'm not disagreeing with you, but at the same time, Morin only might ever turn into Coburn (or better). I agree that that scenario would make him a valuable player to this organization, but at the same time, there is IMO just as good a chance that he will not ever be as good as Coburn. With Patches, you get a 25 year old 30 goal scorer. Our defensive pool is thin, and dealing Morin makes it all the more thinner, but at the same time, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Is the potential to have a top pair or top four cheap defenseman worth more than the proven 30 goal scorer locked up relatively long term at a fair price? That's the question you need to ask. To me, I always lean toward the known commodity.

It may be a fair price but it isn't the path this organization should be taking.

Let's put it this way, between Morin, Hagg, and Ghost, there should be a very good chance we get 2 NHL defensemen, a good chance that we get 1 top 4 defensemen, a decent chance we get 1 top pairing guy, and a lesser chance we get a #1 defensemen.

As soon as we move one of those guys, those chances drop. If anything, we need to focus on adding to that.

Our defense could be in serious trouble if we don't produce 2 top 4 guys over the next 2-3 years. Once Streit is gone, we are essentially left with Coburn and Schenn under contract that can play in the top 4, and with Schenn that's not set in stone.

I really do not want to see this franchise dip into the free agent pool to sign defenders anymore unless they are going for a bottom pairing guy or a truly elite player (like Suter). That's a recipe for getting stuck with bad contracts and having an underperforming and expensive D

Our forward situation is far more manageable. A scoring winger may be a need, but at least we have players under contract that can play in the top 6.