OT: NCAA Thread v11

[JojoTheWhale]

I don't disagree but if you look at it objectively if Bama loses in OT to UGA who would you pick Bama or the field to win?

I pick Georgia or Bama over the field. But if that's the standard, none of these games matter at all. That can't be right.

If Georgia loses to Tennessee and Bama, it's the same thing to me. You can forgive one game. Not two if you have other viable teams. We have to leave a distinction between a Cincy and a Coastal Carolina if they didn't lose. Those schedules are not the same animal.

 

[Asnito]

Oh snap. MACtion starts tonight.

I hate the MAC but I love college football more so I'm a sucker who will watch.

BTW all that talk at the beginning of the season about how 2nd place would be your highpoint I feel a FG3911 beat down coming.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Yep. They're not getting in even if they run the table. They would need every B10 team to end up with 2 losses and an Oregon loss. Absolute joke.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Ducks at #4. Interesting choice but I'll take it.

They’re just putting them there to protect themselves for now. Oregon will inevitably blow a game and even if they don’t Ohio State’s resume here on out will blow Oregon out of water giving them the ability to jump them.

Cincy being behind Ohio St and Oregon is utterly indefensible. They've played real teams. I don't mind Sparty being #3 at all.

I told you that would happen. They’ll use Cincy as an expanded playoff weapon.

 

[Asnito]

I pick Georgia or Bama over the field. But if that's the standard, none of these games matter at all. That can't be right.

If Georgia loses to Tennessee and Bama, it's the same thing to me. You can forgive one game. Not two if you have other viable teams. We have to leave a distinction between a Cincy and a Coastal Carolina if they didn't lose. Those schedules are not the same animal.

I think the problem Cincinnati is having is Indiana blows and their last 2 games were way closer than they should have been.

They trailed at half to Tulane and they beat Navy by 7 with the difference being a blocked FG returned for a TD. Those two teams are 3-13 on the season.

 

[Asnito]

Yep. They're not getting in even if they run the table. They would need every B10 team to end up with 2 losses and an Oregon loss. Absolute joke.

SMU losing to Houston hurt them but they still have a chance. They play SMU and then Houston in the AAC championship game whose only loss was week 1 against TTU.

 

[Asnito]

They’re just putting them there to protect themselves for now. Oregon will inevitably blow a game and even if they don’t Ohio State’s resume here on out will blow Oregon out of water giving them the ability to jump them.


I told you that would happen. They’ll use Cincy as an expanded playoff weapon.

Ducks win out and they are in. I have faith

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Ducks win out and they are in. I have faith

I do not. We’ve had this discussion though before.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think the problem Cincinnati is having is Indiana blows and their last 2 games were way closer than they should have been.

They trailed at half to Tulane and they beat Navy by 7 with the difference being a blocked FG returned for a TD. Those two teams are 3-13 on the season.

Ohio St has played a terrible schedule and lost their tough game. I'm very glad Oregon was above them because I like the H2H breaking those ties.

Now I'm extremely open to the idea that Minnesota was actually a good win for Ohio St, but I don't think the committee sees it that way. I think they like beating Rutgers by 40. I don't like that trumping the other team being undefeated on a comparable schedule and I never will.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I hate the MAC but I love college football more so I'm a sucker who will watch.

Mid/early-2000s MAC Football was great. They were churning out QBs and high-powered offenses.

BTW all that talk at the beginning of the season about how 2nd place would be your highpoint I feel a FG3911 beat down coming.

If my bets are any indication, the bottom is falling out soon.

 

[Asnito]

Ohio St has played a terrible schedule and lost their tough game. I'm very glad Oregon was above them because I like the H2H breaking those ties.

Now I'm extremely open to the idea that Minnesota was actually a good win for Ohio St, but I don't think the committee sees it that way. I think they like beating Rutgers by 40. I don't like that trumping the other team being undefeated on a comparable schedule and I never will.

I think style points matter. You can't eke out wins against bad teams. OU is the perfect example of this as they are an undefeated Power 5 school and they are behind multiple 1 loss teams.

 

[Asnito]

Mid/early-2000s MAC Football was great. They were churning out QBs and high-powered offenses.


If my bets are any indication, the bottom is falling out soon.

The trophy for the pick-em contest is more valuable than money. The prestige associated with it is life changing

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think style points matter. You can't eke out wins against bad teams. OU is the perfect example of this as they are an undefeated Power 5 school and they are behind multiple 1 loss teams.

Oh they definitely matter. But here are Cincinnati’s margins of victory: 35, 35, 14, 11, 49, 35, 7, and 19. You’ve got exactly one single score game there. They’re not eking out wins.

 

[Asnito]

Oh they definitely matter. But here are Cincinnati’s margins of victory: 35, 35, 14, 11, 49, 35, 7, and 19. You’ve got exactly one single score game there. They’re not eking out wins.

In the sense of 'what have you done lately' they are. I don't want you to think I'm against Cincinnati but being an 'outsider' you need to wow to get in.

They're not out of it yet and a UGA win in the SEC title game will help them. They also need to dominate SMU and Houston.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

In the sense of 'what have you done lately' they are. I don't want you to think I'm against Cincinnati but being an 'outsider' you need to wow to get in.

They're not out of it yet and a UGA win in the SEC title game will help them. They also need to dominate SMU and Houston.

Whatever the excuse this year is will at least be an improvement over last year. “They didn’t play anyone outside of their conference,” in a season where more than half of the P5 didn’t play a non-conference schedule at all. That was art.

 

[Asnito]

Whatever the excuse this year is will at least be an improvement over last year. “They didn’t play anyone outside of their conference,” in a season where more than half of the P5 didn’t play a non-conference schedule at all. That was art.

Let's see what happens. B1G still has a lot of big games left, the ACC is out of it, HC is 100 percent sure Oregon is out and OU is the Big 12's only hope.

Take a deep breath, pour yourself a nice glass of bourbon and have the misses draw you a bath. There's a lot of football left.

 

[Asnito]

Georgia Southern names Helton as head coach

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Whatever the excuse this year is will at least be an improvement over last year. “They didn’t play anyone outside of their conference,” in a season where more than half of the P5 didn’t play a non-conference schedule at all. That was art.

Cincinnati still has a pretty weak strength of schedule this year, with an easier schedule left than all the playoff contenders. You can only beat who you play, so the players are certainly holding up their end of the bargain.

If there are 4 zero or one loss teams when it comes to playoff time, I won't be upset if they're left out. Two of Alabama, Oregon, or Ohio State losing again, though? Throw Cincy in there.

 

[Asnito]

Cincinnati still has a pretty weak strength of schedule this year, with an easier schedule left than all the playoff contenders. You can only beat who you play, so the players are certainly holding up their end of the bargain.

If there are 4 zero or one loss teams when it comes to playoff time, I won't be upset if they're left out. Two of Alabama, Oregon, or Ohio State losing again, though? Throw Cincy in there.

Their SOS is like 100th in the country.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Cincinnati still has a pretty weak strength of schedule this year, with an easier schedule left than all the playoff contenders. You can only beat who you play, so the players are certainly holding up their end of the bargain.

If there are 4 zero or one loss teams when it comes to playoff time, I won't be upset if they're left out. Two of Alabama, Oregon, or Ohio State losing again, though? Throw Cincy in there.

Oregon really does not belong with that group at all. A 1 Loss B10 team should make it too, no matter who it ends up being.



I know it's not a common metric, but here's the creator's blurb on SP+:

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

College football is historically my most profitable sport by a mile. SP+ is a proven money maker over the long haul. It's of course fallible, but we don't have very many predictive public tools that hold up to market scrutiny.

Since their spot on such a list will be controversial, yes I will continue to argue Michigan is underrated by the public based on the season so far. The wheels could still fall of, of course.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Oregon really does not belong with that group at all. A 1 Loss B10 team should make it too, no matter who it ends up being.



I know it's not a common metric, but here's the creator's blurb on SP+:



College football is historically my most profitable sport by a mile. SP+ is a proven money maker over the long haul. It's of course fallible, but we don't have very many predictive public tools that hold up to market scrutiny.

Since their spot on such a list will be controversial, yes I will continue to argue Michigan is underrated by the public based on the season so far. The wheels could still fall of, of course.

Yeah, the PAC12 is shit this year and I've only watched Oregon once, which was beating a team that should be in the playoffs. I didn't do any due diligence on the Ducks.

The B1G has some heavy hitting games left. If Michigan can pip Ohio State, things get messy if Ohio State has just beaten MSU. A B1G team will be in the playoffs, barring a choke job in the B1G championship.

Maybe Cincinnati could sneak in after all even if the schedule plays out with the top teams avoiding future losses, but I doubt the selection committee is using your metrics.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Yeah, the PAC12 is shit this year and I've only watched Oregon once, which was beating a team that should be in the playoffs. I didn't do any due diligence on the Ducks.

The B1G has some heavy hitting games left. If Michigan can pip Ohio State, things get messy if Ohio State has just beaten MSU. A B1G team will be in the playoffs, barring a choke job in the B1G championship.

I'm completely open to the idea that Ohio St is the best team in the country. I'm less confident in them than Georgia or Bama because I think the Ohio St defense is the worst unit of the 6 by a good margin, but risk sliders are not reflective of overall talent levels.

As you said, we don’t have the results from the Big 10 we need to say anything other than there are 3 teams that control their own destinies. I do think Michigan still does.

I also don't think Baylor is dead. And I think Oklahoma gets in if they run the table. I don't care where they are today. If you go worst case and say all of Georgia, Bama, and Ohio St end up with 1 loss, the committee isn't leaving undefeated Oklahoma out in favor of Cincy. If it was any other B12 team besides OK or Texas, then maybe.

Even my ridiculous levels of cynicism don't think they'd take 1 loss ND over two undefeated teams when one of them has a H2H win over ND. Plus you'd have Oklahoma adding 2-3 quality wins between now and the end of the season with Oregon adding 0.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I'm completely open to the idea that Ohio St is the best team in the country. I'm less confident in them than Georgia or Bama because I think the Ohio St defense is the worst unit of the 6 by a good margin, but risk sliders are not reflective of overall talent levels.

As you said, we don’t have the results from the Big 10 we need to say anything other than there are 3 teams that control their own destinies. I do think Michigan still does.

I also don't think Baylor is dead. And I think Oklahoma gets in if they run the table. I don't care where they are today. If you go worst case and say all of Georgia, Bama, and Ohio St end up with 1 loss, the committee isn't leaving undefeated Oklahoma out in favor of Cincy. If it was any other B12 team besides OK or Texas, then maybe.

Even my ridiculous levels of cynicism don't think they'd take 1 loss ND over two undefeated teams when one of them has a H2H win over ND. Plus you'd have Oklahoma adding 2-3 quality wins between now and the end of the season with Oregon adding 0.

As a lifelong fan, I feel like I have to stress that every Oregon win is a quality win, in terms of quality of life, FWIW.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Oregon sucks.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Oregon sucks.

Assault.