Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 4 (Warning in OP)

[Strangle]

It is if you're behind in a game, not at all if you have a lead.

It’s not the best shut down defense, for sure. But I’m really intrigued to see if the leafs can win in transition and hope Anderson plays 60+ games while bailing them out.

Penalty killing shouldn’t be an issue in the regular season, I don’t see the leafs taking many penalties. But it’ll be huge in the playoffs.

I just can’t predict how these changes are going to pan out

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

When does their business day end? I wanna see this thing

Generally if it's not by 5-6 PM EST it's really unlikely for that day. That being said it could be literally any time.

 

[Albi34]

Surprised how many Leafs fan would let Marner walk for 4 first round picks. As an Avs fan no way I'd lose Rantanen for 4 first round picks.

I don't think it's just the picks though. The question is would you rather pay Rantanen 12.5 x 5 or take the 4 first round picks? That's where it gets dicey.

 

[Strangle]

Surprised how many Leafs fan would let Marner walk for 4 first round picks. As an Avs fan no way I'd lose Rantanen for 4 first round picks.

It’s the picks plus the cap space/lack of term for Marner contract.

The whole package means it’s not a sky is falling type of situation

 

[Dekes For Days]

Irrelevant regardless. The entire point is Toronto cannot afford to lose the edge it has over the competition, offense.

Nonstop for the whole year: "Leafs need to trade their offensive depth for defense"

*Leafs make an amazing trade and trade offensive depth for defense"

You: "Toronto cannot afford to lose the edge it has over the competition, offense."

 

[Seanaconda]

Surprised how many Leafs fan would let Marner walk for 4 first round picks. As an Avs fan no way I'd lose Rantanen for 4 first round picks.

They are mad at having to negotiate their young stars the last couple years and are getting grumpy over it . Marner just happens to be the last one

 

[Strangle]

They are mad at having to negotiate their young stars the last couple years and are getting grumpy over it . Marner just happens to be the last one

I think I feel a bit this way, absolutely

When I add in that my perspective as a fan is getting over the bruins hump and the players don’t have that same end in mind there is a disconnect.

I don’t mean that they don’t have that goal in mind on the ice, but off the ice there are different priorities (talking mainly nylander and Marner negotiations)

 

[Martin Skoula]

They are mad at having to negotiate their young stars the last couple years and are getting grumpy over it . Marner just happens to be the last one

Marner's situation is different, none of the others made it about their ego or had their agent call their teammates contracts out.

The anger is probably misplaced, it's his agent and his dad that deserve the brunt of it.

 

[Drew311]

Surprised how many Leafs fan would let Marner walk for 4 first round picks. As an Avs fan no way I'd lose Rantanen for 4 first round picks.

It depends on the cap hit. I think I could stomach 11.5M at the most. You start getting to a point where the value of 4 1st's and the cap space outweigh the impact of Marner. It would be different if we were talking about Marner on a bad team with a low pay roll. In that case you match any offer because the team needs to keep what little talent they have.

If Marner signs an offer sheet and the Leafs don't match, theoretically they could sign a Ferland/Dzingel type for 5M and trade a 1st + prospect for a guy like Zucker. It's not Marner, but you've increased your depth even more. Plus the Leafs still have 7 1st's in 4 years. More currency to either re-stock the cupboard or make trades.

Johnsson - Matthews - Zucker
Ferland - Tavares - Nylander
Hyman - Kerfoot - Kapanen
Micheyev - Spezza - Moore

 

[Kelly]

Surprised how many Leafs fan would let Marner walk for 4 first round picks. As an Avs fan no way I'd lose Rantanen for 4 first round picks.

Really?

Rantanen severely overpaid at 12.5m?

Tied for the highest paid player in the league... Maybe since the Leafs are more cap strapped than the Avs, but I feel like if you were in our shoes you'd feel similar.

I'm just sick of reading about OS and contracts with this team that I just want it to end, I really don't care how it does. Four 1sts + capspace, or Mitch Marner. I just hope it ends this week.

 

[Strangle]

Marner's situation is different, none of the others made it about their ego or had their agent call their teammates contracts out.

The anger is probably misplaced, it's his agent and his dad that deserve the brunt of it.

I’m not mad at Marner at all, I just want him on the team. I am a bit grumpy about how difficult the past two off seasons have seemed in general though

I think other fans might be a bit mad at him though.

 

[Seanaconda]

Marner's situation is different, none of the others made it about their ego or had their agent call their teammates contracts out.

The anger is probably misplaced, it's his agent and his dad that deserve the brunt of it.

Well all three are a bit different , nylander was a holdout , Matthews was given a blank check and now marner and his dad/ agent. The only constant has been Hf speculating on which one will get offersheeted hahah which I assume is tiring

 

[Strangle]

It depends on the cap hit. I think I could stomach 11.5M at the most. You start getting to a point where the value of 4 1st's and the cap space outweigh the impact of Marner. It would be different if we were talking about Marner on a bad team with a low pay roll. In that case you match any offer because the team needs to keep what little talent they have.

If Marner signs an offer sheet and the Leafs don't match, theoretically they could sign a Ferland/Dzingel type for 5M and trade a 1st + prospect for a guy like Zucker. It's not Marner, but you've increased your depth even more and added 50 - 60 goals. Plus the Leafs still have 7 1st's in 4 years. More currency to either re-stock the cupboard or make trades.

Johnsson - Matthews - Zucker
Ferland - Tavares - Nylander
Hyman - Kerfoot - Kapanen
Micheyev - Spezza - Moore

Ugh seeing that Marner is not next to Tavares there really hit me in the pit of my stomach

 

[Muffin]

It depends on the cap hit. I think I could stomach 11.5M at the most. You start getting to a point where the value of 4 1st's and the cap space outweigh the impact of Marner. It would be different if we were talking about Marner on a bad team with a low pay roll. In that case you match any offer because the team needs to keep what little talent they have.

If Marner signs an offer sheet and the Leafs don't match, theoretically they could sign a Ferland/Dzingel type for 5M and trade a 1st + prospect for a guy like Zucker. It's not Marner, but you've increased your depth even more and added 50 - 60 goals. Plus the Leafs still have 7 1st's in 4 years. More currency to either re-stock the cupboard or make trades.

Johnsson - Matthews - Zucker
Ferland - Tavares - Nylander
Hyman - Kerfoot - Kapanen
Micheyev - Spezza - Moore

That top 6 honestly doesn't look very good to me...

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Well all three are a bit different , nylander was a holdout , Matthews was given a blank check and now marner and his dad/ agent. The only constant has been Hf speculating on which one will get offersheeted hahah which I assume is tiring

Don't worry if Marner does sign a new deal, we'll immediately pivot to how the Leafs have mortgaged their future for rental defense men and how can they afford the next season. It's a little ridiculous.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Well all three are a bit different , nylander was a holdout , Matthews was given a blank check and now marner and his dad/ agent. The only constant has been Hf speculating on which one will get offersheeted hahah which I assume is tiring

That's fair, I just think the Marner situation sounds a bit worse than the others.

Nylander and Matthews saying "I think I'm worth this much" and sticking to it is understandable.

Marner's camp saying "I'm worth as much or more than my teammate" is less understandable. It's not about getting an amount of money in line with Marner's services, or an amount of money that has him and his family living comfortably, it's literally just about being top dog on the team. The other two camps never made things as personal as Ferris has.

 

[Drew311]

That top 6 honestly doesn't look very good to me...

That top six has the potenial for 150 - 160 goals. Not many teams can say that.

 

[Kelly]

That top 6 honestly doesn't look very good to me...

What a silly thing to say with a Matthews/Tavares 1-2 punch. That's a really good top six

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Man I sure hope Dubas and Pridham are aware of these “offer sheet” things and are prepared.

 

[Seanaconda]

That's fair, I just think the Marner situation sounds a bit worse than the others.

Nylander and Matthews saying "I think I'm worth this much" and sticking to it is understandable.

Marner's camp saying "I'm worth as much or more than my teammate" is less understandable. It's not about getting an amount of money in line with Marner's services, or an amount of money that has him and his family living comfortably, it's literally just about being top dog on the team. The other two camps never made things as personal as Ferris has.

The first two didn't really need to , nylander was the first and never out performed anyone . Matthews was just given the best contract on the team to sign early , so now we have marner who has arguments for being the best on the team and that's how an agent would negotiate it

 

[Dekes For Days]

“Great underlying metrics” is actually an opinion that is largely contradicted by real evidence.

Untrue, but you just love taking crazy positions against the Leafs, so not surprised.

Where's your cherry-picked graphs and charts this time?

 

[4thline]

If you are dropping the standard from top 2 to top 3 then yes of course it looks better as I see both Barrie and Muzzin as good #3s (ie second pair).

To be honest I think 1-2-3-4 and top pair 2nd pair are bad ways of classifying defensemen. 1-2-3-4 creates distinctions that aren't there, and pairings are objectives, a mix of 2 guys of different skill levels that can get a job done against different competition.

If I had to use #'s/ labels

#'1 / - they can carry the mail against the best with a bottom pair partner, very few in the league
#2/3- Can either drive play offensively or are good enough that one of them + a 4/5 can make a viable top pairing, two of them together makes a damn good top pairing
#4/5 - Can complement a 2/3 to make a viable top pair, can carry a 6/7 to make a viable 2nd pair, two of them makes a damn good 2nd pair
6-7 no explanation need

IMO Rielly/Barrie/Muzzin are all in that 2/3 group, with Dermott & Ceci hopefully emerging as 4/5's. If you add another 4/5 to the group I don't see how it's below average.

Rielly has shown the ability to make a viable top pairing with a 4/5 type.
Muzzin+Barrie would be a viable top pair
Leaving Ceci+ Dermott as a potentially ++ level 3rd pair

 

[Drew311]

What a silly thing to say with a Matthews/Tavares 1-2 punch. That's a really good top six

Plus that 3rd line is comparable to some other team's 2nd line. People are missing the fact that losing Marner would create a deeper line up, and a much better prospect pool (something the Leafs will desperately need soon).

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Surprised how many Leafs fan would let Marner walk for 4 first round picks. As an Avs fan no way I'd lose Rantanen for 4 first round picks.

If Toronto had Matthews and Tavares locked up at cap hits of 5.5 and 6.3, we'd be saying the same thing.

 

[Strangle]

To be honest I think 1-2-3-4 and top pair 2nd pair are bad ways of classifying defensemen. 1-2-3-4 creates distinctions that aren't there, and pairings are objectives, a mix of 2 guys of different skill levels that can get a job done against different competition.

If I had to use #'s/ labels

#'1 / - they can carry the mail against the best with a bottom pair partner, very few in the league
#2/3- Can either drive play offensively or are good enough that one of them + a 4/5 can make a viable top pairing, two of them together makes a damn good top pairing
#4/5 - Can complement a 2/3 to make a viable top pair, can carry a 6/7 to make a viable 2nd pair, two of them makes a damn good 2nd pair
6-7 no explanation need

IMO Rielly/Barrie/Muzzin are all in that 2/3 group, with Dermott & Ceci hopefully emerging as 4/5's. If you add another 4/5 to the group I don't see how it's below average.

Rielly has shown the ability to make a viable top pairing with a 4/5 type.
Muzzin+Barrie would be a viable top pair
Leaving Ceci+ Dermott as a potentially ++ level 3rd pair

I have to think dermott will play with Riley when he’s healthy.

The defense is better than last year, so that’s a bonus

 

[Muffin]

What a silly thing to say with a Matthews/Tavares 1-2 punch. That's a really good top six

All 4 of your wingers scored less than 50 points last year.