Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 4 (Warning in OP)

[DomBarr]

Getting ownership and management on board is one thing, getting Marner to actually sign it is completely different.

umm...that actually makes it sound like Marner took the offer to the Leafs and said match it or I will sign the offersheet.

 

[Strangle]

Morgan Rielly, Tyson Barrie, and Jake Muzzin as our top3? Yeah, I think at an absolute minimum that counts as average. Dermott is top4 ready and can play the right side. We have about 7 different options to play the third pairing left side, one of whom will probably not suck, and Ceci can suck quietly as our #3RD. It will be a little weird while Dermott is out with injury to start the year, but we have a legit #1 (Reilly) and two guys who are great in #2/3 roles (Barrie+Muzzin). It's obviously not the Preds or the Wild's defense, but we're going to have six players slotted in roughly where they belong. We upgraded from Hainsey to Barrie, so yeah, I do think our defense is better.

#1 - Rielly
#2 - Barrie
#3 - Muzzin
#4 - Dermott
#5/6 - Ceci and some guy

I really do not know how anyone could look at that list of players and think that's a below average defense core. Maybe you want to quibble that Dermott should still be a #5, Barrie should be a #3, and I'm optimistic about the third pair, but that's STILL an average defensive group.

I'm not going to tell you that we're going to play insane shutdown defense, or that Tyson Barrie is rock solid in his own zone, but I will happily tell you that's the third best defense in the Atlantic right now, behind your Bruins and the Lightning. At an absolute minimum, it's middle of the pack for the NHL and our offense is still above average by your own words.

If the Leafs don't match an offersheet, they'll be able to take on 10m in cap before the end of the summer, with a big 'ol basket of new draft picks to trade from. You're right, finding a replacement would be critical, but it would hardly be the toughest thing the Leafs have accomplished this week.

Gotta say, I’m picking up what you’re putting down

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

@PatriceBergeronFan

So who's the top pairing guy?

The 9th highest scoring dman over the last 3 years
The 11th highest scoring dman over the last 3 years
The 31st highest scoring dman over the last 3 years, who is also a + level defensive guy

Rather weak arguments.

Rielly of course is the top pairing defenseman.

Are we arguing Krug is a top pairing defenseman now as well?

Irrelevant regardless. The entire point is Toronto cannot afford to lose the edge it has over the competition, offense.

 

[BruinsBtn]

umm...that actually makes it sound like Marner took the offer to the Leafs and said match it or I will sign the offersheet.

I'd imagine that's how it goes frequently. That's why people who say 'offersheets never happen' don't understand that offersheets still can have a big impact.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He doesn't have great underlying statistics. The Athletic has an entire article breaking it down. Tulloch: Breaking down the strengths, weaknesses and overall...

"It’s fair to say that Barrie isn’t as great as his point totals or microstats indicate (he doesn’t strike me as a No. 1 defenceman), but I also think it’s fair to say his 5-on-5 impact isn’t as poor as the regression models indicate (I don’t think he’s a No. 4 defenceman). That leaves him somewhere in the middle, a No. 2 or No. 3 depending on how you measure performance at the defence position."

He does have great underlying statistics. It's been posted multiple times.
I can't read that site because it's blocked, so I can't look over the methods they use.

But even they admit he is a top-pairing defenseman.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

TIL 2nd round playoff team Colorado's #1D, who has averaged 22 min a night (over 24 this playoffs, 5 more than next closest defenseman) and averaged a pace of 65 points per season over the last 2 years playing against tough competition and having great underlying statistics, is a 2nd pairing defensemen.

What?

(I like Barrie and I think his underlying statistics don't do him justice, but saying he has great underlying statistics is absurd.)

 

[Marshy]

Dubas signs Marner to 11.5 X 5 AAV --> HFBoards: Stupid Dubas! He is ruining the league with his inflated RFA contracts!!!

Bergevin/Lou/Shero OS to Marner for 12.5 X 5 ---> HFBoards: Great move to handcuff the Leafs and improve their team!!!

 

[Dekes For Days]

Right... everything Toronto touches turns to gold. I forgot....

Those are the facts. Just because everything Toronto touches doesn't turn to garbage like you hope, it doesn't mean they turn to gold. It just means they stay the same.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

When does their business day end? I wanna see this thing

 

[Muffin]

Dubas signs Marner to 11.5 X 5 AAV --> HFBoards: Stupid Dubas! He is ruining the league with his inflated RFA contracts!!!

Bergevin/Lou/Shero OS to Marner for 12.5 X 5 ---> HFBoards: Great move to handcuff the Leafs and improve their team!!!

Difference is Marner is already on the Leafs, those teams are poaching a player instead of re-signing one.

 

[Seanaconda]

Dubas signs Marner to 11.5 X 5 AAV --> HFBoards: Stupid Dubas! He is ruining the league with his inflated RFA contracts!!!

Bergevin/Lou/Shero OS to Marner for 12.5 X 5 ---> HFBoards: Great move to handcuff the Leafs and improve their team!!!

Like there are a lot of different opinions on this board . You're gonna get both

 

[Strangle]

Number 1 option here is signing Marner for $10m or less.

Number 2 option is making the cap space and compensation work if you can’t

Number 3 option is trying to hit a home run trade with Marner

 

[Marshy]

Difference is Marner is already on the Leafs, those teams are poaching a player instead of re-signing one.

That's not the only difference.

 

[flying v 604]

It's not about replacing Marner. It's about the overall team left behind. Spending that money on Ferland/Williams/Girardi would leave a team with

2x Point per game franchise C's
1x 60+ point capable winger
5x 20g/ 40 p wingers
1x 40 point 3C

2x 60p top pair OD
1x 40p top pair two way D
1x top 4 DD

That's still a very strong team.

You are way overvaluing your team. 2 60 point D? not gonna happen, only so much minutes and points to go around. There is no promise that Kap and AJ perform at that pace, Nylander is a huge wildcard and Muzzin isnt getting 40 points.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Rather weak arguments.

Rielly of course is the top pairing defenseman.

Are we arguing Krug is a top pairing defenseman now as well?

Irrelevant regardless. The entire point is Toronto cannot afford to lose the edge it has over the competition, offense.

Morgan Rielly was on the ice for 92 even strength goals against last season. Krug 54.

 

[Marshy]

Like there are a lot of different opinions on this board . You're gonna get both

Don't I know it.

 

[4thline]

Rather weak arguments.

Irrelevant regardless. The entire point is Toronto cannot afford to lose the edge it has over the competition, offense.

Tops your complete lack of argument then redirect. Rielly/Barrie/Muzzin is a damn good top 3 defensemen. A good 4th piece would make it a damn good top 4.

What's funny is you've liked a bunch of posts describing them as top pair or number 2's.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Those are the facts. Just because everything Toronto touches doesn't turn to garbage like you hope, it doesn't mean they turn to gold. It just means they stay the same.

“Great underlying metrics” is actually an opinion that is largely contradicted by real evidence.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Tops your complete lack of argument then redirect. Rielly/Barrie/Muzzin is a damn good top 3 defensemen. A good 4th piece would make it a damn good top 4.

What's funny is you've liked a bunch of posts describing them as top pair or number 2's.

It is if you're behind in a game, not at all if you have a lead.

 

[Muffin]

Surprised how many Leafs fan would let Marner walk for 4 first round picks. As an Avs fan no way I'd lose Rantanen for 4 first round picks.

 

[Seanaconda]

Don't I know it.

We would be on the first page of Mitch marner mega thread pt 1 if we all agreed haha. Makes it more interesting tho. But really go on any signing page there will be overpay, fair for both sides and steal . In the majority of them .

 

[4thline]

You are way overvaluing your team. 2 60 point D? not gonna happen, only so much minutes and points to go around. There is no promise that Kap and AJ perform at that pace, Nylander is a huge wildcard and Muzzin isnt getting 40 points.

Muzzin paced 40 after the trade, Burns and Karlsson both played point per game next year. Rielly/ Barrie aren't Burns and Karlsson but the argument that 2 d can't get 60 is patently false, especially if they play on different pairs, both with a lot of time a 1st line infront of them

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Tops your complete lack of argument then redirect. Rielly/Barrie/Muzzin is a damn good top 3 defensemen. A good 4th piece would make it a damn good top 4.

What's funny is you've liked a bunch of posts describing them as top pair or number 2's.

Yikes.

I 'like' posts of posters as a sign of respecting their opinion. As we all have opinions.

If you are dropping the standard from top 2 to top 3 then yes of course it looks better as I see both Barrie and Muzzin as good #3s (ie second pair).

Again as I said the points are irrelevant. My point from the start that you kindly included in the edited quote of mine, is that Toronto needs Marner to complete that offensive edge they have over other teams. So match any offer and make it work... or trade his RFA rights for players that fit in to Toronto's needs.

 

[Strangle]

Morgan Rielly was on the ice for 92 even strength goals against last season. Krug 54.

Well, Riley played over 500 more minutes than krug, leafs let in about 50 more goals total and the bruins are overall a better defensive team.

Having a good goalie tandem didn’t hurt either. I wonder how many goals sparks let in with Riley on the ice

 

[Martin Skoula]

Morgan Rielly was on the ice for 92 even strength goals against last season. Krug 54.

He was also on ice for 50 more goals for (149 total) at even strength than Krug. Almost like the Leafs play a higher event system than the Bruins do.