Proposal: Mitch Marner for Seth Jones

[Garbageyuk]

Funny how, according to the NHL..........and what do they know, right?............Matthews is #4 in the "top-20 Centres in the league".

#NHLTopPlayers: Top 20 Centers

That's marketing. They know the Leafs have probably the largest fanbase. Their just pushing their product.

Tell me, who is he better than from the following list?

McDavid
Malkin
Kopitar
Giroux
Bergeron
MacKinnon
Crosby
Stamkos
Kuznetsov
Barzal
Tavares
Karlsson
Seguin
Barkov
Backstrom
Getzlaf
Scheifele

Maybe Karlsson and that's it.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

Same it's a good conversation, I just think it just plain hockey terms, Matthews last year faced the Bergeron line and Chara in the playoffs for a majority of the game which obviously hurt his production, now teams like the Bruins or any team for that matter have to decide if they want to play their best defenders against Marleau-Matthews-Nylander or Hyman-Tavares-Marner

All my numbers and analysis is reg. season. Of course, that is flaw, but i'm lazy haha.
In small samples, QoC is important. No one is going to say playing against the bruins top line isn't going to hurt the opposition's numbers. In fact, it is very probable that it will happen; however, over 3-4 reg seasons, you play against a whole bunch of players, and players bunch up at the mean ( in terms of QoC). This is because hockey is a game of flow, lots of changes on the fly, unable to make changes because you iced the puck, hemmed in the zone while the other team gets to change etc.
Basically, i have not seen any data to suggest AM will see some kinda number change because of lower QoC. I think you are over estimating how much easier match ups AM will get over the course of 82 games, and i think those games are better representation of player than the PO's, but both should be included.

I think you are right and wrong. I don't see much changing in reg season (due to QoC), but i could see a difference in PO's

 

[NoName]

Congratulations, you've successfully chased away all Jackets fans. Can this thread now be moved to the Leafs board?

Yes, shame on us for using facts, data and statistics to support our claim rather then swearing and typing in all caps. When will us Leafs fans ever learn?

 

[Garbageyuk]

LOL. Looks like someone didn't understand what he was being asked.

That would be you. You're clueless.

 

[Gary Nylund]

All my numbers and analysis is reg. season. Of course, that is flaw, but i'm lazy haha.
In small samples, QoC is important. No one is going to say playing against the bruins top line isn't going to hurt the opposition's numbers. In fact, it is very probable that it will happen; however, over 3-4 reg seasons, you play against a whole bunch of players, and players bunch up at the mean. This is because hockey is a game of flow, lots of changes on the fly, unable to make changes because you iced the puck, hemmed in the zone while the other team gets to change etc.
Basically, i have not seen any data to suggest AM will see some kinda number change because of lower QoC. I think you are over estimating how much easier match ups AM will get over the course of 82 games, and i think those games are better representation of player than the PO's, but both should be included.

I believe this is true, I can't remember the exact details but I believe I've seen some very credible posters show that QoC isn't a big factor which is counter-intuitive but, they were very good posters and they showed their work and IIRC, it made sense.

As far as the numbers go, AM's numbers 5-on-5 are off the charts good (as are all kinds of other "advanced" stats) and the fact that he has done that with Hyman on his wing is nothing short of jaw dropping. It will be interesting to see what the the Leafs do with their PP this season, if they just slot in Tavares/AM for JVR/Bozak and ride their top unit as heavily as some other teams do, Matthews could top 100 points this season.

 

[NoName]

That's marketing. They know the Leafs have probably the largest fanbase. Their just pushing their product.

Tell me, who is he better than from the following list?

McDavid
Malkin
Kopitar
Giroux
Bergeron
MacKinnon
Crosby
Stamkos
Kuznetsov
Barzal
Tavares
Karlsson
Seguin
Barkov
Backstrom
Getzlaf
Scheifele

Maybe Karlsson and that's it.

Right now as of the end of last season, Matthews is better than Karlsson (and this one is obvious), Seguin, Barzal, Kuznetsov; he outproduces Seguin and Karlsson, also Barzal and Kuztesov (and Karlsson again) have unproven track records as elite centres. Arguably he is better than (or on a similar level to) Tavares, Getzlaf and possibly Backstrom (if he really is starting to decline... far from certain). He out-produces others on this list like Bergeron and Barkov, but they are elite 2-way guys (defensive metrics say Matthews is now slouch in his own end, but not nearly at their level defensively), so in combination with their experience, I would still have them ahead of Matthews. So yeah, around a top 10C... at 20 years old. Take a guess at where he will be in 2 years, or 5?

We can go over all of Matthews' stats (advanced and traditional), as well as the expert poles again that justify this if it helps. One of them is done by NHL players rating other NHL players, so I don't think that can be written off so easily as "Toronto marketing".

 

[Gary Nylund]

That would be you. You're clueless.

So you think the discussion was about how to count to 17 and you're so angry about it that you're resorting to personal attacks? You best get outdoors and try to enjoy the summer because you're likely in for a hard time in school this fall. Good luck!

 

[Gary Nylund]

Right now as of the end of last season, Matthews is better than Karlsson (and this one is obvious), Seguin, Barzal, Kuznetsov; he outproduces Seguin and Karlsson, also Barzal and Kuztesov (and Karlsson again) have unproven track records as elite centres. Arguably he is better than (or on a similar level to) Tavares, Getzlaf and possibly Backstrom (if he really is starting to decline... far from certain). So yeah, around a top 10C... at 20 years old. Take a guess at where he will be in 2 years, or 5?

Around 10th and on track for top 3 before long seems spot on.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

That's interesting, thanks! I gotta give you credit here as you put some thought into this as opposed to just spewing as many are doing ITT. When I asked to show you your work my main thought was good luck using advanced analytics to compare centres to Dmen, any such attempt I believe would be speculative at best. What you've done though is a reasonable approach so good on you.

I would only add one thought - if you were picking a team to play one season than this analysis is somewhat useful as it's measuring the players as of today. If you are talking trade though, you have to consider that Jones is 3 years older and has 5 years under his belt already. Matthews is 3 years younger, only has 144 games played and I think any reasonable person would concede that he is almost guaranteed to be a much better player 2-3 years from now in the same way that Jones (and typically other young stars) improved with age and experience. So while today their on-ice value may be close, it's quite likely that in the not too distant future, Matthews will surpass Jones by a good margin. Projecting this improvement (plus the factor that 3 years younger is a benefit in itself) is such a huge factor that that there would have to be a very substantial add to Jones to make such a trade even worth considering. JMHO.

First paragraph - yea, it is hard. Forwards have a bigger impact because offence has more of an impact, and i think we still cannot capture Def as well as Off, so you kinda have to take into account relative value, but thank you, i try to be as objective as possible.

Second paragraph - I actually did not think that far ahead lol. Both players could stay at this level, but Matthews has a higher probability of increasing his level of play, so i would generally agree with you on your second paragraph.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

I believe this is true, I can't remember the exact details but I believe I've seen some very credible posters show that QoC isn't a big factor which is counter-intuitive but, they were very good posters and they showed their work and IIRC, it made sense.

As far as the numbers go, AM's numbers 5-on-5 are off the charts good (as are all kinds of other "advanced" stats) and the fact that he has done that with Hyman on his wing is nothing short of jaw dropping. It will be interesting to see what the the Leafs do with their PP this season, if they just slot in Tavares/AM for JVR/Bozak and ride their top unit as heavily as some other teams do, Matthews could top 100 points this season.

Babs seems like the type of coach to run two solid units, no?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Surprised this thread is still open.... no posts about Marner for Jones for quite a while lol...

 

[BAM]

All my numbers and analysis is reg. season. Of course, that is flaw, but i'm lazy haha.
In small samples, QoC is important. No one is going to say playing against the bruins top line isn't going to hurt the opposition's numbers. In fact, it is very probable that it will happen; however, over 3-4 reg seasons, you play against a whole bunch of players, and players bunch up at the mean ( in terms of QoC). This is because hockey is a game of flow, lots of changes on the fly, unable to make changes because you iced the puck, hemmed in the zone while the other team gets to change etc.
Basically, i have not seen any data to suggest AM will see some kinda number change because of lower QoC. I think you are over estimating how much easier match ups AM will get over the course of 82 games, and i think those games are better representation of player than the PO's, but both should be included.

I think you are right and wrong. I don't see much changing in reg season (due to QoC), but i could see a difference in PO's

This was posted in the Leaf forum on Hf by a poster named biotk, pretty good stuff. Again all credit to him for this post.

Matthews second year:
5v5 G/60 - 1.68 (1st in the NHL - 22% higher than second place Karlsson. Matthews was also 1st in his rookie season) (Tavares was at 0.93 last year. His best year was the shortened 2012/13 season when he was 1.32)

5v5 Pts/60 - 2.91 (3rd in the NHL behind McDavid and MacKinnon. 31st in his rookie season.) (Tavares was 2.02 last year. His best year was 2.38 in 2013/14)

5v5 Primary Pts/60 2.58 (1st in the NHL by a pretty healthy margin. 7th in his rookie season) (Tavares was 1.61 last year. His best year was 2.09 in 2015/16)

The last time a player had a 5v5 G/60 higher than Matthews in 2017/18 was Nash in 2014/15. Stamkos did in 2011/12. Ovechkin has not.

The last time a player had a 5v5 Primary Pts/60 higher than Matthews in 2017/18 was Perry in 2013/14. Crosby exceeded it (often by a wide margin) several years before that. Malkin did once. Patrick Kane has never come close.

Career 5v5 Primary Pts/60 Crosby has 2.25, Matthews 2.24, McDavid 2.22, Malkin 2.11. Barzal is at 2.04 Others are far behind (Kucherov: 1.83, Tavares 1.70, Drai: 1.53, Eichel: 1.39)

Career 5v5 G/60: Matthews 1.61; Laine 1.24; Boeser 1.22, Stamkos 1.19; Ovechkin 1.19; Nash 1.16 (Tavares 0.93) (The gap between number 2 and number 6 is very close. The gap between Matthews and the 2nd place player is bonkers)

What Matthews has done is pretty special. He hasn't had the luxury of getting to load up on points by playing 75% of the PP time on a top heavy unit. Kucherov, Drai, Eichel, Tavares etc. Despite all of them being older, none of them have been able to do what Matthews has been able to do.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Right now as of the end of last season, Matthews is better than Karlsson (and this one is obvious)

He's neck and neck with Karlsson.

Seguin, Barzal, Kuznetsov

lol. Come on man.

he outproduces Seguin and Karlsson, and Barzal and Kuztesov

Complete lies.

Barzal and Kuztesov (and Karlsson again) have unproven track records as elite centres.

You want to talk about unproven track records, but then you say he is better than Seguin? lol

Arguably he is better than Tavares, Getzlaf and possibly Backstrom

Lies again.

So yeah, around a top 10C... at 20 years old. Take a guess at where he will be in 2 years, or 5?

He's nowhere near top-10. He's not even top-15. And this debate isn't about where he will be 2 years or 5; it's about how good he is now, and he's nowhere near a top-10 C.

Take off the homer goggles.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

This was posted in the Leaf forum on Hf by a poster named biotk, pretty good stuff. Again all credit to him for this post.

Matthews second year:
5v5 G/60 - 1.68 (1st in the NHL - 22% higher than second place Karlsson. Matthews was also 1st in his rookie season) (Tavares was at 0.93 last year. His best year was the shortened 2012/13 season when he was 1.32)

5v5 Pts/60 - 2.91 (3rd in the NHL behind McDavid and MacKinnon. 31st in his rookie season.) (Tavares was 2.02 last year. His best year was 2.38 in 2013/14)

5v5 Primary Pts/60 2.58 (1st in the NHL by a pretty healthy margin. 7th in his rookie season) (Tavares was 1.61 last year. His best year was 2.09 in 2015/16)

The last time a player had a 5v5 G/60 higher than Matthews in 2017/18 was Nash in 2014/15. Stamkos did in 2011/12. Ovechkin has not.

The last time a player had a 5v5 Primary Pts/60 higher than Matthews in 2017/18 was Perry in 2013/14. Crosby exceeded it (often by a wide margin) several years before that. Malkin did once. Patrick Kane has never come close.

Career 5v5 Primary Pts/60 Crosby has 2.25, Matthews 2.24, McDavid 2.22, Malkin 2.11. Barzal is at 2.04 Others are far behind (Kucherov: 1.83, Tavares 1.70, Drai: 1.53, Eichel: 1.39)

Career 5v5 G/60: Matthews 1.61; Laine 1.24; Boeser 1.22, Stamkos 1.19; Ovechkin 1.19; Nash 1.16 (Tavares 0.93) (The gap between number 2 and number 6 is very close. The gap between Matthews and the 2nd place player is bonkers)

What Matthews has done is pretty special. He hasn't had the luxury of getting to load up on points by playing 75% of the PP time on a top heavy unit. Kucherov, Drai, Eichel, Tavares etc. Despite all of them being older, none of them have been able to do what Matthews has been able to do.

All these stats are taken into account in the models. I know Matthews is an elite EV producer. Hell, he is an elite player.

 

[Garbageyuk]

So you think the discussion was about how to count to 17 and you're so angry about it that you're resorting to personal attacks? You best get outdoors and try to enjoy the summer because you're likely in for a hard time in school this fall. Good luck!

If there are 16 centers ahead of him, then he is the 17th best center, which is what I said. Come on man

 

[BAM]

All these stats are taken into account in the models. I know Matthews is an elite EV producer.

And this coming season he gets to go from the 2nd powerplay unit to a unit featuring him, Marner, Tavares, Nylander and Rielly. I wouldn't be surprised if he had 100 points this year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Babs seems like the type of coach to run two solid units, no?

I'm not sure TBH as I didn't follow him closely in Detroit. We've been running two units in Toronto but for whatever reason, one has been fantastic and the other one not so hot. For that reason, many have suggested stacking one unit but then again, it's not like Babcock cares what fans say so ... we'll see what happens. At any rate, Matthews is such an awesome scorer that it seems reasonable to assume that he will score a bunch of goals on the PP sooner or later one way or the other.

 

[NoName]

He's neck and neck with Karlsson.

lol. Come on man.

Complete lies.

You want to talk about unproven track records, but then you say he is better than Seguin? lol

Lies again.

He's nowhere near top-10. He's not even top-15. And this debate isn't about where he will be 2 years or 5; it's about how good he is now, and he's nowhere near a top-10 C.

Take off the homer goggles.

I post stats and data supporting my claims. You answer with just saying "lies".

Can't really argue with that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Gary Nylund]

If there are 16 centers ahead of him, then he is the 17th best center, which is what I said. Come on man

So you still think this about how to count to 17? Here's a hint - it's not. Though if you haven't figured it out by now I doubt you ever will.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He's neck and neck with Karlsson.

lol. Come on man.

Complete lies.

You want to talk about unproven track records, but then you say he is better than Seguin? lol

Lies again.

He's nowhere near top-10. He's not even top-15. And this debate isn't about where he will be 2 years or 5; it's about how good he is now, and he's nowhere near a top-10 C.

Take off the homer goggles.

"Lies, lies, lies". Hmm, not exactly the best thought out arguments I've seen here but if that's the best you can do ...

 

[Holymakinaw]

Surprised this thread is still open.... no posts about Marner for Jones for quite a while lol...

Marner is/will be far more valuable than Seth Jones. The Leafs would NEVER do this deal.

Better?

 

[Garbageyuk]

So you still think this about how to count to 17? Here's a hint - it's not. Though if you haven't figured it out by now I doubt you ever will.

Oh it's not now because you got owned trying to chirp me?

 

[Garbageyuk]

I post stats and data supporting my claims. You answer with just saying "lies".

Can't really argue with that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

What stats and data? he didn't outproduce any of them. He has never had a seeason where he reached the marks they have. P/gp over a partial season isn't outproducing them, even if he did have a slightly higher ppg than a couple of them.

 

[wahsnairb]

How did did you get chased away? Was asking for a rationale behind ranking Matthews as the 17th best centre causing you too much stress?



LOL. You guys are understandably stressed about losing Karlsson so I won't judge you by this ludicrous opinion. And BTW, the question was what would have to be added to Nylander to make it fair, or are you suggesting that Matthews would be the add?

Asks for neutral fans to chime in on Matthews versus Jones, hears an answer he doesn’t like, shits on said neutral poster who has their opinion (that he asked for).. all in a thread that isn’t even about Matthews.

For the 3rd time, why is this not locked?



[Also, again, as a neutral fan, like you asked for, Jones and Matthews are far far closer in value than Jones and Marner (whether you want to hear it or not).]

 

[wahsnairb]

Yes, shame on us for using facts, data and statistics to support our claim rather then swearing and typing in all caps. When will us Leafs fans ever learn?

Feces is brown because it consists of dead red blood cells and bile.

A shit argument is still going to be shit even if it is fact based.