When I teased the worst contracts list was coming, many dejected Wild fans in the comments joked that it would be a list full of Wild contracts, and yet here the team is ranked seventh. Hmm.
Minnesota’s biggest problem is in net, and if those contracts were factored in here they’d likely rank lower as a result. By expected goals saved, Dubnyk has been one of the league’s worst goalies over the last couple years.
Aside from that though, the forward contracts on the books give plenty of reason for pessimism. It’s a hodgepodge of bad value aside from the terrific (but short) Eric Staal deal and the bargain Jason Zucker deal that for some reason the team wanted to unload. Zach Parise had a resurgence last season that puts some extra life on his deal, but the last four years might get ugly. Neither of the new signees, Mats Zuccarello and Ryan Hartman, project to offer positive value. And of course there’s the Victor Rask deal, the worst one here as the rehabilitation project hasn’t exactly gone according to plan.
Defence is the team’s bread and butter though (hence why Dubnyk looks so bad after accounting for context), and that’s where the team finds value. Defence is often underrated and it’s likely why my model (now after some improvements anyways) sees the Wild group providing more value than expected. Matt Dumba and Jared Spurgeon are the best deals here, but everyone on the back end looks like a good bet to provide positive value. The Wild are one of three teams without a single bad contract on the blue line.
All the defencemen have a pretty high chance of providing positive value, and aside from Rask, the forwards aren’t bad in that regard either. The Wild rank seventh by that measure and it’s the main reason they’re ranked so highly.