Player Discussion Mikael Backlund

[Anglesmith]

The real issue here is cap dollars. How much of a home town discount is Backs willing to concede before he checks out his other options.

Most don't realize how hard it is going to be to fit all of the contracts coming due in the next couple years.

First to contend you need a goalie and that is going to cost between 5-7 million a season. (Gillies will not be ready for next year and yes with this nucleus the team has to be ready to contend.)

Next you have to sign Bennett to a bridge deal that will likely be in the neighborhood of 3M per for 2-3 years.

Lazar luckily for the Flames will likely sign a show me contract around $1.5M.

The Flames will likely need to sign a back-up, Stone and one other D-man to contracts leaving a spot for a graduate of the AHL.

The year after Backlund's contract is up Matthew Tkachuk will need to be signed and there is no way, from everything to this point that he will sign for less than Johnny or Monahan. Janko will likely be playing with the big club and will need to be resigned. Then you have Klimmer, Shinkaruk, Poirier, Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, Kulak and a few others could also make impressions requiring contracts and spots in the line-up.

Simply put if a contract is not signed by the trading deadline next year I could see him being moved.

On the open market Backs will garner 6-7M with teams like Montreal, Carolina, Ottawa, Detroit, and New Jersey in the mix. This year will make him worth Bergeron money as his underlying numbers and point production will put him on par with Patrice when he was about the same age.

IMO there will be no way the Flames will be able to afford his contract.

We already had this conversation and came to the conclusion that it shouldn't be too hard, even if the cap barely rises.

Now that management appears poised to let Brouwer go to Vegas, there's a chance it gets even easier.

 

[InfinityIggy]

We already had this conversation and came to the conclusion that it shouldn't be too hard, even if the cap barely rises.

Now that management appears poised to let Brouwer go to Vegas, there's a chance it gets even easier.

Was going to point out that Stajans cap space will be freed up by then as well. I am not too worried.

 

[BVicious]

Can you elaborate?

His previous girlfriend put a lot of pressure on him to settle down, have kids and stuff. This was when he was still sort of struggling, and before this current contract. He wasn't even sure if he would remain in the league at the time. Around the time he almost went to arbitration.

I knew his ex and that's how I met him, living a few blocks from them in Bridgeland, walking our dogs and stuff. It was obvious there was a lot of pressure off ice, and when I say he is loyal I mean he is just a really good person. He has also had trouble fitting in with the group of guys that we're here at the time. Most of the guys he came up with in the system were gone, and it was a hard adjustment.

Everything I just said above is based on convo's I had with his ex, and having an uncanny sense of judging people's character.

I figured it was worth mentioning, because we sometimes forget that these guys are humans like us, and real life factors into on ice performance, more than we tend to consider.

 

[SKRusty]

We already had this conversation and came to the conclusion that it shouldn't be too hard, even if the cap barely rises.

Many would question the values associated with Ferland's, Stone or a suitable replacement, Elliott's contract or a suitable replacement, and then there is Bennett, and Tkachuk. (Yes Tkachuk matters because there is likely already a dollar value beside his name in Trelivings projections and Brad will not sacrifice that signing.) There are still 20 contracts that will need to be signed for next season and 34 for 2018-19 with totals of $50.2M and $40M spent on existing contracts respectively.

Historically the accounting in those conversations is pie in the sky. Realistically the Flames may have 5M they could give Backlund and personally I don't see him signing for that.

Now that management appears poised to let Brouwer go to Vegas, there's a chance it gets even easier.

It is highly unlikely that Brouwer will be the one selected. It is more likely Vegas will pluck one of the prospects or Lance on the hopes he can find his abilities of 2 years ago.
G Tom McCollum
D Ryan Culkin
D Brett Kulak
D Tyler Wotherspoon
F Lance Bouma
F Freddie Hamilton
F Emile Poirier
F Hunter Shinkaruk

If you were Vegas who would you take to be as competitive as possible in 4 years?

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Thing is, if I'm Vegas I want my team to be competitive now, and that probably means Brouwer or Bouma, depending on who else is exposed and drafted from other teams. The rest of that list, if you'll pardon the pun, their chance to make it as regulars in the NHL is a roll of the dice.

I also might want someone from the community, and negotiate with Deryk Engelland in the UFA negotiating window, which would preclude drafting a player from the Flames. This might actually be more important from an 'intangibles' standpoint.

 

[Anglesmith]

Many would question the values associated with Ferland's, Stone or a suitable replacement, Elliott's contract or a suitable replacement, and then there is Bennett, and Tkachuk. (Yes Tkachuk matters because there is likely already a dollar value beside his name in Trelivings projections and Brad will not sacrifice that signing.) There are still 20 contracts that will need to be signed for next season and 34 for 2018-19 with totals of $50.2M and $40M spent on existing contracts respectively.

Historically the accounting in those conversations is pie in the sky. Realistically the Flames may have 5M they could give Backlund and personally I don't see him signing for that.

It really isn't. Basically every estimate was made conservatively to give you the benefit of the doubt. On your side, you consistently make worst-case scenarios the assumption to prove your thesis, not just for the sake of argument even. For instance, you have already pencilled in north of $6M for a goaltender as of next year. There is zero reason to assume that, as we have no idea what our management's strategy is going forward. There are very few goalies worth that much who will be available, and quite a few who will be available for less than that, and you're basically assuming that we're going to take one of the premium-price goalies without considering the salary cap.

Listen, it's of course never possible in a cap system to keep 100% of your players for their whole careers. At some point, moves will have to be made, but Flames management has done a great job positioning us for the next few years. Given we're still over a year out from Backlund hitting UFA, it's sufficient to just be "close" to being able to fit him, let alone being able to show the additions and subtractions that will make it easily possible. The rest can be worked out by management, as it always inevitably is. There is no situation that requires a team letting its best player go when they aren't going into a rebuild.

It is highly unlikely that Brouwer will be the one selected. It is more likely Vegas will pluck one of the prospects or Lance on the hopes he can find his abilities of 2 years ago.
G Tom McCollum
D Ryan Culkin
D Brett Kulak
D Tyler Wotherspoon
F Lance Bouma
F Freddie Hamilton
F Emile Poirier
F Hunter Shinkaruk

If you were Vegas who would you take to be as competitive as possible in 4 years?

Is this a trick question? I'm going to have a 30-players when the expansion process is all done. I need a 23-man roster that will be competitive enough to draw interest in Vegas. I want the guy that is an actual NHL player out of that list, and probably the one who plays in all situations and has won a Cup and has leadership abilities. Are you serious? We aren't talking about Brouwer vs. young guys with high upside. None of those guys you list there have very much upside at all at this point. And if Vegas makes a principle out of selecting prospects in most cases, they won't make the cap floor.

 

[Calculon]

Glossed over this part of the expansion draft rules:

* The Las Vegas franchise must select a minimum of 20 players who are under contract for the 2017-18 season.

Makes it much more likely the Flames lose a Brouwer/Shinkaruk/Poirier/Bouma/Stajan over Kulak/Lazar/Wotherspoon/Chiasson, none of whom are signed for 2017-2018.

Again, if they're going for Fleury, they'll almost definitely go for Brouwer first (especially given McPhee's history there), then Bouma or Stajan (Engelland being a dark horse), followed by Shinkaruk/Poirier. Keep in mind, McPhee passed on Shinkaruk to take Burakovsky in 2013 and Poirier's offensive regression isn't exactly helping him standout.

Anyway, the Flames will most assuredly have the cap space to sign Backlund longterm, just like they did with Gaudreau. Both Bouma and Stajan are done after next season, which free's up 5.325M. If the Flames desperately need even more cap space, they'd go down the pecking order, which means Brouwer, Frolik, even Stone would all be let go before Backlund. Core players are core players; you don't prioritize keeping the periphery because the core need new contracts. This is where drafting/development is critical because once all the core is locked down, it'll be hard enough to keep guys like Frolik at 4M+, let alone 4th liners with cap hits greater than 1M.

 

[SKRusty]

Thing is, if I'm Vegas I want my team to be competitive now, and that probably means Brouwer or Bouma, depending on who else is exposed and drafted from other teams. The rest of that list, if you'll pardon the pun, their chance to make it as regulars in the NHL is a roll of the dice.

I also might want someone from the community, and negotiate with Deryk Engelland in the UFA negotiating window, which would preclude drafting a player from the Flames. This might actually be more important from an 'intangibles' standpoint.

Is this a trick question? I'm going to have a 30-players when the expansion process is all done. I need a 23-man roster that will be competitive enough to draw interest in Vegas. I want the guy that is an actual NHL player out of that list, and probably the one who plays in all situations and has won a Cup and has leadership abilities. Are you serious? We aren't talking about Brouwer vs. young guys with high upside. None of those guys you list there have very much upside at all at this point. And if Vegas makes a principle out of selecting prospects in most cases, they won't make the cap floor.

No expansion team in recent history has been competitive in their first couple seasons. One area Las Vegas has an advantage on their predecessors is the salary cap and UFA's. George McPhee is not new to this rodeo and knows the value of stockpiling younger assets. A player like Kulak will be in demand as his underlying numbers in the NHL have been respectable and he is only 23 years old. Most analysts are expecting McPhee to use the draft to stockpile youth while filling out the team with UFA's like P.A. Parenteau, Thomas Vanek, Engelland, Patrick Marleau, Joe Thorton, Brooks Laich, Dennis Wideman, Johnathan Bernier, Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie, Johnny Oduya and so forth to follow Toronto's lead in signing assets to trade them at the deadline for draft picks.

It really isn't. Basically every estimate was made conservatively to give you the benefit of the doubt. On your side, you consistently make worst-case scenarios the assumption to prove your thesis, not just for the sake of argument even. For instance, you have already pencilled in north of $6M for a goaltender as of next year. There is zero reason to assume that, as we have no idea what our management's strategy is going forward. There are very few goalies worth that much who will be available, and quite a few who will be available for less than that, and you're basically assuming that we're going to take one of the premium-price goalies without considering the salary cap.

Listen, it's of course never possible in a cap system to keep 100% of your players for their whole careers. At some point, moves will have to be made, but Flames management has done a great job positioning us for the next few years. Given we're still over a year out from Backlund hitting UFA, it's sufficient to just be "close" to being able to fit him, let alone being able to show the additions and subtractions that will make it easily possible. The rest can be worked out by management, as it always inevitably is. There is no situation that requires a team letting its best player go when they aren't going into a rebuild.

Backlund is Calgary's best player this year and should be in the conversation for the Selke. The question comes down to will he be the best player in the years to come and where does he slot on that list. Where will he rank in 2 years in regards to Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, and TJ Brodie.

I argue he is less important than all the names on that list and a goalie that will take Calgary to the promised land. Add to that it appears as if Jankowski could slot into the line-up next year.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

We absolutely have room to sign Backlund. The Flames have done a phenomenal job setting up contracts that every time a core player is coming up off a contract a secondary player's contract also comes up.

The only exception to this is Tkachuk because nobody would have predicted the season he's having. Heck, it wasn't even known if he would make the team. He is also the reason I expect Stone to either get a two year deal at similar value to what he has now, or a longer term deal at a friendlier cap hit.

Backlund is already making 3.575, even if he goes up to 5.5 (Flipula style contract) then it's still only a 2 million increase.

If he gets over 6 then we can start talking about shuffling some money around, but even then we still have room.

This team wants to win a Stanley Cup. You don't do that by moving your best forward, arguably best player. Period.

 

[Yung Rotini]

I hope Backs takes a bit of a discount to stay here. He's so important to this team.

 

[InfinityIggy]

His previous girlfriend put a lot of pressure on him to settle down, have kids and stuff. This was when he was still sort of struggling, and before this current contract. He wasn't even sure if he would remain in the league at the time. Around the time he almost went to arbitration.

I knew his ex and that's how I met him,

Hey you uh, *snif* wanna grab a beer sometime?

 

[Backlund]

Who exactly is going to be taking up that much cap space that we won't be able to re-sign Backlund?

 

[Anglesmith]

No expansion team in recent history has been competitive in their first couple seasons. One area Las Vegas has an advantage on their predecessors is the salary cap and UFA's. George McPhee is not new to this rodeo and knows the value of stockpiling younger assets. A player like Kulak will be in demand as his underlying numbers in the NHL have been respectable and he is only 23 years old. Most analysts are expecting McPhee to use the draft to stockpile youth while filling out the team with UFA's like P.A. Parenteau, Thomas Vanek, Engelland, Patrick Marleau, Joe Thorton, Brooks Laich, Dennis Wideman, Johnathan Bernier, Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie, Johnny Oduya and so forth to follow Toronto's lead in signing assets to trade them at the deadline for draft picks.

That's fine. It's not a hill I want to die on. I think if Brouwer is available, that'll be who he picks, but it's not absolutely necessary for the Flames by any means.

Backlund is Calgary's best player this year and should be in the conversation for the Selke. The question comes down to will he be the best player in the years to come and where does he slot on that list. Where will he rank in 2 years in regards to Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, and TJ Brodie.

I argue he is less important than all the names on that list and a goalie that will take Calgary to the promised land. Add to that it appears as if Jankowski could slot into the line-up next year.

Well, Backlund is 27. Let's not pretend he's about to decline. He is now entering his prime, so we should expect this current level of play to continue. As for going forward, until someone is better than him, he will continue to be the best. He is currently among the best possession players in the league while being absolutely buried in terms of competition and zone starts.

If you're suggesting a future where we have that player plus some even better players... sign me the **** up!!! Why would we want to make a move to avoid that?

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Letting Backlund go would be not be smart. When I say this, I am biting my tongue here.

 

[BVicious]

I think term will be just as important as cap hit for him, so I see: 5 yrs at $5.5 - $5.75Mill per.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

I think term will be just as important as cap hit for him, so I see: 5 yrs at $5.5 - $5.75Mill per.

If term is important, he's looking for 7 (or 8) years.

If it helps lower the cap hit, I'd do $5 million (hopefully less) x 8

 

[BVicious]

If term is important, he's looking for 7 (or 8) years.

If it helps lower the cap hit, I'd do $5 million (hopefully less) x 8

6 years, maybe 7, but you aren't getting him to sign here for less than $5Million per on any deal

 

[Calculon]

A pointlessly premature look at a theoretically overly optimistic 2019-2020 season (basically after Tkachuk's ELC is over)

Assumptions:

• Ferland is signed to a 2 year bridge deal in the summer of 2017, then signs a 4yr/4M per contract in the summer of 2019
• Bennett is signed to a 2 year bridge deal in the summer of 2017, then signs a longterm 6yrsX6M contract in the summer of 2019
• Stone is re-signed to a 4yr/4M per contract in the summer of 2017
• Elliott is signed to a 4yr/4.5M per contract in the summer of 2017
• Tkachuk just keeps getting better and better
• The Nevada Golden Knights take Brouwer
• For simplicity's sake, the bottom of the roster is filled solely with internal prospects

Tkachuk (7M) - Backlund (6M) - Frolik (4.3M)
Gaudreau (6.75M) - Monahan (6.4M) - Ferland (4.0M)
Mangiapane (1M) - Bennett (6M) - Lazar (1M)
Klimchuk (1M)- Jankowski (1M) - Hathaway (1M)
Total = 45.45M

Giordano (6.75M) - Hamilton (5.75M)
Brodie (4.65M) - Stone (4M)
Kylington (1M) - Andersson (1M)
Total: 23.15M

Elliott (4.5M)
Gillies (2M)
Total = 6.5M

Total: 75.1M

It's estimated that the 2017-2018 cap will be around 73 to 75M. Barring another Great Recession and continued use of the 5% inflator, it's highly unlikely the cap in 2019-2020 will go down.

So the bottom line is, instead of overpaying 4th liners/3rd pairing defenceman, the Flames will have to instead go with cheap ELC's/bridge deals/cheap veterans to fill out the roster, much like the Hawks and Penguins. Oh, the horror.

And there's still room for leeway, given Hickey might be able to make Stone expendable while it's unlikely Tkachuk gets 7M. And if the Flames are prudent, they'll re-sign Backlund this summer when they might be able to get him at a number closer to 5M. Likewise, the prudence with the Ferland and Bennett contracts could save even more cap space. Frolik will also have just one more year left.

And if all of Jankowski/Mangiapane/Klimchuk/Kylington/Andersson, etc., warrant significant raises because the Flames' developmental system suddenly starts compensating for decades of inactivity? See the Hawks re: Ladd/Versteeg/Byfuglien/Saad/Leddy/Niemi/Sharp. Either the expensive veterans or the soon-to-be expensive younger depth gets traded for futures to restart the process.

 

[Sparky93]

Backs will be 29 when an extension kicks in, term will be important. 5x5 should be a good offer for both sides. Career numbers and durability plays a big factor in long term contracts. Seems like Backlund has moved past his injury concerns but the number of injury free seasons will still factor in. He's turning 28 right away and has only broken 40 points twice, factor in a home town discount and I don't see the number being horrible. I still say that his future with the Flames is in the hands of Bennett and Jankowski, if they look good next year, I fully expect him to be moved.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Backs will be 29 when an extension kicks in, term will be important. 5x5 should be a good offer for both sides. Career numbers and durability plays a big factor in long term contracts. Seems like Backlund has moved past his injury concerns but the number of injury free seasons will still factor in. He's turning 28 right away and has only broken 40 points twice, factor in a home town discount and I don't see the number being horrible. I still say that his future with the Flames is in the hands of Bennett and Jankowski, if they look good next year, I fully expect him to be moved.

Even if Backlund is only 2/3's as effective next year as he is this year, he's still an incredibly important component to this team.

While we hope that Bennett and Jankowski step up, even if Backlund's offense steps back we still need someone who can provide his level of two way play and also serve as the energizer bunny for players in slumps/mediocre (Colborne, Bouma, etc).

 

[Sparky93]

Even if Backlund is only 2/3's as effective next year as he is this year, he's still an incredibly important component to this team.

While we hope that Bennett and Jankowski step up, even if Backlund's offense steps back we still need someone who can provide his level of two way play and also serve as the energizer bunny for players in slumps/mediocre (Colborne, Bouma, etc).

It really comes down to dollars and cents. 2/3 of his production this year, is right around 40 points, which is right around where I expect him to be. If Bennett pushes 40 next year and Jankowski 20(which I think is very do able), I don't see him being extended, unless it's a very moderate raise. I don't see any chance of the Flames locking him up to anything close to $6 million, 5 is even pushing it. Now if Bennett doesn't progress next year, that changes everything, but his future hinges on Bennett.

 

[HAKAN LOOB]

It really comes down to dollars and cents. 2/3 of his production this year, is right around 40 points, which is right around where I expect him to be. If Bennett pushes 40 next year and Jankowski 20(which I think is very do able), I don't see him being extended, unless it's a very moderate raise. I don't see any chance of the Flames locking him up to anything close to $6 million, 5 is even pushing it. Now if Bennett doesn't progress next year, that changes everything, but his future hinges on Bennett.

The thing is, part of what Backlund provides isn't going to show up on the score sheet. He takes all the hard match ups, and his line barely gets offensive zone face-offs. Who's going to handle that responsibility? Monahan?

 

[Flames Fanatic]

It really comes down to dollars and cents. 2/3 of his production this year, is right around 40 points, which is right around where I expect him to be. If Bennett pushes 40 next year and Jankowski 20(which I think is very do able), I don't see him being extended, unless it's a very moderate raise. I don't see any chance of the Flames locking him up to anything close to $6 million, 5 is even pushing it. Now if Bennett doesn't progress next year, that changes everything, but his future hinges on Bennett.

You really didn't account for where I said his true value lies.

 

[L13]

Tkachuk (7M)

That's not going to happen.

 

[Anglesmith]

That's not going to happen.

It's not that out of line. Gaudreau basically did everything you can ask for in his ELC and got $6.75M. Tkachuk has done just about everything you can ask for this year. If he continues that trend for two more, and you adjust for the constant increase in contract benchmarks, he's going to earn that.