Mighty turnaround for Toronto Maple Leafs prospects pool

[Warden of the North]

No one is ever getting datsyuk and zetterberg in the late rounds ever again. Scouting is far more improved from those days. Same with Lidström in the third.

Jamie Benn?

Players develop at different paces. No amount of scouting can figure that out.

 

[Joey Hoser]

No one is ever getting datsyuk and zetterberg in the late rounds ever again. Scouting is far more improved from those days. Same with Lidström in the third.

It'll be more seldom, but it will still happen. Scouting is better but will never be even close to perfect. They're dealing with 17 year olds.

 

[Menzinger]

It's amazing how just two draft years can turn around a prospect pool so much.

Gone are the days of valuing grit like Biggs and Ross, it's time for skill to take its rightful place as the main determinant when selecting draft picks.

 

[WTFMAN99]

No one is ever getting datsyuk and zetterberg in the late rounds ever again. Scouting is far more improved from those days. Same with Lidström in the third.

I wouldn't use the word "never" - it'll still happen, it's tough to pull off but it happens.

You're trying to guess how a 17 year old will mature physically and mentally....I am sure improvements have been made but it's still a really tough thing to project.

 

[Menzinger]

Hunter's doing the scouting , building the scouting department from the ground up and made the decisions on who to draft , all Dubas seems to be doing is some PR work .

I don't know how you can possibly make that claim - it seems one of the reasons for the culling of so many Scouts is their refusal to adopt analyctics into their decision making - which as been an influence of Dubas.

And ultimately nobody here has any idea of how scouting/drafting is managed internally with the team.

 

[hotpaws]

Dubas is the Marlies GM and basically heads up the analytics side of player evaluation.

I'm pretty sure we've discussed it before and you don't buy into analytics at all, so unless the Marlies really impress you, its doubtful you'll ever be able to appreciate Dubas' impact, regardless of whether or not it's a positive one.

It's not that i don't buy into analytics , i just believe it's an unproven tool who's importance is being overstated . I believe it has it's uses but for the most part it's just breaking down old stats in a new way without saying anything new . I also believe it gets cherry picked to justify a persons view (by the posters here, not all mind you) instead of helping to form an opinion by those who strongly believe in them . For example if a fan likes Gards he'll use Corsi but the DP fans don't .

Like i said i'll give credit to Dubas for Keefe and the influence he's had on the team but what does analytics have to do with the roster . Would prospects get kicked to the curb if they had a poor Corsi ? Sure he may have brought in the odd vet player based on Corsi but most of these prospects were acquired before he was even hired so why should i give him credit for them ?

We've always had ass't GM's but i've never seen posters going overboard praising them for every positive move the team makes . I'm sure Poulin/Loiselle also watched some jr/ncaa games and gave there input but i never saw them given equal billing for our picks like Dubas has with Hunter who is actually in charge of scouting .

Also if he's was making all the decisions like some seem to believe , where's the criticism for bringing in Maricin-Arcobello among others t/d fodder who haven;t performed well ?

I'll know if Dubas is performing well in his current position a few years down the road if he's given the GM's job after LL retires but i'm not going to give him credit/blame for Hunters and his staffs picks .

 

[Jack Bauer]

No one is ever getting datsyuk and zetterberg in the late rounds ever again. Scouting is far more improved from those days. Same with Lidström in the third.

Ever again? Ever? EVER?

Scouting isn't an exact science that can be perfected. There are these things called unknown variables that happen unpredictably and change the development course of players.

I am quite confident that over the next 100 years there will be hall of fame players selected in each and every round of entry drafts. Especially Europeans who tend to fall because of their preference to develop their talents at home rather then in North America for the most part.

 

[hotpaws]

I don't know how you can possibly make that claim - it seems one of the reasons for the culling of so many Scouts is their refusal to adopt analyctics into their decision making - which as been an influence of Dubas.

And ultimately nobody here has any idea of how scouting/drafting is managed internally with the team.

you act like every player we're scouting teams pour the same resources we do into analytics so we can go over the data and make our picks , or are you saying we're breaking down every game teams around the world play ?

I'm also pretty sure the the head of the scouting dept has just a touch more influence over who we pick than the rest of the employees , not to mention Shanny already said it was Hunters call on the scouts and who to draft .

What the **** is this incessant need to praise Dubas for every positive thing that may happen to this team . I'm still waiting to see how the boy genius is going invent new ways in how we use the ECHL in development like he said he would .

 

[Joey Hoser]

It's not that i don't buy into analytics , i just believe it's an unproven tool who's importance is being overstated . I believe it has it's uses but for the most part it's just breaking down old stats in a new way without saying anything new . I also believe it gets cherry picked to justify a persons view (by the posters here, not all mind you) instead of helping to form an opinion by those who strongly believe in them . For example if a fan likes Gards he'll use Corsi but the DP fans don't .

Like i said i'll give credit to Dubas for Keefe and the influence he's had on the team but what does analytics have to do with the roster . Would prospects get kicked to the curb if they had a poor Corsi ? Sure he may have brought in the odd vet player based on Corsi but most of these prospects were acquired before he was even hired so why should i give him credit for them ?

We've always had ass't GM's but i've never seen posters going overboard praising them for every positive move the team makes . I'm sure Poulin/Loiselle also watched some jr/ncaa games and gave there input but i never saw them given equal billing for our picks like Dubas has with Hunter who is actually in charge of scouting .

Also if he's was making all the decisions like some seem to believe , where's the criticism for bringing in Maricin-Arcobello among others t/d fodder who haven;t performed well ?

I'll know if Dubas is performing well in his current position a few years down the road if he's given the GM's job after LL retires but i'm not going to give him credit/blame for Hunters and his staffs picks .

Well yeah your last paragraph basically emphasizes what I said. You've decided you don't see the value in what he does and you're ready to attribute any success to other things. Dubas can't win with you until, as you said, he becomes the GM years down the road and the results speak for themselves.

 

[Semantics]

Hunter's doing the scouting , building the scouting department from the ground up and made the decisions on who to draft , all Dubas seems to be doing is some PR work .

Dubas is in charge of the analytics department, which INCLUDES analytics on all the draft-eligible players.

He's also in charge of the Marlies and Solar Bears, and has been responsible for pick ups like Froese, Soshnikov, getting Keefe, and the development of Marlies players like Nylander and Brown.

 

[Semantics]

Would prospects get kicked to the curb if they had a poor Corsi ? Sure he may have brought in the odd vet player based on Corsi but most of these prospects were acquired before he was even hired so why should i give him credit for them ?

Absolutely they would not draft or trade for a player if their analytics suggested their play was unsustainable, or at least they'd draft them lower. Dubas and Shanny have made reference numerous times to the fact that prospects like Harrington or Neilsen charted well and that it's one of the reasons they were interested.

 

[hotpaws]

Well yeah your last paragraph basically emphasizes what I said. You've decided you don't see the value in what he does and you're ready to attribute any success to other things. Dubas can't win with you until, as you said, he becomes the GM years down the road and the results speak for themselves.

OK lets break down what's he's done .

Which one of the vets that were brought in outside of Hunwick have performed well ? Babs/Det played a possession game long before analytics were around or should i give Dubas credit for changing Babs approach to coaching ? The prospects on the Marlies were selected before Dubas was here but i guess we'll give him credit for the one's preforming well . Hunter is charge of scouting but that means little because Dubas was equally responsible for this draft since it seems it was a good one .

I was also told Burke had assembled the best mgmt team in the league as well and it seems some of our fans can't wait until there's some actually success before we praise mgmt and in this case it seems it's all about Dubas for some reason .

Dubas may or may not turn into an excellent exec but i'll wait until some actually results before i put him in HOF .

 

[Semantics]

you act like every player we're scouting teams pour the same resources we do into analytics so we can go over the data and make our picks , or are you saying we're breaking down every game teams around the world play ?

Both of those are true. The Leafs do extensive analysis of all of the major leagues they draft players out of to get a better understanding of the level of play, as well as individual teams/players. They aren't the only team doing this. I know that the San Jose Sharks have tracked stats like Corsi for the CHL/NCAA since the mid-2000s.

Heck, Dubas had an analytics team when he was working for the SOO who kept tabs on all players in that league. (And possibly also midget players they were interested in drafting.) Mostly interns who got paid peanuts. With the resources the Leafs have they're definitely doing a heck of a lot more than that.

I'm also pretty sure the the head of the scouting dept has just a touch more influence over who we pick than the rest of the employees , not to mention Shanny already said it was Hunters call on the scouts and who to draft .

Obviously Hunter makes the final decisions. But if you don't think he takes into account analytics or input from other members on the team then frankly you haven't been paying attention.

 

[BIitz]

No one is ever getting datsyuk and zetterberg in the late rounds ever again. Scouting is far more improved from those days. Same with Lidström in the third.

Benn, Palat, Johnson, Klingberg, Stone, Johnny Hockey, etc. Scouting is still far from perfect. Especially when teams overlook certain qualities for others.

 

[Semantics]

Dubas may or may not turn into an excellent exec but i'll wait until some actually results before i put him in HOF .

This is a straw man. Nobody has suggested he belongs in the HOF. When you resort to hyperbole like that it tells everyone reading your posts that you've lost the argument - as Joey said, you've already decided you don't see the value in what Dubas does, and aren't going to try to change that.

 

[hotpaws]

Absolutely they would not draft or trade for a player if their analytics suggested their play was unsustainable, or at least they'd draft them lower. Dubas and Shanny have made reference numerous times to the fact that prospects like Harrington or Neilsen charted well and that it's one of the reasons they were interested.

Maricin also had good analytics didn't he and how were Arcobello's-Mathias-Boyes analytics among others ? I guess now the most important aspect of scouting a player now is shots f/a , who knew . I have no idea why we even send scouts into the arena anymore .

also if this was true why are we wasting time developing a Brock sports mgmt grad ? shouldn't we be targeting the top math grad from Waterloo who'd be head and shoulders better at crunching the numbers and finding players based on this new analytics craze?

 

[hotpaws]

Both of those are true. The Leafs do extensive analysis of all of the major leagues they draft players out of to get a better understanding of the level of play, as well as individual teams/players. They aren't the only team doing this. I know that the San Jose Sharks have tracked stats like Corsi for the CHL/NCAA since the mid-2000s.

Heck, Dubas had an analytics team when he was working for the SOO who kept tabs on all players in that league. (And possibly also midget players they were interested in drafting.) Mostly interns who got paid peanuts. With the resources the Leafs have they're definitely doing a heck of a lot more than that.

Obviously Hunter makes the final decisions. But if you don't think he takes into account analytics or input from other members on the team then frankly you haven't been paying attention.

How do you know the Leafs break down every game in every league around the world for scouting purposes , that would involve a hell of a lot of work if they could even get tape on every game . Also i know from experience midget teams don't track corsi and even if they tried those stats wouldn't be reliable since it would just be a parent in the stands tracking numbers while chatting with a buddy watching there kid play .

This is a straw man. Nobody has suggested he belongs in the HOF. When you resort to hyperbole like that it tells everyone reading your posts that you've lost the argument - as Joey said, you've already decided you don't see the value in what Dubas does, and aren't going to try to change that.

regardless of my hyperbole you're saying is i shouldn't wait until i see tangible evidence that what he's doing is helping the team be successful before i praise him , why's that ?

 

[Joey Hoser]

Dubas may or may not turn into an excellent exec but i'll wait until some actually results before i put him in HOF .

Of course, the standard absurd extremist strawmanning from hotpaws.

I'm not even saying he's great and everything he does works awesome, just pointing out that even if it was, your framing of the situation would prevent you from acknowledging it.

It makes sense to demand results but some people think a little deeper than just looking at whether or not they've won a cup already. Tavares hasn't won anything for NYI yet either but most people are willing to concede he's a pretty good player.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Benn, Palat, Johnson, Klingberg, Stone, Johnny Hockey, etc. Scouting is still far from perfect. Especially when teams overlook certain qualities for others.

Palat really stands out in my mind, wasn't that his 3rd time going through the draft and he still only went in the 6th round?

 

[hotpaws]

Of course, the standard absurd extremist strawmanning from hotpaws.

I'm not even saying he's great and everything he does works awesome, just pointing out that even if it was, your framing of the situation would prevent you from acknowledging it.

It makes sense to demand results but some people think a little deeper than just looking at whether or not they've won a cup already. Tavares hasn't won anything for NYI yet either but most people are willing to concede he's a pretty good player.

Winning a cup is a team achievement , people are conceding JT is a pretty good player because he's actually proven with his play that he's a pretty good player.

I asked what Dubas has done so far to earn praise and i get nothing but speculation . And to be fair, in his position it's hard to gauge what exactly is his influence is on decisons the club makes which is why i said i'll wait until there's tangible results (i.e. promoted to GM) before i pass judgment on his performance .

 

[X66]

Also shows the importance of trading assets when necessary.

Franson trade got us Leipsic and a 1st round pick(that we traded down and turned into Dzierkals, Bracco and Dermott).

That is smart asset management, two expiring pieces(Santo and Franson) got us 4 young assets...

Burke was the worst asset manager I've ever seen for the Leafs. And it's not only the draft picks he gave up, it's the miss management of the cap and not understanding the importance of the ELC. We acquired TOO many players that were either on their second or third contracts...

Funny thing about this, is that the one trade Burke did make for the future(The Versteeg Trade), that got us Percy and Leivo, two of the more promising prospects in the system. Yet we didn't see that enough from him.

Burke made a comment how he could have got a late 1st for MacArthur but didn't make the trade because he didn't want the fans to have to wait, well guess what, he left for free...lol

 

[FrozenJagrt]

according to Burke , Bozak/Hanson/Monster were => to the 2nd and 9th overall he traded

Thankfully we now have a mgmt team that values the draft and seems to know what to do with the picks .

Given Burke's history with the draft (if you don't know what I'm talking about, you might want to take a look), I don't think it's fair to knock him for that.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Also shows the importance of trading assets when necessary.

Franson trade got us Leipsic and a 1st round pick(that we traded down and turned into Dzierkals, Bracco and Dermott).

That is smart asset management, two expiring pieces(Santo and Franson) got us 4 young assets...

Burke was the worst asset manager I've ever seen for the Leafs. And it's not only the draft picks he gave up, it's the miss management of the cap and not understanding the importance of the ELC. We acquired TOO many players that were either on their second or third contracts...

Funny thing about this, is that the one trade Burke did make for the future(The Versteeg Trade), that got us Percy and Leivo, two of the more promising prospects in the system. Yet we didn't see that enough from him.

Burke made a comment how he could have got a late 1st for MacArthur but didn't make the trade because he didn't want the fans to have to wait, well guess what, he left for free...lol

Mac-Grab-Kulemin left for 0 assets

Nonis was pretty bad with asset management too.

He could have kept Komisarek for 1 year, compliance buy out Liles and boom problem solved.

Instead he complianced Komisarek, kept Liles, traded Liles for Gleason and bought out Gleason. Gleason was a more expensive buy out then Liles would have been.

Also trading a better defenseman in Gunnarsson for Polak, and including a 4th + salary retention.

 

[X66]

Mac-Grab-Kulemin left for 0 assets

Nonis was pretty bad with asset management too.

He could have kept Komisarek for 1 year, compliance buy out Liles and boom problem solved.

Instead he complianced Komisarek, kept Liles, traded Liles for Gleason and bought out Gleason. Gleason was a more expensive buy out then Liles would have been.

Also trading a better defenseman in Gunnarsson for Polak, and including a 4th + salary retention.

He learned from the best!

 

[hotpaws]

Also shows the importance of trading assets when necessary.

Franson trade got us Leipsic and a 1st round pick(that we traded down and turned into Dzierkals, Bracco and Dermott).

That is smart asset management, two expiring pieces(Santo and Franson) got us 4 young assets...

Burke was the worst asset manager I've ever seen for the Leafs. And it's not only the draft picks he gave up, it's the miss management of the cap and not understanding the importance of the ELC. We acquired TOO many players that were either on their second or third contracts...

Funny thing about this, is that the one trade Burke did make for the future(The Versteeg Trade), that got us Percy and Leivo, two of the more promising prospects in the system. Yet we didn't see that enough from him.

Burke made a comment how he could have got a late 1st for MacArthur but didn't make the trade because he didn't want the fans to have to wait, well guess what, he left for free...lol

Unfortunately when Burke traded the picks for Kessel it forced him into a win now mode and that's why he didn't trade Mac/Grabo among others . He was too consumed with trying not to weaken the team short term instead of building for the future .

Anyway thankfully he's gone and the new boys in charge seem to have us on the right path , damn it feels good to finally have a few studs to look forward too .