Confirmed with Link: Middleton signs for 3 years x $2.4m AAV

[Circulartheory]

Didn’t/don’t really see the infatuation with him as a player, hopefully with more games under his belt he’ll bring a little more, but there is definitely a chance this turns into a good value with that aav but I don’t see him as a top-4 defensemen on a top tier team.

Personally for me, my infatuation with him was that he didn't look out of place next to Spurgeon while being a big body.

Is Spurgeon that key cog in that duo? Yeah.

But I knew he was going to be cost-controlled, give a good option on the PK and distribute more of the talent on the defensive pairings. So it's less about the player himself but more he allows the team to do in regards to pairings and cap.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

Personally for me, my infatuation with him was that he didn't look out of place next to Spurgeon while being a big body.

Is Spurgeon that key cog in that duo? Yeah.

But I knew he was going to be cost-controlled, give a good option on the PK and distribute more of the talent on the defensive pairings. So it's less about the player himself but more he allows the team to do in regards to pairings and cap.

I understand the thought and your position, it just rubs me the wrong way that the collective justification of this signing has zero to due with the player and more to due with the quality of the other 3 LHD on the roster. Not looking out of place isn’t exactly a rousing endorsement.

He doesn’t really bring much to the PK, 5th/6th most used defensemen in that roll and he was one of two defensemen on the team with an xGAR and xWAR in the negatives. (Benn)

Aside from the size, mustache, and assuming a good locker room guy, the on-ice product doesn’t justify the aav. Yet.

 

[Wabit]

I think for the next few years, I agree that’s the case but this season the stats show otherwise.

xGA/60

Spurgeon/Goli = 2.05
Spurgeon/Middleton = 2.41

xGF/60

Spurgeon/Goli = 2.65
Spurgeon/Middleton = 2.45


But the more I think on this since the announcement, the more I think we’ve just mismanaged the defensive situation as a whole.

Right now, Middleton is not a $2.5M/year player. In fact he isn’t close based on every analytic, projection, and fancy stat there is. Could he be? Maybe he will be, but the only reason I’m seeing anyone justify this contract is because he’s the best option out of what we have to play with Spurgeon. That’s the core issue.

At this point, we had to solidify someone in that role, and we overpaid an RFA to do it but what if we didn’t have $3.2M tied up in Goligoski/Merrill, or $4.25M in Goligoski/Kulikov?

Middleton would be a GREAT bottom paring defensemen with Addison, and we would have a good chunk of cap to sign/trade for an actual top 4 defensemen. Now we’re relying on a 26YO with less than a full NHL season of service and has 17 career points. Like I said in my original post, it could end up being valuable and I don’t blame Middleton for this, but rather our infatuation with old vets that I’m sure are good locker room guys.

Kulikov move would be helpful, but he’s an expiring UFA, makes too much, and has a M-NTC. Not getting much there.

Look at the minutes and starts for the different pairings. Spurgeon was a 58.6% o-zone start with Goli and a 48.68% with Middleton. I want to say Spurgeon/Middleton were getting tougher matchups too, but I don't know of a way to quantify that.

I will say that Middleton looked uncomfortable with the team systems when he first got here. He got better as time went by, but still did SJS things and not MN things with the puck. He was very solid in the Playoffs though.

 

[Wabit]

I understand the thought and your position, it just rubs me the wrong way that the collective justification of this signing has zero to due with the player and more to due with the quality of the other 3 LHD on the roster. Not looking out of place isn’t exactly a rousing endorsement.

He doesn’t really bring much to the PK, 5th/6th most used defensemen in that roll and he was one of two defensemen on the team with an xGAR and xWAR in the negatives. (Benn)

Aside from the size, mustache, and assuming a good locker room guy, the on-ice product doesn’t justify the aav. Yet.

The PK ToI doesn't bother me from last season. SJS runs their wheel PK and those coverages are very different than whatever it was MN was doing on their PK. I think there was very little practice time spent on the PK (or anything for that matter) after the TDL too.

He needs to earn his contract then next 3 years, for sure, but I don't think it'll be a tall order. He could also turn into a pumpkin and become another Pateryn.

 

[TaLoN]

Look at the minutes and starts for the different pairings. Spurgeon was a 58.6% o-zone start with Goli and a 48.68% with Middleton. I want to say Spurgeon/Middleton were getting tougher matchups too, but I don't know of a way to quantify that.

I will say that Middleton looked uncomfortable with the team systems when he first got here. He got better as time went by, but still did SJS things and not MN things with the puck. He was very solid in the Playoffs though.

Middleton was fine. He went from +3 to +10 in 21 regular season games. Yeah, I know +/- isn't everything... but it isn't nothing.
Goligosky had completely burned out and become worthless (hence the scratches) and Middleton was an instant upgrade in the top 4 at that point.
Yes, Goli played well early in the season which padded his /60 stats, but you look at his play leading up to us acquiring Middleton, it was not at all very good.

 

[IAHockey25]

Middleton was fine. He went from +3 to +10 in 21 regular season games. Yeah, I know +/- isn't everything... but it isn't nothing.
Goligosky had completely burned out and become worthless (hence the scratches) and Middleton was an instant upgrade in the top 4 at that point.
Yes, Goli played well early in the season which padded his /60 stats, but you look at his play leading up to us acquiring Middleton, it was not at all very good.

Do you think the Goligoski signing had alot to do with possibly replacing 2-3 defensemen in the next 3 years and him as leader to the kids coming up. I look at it that way and believe its a smart move because of it.

He may not have the same level of play but the knowledge he can pass on will be unbelievable. So many people miss that when they think of lockerroom culture. It's not just getting along but the willingness to make others better.

Something that was lacking in the previous years

 

[TaLoN]

Do you think the Goligoski signing had alot to do with possibly replacing 2-3 defensemen in the next 3 years and him as leader to the kids coming up. I look at it that way and believe its a smart move because of it.

He may not have the same level of play but the knowledge he can pass on will be unbelievable. So many people miss that when they think of lockerroom culture. It's not just getting along but the willingness to make others better.

Something that was lacking in the previous years

I think it was more GMBG saying he would do something prior to signing him, and then following up on it no matter how poorly Goli ended up playing.
GMBG was keeping his word.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

The PK ToI doesn't bother me from last season. SJS runs their wheel PK and those coverages are very different than whatever it was MN was doing on their PK. I think there was very little practice time spent on the PK (or anything for that matter) after the TDL too.

He needs to earn his contract then next 3 years, for sure, but I don't think it'll be a tall order. He could also turn into a pumpkin and become another Pateryn.

I appreciate you actually speaking about the Middleton as a player as opposed to just saying we have no better options. My entire issue with the defense doesn’t revolve around Middleton in any way, even at this aav.

It’s that we botched the other LHD pretty badly, and it’s forcing us to elevate someone who would be an excellent bottom pairing defensemen to a more prominent role where he likely won’t be outmatched but, isn’t going to bring much else.

Brodin-Dumba
$3-$4M defensemen- Spurgeon
Middleton-Addison

There 16 defensemen (signed) currently making between $3M and $4.2M in this league, and I’d take 14 of them over Middleton in the top 4.

I think it was more GMBG saying he would do something prior to signing him, and then following up on it no matter how poorly Goli ended up playing.
GMBG was keeping his word.

I think it’s this too, but I hate it.

 

[TaLoN]

It’s that we botched the other LHD pretty badly, and it’s forcing us to elevate someone who would be an excellent bottom pairing defensemen to a more prominent role where he likely won’t be outmatched but, isn’t going to bring much else.

I disagree with your take. I think he's better than you give him credit for. Is he going to show up on the scoreboard a ton? Probably not, but he's still effective in transition, he has a solid overall game, and brings a physical element few of the rest of the D bring outside of Dumba, but unlike Dumba, he has more size to back it up.

I see Middleton as a solid top 4 guy, who would only be a bottom pair guy if we get some serious graduations from our prospect pool.

This isn't a bad thing. He's the kind of guy who, as you bring other guys up, allows you to have solid depth of guys who can functionally play up the lineup without being a liability... unlike the guys currently behind him.

He's more physical than Soucy, but isn't much of a downgrade from him overall either.

 

[Wabit]

Do you think the Goligoski signing had alot to do with possibly replacing 2-3 defensemen in the next 3 years and him as leader to the kids coming up. I look at it that way and believe its a smart move because of it.

He may not have the same level of play but the knowledge he can pass on will be unbelievable. So many people miss that when they think of lockerroom culture. It's not just getting along but the willingness to make others better.

Something that was lacking in the previous years

I think there was a handshake deal in place when Goli signed his $5m x 1 to re-sign for a lesser amount this offseason. GMBG was just following though with that.

I don't see the leadership thing for the young guys as much of thing. The kids really aren't there yet in their development and will all be in minors next seasons.

I would say it is more that the GM wants his own snitch (lack of a better term) in the locker room to tell him how things are than a trusted mentor type of role.

 

[IAHockey25]

I think it was more GMBG saying he would do something prior to signing him, and then following up on it no matter how poorly Goli ended up playing.
GMBG was keeping his word.

Maybe, but I think BG sees the importance of Mentor Leadership and makes decisions based on that.

I think that's the right way to look at it too, but that doesn't mean anyone has to. And it's not like he brings negative value on the ice for his contract.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

I disagree with your take. I think he's better than you give him credit for. Is he going to show up on the scoreboard a ton? Probably not, but he's still effective in transition, he has a solid overall game, and brings a physical element few of the rest of the D bring outside of Dumba, but unlike Dumba, he has more size to back it up.

I respect your opinion but I can’t find a single shred of evidence in analytics, nor the eye test from last season that allows me to agree. I didn’t see anything in transition personally, doesn’t have a ton of PK experience, zero PP experience, and while I think there is far more to physicality than just the NHL tracked hit numbers, those aren’t anything crazy either.

Regardless. My point still stands that we could be in a far better position than we are right now, if other LHD were handled properly.

 

[IAHockey25]

I respect your opinion but I can’t find a single shred of evidence in analytics, nor the eye test from last season that allows me to agree. I didn’t see anything in transition personally, doesn’t have a ton of PK experience, zero PP experience, and while I think there is far more to physicality than just the NHL tracked hit numbers, those aren’t anything crazy either.

Regardless. My point still stands that we could be in a far better position than we are right now, if other LHD were handled properly.

You could be right unless money is needed elsewhere i.e. goalie

You still need depth because 82 games is a long season

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

You could be right unless money is needed elsewhere i.e. goalie

You still need depth because 82 games is a long season

Definitely.

But ~$8M in 4 bottom pairing LHD isn’t the type of depth I had in mind.

 

[Wabit]

I appreciate you actually speaking about the Middleton as a player as opposed to just saying we have no better options. My entire issue with the defense doesn’t revolve around Middleton in any way, even at this aav.

It’s that we botched the other LHD pretty badly, and it’s forcing us to elevate someone who would be an excellent bottom pairing defensemen to a more prominent role where he likely won’t be outmatched but, isn’t going to bring much else.

Brodin-Dumba
$3-$4M defensemen- Spurgeon
Middleton-Addison

There 16 defensemen (signed) currently making between $3M and $4.2M in this league, and I’d take 14 of them over Middleton in the top 4.

I'd take a lot of d-men signed for less than the aav of Spurgeon and Dumba. I don't have a problem with the Middleton or Merrill contracts. I think they are fine as a bottom pair and a pressbox d-man. I would also have no issues pairing either of them with Addison as a nice 3rd pairing. The Goli and Kulikov deals are the bad ones to have for the team.

Just my personal opinion, but I think GMBG has a hard time getting FAs to sign in MN. Cole and Bonino left for teams offering similar contract. MAF and D-Lo haven't been re-signed (yet?). It took an overpay to get Goli. McBain, Lindberg, Sturm, and Fiala all turned down contracts offered. So ideally you get a FA d-man to fill in the 2nd pair for the same/less cost as Goli + Kulikov, but it's not a guarantee that one wants to sign in MN. That how you get stuck trying to make due with the leftovers.

 

[IAHockey25]

Definitely.

But ~$8M in 4 bottom pairing LHD isn’t the type of depth I had in mind.

Well Both Goligoski and Kulikov can play both RHD and LHD

When you have Brodin, Dumba and Spurgeon miss a combined 50 plus games due to injury you might want guys who can replace them on a competitive level so to me that's not wasted cap space.

You and I just differ on roster construction. No biggie

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Great signing, guy is going to be out there playing the physical game for our team as needed, gets some hazard pay and we have stability and a good development pairing guy in the future. Who cares what partner he gets slightly more time with in the 1st year of this contract? He will be on the ice when we need a physical net-front defender, a useful skillset we are otherwise lacking. I think team practices will do him a ton of good, his comfort level already increased drastically over the final stretch. I hope the coaches sent him home with a to do list that included practicing his shot, the LHD on this team get plenty of opportunities to shoot from the forwards low to high play style.

There are options, Goligoski and he will likely see time up and down the lineup. All of these D men showed that they were capable for stretches last year, when they were fresh. But the ludicrous stretch of games to end the season definitely took its toll, especially for the D men. Hopefully a committee approach and more balanced schedule can help keep this group to play fresh and clean hockey.

 

[Lapa]

Good deal

 

[ShortPeter6]

Can both of you dig up your posts where you said that his contract was too low when he signed it? Just curious?

They would probably be complaining it was too much.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

They would probably be complaining it was too much.

I called it "tolerable", for the record.

 

[ShortPeter6]

Maybe, but I think BG sees the importance of Mentor Leadership and makes decisions based on that.

I think that's the right way to look at it too, but that doesn't mean anyone has to. And it's not like he brings negative value on the ice for his contract.

I think anything more than league min is to much. He is only going to get slower and weaker. He brings nothing to the PP and all his 2nd assist points came from playing top line minutes with Spurge. The 2nd half of last year he was terrible.