Olympics: medal predictions (no NHLers)

[Lambo]

Finland and Russia are the favourites for the gold, Russia is by far the strongest team with their player material and Finland has the best coaching & chemistry + Finland has a Gold and a Silver from the last two IIHF champs so the Gold and Silver will be fought between these two teams unless they face & eliminate the other before the finals.

Even on paper, Finland isn't that bad. They have top players in the KHL and NL. Big talents in their own league.

 

[Czechboy]

I have to think Russia is the huge favorite. The U.S. will likely ice a hodgepodge that may have some talent but I wouldn't expect much.

No AHL is a decided disadvantage to US and Canada. Tourney would look a lot different.

 

[jj cale]

Please do!

My answer is Canada - 3 back to back best on bests, 5 of last 6 finals at the Skoda cup and the team they would've sent to these Olympics was ridiculous! Plus the next 2 1OV are Canadian. Results and 'on paper' are both there. FTR.. they could've sent their best, lost in the quarters and I'd still say Canada today.

Eg. US definitely has 'on paper' but they don't have that many great results at the senior level
Finns now have 'on paper' and 'results' but they've never gotten their best 'on paper' team together while getting tremendous results with their C teams (which is what they're now sending to the Olympics). I feel for them the most to be honest. I was dying to see their team and I'm not Finnish.

I actually feel the Russians are making some serious waves and doing a lot of things right!
1. they have an elite goalie factory that is unmatched
2. they only sent Russians that stayed in Russia to U20 and are definitely medal favorites
3. starting to see some good russian D's in the NHL and coming soon

Just need to figure out Centre.

No Canada at Spengler absolutely sucks! I love watching Czechs on most teams, the Czech team and the former Oilers who are all over that tourney. The matches against Canada are must watch! I could watch a Davos vs Canada match all day. Especially when it was that wizard looking dude coaching Davos! He was entertaining.

I'll give a more detailed response later when I get done with some errands I have to knock off before this mornings U.S-Finland tilt but in a nutshell it's a grading system heavily emphasizing consistency of results at the senior level, not juniors or under 18's and all that jazz.

 

[Bure80]

Germany made the finals worth watching in 2018. Because even in a tournament without NHL'ers, it would've been pretty cool to see them win. Hopefully they again, or one of Slovakia/Latvia/Denmark, can be that unique surprise story this time.

I doubt that Germany can repeat 2018. Offense has a similar qualitiy as 2018 but defense is a lot weaker without Ehrhoff and Seider. Seider was awesome for his age. "You" saw that he will be a special player. So calm for his age.

 

[Czechboy]

I'll give a more detailed response later when I get done with some errands I have to knock off before this mornings U.S-Finland tilt but in a nutshell it's a grading system heavily emphasizing consistency of results at the senior level, not juniors or under 18's and all that jazz.

I'm seriously in shock that a north american based fan would not include junior results.

I don't think they should be factored either. However, most the North American fans that tell me US is number 2 in the world at the Senior level IMMEDIATELY go to naming NHL players that can't go to the tourney and U18 results.lol


Using senior results is also skewed since none of the tourneys are even close to fair. Eg. these Olympics are seriously skewed against Canada and US if they can't send their AHL stars.

 

[Rob]

I hope Finland finally gets that gold.

 

[Elias40]

You mentioned it doesn't reflect how long Sweden has been playing. Czechs have been playing hockey for a while now, so has Canada.lol

You mention Czech chances go up... True... But there is not one Czech fan who is happy about this. We wanted to see Pastrnak necas and Hertl not a few zohornas and Gulas. Although, I will cheer for them to the end now!

Fairweather fans ...

Also... A swede complaining about their team when Canada and US may send retired players to play for them. If we are talking medal chances... Sweden wasn't even close to being the most affected. You were a strong medal contender before and you are still a medal contender now. Or did you think gold was a lock in the best on best? 4 other countries had a real big say in that.

You did notice Germany taking Russia to the finals last time, right?

Take the best NHL players from Sweden and Czech Republic and let them ten play games. Nine of them wil be won bythe Swedes. Give the best players from Europe both teams and the Czechs will win six. If we compare the best players from the NHL in Finland and Sweden, the Swedes will win more matches , the selection from Europe and Finland will be better off. And Russia will beat Sweden seven times, if they takes the best of ther KHL.

I won't count Canada or the US, because the US selection in Europe never plays matches, Canada in the Spengeler Cup does, and I will play one EHT tournament in the Olympic season. And yes, I know Germany was a minute away from the gold medal, but it's simply a tournament. I 'm just saying that Sweden doesn't have enough good players in Europe to compete with Russia, Finland and Czech Republic. These three nations have a better team than Sweden and I do not even count on a medal. And when Sweden wins it, I will not think has better players in Europe than Finland or your nation. Sweden may again disappoint in the quarterfinals as four years back against Germany. And tha's also my tip that they will be eliminated again in the quarterfinals.

 

[Czechboy]

Take the best NHL players from Sweden and Czech Republic and let them ten play games. Nine of them wil be won bythe Swedes. Give the best players from Europe both teams and the Czechs will win six. If we compare the best players from the NHL in Finland and Sweden, the Swedes will win more matches , the selection from Europe and Finland will be better off. And Russia will beat Sweden seven times, if they takes the best of ther KHL.

I won't count Canada or the US, because the US selection in Europe never plays matches, Canada in the Spengeler Cup does, and I will play one EHT tournament in the Olympic season. And yes, I know Germany was a minute away from the gold medal, but it's simply a tournament. I 'm just saying that Sweden doesn't have enough good players in Europe to compete with Russia, Finland and Czech Republic. These three nations have a better team than Sweden and I do not even count on a medal. And when Sweden wins it, I will not think has better players in Europe than Finland or your nation. Sweden may again disappoint in the quarterfinals as four years back against Germany. And tha's also my tip that they will be eliminated again in the quarterfinals.

I don't agree with most your premises. It's not personal. I just don't see it.

Swedes are on a different level than Czechs so I wouldn't use their success rate against Czechs as an indiactor of anything. SEL better than Extraliga. Champions League results. Heck, every single level. There is probably a U16 Swede team beating the shit out of a Czech U17 team right now.lol

However, if you are complaining that you somehow got adversely affected by this... at absolute BEST you are the third most affected by the change. Canada and US get totally screwed by this because they can't use their best non NHL leagues. AHL. Or second best - NCAA. Or third best - CHL. If they could include those players then we'd be back to a big 5 again.

Russia probably benefits the most as they are now gold favorites when before they were medal contenders. I'm not saying they wouldn't have won before but it would've been harder for them than it is now.

Finns are amazingly about the same - a gold at either best on best or non NHL is about equally as likely.

The Germans losing Seider, Drai and Grubauer has to sting a lot!
No Anderssen or Ehlers for Denmark?
Swiss lost a lot of top 6 talent.
Czechs went from a tiny chance of medalling to a 50% chance but, again, we all wanted best on best. The Czech federation isn't high fiving right now. I really wanted to see our best Czechs together even if they lost '9 out of 10' times to the Swedes.

I guess I'm just not seeing Sweden as massive victims here. I see Canada and US as victims of this big time. I think Russia and Czech chances changed.

Sweden - I'm honestly asking and please let me know.

In your opinion, what were Swedens chances at gold in the best on best?

In your opinion, what are Swedens chances at gold in this new non NHL format?

My answer is the same chance btw. I think you were as likely to medal or win gold in both tournaments. And by that I think you had a 20% chance at either format.

 

[Czechboy]

Take the best NHL players from Sweden and Czech Republic and let them ten play games. Nine of them wil be won bythe Swedes. Give the best players from Europe both teams and the Czechs will win six. If we compare the best players from the NHL in Finland and Sweden, the Swedes will win more matches , the selection from Europe and Finland will be better off. And Russia will beat Sweden seven times, if they takes the best of ther KHL.

I won't count Canada or the US, because the US selection in Europe never plays matches, Canada in the Spengeler Cup does, and I will play one EHT tournament in the Olympic season. And yes, I know Germany was a minute away from the gold medal, but it's simply a tournament. I 'm just saying that Sweden doesn't have enough good players in Europe to compete with Russia, Finland and Czech Republic. These three nations have a better team than Sweden and I do not even count on a medal. And when Sweden wins it, I will not think has better players in Europe than Finland or your nation. Sweden may again disappoint in the quarterfinals as four years back against Germany. And tha's also my tip that they will be eliminated again in the quarterfinals.

Oh.. and the KHL China team is looking a lot better now. I was only planning on skipping 2 games for the best on best - Canada - China and US - China. Now those games have a chance of being good! So China has also gained an advantage. They may lose 4 to 1 instead of 40 to 1.

 

[ViD]

That is an NHL all Star team. I had no idea they were that stacked! Who was the starting goalie if those 2 were 2 and 3?

Vasily Koshechkin, he was a top goalie in the KHL back then

 

[Czechboy]

Vasily Koshechkin, he was a top goalie in the KHL back then

Thank you. Kind of crazy that both the backups have become very good NHL goalies. That roster was outstanding.

 

[Elias40]

I don't agree with most your premises. It's not personal. I just don't see it.

Swedes are on a different level than Czechs so I wouldn't use their success rate against Czechs as an indiactor of anything. SEL better than Extraliga. Champions League results. Heck, every single level. There is probably a U16 Swede team beating the shit out of a Czech U17 team right now.lol

However, if you are complaining that you somehow got adversely affected by this... at absolute BEST you are the third most affected by the change. Canada and US get totally screwed by this because they can't use their best non NHL leagues. AHL. Or second best - NCAA. Or third best - CHL. If they could include those players then we'd be back to a big 5 again.

Russia probably benefits the most as they are now gold favorites when before they were medal contenders. I'm not saying they wouldn't have won before but it would've been harder for them than it is now.

Finns are amazingly about the same - a gold at either best on best or non NHL is about equally as likely.

The Germans losing Seider, Drai and Grubauer has to sting a lot!
No Anderssen or Ehlers for Denmark?
Swiss lost a lot of top 6 talent.
Czechs went from a tiny chance of medalling to a 50% chance but, again, we all wanted best on best. The Czech federation isn't high fiving right now. I really wanted to see our best Czechs together even if they lost '9 out of 10' times to the Swedes.

I guess I'm just not seeing Sweden as massive victims here. I see Canada and US as victims of this big time. I think Russia and Czech chances changed.

Sweden - I'm honestly asking and please let me know.

In your opinion, what were Swedens chances at gold in the best on best?

In your opinion, what are Swedens chances at gold in this new non NHL format?

My answer is the same chance btw. I think you were as likely to medal or win gold in both tournaments. And by that I think you had a 20% chance at either format.

You underestimate a lot of Czech players in Europe. And yes, in the long run, Swedish team have been more successful in the Champions Hockey League, but at the NT level, the difference is not what you describe. The Czechs also have good players, Spacek in Frölunda, Kovar in Zug, Jasek in Lahti..
If you look h2h matches in U16, the win-loss ratio will be about the same, maybe in U17 the Swedes have a slight upper hand. They have dominated since the U18, so the Czechia is not so bad at it.

At the beginning, I wrote that the non-participation of NHL players would affect Sweden the most from European countries, I did not write a word about Canada. Yeah, NA teams are the most affected, I'm not arguing about that.
Wing gold with NHL players, so Sweden's chance are 10-15% for me..without NHL players - 5%. Medals with NHL players - 35%, without NHL players - 20%. It's just my guess, I guess you won't agree. Canada is the top favorite for gold if it does its best. Russia is in Canada's positio in the European selection, but more teams have a chance to win gold. So the story of Germany cannot be repeat by another team if the top5 has the best on the ice. I just don't think that in the tournament like OG Sweden, they will play so well repeatedly that they advance to the medal match. I trust your team more.

 

[karhukissa]

Jukka Jalonen + European players = gold. Now when i said that, it's probably not going to happen

But still:
1.Finland
2. Russia
3.Switzerland

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Gold: Russia
Silver: Finland
Bronze: Czech Republic

 

[Eye of Ra]

I saw several users mention Sweden as a medal-canidate. I wonder what there argument is. We are a punching bag in EHT year after year.

If we go back 10-15 years then Sweden without NHLers was still very good, but things has changed.

 

[Elvs]

Take the best NHL players from Sweden and Czech Republic and let them ten play games. Nine of them wil be won bythe Swedes.

So had the Olympics been best on best, you think book keepers would have given 10x the money back, if Czechia beat Sweden?

Okay then!

 

[IceHockeyDude]

3 of these:

Russia
Sweden
Czechia
Finland

 

[mattihp]

Russia won't be eligable, if thwy were I would hold them favourites. Would really a gold medal for Olympic Athletes of Russia again mean that much? The first olympics after the ban will be huge for them.

Sweden, USA or Czechia beats Finland in the finals.

The US and the Czechs don't have amazing players, but I think they will do well. The US with sheer will and Czechia has some interesting things brewing.

 

[ZEBROA]

Sadly Finland gold, Sweden out of medal chance.

 

[Stubu]

Easily Finland winning the gold.

On second thought,