D-Rock
Registered User
Who would you say publishes the better yearbook/prospect guide?
Thanks,
Dana
Thanks,
Dana
I like Mckeens this year. Profile on every player and prospect does it for me.happy hour said:Score one for The Hockey News. I like their format better.
AgentNaslund said:THN. Lethonen is not better then Ovechkin and Crosby.
I think he's referring to Lehtonen being McKeens Calder Trophy favorite, which is far more reasonable than THN's Crosby masturbation.Hyped said:You must be referring to the Forecaster because McKeens has Crosby #1 and Ovechkin #2. Every magazine will have their longshots, but McKeens is the most reasonable by far...
PecaFan said:Interesting, I was just looking at this last night. I'm just preparing some stuff for this year, and I decided to take a look at last season's accuracy for the various books. Something I've always meant to go back and look at, just never got to it.
I had entered most predictions in the books, but not all the scrubs predicted for 1-5-6pts etc. Here are some numbers for the various mags (forwards only, points only, no breakdown by goals/assists).
McKeens: 274 predictions, 209 over (76.3%), 60 under (21.9%), 5 correct (1.8%)
THN Ultimate: 238 predictions, 169 over (71.0%), 61 under (25.6%), 8 correct (3.4%)
Forecaster: 248 predictions, 180 over (72.6%), 64 under (25.8%), 4 correct (1.6%)
How over-optimistic are they:
McKeens: 146 over by 10 or more points, including 76 out by 20+.
THN: 114 over by 10 or more points, including 53 out by 20+.
Forecaster: 124 over by 10 or more points, including 57 out by 20+.
Exceeded expectations (aka how many nice surprises did you get):
McKeens: 41 outscored prediction by 5+ points, including 24 by 10+, 6 by 20+.
THN: 49 outscored prediction by 5+ points, including 24 by 10+, 6 by 20+.
Forecaster: 50 outscored prediction by 5+ points, including 35 by 10+, 12 by 20+.
I find this amazing, 70+% of the predictions are too high, while only around 25% are too low. I would think you'd want to be more closer to 50/50 than that, since you're more likely to be upset if you draft guys, and none of them come close to meeting the predictions. I'd rather draft a guy expecting 50 points, and he gets 60, than drafting guys early for 70 points and they get 60.
Of the three books last time, I'd say THN was #1, Forecaster #2, and McKeens #3.
Oilhitch said:Yeah I like the Forecaster too. When will it be available on-line?
Hyped said:Ahhh, statistics. Make 'em look like you want to. That's the great ability of statistics.
Obviously, when McKeens is taking 4th line fringe players and giving them projections, there is a good possibility that they will be over-estimating. Sometimes those guys don't even see a game for that team. If we take those "over-estimates" out, I think we'll see a whole new model.
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McKeens THN Forecaster
Over 197 (77.0%) 178 (69.5%) 186 (72.7%)
Under 56 (21.9%) 70 (27.3%) 66 (25.8%)
Correct 3 ( 1.2%) 8 ( 3.1%) 4 (1.6%)
Over 20+ 86 (33.6%) 64 (25.0%) 69 (27.0%)
Over 10+ 142 (55.5%) 125 (48.8%) 134 (52.3%)
Under 5+ 40 (15.6%) 54 (21.1%) 52 (20.3%)
Under 10+ 21 ( 8.2%) 28 (10.9%) 38 (14.8%)
Under 20+ 5 ( 2.0%) 7 (2.7%) 11 (4.3%)
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Vinland said:I downloaded the forecaster and it is by far the best.