Player Discussion Matthew Tkachuk - "That Face You Just Want to Punch"

[Kranix]

Gaudreau is not even close to being on the same plane as Patrick Kane. Patrick Kane makes any center he plays with look like an all-star. Johnny has yet to have any sustained success apart from Monahan. Johnny was tried with Lindholm and Backs again last season and after no returns was returned to playing with Monahan. Contrary to the common belief around here Gaudreau's success is more dependent on Monahan than the other way around.

No matter if the Hawks played Kane with Toews(56 GF), Anisimov(79 GF), Strome(25 GF), or Nick Smaltz(47 GF) Kane produces. Johnny has not hit double digits with any other center with Goals for a line in the last 3 seasons combined.

SO the statement about Gaudreau maintaining effectiveness in the coming years equating to Kane's longevity is complete garbage.

He makes Monahan look purdy good.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I don't know that extending our window is really a priority for a team with a nucleus as young as ours. The main thing that needs to happen to make sure we have a good window of contention is that Giordano needs to be replaced, though realistically there are examples of top defencemen in the league remaining leaders on their team into their 40s, so even that may not be as pressing a concern as we may think.

At 26 years old and at his size and style of play, Gaudreau isn't going to get worse all of a sudden any time soon. He's the kind of player that I think you can comfortably lock up to his mid-30s and not worry too much about it becoming an albatross, similar to Patrick Kane.

I would imagine we will have 2 windows. One now, which will be closed by cap casualities/losing vets (Gio in particular). We will then have a 2nd window as our young nucleus reaches their prime(s).

 

[Kranix]

I would imagine we will have 2 windows. One now, which will be closed by cap casualities/losing vets (Gio in particular). We will then have a 2nd window as our young nucleus reaches their prime(s).

Isn't prime 23-28 or something? They're pretty much in it now dawg. Tkachuk and Hanifin almost.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Isn't prime 23-28 or something? They're pretty much in it now dawg. Tkachuk and Hanifin almost.

Scoring prime for forwards, overall prime though? I would say later 20's at least for guys that develop to be 'elite' like Kopitar, Giroux and so on.

 

[Dack]

Remember when Gaudreau used to drag Josh Jorris and Markus Granlund up the ice?

 

[Rangediddy]

Imagine thinking that Gaudreau is more dependent on Monahan than the other way around

Side note I know we’re just speculating but Ottawa isn’t going to move Tkachuk or White. They’re cheap af but that’s their next wave. Chabot/Tkachuk/White/Formenton etc

They aren’t going to move them for older pending UFAs or for lesser prospects

I agree with this too... Ottawa won't take Gaudreau for 3 unmotivated seasons and he's for sure gone. He's not going to make them immediately competitive.

I think this would have to be a 3 way trade involving Philly where OTT gets Nolan Patrick, some picks, maybe someone like Sanheim... just depends on what Philly is willing to give up for Gaudreau. They are still a competitive team and Johnny would be a HUGE add for them, especially playing for him fave team with his boy Hayes.

Gaudreau - Giroux - Voracek would be filthy.

Melnyk also seems like the kind of owner who would push for a Tkachuk trade if he's going to need to pay him several million.

 

[Anglesmith]

Remember when Gaudreau used to drag Josh Jorris and Markus Granlund up the ice?

No no, that was just Jiri Hudler being all-world for a season by pure coincidence. Gaudreau was a passenger.

 

[Anglesmith]

I would imagine we will have 2 windows. One now, which will be closed by cap casualities/losing vets (Gio in particular). We will then have a 2nd window as our young nucleus reaches their prime(s).

I don't know that we've ever really seen a team close a window due to cap casualties. Teams like Washington, San Jose, Tampa etc. constantly have to shuffle and kick guys down the road to reach the cap, but the strength of the nucleus just doesn't allow a significant drop-off.

 

[SKRusty]

Remember when Gaudreau used to drag Josh Jorris and Markus Granlund up the ice?

Gaudreau has not generated offense with any other center in the last 3 years. Period. After Monahan went down the season previous Johnny had 2 points and both those points came in the final game of the season on Jankowski's big night. Playing with Bennett and Backlund previously Johnny did nothing.

I am sorry to say, but this is one of the worst takes I've read in a while. The only thing that Kane has on Johnny is the shooting. That's it.

Let me ask you this, if you were to remove Johnny or Monahan from the Flames, which one would the Flames be better off with off the team?

Stats are not takes. Johnny has not been able to put up points with other centers period. Patrick Kane does.

Monahan is the better player to keep because he is able to produce away from Johnny. Johnny STOPS producing without Monahan.

We will all see it for ourselves when Chucky and Sean are teamed up and Lindholm and Johnny are teamed up for lines 1 and 2 early this season. I am almost giddy with anticipation.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

I don't know that we've ever really seen a team close a window due to cap casualties. Teams like Washington, San Jose, Tampa etc. constantly have to shuffle and kick guys down the road to reach the cap, but the strength of the nucleus just doesn't allow a significant drop-off.

Uh Chicago says hello?

They lost how many key guys or even depth guys due to cap? Versteeg, Buff, Brower, Bolland, Panarin, Hjalmarsson, Sharp, Ladd, Campbell, Niemi, Bickell, Stalhberg, Shaw, Kruger, Leddy, Frolik, Raanta, Darling, etc were all lost due to salary cap issues. Most of them were still at least good to great at the time they were lost too.

I have a hard time believing Chicago doesn't challenge for at least one more cup if they hadn't lost so many key pieces like Buff and gutted their depth.

 

[Rangediddy]

Uh Chicago says hello?

They lost how many key guys or even depth guys due to cap? Versteeg, Buff, Brower, Bolland, Panarin, Hjalmarsson, Sharp, Ladd, Campbell, Niemi, Bickell, Stalhberg, Shaw, Kruger, Leddy, Frolik, Raanta, Darling, etc were all lost due to salary cap issues. Most of them were still at least good to great at the time they were lost too.

But losing most of those players didn't make Chicago a worse team. They even won another couple cups after a bunch of those guys were gone. Chicago's window has closed because their core got too old. Toews isn't Toews anymore, Keith isn't Keith anymore, Hossa's gone, Crawford's brain is scrambled and Seabrook is done. Chicago is the perfect example of a window NOT closing due to cap constraints.

 

[Dack]

Gaudreau has not generated offense with any other center in the last 3 years. Period. After Monahan went down the season previous Johnny had 2 points and both those points came in the final game of the season on Jankowski's big night. Playing with Bennett and Backlund previously Johnny did nothing.



Stats are not takes. Johnny has not been able to put up points with other centers period. Patrick Kane does.

Monahan is the better player to keep because he is able to produce away from Johnny. Johnny STOPS producing without Monahan.

We will all see it for ourselves when Chucky and Sean are teamed up and Lindholm and Johnny are teamed up for lines 1 and 2 early this season. I am almost giddy with anticipation.

LMAO

Unfortunately I don't know of a site that has players rates of production when together and away from each other but I can pull up on ice stats from when Gaudreau and Monahan have been separated.


Here is a Wowy from 2016-2017 through this season all stats are relative to the team.

Player	Toi (mins)	CF% Rel	XGF% Rel	HDCF% Rel	GF% Rel
Together	2706	2.1	1.6	1.3	7.1
Monahan without Gaudreau	517	-6.7	-10.7	-13	-14.1
Gaudreau without Monahan	753	-3.7	-0.2	0.5	-7.23

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In the last 3 years when away from Gaudreau Monahan has struggled far more than vice versa. Admittedly Gaudreau has struggled too but not to the same extent.

This is this year same rules apply.

	Toi	CF%	XGF%	HDCF%	GF%
Together	1051	-0.15	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3
Monahan without Gaudreau	88.4 very small sample	-2.11	-6.5	-3.3	-40.2
Gaudreau without Monahan	214	3.2	6.3	5.9	-0.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Monahan gets eaten alive away from Gaudreau. Gaudreau played great when centered by Derek Ryan.

 

[crackdown44]

LMAO

Unfortunately I don't know of a site that has players rates of production when together and away from each other but I can pull up on ice stats from when Gaudreau and Monahan have been separated.


Here is a Wowy from 2016-2017 through this season all stats are relative to the team.

Player	Toi (mins)	CF% Rel	XGF% Rel	HDCF% Rel	GF% Rel
Together	2706	2.1	1.6	1.3	7.1
Monahan without Gaudreau	517	-6.7	-10.7	-13	-14.1
Gaudreau without Monahan	753	-3.7	-0.2	0.5	-7.23

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In the last 3 years when away from Gaudreau Monahan has struggled far more than vice versa. Admittedly Gaudreau has struggled too but not to the same extent.

This is this year same rules apply.

	Toi	CF%	XGF%	HDCF%	GF%
Together	1051	-0.15	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3
Monahan without Gaudreau	88.4 very small sample	-2.11	-6.5	-3.3	-40.2
Gaudreau without Monahan	214	3.2	6.3	5.9	-0.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Monahan gets eaten alive away from Gaudreau. Gaudreau played great when centered by Derek Ryan.

sTaTs aRe nOt tAkEs

 

[Dack]

sTaTs aRe nOt tAkEs

It always hinges on the smallest sample size imaginable too. The new "evidence" is a 5 game stint at the end of a miserable run where the Flames as a whole shot like 3%, Johnny's dad had just had a heart attack and he had Mark f***ing Jankowski centering the 1st line.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I don't know that we've ever really seen a team close a window due to cap casualties. Teams like Washington, San Jose, Tampa etc. constantly have to shuffle and kick guys down the road to reach the cap, but the strength of the nucleus just doesn't allow a significant drop-off.

Sometimes those cap causalities aren't in just who you lose off the roster, but those who you are unable to add to it. This is the point we are approaching now. We are in a cap crunch which will continue moving forward, we likely lose guys like Hamonic, Brodie, Frolik to youth, not solely because that youth is ready but also because we cannot afford to keep/re-sign these players in the next couple years. Further, we won't be able to bring in any big contracts due to the need to resign our own core.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

But losing most of those players didn't make Chicago a worse team. They even won another couple cups after a bunch of those guys were gone. Chicago's window has closed because their core got too old. Toews isn't Toews anymore, Keith isn't Keith anymore, Hossa's gone, Crawford's brain is scrambled and Seabrook is done. Chicago is the perfect example of a window NOT closing due to cap constraints.

I'm talking specifically in the time period of when they were competing for a cup and right after (so 2010 to about 2017. They won 3 cups in there). I don't think they are competing for one now, or even the past year or two. Hawks won the cup last in 2015. They were 5th in the league in 2016. 3rd in the league in 2017. It wasn't until 2018 that the wheels fell off.

Most of those guys I listed are now washed up, LTIR players or out of the league now. But:

Buff was one of their biggest playoff performers in 2010 and was moved due to cap. He's also been a key player for Winnipeg/Atlanta since then.

Hjalmarsson was a key cog on defense. Moved in the off season of 2017 after the aforementioned finishing third in the league season. Still a top 4 guy.

Bolland was their Backlund for a long time, and was moved in 2013. Yes injuries caught up with him but still a nice depth guy that was lost due to cap.

Ladd was traded in 2011 after being a top six player with chemistry with Toews and was a top six guy for Winnipeg and a leader for years.

Brian Campbell was traded in 2011 and was a top 4 guy for a while after.

Nick Leddy was moved in 2014 and had been playing top 4 for them and was briefly a top pairing guy with the Islanders. Once he was moved they had to start rotating their top 3 D in double shifts in the playoffs because of how bad their defensive depth was? Remember the corpse of Timmonen and Rosival playing key minutes in the playoffs and how bad they were?

Andrew Shaw who was a key playoff piece for two cup wins was traded in 2016.

You specifically mention Crawford's brain being scrambled and they had to move Raanta who arguably could have succeeded him as their #1.

You cannot honestly tell me you think Chicago's window wasn't affected by literally having to move depth players every off season for years after winning cups because of cap. They would have absolutely had a better chance at winning the cup in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017 if they hadn't had to move so many key guys. Even if you want to just limit it to their last cup win, in 2016 and 2017 they would have had a better chance and were still strong 100+ point teams.

 

[Rangediddy]

I'm talking specifically in the time period of when they were competing for a cup and right after (so 2010 to about 2017. They won 3 cups in there). I don't think they are competing for one now, or even the past year or two. Hawks won the cup last in 2015. They were 5th in the league in 2016. 3rd in the league in 2017. It wasn't until 2018 that the wheels fell off.

Most of those guys I listed are now washed up, LTIR players or out of the league now. But:

Buff was one of their biggest playoff performers in 2010 and was moved due to cap. He's also been a key player for Winnipeg/Atlanta since then.

Hjalmarsson was a key cog on defense. Moved in the off season of 2017 after the aforementioned finishing third in the league season. Still a top 4 guy.

Bolland was their Backlund for a long time, and was moved in 2013. Yes injuries caught up with him but still a nice depth guy that was lost due to cap.

Ladd was traded in 2011 after being a top six player with chemistry with Toews and was a top six guy for Winnipeg and a leader for years.

Brian Campbell was traded in 2011 and was a top 4 guy for a while after.

Nick Leddy was moved in 2014 and had been playing top 4 for them and was briefly a top pairing guy with the Islanders. Once he was moved they had to start rotating their top 3 D in double shifts in the playoffs because of how bad their defensive depth was? Remember the corpse of Timmonen and Rosival playing key minutes in the playoffs and how bad they were?

Andrew Shaw who was a key playoff piece for two cup wins was traded in 2016.

You specifically mention Crawford's brain being scrambled and they had to move Raanta who arguably could have succeeded him as their #1.

You cannot honestly tell me you think Chicago's window wasn't affected by literally having to move depth players every off season for years after winning cups because of cap. They would have absolutely had a better chance at winning the cup in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017 if they hadn't had to move so many key guys. Even if you want to just limit it to their last cup win, in 2016 and 2017 they would have had a better chance and were still strong 100+ point teams.

I can honestly say that their window closing was more from their aging core than having to trade Buff, Hjalmarsson, Bolland, Ladd, Campbell, Leddy and Shaw. I don't really care what kind of team they COULD have been assuming they kept those players. Every team has given up good players, some for better, some for worse. When your core is a prime Kane, Toews, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook and Crawford, your window is WIDE open. Those players aren't in their prime anymore (save for Kane) so that window, as you can see, has closed. Nobody's arguing the cap has nothing to do with keeping a successful team together, just saying that plenty have teams have continued to stay competitive in a cap world and Chicago is the premier example of that.

 

[Anglesmith]

But losing most of those players didn't make Chicago a worse team. They even won another couple cups after a bunch of those guys were gone. Chicago's window has closed because their core got too old. Toews isn't Toews anymore, Keith isn't Keith anymore, Hossa's gone, Crawford's brain is scrambled and Seabrook is done. Chicago is the perfect example of a window NOT closing due to cap constraints.

Bingo. Chicago kept on trucking until Seabrook and Toews weren't able to sustain the level that won championships. During those guys' prime, they won a Cup with the husk of Michael Handzus trying to play 2C, and only 3 NHL defencemen on the back-end.

Anyway, to bring it back to the Flames, I maintain that our window will be wide open for at least 7 years. There's no guarantee we ever win a Cup, but we've done a good job giving ourselves a chance.

 

[Fig]

I'm talking specifically in the time period of when they were competing for a cup and right after (so 2010 to about 2017. They won 3 cups in there). I don't think they are competing for one now, or even the past year or two. Hawks won the cup last in 2015. They were 5th in the league in 2016. 3rd in the league in 2017. It wasn't until 2018 that the wheels fell off.

Most of those guys I listed are now washed up, LTIR players or out of the league now. But:

Buff was one of their biggest playoff performers in 2010 and was moved due to cap. He's also been a key player for Winnipeg/Atlanta since then.

Hjalmarsson was a key cog on defense. Moved in the off season of 2017 after the aforementioned finishing third in the league season. Still a top 4 guy.

Bolland was their Backlund for a long time, and was moved in 2013. Yes injuries caught up with him but still a nice depth guy that was lost due to cap.

Ladd was traded in 2011 after being a top six player with chemistry with Toews and was a top six guy for Winnipeg and a leader for years.

Brian Campbell was traded in 2011 and was a top 4 guy for a while after.

Nick Leddy was moved in 2014 and had been playing top 4 for them and was briefly a top pairing guy with the Islanders. Once he was moved they had to start rotating their top 3 D in double shifts in the playoffs because of how bad their defensive depth was? Remember the corpse of Timmonen and Rosival playing key minutes in the playoffs and how bad they were?

Andrew Shaw who was a key playoff piece for two cup wins was traded in 2016.

You specifically mention Crawford's brain being scrambled and they had to move Raanta who arguably could have succeeded him as their #1.

You cannot honestly tell me you think Chicago's window wasn't affected by literally having to move depth players every off season for years after winning cups because of cap. They would have absolutely had a better chance at winning the cup in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017 if they hadn't had to move so many key guys. Even if you want to just limit it to their last cup win, in 2016 and 2017 they would have had a better chance and were still strong 100+ point teams.

Maybe it's a difference in semantics or agree to disagree, but their window didn't close due to cap casualties. Chicago wasn't trading tons of guys pennies on the dollar to rid themselves of bad contracts. They were trading guys at 10-20% discount to be cap compliant and still doing reasonably well in trades while doing so. They had to down grade at times, but their roster was still full of talent. Their cap casualty situations were all essentially mini retools and most of their moves were relatively fair quality for quantity moves.

They had a wide open window for quite a period until their core aged/couldn't sustain enough talent around Kane/Toews at low cap hits and they were suddenly plagued with a ton of injuries about two seasons ago. Prior to that, they were still always in the mix. The decision now for them is whether they should retool or go full on rebuild. I think Chicago has enough talent that they can continue to retool on the fly. I think Pittsburgh will end up in a similar situation in around 2-3 seasons.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Agree to disagree I guess. The nucleus was good in 2016 and 2017. You give them really good depth and I think they could have won more.

Winning the cup seems to be a combination of a really good nucleus plus depth to me.

 

[Kranix]

Agree to disagree I guess. The nucleus was good in 2016 and 2017. You give them really good depth and I think they could have won more.

Winning the cup seems to be a combination of a really good nucleus plus depth to me.

Also getting extremely lucky at times, and having a goalie stand on his head in key moments.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Didn't Toews just have his best season last year? Toews was the best Toews last season.

Also Kane was insane last season and a Hart candidate.

 

[Rangediddy]

Didn't Toews just have his best season last year? Toews was the best Toews last season.

Also Kane was insane last season and a Hart candidate.

Touche, but even with that season for him and Kane, without the likes of Keith, Seabrook, Hossa, Sharp, Crawford, it's still not even close to the contending team of yore

 

[Kranix]

Didn't Toews just have his best season last year? Toews was the best Toews last season.

Also Kane was insane last season and a Hart candidate.

They've still got a window until Kane and Toews start their 30s decline. They just need to reload quick.

 

[Khrox]

Listen, I absolutely LOVE Monahan. And as much as Monahan is a good player, and he DOES have a positive impact on Johnny, Johnny definitely improves Monahan a lot more than the other way. Admittedly, I still feel like Monahan is a 50-60 point player (if healthy) without Johnny, there is no way he is a 70+ point player without him. Meanwhile Gaudreau is only likely going to lose 10 points or so a year if playing with someone who isn't Monahan. The reality is, Johnny's baseline is 70-85 points independently.