Player Discussion Matt Murray (G) - Part 2

[AchtzehnBaby]

 

[GCK]

That's just an assumption. There hasn't been any leak of what the addition would have to be if we were moving the 16th instead of the 7th. Might have been something like that, very well could have been something like JBD or Thomson

Look what Chicago is asking in return, picks only, no players no prospects, the addition was probably another 2nd.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Look what Chicago is asking in return, picks only, no players no prospects, the addition was probably another 2nd.

They wanted Grieg.

 

[GCK]

They wanted Grieg.

Where was that reported ?

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Where was that reported ?

I read it on here that Chicago asked for Grieg, PD said no and gave up the extra 3rd or something.

 

[bert]

Don't you think that's overrating him slightly? I'm not as down on Murray as most but even at his best he was "pretty good". Amazing feels like a stretch even Murray couldn't make.

It's a silly thing to say based on his play in Ottawa. He wasn't good his last year in Pittsburgh either.

 

[Micklebot]

Look what Chicago is asking in return, picks only, no players no prospects, the addition was probably another 2nd.

Dorion in one of his pressers said Chicago asked for all sorts of prospects but the team was happy they managed to get the deal done with just picks.

I don't really think we can make any assumptions on what that extra would have been had we been dealing 16 instead of 7. Maybe it was a future 2nd, maybe it was one of Greig, JBD or Thomson. Pinto seems unlikely though.

Personally, I think a 2nd isn't enough to move from 16 to 7, at least not in most years. Historically, that has been the price to move less spots later in the first round. A first to me seems like too much, so that leaves my guess at something valued between a 1st and a 2nd. JBD, Thomson, Sokolov, and Jarventie are my guesses (or a package of picks that includes at least one 2nd).

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Au contraire, clearly it is, very clearly.

I'm not saying he is not playing better. Maybe he's just finally healthy again. Having played the position for decades, I can say that your athleticism level is highly linked to your success. The mental/confidence part is also very important and it's certainly not easy when you get shelled almost every game. The team has been playing much better, giving him a chance to "build himself back up"

But let's just take a look at what happened to Sens goalies, for the first 30 games last season and the first 20 games this season

2020-21 BEFORE March 14th (Team : 9-20-1, 2.57 GF/GP, 4.03 GA/GP)

Joey Daccord : 0.891 SV% (5 GP)
Matt Murray : 0.880 SV% (22 GP)
Marcus Hogberg : 0.859 SV% (10 GP)

2020-21 AFTER March 14th (Team : 14-8-4, 3.00 GF/GP, 2.62 GA/GP)

Matt Murray : 0.954 SV% (5 GP)
Filip Gustavsson : 0.933 SV% (9 GP)
Marcus Hogberg : 0.912 SV% (4 GP)
Anton Forsberg : 0.909 SV% (8 GP)
Joey Daccord : 0.906 SV% (3 GP)

SV% difference :

Joey Daccord + 0.015
Matt Murray + 0.074
Marcus Hogberg + 0.053

2021-22 BEFORE December 2nd (Team : 4-15-1, 2.40 GF/GP, 3.95 GA/GP)

Filip Gustavsson : 0.899 SV% (10 GP)
Matt Murray : 0.890 SV% (6 GP)
Anton Forsberg : 0.883 SV% (6 GP)

2021-22 AFTER December 2nd (Team : 10-5-3, 3.33 GF/GP, 2.56 GA/GP * left out the outlier game vs Toronto)

Matt Murray : 0.939 SV% (6 GP)
Anton Forsberg : 0.926 SV% (11 GP)
Filip Gustavsson : 0.849 SV% (2 GP)

SV% difference :

Matt Murray + 0.049
Anton Forsberg + 0.043
Filip Gustavsson - 0.050


It's not just small SV% improvements, these are HUGE. If people think it's a coincidence that every single Sens goalie (except Gus this season) had much better stats between these periods, I have a few beach houses to sell on Mars. It's not like they all suddenly decided to turn the "unsuck ASAP switch" all at the same time

I think in Gustavsson's case it's a case of a young inexperienced goalie who has been thrown to the wolves and has lost his mojo/confidence. It's also a micro sample size as he played only 5 periods after December 2nd. Let him find his game back in Belleville. Hopefully the Murray/Forsberg duo stay healthy


Outside of empirical evidence, it's actually very complicated to explain to somebody who is not a goalie. How can I say, it's just much easier to play behind a structured defense with hockey systems that has an efficient breakout for example. You are actually given a chance to make the saves when every shot is not an odd-man rush or a broken play, or a 2nd/3rd rebound. Too much "time and space" is also deadly in hockey (see McDavid with a bit of that), we've been pressuring puck carriers and supporting each others a lot more. I'm just not sure why it takes the coaching staff so much time to make these adjustments.

Note that I am not forcing anybody to share this "opinion". I am a cartesian so that's how I build my opinions and nothing I have observed so far makes me having any doubt about this.

The stats when healthy are amazing. I would like to know how much of his issues were mental preparation vs physical ailments

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

The stats when healthy are amazing. I would like to know how much of his issues were mental preparation vs physical ailments

I remember saying the same of Pascal Leclaire.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

I remember saying the same of Pascal Leclaire.

LOL. Not comparable

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.818826

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

LOL. Not comparable

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.818826

Aren't they? I'll grant that Leclaire had some rather creative ways of getting injured, but fundamentally they were goalies who arrived to Ottawa highly touted, had stretches of games where it was believable they could be our #1 of the future, but mostly spent time either injured, recovering from injury, or shaking off the rust from their latest injury. It's not a perfect analogy — Murray's had a more lasting career, played behind better teams and is undisputably the better goaltender — but in the context in which I made the comparison it feels apt.

 

[aragorn]

I dont see any scenario where they add ANOTHER 10M player and constrict their depth even further, even if they shipped out his 7M.

Such a weird narrative surrounding Nylander from their fans.... like, he's been excellent? Yet they all hate him lol.

Nylander is too soft for most blue collar Leaf fans, they didn't like seeing him not take a hit to make a play. Wouldn't surprise me if they move Murray & Brown for Nylander with some added pieces, Ottawa will need a Brown replacement on RW.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Aren't they? I'll grant that Leclaire had some rather creative ways of getting injured, but fundamentally they were goalies who arrived to Ottawa highly touted, had stretches of games where it was believable they could be our #1 of the future, but mostly spent time either injured, recovering from injury, or shaking off the rust from their latest injury. It's not a perfect analogy — Murray's had a more lasting career, played behind better teams and is undisputably the better goaltender — but in the context in which I made the comparison it feels apt.

I think there is something going on with Matt. Something else, that Can be resolved.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Aren't they? I'll grant that Leclaire had some rather creative ways of getting injured, but fundamentally they were goalies who arrived to Ottawa highly touted, had stretches of games where it was believable they could be our #1 of the future, but mostly spent time either injured, recovering from injury, or shaking off the rust from their latest injury. It's not a perfect analogy — Murray's had a more lasting career, played behind better teams and is undisputably the better goaltender — but in the context in which I made the comparison it feels apt.

Yes, they're both made of glass.

The biggest difference is that Pascal was paid reasonably.

 

[Tuna99]

Aren't they? I'll grant that Leclaire had some rather creative ways of getting injured, but fundamentally they were goalies who arrived to Ottawa highly touted, had stretches of games where it was believable they could be our #1 of the future, but mostly spent time either injured, recovering from injury, or shaking off the rust from their latest injury. It's not a perfect analogy — Murray's had a more lasting career, played behind better teams and is undisputably the better goaltender — but in the context in which I made the comparison it feels apt.

Both arrived injured too. Leclaire was in a boot when he got here and Murray had a broken heart

 

[Xspyrit]

The stats when healthy are amazing. I would like to know how much of his issues were mental preparation vs physical ailments

These are not really the stats "when healthy" though, that actually would be impossible to guess as most of the medical info is private. This is more "when the team struggled defensively" vs "when they got better as the season progressed"

This is easy to see because it's not a coincidence if all the goalies struggled heavily BEFORE and then did much better AFTER

Note that my post was on Feb 1, 2022

Yes, they're both made of glass.

The biggest difference is that Pascal was paid reasonably.

Yeah, term too. Leclaire only had 2 years left at 3.8 when he got in Ottawa. The gamble was good. We had to choose between Vermette and Fisher and decided to keep Mike. We got a 2nd round pick (selected Robin Lehner) and a potential starting goalie in return for Antoine. Seriously Pascal had really good potential before injuries, which is why he was taken 8th OA. Such a shame but I think not everyone realize how hard this sport is on the body, when the injuries start piling up, you're in trouble.

The contract Dorion gave Murray seemed to completely ignore his injury history.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Tuna99]

Want to see the exchange, could be ugly for Ottawa.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Please no more Murray to Toronto tweets until the actual deal is announced.

 

[Ashrum]

These are not really the stats "when healthy" though, that actually would be impossible to guess as most of the medical info is private. This is more "when the team struggled defensively" vs "when they got better as the season progressed"

This is easy to see because it's not a coincidence if all the goalies struggled heavily BEFORE and then did much better AFTER

Note that my post was on Feb 1, 2022



Yeah, term too. Leclaire only had 2 years left at 3.8 when he got in Ottawa. The gamble was good. We had to choose between Vermette and Fisher and decided to keep Mike. We got a 2nd round pick (selected Robin Lehner) and a potential starting goalie in return for Antoine. Seriously Pascal had really good potential before injuries, which is why he was taken 8th OA. Such a shame but I think not everyone realize how hard this sport is on the body, when the injuries start piling up, you're in trouble.

The contract Dorion gave Murray seemed to completely ignore his injury history.

He couldn't even sit on the bench without getting hurt.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Please no more Murray to Toronto tweets until the actual deal is announced.

 

[hockey20000]

getting rid of murray would be good for us so hope it happenslol

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Could be a really big mistake.

 

[jbeck5]

Could be a really big mistake.

For Ottawa or Toronto? Lol