Mark Scheifele (Part II)

[YWGinYYZ]

Continued from: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1760297

Some posts from the last thread to start us off:

With Scheif's work ethic and compete level, he is one player who I have no problem signing long term for a very fair price.

You could be right but that would be more than what I think it should be.

Year 1: 4 --- RFA
Year 2: 4.5 --- RFA
Year 3: 5 --- RFA
Year 4: 5.5 --- RFA
Year 5: 6 --- UFA
Year 6: 6.5 --- UFA
Year 7: 7 --- UFA
Year 8: 7.5 --- UFA

That is an AAV of 5.75. It looks like pretty good money to me for both the group of RFA years and the UFA years. We pay above market for the RFA years in order to get the UFA years a little cheaper and to keep the AAV down. That's what a long term deal is supposed to do. Give and take. I forget which is the potential lockout year but pay him half as a signing bonus that year in order to give him lockout protection.

Why would Scheifele's representatives reccomend that he sign that deal? They would push for 6 years $5.75M (using Barkov comp) and get something pretty close to that. The cap will rise, they would do substantially better for Year 7 & 8 later on. You have to give the player a reason to do it. I don't see it with what you proposed. That's why I said I thought it would take $50M to get done.

Barkov deal

$4.5
$5.25
$6.25
$6.9
$4.75
$7.75

Click to read more...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why would Scheifele's representatives reccomend that he sign that deal? They would push for 6 years $5.75M (using Barkov comp) and get something pretty close to that. The cap will rise, they would do substantially better for Year 7 & 8 later on. You have to give the player a reason to do it. I don't see it with what you proposed. That's why I said I thought it would take $50M to get done.

And that is why I concede that you may be right but it is more than I think it should be. Considering the 2.5 year age difference Scheif is quite a few $$$ behind Barkov so that is what I am using for a guideline. 6 years shouldn't get the 5.75 AAV.

Year 1: 3.85
Year 2: 4.35
Year 3: 4.85
Year 4: 5.35
Year 5: 5.85 UFA
Year 6: 6.35 UFA

AAV = 5.1 If you want to make the AAV 5.2 just add 100k to each of those figures. That's enough for 6 years.

I think the excitement over Scheif's recent hot streak has got people wanting to pay him too much. He isn't going to play like that all the time. Lets re-examine the question after he has gone pointless in 5-10 games.

 

[Aavco Cup]

And that is why I concede that you may be right but it is more than I think it should be. Considering the 2.5 year age difference Scheif is quite a few $$$ behind Barkov so that is what I am using for a guideline. 6 years shouldn't get the 5.75 AAV.

Year 1: 3.85
Year 2: 4.35
Year 3: 4.85
Year 4: 5.35
Year 5: 5.85 UFA
Year 6: 6.35 UFA

AAV = 5.1 If you want to make the AAV 5.2 just add 100k to each of those figures. That's enough for 6 years.

I think the excitement over Scheif's recent hot streak has got people wanting to pay him too much. He isn't going to play like that all the time. Lets re-examine the question after he has gone pointless in 5-10 games.

I first proposed this comp the day Barkov signed it. Had nothing to do with his recent play.

All the power to Chevy if he get's that deal done that you propose. I doubt Scheifele agrees to it.

 

[surixon]

And that is why I concede that you may be right but it is more than I think it should be. Considering the 2.5 year age difference Scheif is quite a few $$$ behind Barkov so that is what I am using for a guideline. 6 years shouldn't get the 5.75 AAV.

Year 1: 3.85
Year 2: 4.35
Year 3: 4.85
Year 4: 5.35
Year 5: 5.85 UFA
Year 6: 6.35 UFA

AAV = 5.1 If you want to make the AAV 5.2 just add 100k to each of those figures. That's enough for 6 years.

I think the excitement over Scheif's recent hot streak has got people wanting to pay him too much. He isn't going to play like that all the time. Lets re-examine the question after he has gone pointless in 5-10 games.

While he has been a bit hot lately he was pretty cold when he came back from injury. So this hot streak has really just got his ES/60 production back to where it was before Ladd Ko'd him in practice.

His possesion numbers have also been superior than Barkov's over last few years. Not saying we give him the Barkov deal for some of the reasons that you have brought up, but he's worth a bit more than your implying considering one company RNH is making 6 million a year and Scheifele is the better hockey player now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I first proposed this comp the day Barkov signed it. Had nothing to do with his recent play.

All the power to Chevy if he get's that deal done that you propose. I doubt Scheifele agrees to it.

If you meant they should be near the same AAV I disagree - quite strongly. I am using Barkov as a benchmark and setting Scheifele a level below.

If he can't get those kinds of numbers then there is no give and take with the player at all. We would be paying Scheifele like a pending UFA, IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

While he has been a bit hot lately he was pretty cold when he came back from injury. So this hot streak has really just got his ES/60 production back to where it was before Ladd Ko'd him in practice.

His possesion numbers have also been superior than Barkov's over last few years. Not saying we give him the Barkov deal for some of the reasons that you have brought up, but he's worth a bit more than your implying considering one company RNH is making 6 million a year and Scheifele is the better hockey player now.

True the comparison to RNH demands more money for Scheif. Edmonton's RNH deal was a bad contract but bad contracts still affect the market. However recency also counts and Barkov is much more recent. I suppose that Scheif's agent will try to use RNH to get a better deal and maybe he will succeed in pushing up the AAV by a couple of 100k but it should still be short of Barkov's deal.

Were Mark's Corsi #s (I assume that is what you mean by possession) at 20 YO better than Barkov's at 20 YO? I think people are looking at the Barkov contract and thinking Mark should be close. Both are coming off their ELC's. The difference is age. Barkov came to the NHL straight out of the draft. Scheif needed 2 more years of jr before he was ready for the NHL. The 2.5 year age difference is huge I believe. Huuuge. Barkov is closer to Eichel than he is to Scheifele. That should be reflected in the contract.

 

[surixon]

True the comparison to RNH demands more money for Scheif. Edmonton's RNH deal was a bad contract but bad contracts still affect the market. However recency also counts and Barkov is much more recent. I suppose that Scheif's agent will try to use RNH to get a better deal and maybe he will succeed in pushing up the AAV by a couple of 100k but it should still be short of Barkov's deal.

Were Mark's Corsi #s (I assume that is what you mean by possession) at 20 YO better than Barkov's at 20 YO? I think people are looking at the Barkov contract and thinking Mark should be close. Both are coming off their ELC's. The difference is age. Barkov came to the NHL straight out of the draft. Scheif needed 2 more years of jr before he was ready for the NHL. The 2.5 year age difference is huge I believe. Huuuge. Barkov is closer to Eichel than he is to Scheifele. That should be reflected in the contract.

Oh I agree that age will be taken into account which is one of the reasons I expect Mark to end up in the 5.25-5.5 million range on a similar length deal.

 

[Aavco Cup]

If you meant they should be near the same AAV I disagree - quite strongly. I am using Barkov as a benchmark and setting Scheifele a level below.

If he can't get those kinds of numbers then there is no give and take with the player at all. We would be paying Scheifele like a pending UFA, IMO.

6 x $5.75M
8 x $6.25M

Those are fair deals IMO

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I think the excitement over Scheif's recent hot streak has got people wanting to pay him too much. He isn't going to play like that all the time. Lets re-examine the question after he has gone pointless in 5-10 games.

Not for me: go back and look at my history to when I followed him in the OHL in person, and on TV. I've always been high on his potential, and believe that we shouldn't overpay, but I'd be happy to add to the pot to get him locked up longer term. It has NOTHING to do (at least for me) with the sort term / recency bias.

6 x $5.75M
8 x $6.25M

Those are fair deals IMO

I very much agree with these numbers.

 

[sully1410]

I'm with you Gin. 5.75 would be more then fair.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

I think the excitement over Scheif's recent hot streak has got people wanting to pay him too much. He isn't going to play like that all the time. Lets re-examine the question after he has gone pointless in 5-10 games.

Disagree.

Been watching him for several years now, and the excitement stems from watching him grow and improve every season. There is excitement in knowing that he is a hard worker, dedicated to improving, has solid character, along with his talent makes him a very worth while long term investment.

 

[robertocarlos]

Hitting the post or bar down is just as good as a goal.

 

[csk]

Disagree.

Been watching him for several years now, and the excitement stems from watching him grow and improve every season. There is excitement in knowing that he is a hard worker, dedicated to improving, has solid character, along with his talent makes him a very worth while long term investment.

Scheifele was always a player that improved quickly. He wasn't on anyone's radar until the second half of his draft year. When he was drafted, I wasn't all that impressed with what he had done, but was hopeful that he could keep up that pace of improvement. Looks like he did, but how far will he take it?

 

[Gm0ney]

Scheifele was always a player that improved quickly. He wasn't on anyone's radar until the second half of his draft year. When he was drafted, I wasn't all that impressed with what he had done, but was hopeful that he could keep up that pace of improvement. Looks like he did, but how far will he take it?

Scheifele turns 23 in a few days. Players peak around 25 as a rule of thumb. So 2 more years of improvements until we get to Peak Scheifele - just in time for the 2017-18 playoffs!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Oh I agree that age will be taken into account which is one of the reasons I expect Mark to end up in the 5.25-5.5 million range on a similar length deal.

I could see it going that high. I think 5.5 would be tops though for a 6 year deal.

6 x $5.75M
8 x $6.25M

Those are fair deals IMO

Could easily go that high but I still think it is too much

I'm with you Gin. 5.75 would be more then fair.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Disagree.

Been watching him for several years now, and the excitement stems from watching him grow and improve every season. There is excitement in knowing that he is a hard worker, dedicated to improving, has solid character, along with his talent makes him a very worth while long term investment.

Yeah, me too Bo. I'd love to get him locked up long term but doing that is supposed to have a financial benefit for the team. His hard work and dedication to improvement makes him a very low risk long term commitment. But he is still well short of the talent level of Barkov.

Edit: That is assuming that the hot streak does not continue. If it does then all bets are off.

 

[Duke749]

Disagree.

Been watching him for several years now, and the excitement stems from watching him grow and improve every season. There is excitement in knowing that he is a hard worker, dedicated to improving, has solid character, along with his talent makes him a very worth while long term investment.

First off, you kinda say this like no one else has seen him improve. In fact, I would say 99% of posters on this board have seen the same improvement from year to year. But you're kidding yourself if you think people would be just as excited without this white hot streak he's on. It's exciting because we're starting to see some of his potential and a glimpse into the future.

And like Mort says, we still need the contract to be team friendly in certain aspects. My feeling is that'll happen because I don't think money is high up on his list. Obviously he wants to be paid, but he is the type(character wise) that you wanna build a franchise around and I think it'll be huge for hockey in Winnipeg.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

The difference between Barkovs 6 year deal and a Scheifele 7 or 8 year deal is this.

Barkovs deal takes him until he is 27 at wich time he gets a new deal and probably a quite lucrative one because he will still be in the prime of his career. He will be able to count on a second big payday if he becomes the player many think he will.

Now if you give Scheifele a 7 or 8 year deal it will take him till his 30s and probably include all of his prime scoring years. In order to get that kind of commitment from a player of Mark's caliber you will likely have to pay well for it.

Look at it this way a Scheifele deal will encompass 2 or 3 years of development then another 4 or 5 years of prime performance. If you don't offer him the money now he bridges and in 2 years when he is a clear cut first line center you are going to be using a whole new group of very pricey comparables to negotiate his new contract with. 6.5 to 7 million might look very reasonable in 3 years time.

Now the Barkov contract takes him through 4 or 5 years of development and only into 1 or 2 years of prime scoring rates while he gets to negotiate his next contract with 3ish more prime years ahead. Think Kopitar.

Bottom line I believe is this, Mark will need to get paid to go to 7 or 8 years. Otherwise with a 5 or 6 around 5.5 mil a year deal we will be paying him big when he comes up as a UFA as a 27 or 28 year old and that contract might have to be more money or term than we would want.

 

[CorgisPer60]

If Mark signs for less than 6m AAV over 8 years, I'd consider that a good contract. Less than 5.5m AAV and it's a homerun.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The difference between Barkovs 6 year deal and a Scheifele 7 or 8 year deal is this.

Barkovs deal takes him until he is 27 at wich time he gets a new deal and probably a quite lucrative one because he will still be in the prime of his career. He will be able to count on a second big payday if he becomes the player many think he will.

Now if you give Scheifele a 7 or 8 year deal it will take him till his 30s and probably include all of his prime scoring years. In order to get that kind of commitment from a player of Mark's caliber you will likely have to pay well for it.

Look at it this way a Scheifele deal will encompass 2 or 3 years of development then another 4 or 5 years of prime performance. If you don't offer him the money now he bridges and in 2 years when he is a clear cut first line center you are going to be using a whole new group of very pricey comparables to negotiate his new contract with. 6.5 to 7 million might look very reasonable in 3 years time.

Now the Barkov contract takes him through 4 or 5 years of development and only into 1 or 2 years of prime scoring rates while he gets to negotiate his next contract with 3ish more prime years ahead. Think Kopitar.

Bottom line I believe is this, Mark will need to get paid to go to 7 or 8 years. Otherwise with a 5 or 6 around 5.5 mil a year deal we will be paying him big when he comes up as a UFA as a 27 or 28 year old and that contract might have to be more money or term than we would want.

You have a point but it is more clear to start by comparing a 6 year deal to a 6 year deal and then go from there.

If we assume they both peak at the same age, lets say 25 then mark has 2 years to go. Barkov has 4.5 years to go. In all around play Mark has an edge. In scoring Barkov has an edge. Call them even now. Consider the additional growth in 2.5 years. Also consider that the earlier part of the development is at a steeper slope. Marks growth is closer to leveling off. Give Scheif a premium for intangibles (although I don't know about Barkov's intangibles, I'll just assume Mark is better). There is still quite a gap.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Mark signs for less than 6m AAV over 8 years, I'd consider that a good contract. Less than 5.5m AAV and it's a homerun.

I don't think anyone has suggested <5.5 for 8 years. That has been a 6 year number.

 

[Eyeseeing]

He needs to be signed long term this summer no question.
His ceiling has not been realized

 

[PhilJets]

You have a point but it is more clear to start by comparing a 6 year deal to a 6 year deal and then go from there.

If we assume they both peak at the same age, lets say 25 then mark has 2 years to go. Barkov has 4.5 years to go. In all around play Mark has an edge. In scoring Barkov has an edge. Call them even now. Consider the additional growth in 2.5 years. Also consider that the earlier part of the development is at a steeper slope. Marks growth is closer to leveling off. Give Scheif a premium for intangibles (although I don't know about Barkov's intangibles, I'll just assume Mark is better). There is still quite a gap.

How do we know the above?

Pure talent alone, players just relaying on pure skills will peak before they reach the age of 25 years old.

But players with skills and puts in the work to be better, their absolute peak is between 28 - 29. This is also true with other major sports.

 

[surixon]

You have a point but it is more clear to start by comparing a 6 year deal to a 6 year deal and then go from there.

If we assume they both peak at the same age, lets say 25 then mark has 2 years to go. Barkov has 4.5 years to go. In all around play Mark has an edge. In scoring Barkov has an edge. Call them even now. Consider the additional growth in 2.5 years. Also consider that the earlier part of the development is at a steeper slope. Marks growth is closer to leveling off. Give Scheif a premium for intangibles (although I don't know about Barkov's intangibles, I'll just assume Mark is better). There is still quite a gap.

Hard to say with regards to this. On average you'd be correct, but Mark's development arrow has essentially pointed up since he was drafted and he is showing no signs of slowing down. I also think he still hasn't come close to reaching his physical peak which should allow for even more growth. I quite frankly have no idea how high he can climb. Given that he is already a legit first line centre I have no issue giving him Hamilton cash.

 

[powder88]

After his assist tonight, Scheifle is scoring at a 63 point/season pace...as a 22/23 year old. When he gets first line minutes and teammates, why should't he be a 70 point player for the next eight years? And if you think he's going to score 70 points a year until he's 30, you sign him for every year you can!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How do we know the above?

Pure talent alone, players just relaying on pure skills will peak before they reach the age of 25 years old.

But players with skills and puts in the work to be better, their absolute peak is between 28 - 29. This is also true with other major sports.

The better you get the less room there is for improvement. The last bit is always hardest to achieve. There is no way to know for certain when any given player will reach his absolute peak but we know what normal is and what average is. And we know that the pace of improvement will slow as the peak approaches.