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Pre-Game Talk: Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets (Monday gezame)

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Zybalto

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Dec 28, 2012
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VanW27 said:
Goaltending has been an issue obviously, I don't think it's just that though.

Something I've discussed on these board several times over the last while is that xGA, xG%, etc do not effectively capture the quality of the chances against. HDCA just doesn't cover it, not all HDCA are equal and IMO we give up the High-High caliber ones. Even though we don't give up a lot it's the quality we give up that's the issue.

It's difficult to quantify outside just 'eye-test' but the stat that best points to this is our goalies HDSV%'s, which are absolutely terrible and has been the case been for years. Andersen struggled his entire Leaf career with in HDSV% but suddenly as a Cane his numbers are way up. Mrazek on the other hand went from one of the best in the league to one of the worst in his first year as a Leaf, Campbell doesn't have much of a track record to go on but his HDSV% was poor even last year despite the strong overall numbers, and it's even worse this year, again despite pretty good overall numbers still.
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Its' weird. Andersen still doesnt have a great HD save% this season compared with his overall numbers (.838, 15th in the league) and Campbell from October to January 14th had an HD save% of .841 and then lost the plot down to .808 on the season. Both goalies have never done well in that stat which is why I soured on Freddy and never got behind Campbell.

Last year, Andersen was even worse than Mrazek though and was less reliable than Hutch even as a backup so it's hard to even gauge what he was after the season.
 

Zybalto

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Dec 28, 2012
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Kiwi said:
Pretty remarkable considering the goaltending
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Yea, it's almost like a reason to panic and a reason to be happy.

The team in front of the goalies isnt as bad as you think but the goalies are....man....

I wish it was just a matter of finding a "physical D" or anything that easy.

I want first half of the season Campbell back.
 
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budzz

budzz

History is just that.
Jan 26, 2015
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I have been on record saying Campbell is just in a slump and will pull out of it. But the scary thing is, we know how hard he is on himself, and still seems to struggle with pressure. Well when the playoffs start, all eyes in the entire NHL will be watching the Leafs goal tending. The pressure in Toronto will be HUGE and every shot will be under the microscope. If he is struggling with the pressure now, it's going to ramp up 100x. I do worry a bit...
 
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Scion

Scion

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May 25, 2012
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VanW27 said:
Goaltending has been an issue obviously, I don't think it's just that though.

Something I've discussed on these board several times over the last while is that xGA, xG%, etc do not effectively capture the quality of the chances against. HDCA just doesn't cover it, not all HDCA are equal and IMO we give up the High-High caliber ones. Even though we don't give up a lot it's the quality we give up that's the issue.

It's difficult to quantify outside just 'eye-test' but the stat that best points to this is our goalies HDSV%'s, which are absolutely terrible and has been the case been for years. Andersen struggled his entire Leaf career with in HDSV% but suddenly as a Cane his numbers are way up. Mrazek on the other hand went from one of the best in the league to one of the worst in his first year as a Leaf, Campbell doesn't have much of a track record to go on but his HDSV% was poor even last year despite the strong overall numbers, and it's even worse this year, again despite pretty good overall numbers still.
Click to expand...

To add onto this, the HNIC went over the Leafs micro stats since the new year, which included things like rush chances and slot chances among other things and the Leafs ranked in the bottom third of the league in them despite having strong xGA numbers. Like you I am dubious of expected goal metrics without additional context, and its very evident to the eyes that the Leafs are not performing like a good defensive team of late.
 
BillyCostigan

BillyCostigan

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Nov 9, 2021
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Scion said:
I could be wrong, but everything Keefe is saying about Robertson suggests that this is a showcase move.
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Think it has more to do with his brother having a fantastic run lately and hoping Nick can replicate it. After all he is supposed to be the better goal scorer of the 2.
 
Shooter2x

Shooter2x

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Nov 3, 2021
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budzz said:
I have been on record saying Campbell is just in a slump and will pull out of it. But the scary thing is, we know how hard he is on himself, and still seems to struggle with pressure. Well when the playoffs start, all eyes in the entire NHL will be watching the Leafs goal tending. The pressure in Toronto will be HUGE and every shot will be under the microscope. If he is struggling with the pressure now, it's going to ramp up 100x. I do worry a bit...
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There won't be any covid restrictions. He will faint when the jumbotron shows how many people are gathered in maple leaf square to see him play.
 
Coachcorner

Coachcorner

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Scion said:
Jason Robertson isn't on a run, he has been a legitimately elite player since he entered the league last season.
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Lets see if our scesorers get on a run too tonight sire :clap: This is a very interesting game.... what better opportunity for our leafs to show their grit & nails but againt a hot team that is fighting for its playoff spot sire. :fire: :hot: :summer: :cold: :sun: :shining:
They are the ONLY team in the east, that still has a small chance on getting in. Its' mucho bit of a small, but still there sire... they have really been wanting THESE WINS LATELY. HARD, sire.

Ich will also add, that the east is not that exciting as a playoff fought race on positions. The west is.
 
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BillyCostigan

BillyCostigan

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Scion said:
Jason Robertson isn't on a run, he has been a legitimately elite player since he entered the league last season.
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Yes, but he isn't talked about that much, and Toronto just started playing little Robertson. I was just guessing that his suddden increase in playing time might be related to his brothers success, hoping maybe the momentum spreads around.
 
HockeyVirus

HockeyVirus

Woll stan.
Nov 15, 2020
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budzz said:
I have been on record saying Campbell is just in a slump and will pull out of it. But the scary thing is, we know how hard he is on himself, and still seems to struggle with pressure. Well when the playoffs start, all eyes in the entire NHL will be watching the Leafs goal tending. The pressure in Toronto will be HUGE and every shot will be under the microscope. If he is struggling with the pressure now, it's going to ramp up 100x. I do worry a bit...
Click to expand...

IMO he won't get out of it until he blocks out all the noise and just has fun like he was at the start of the season. When he came in, he was just a happy to be playing kind of guy, winning games with his friends, one of the best teams in the league. And then talks of his contract extension started coming up.. How much would his deal be? 30M? 40? 50? He is the leader for the vezina? He got selected to the all star game?

And it unraveled there. If he gets his game back, it will be because he has mastered blocking out the noise and living in the moment again. In that case I don't think the additional pressure really matters much as he has been through it and won before. Similar to beginning of season Marner and current Marner.

What worries me is that he isn't able to do that. I'm not sure he recovers.
 
wingman75

wingman75

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AvroArrow said:
Just astonishing that we've still held onto 3rd in the Atlantic despite that.
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Goes to show you how strong the roster is, despite all the faults we see in them... and yes, still need an upgrade on D but some credit is due.

That being said, imagine how good this team could be with average NHL goaltending numbers!!
 
Clark4Ever

Clark4Ever

What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...
Oct 10, 2010
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Zybalto said:
Leafs since January 15th:

Record 12-7-1

Shot differential: 4th in the NHL
xGoal differential: 4th in the NHL
Goal differential: 11th in the NHL
Team save%: 31st in the NHL
Click to expand...

This post says it all, and it also matches the eye test.

I have no issues with the overall team play as of late at both ends of the ice. Our goaltending has been nothing short of atrocious, and we're not going anywhere in the post season unless that changes drastically.
 
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Aashir Mallik

Aashir Mallik

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Clark4Ever said:
This post says it all, and it also matches the eye test.

I have no issues with the overall team play as of late at both ends of the ice. Our goaltending has been nothing short of atrocious, and we're not going anywhere in the post season unless that changes drastically.
Click to expand...
I agree, some days the team is a bit off but they never get man handled, but every time it’s ever a tie game or we go up 1, we always always go down. It happened in st Louis, Buffalo, Columbus, Vancouver. Our goalies have costed us many games recently.
 
zeke

zeke

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Aashir Mallik

Aashir Mallik

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Robertson should stay on the second line

he gave them a look I hadn’t seen in almost 2 months

hopefully that line can build off of the loss in Vancouver
 
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