Mackenzie's "Rankings" on his Bobcast (March 23 - 1 hour in)

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Michael R: Between Ty Smith, Noah Dobson and Evan Bouchard, who’s your pick and why?
It would be between Smith and Bouchard. I lean toward Smith. He has more ability to break a shift open than either of the other two, and he has the same high IQ just without the size.

No Dobson? That's so weird to me.

Pronman Mailbag: Wahlstrom vs. Tkachuk, skill vs.

 

[newfy]

I agree points per game aren't everything, and Hughes is questionable defensively, but it does show that Tkachuk isn't really producing like a top 5 pick.
Guys have produced more in the NCAA as a forward and have gone way later. Luke Kunin comes to mind.

Kunin had a comparable draft year, Tkachuk was up near the top of his team in point per game, as was Kunin. Kunin didnt get a sniff of the world juniors though which is where a lot of Tkachuks draft status is coming from. Kunins post draft world junior wasnt even close to Tkachuks draft year one though. Thats why scouts watch these guys play, take in the difference of quality in games, theyre both in different draft years so its not a perfect comparison anyways.

But even still, Kunin without the international hype and what I would call comparable NCAA season went 15th. At most youre talking about a difference of about 10 spots in completey different draft years.

 

[DetroitRed]

Very uncontroversial list, to me.

From tier 2, I can see the Wings taking Svech or even Tkachuk if they pick third. I'm not sure adding Zadina, or a guy with his kind of game, is high on their list of priorities. Maybe they would reach for Tkachuk if they had to pick between him and Zadina.

As for Tier 3, the way Hughes skates is really exciting. I'm not so sure that he wont fall to whoever picks sixth or seventh because he's short, but there's a good possibility that could work in the Wings' favor. Although, Boqvist would be my first choice after Dhalin. But I would be surprised not to see Boqvist go before sixth pick...

So, yeah. pretty conventional list, I think

 

[Pavels Dog]

No Dobson? That's so weird to me.

Pronman Mailbag: Wahlstrom vs. Tkachuk, skill vs.

Same IQ with less size? Give me the bigger guy..

Overall I’m not sold on going for 5’10-5’11 D in the top 10. I think you can find guys like Girard, Vatanen, Ghost, Montour, etc. by gunning for those high-skill smaller D later in the draft. How often have small D drafted in the top 10 really worked out?

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

I don't understand what scouts see in Tkachuk that they rate him so highly. He seems like the perfect combo for an overrated player; pedigree, physical play, grit, over-performing in big tournaments, etc. Quinn Hughes has a higher points per game than him and Hughes is a defenseman, so why take Tkachuk over Hughes?

They actually have an identical PPG and there are so many variables other than ability and desire which affect a player's production.

 

[Frk It]

Same IQ with less size? Give me the bigger guy..

Overall I’m not sold on going for 5’10-5’11 D in the top 10. I think you can find guys like Girard, Vatanen, Ghost, Montour, etc. by gunning for those high-skill smaller D later in the draft. How often have small D drafted in the top 10 really worked out?

Gotta understand the landscape is changing big time, though.

Cale Makar went #4 last year. He’s probably a 2nd or 3rd rounder 10 years ago. Erik Brannstrom went #15 last year. He probably goes undrafted 10 years ago.

Teams are very open to drafting smaller defenseman higher than ever right now. This is largely a response to teams missing out on Subban, Letang, Karlsson, etc., or the success of those guys.

Some guys will slip through the cracks because they always do, but we are definitely seeing things done different than in the past on draft day.

 

[jkutswings]

Gotta understand the landscape is changing big time, though.

Cale Makar went #4 last year. He’s probably a 2nd or 3rd rounder 10 years ago. Erik Brannstrom went #15 last year. He probably goes undrafted 10 years ago.

Teams are very open to drafting smaller defenseman higher than ever right now. This is largely a response to teams missing out on Subban, Letang, Karlsson, etc., or the success of those guys.

Some guys will slip through the cracks because they always do, but we are definitely seeing things done different than in the past on draft day.

Agreed. It's still in the very early stages, and will need at least a few more years to really evaluate. Should be interesting to eventually see if it's a fad gone wrong, or the new norm for a range of "successful" body types.

 

[Henkka]

Gotta understand the landscape is changing big time, though.

Cale Makar went #4 last year. He’s probably a 2nd or 3rd rounder 10 years ago. Erik Brannstrom went #15 last year. He probably goes undrafted 10 years ago.

Teams are very open to drafting smaller defenseman higher than ever right now. This is largely a response to teams missing out on Subban, Letang, Karlsson, etc., or the success of those guys.

Drafts are different every year.

Last year there was a skill edge for smaller guys who went on top. This year there's just as skilled big guys.

No-brainer options for me.

 

[Frk It]

Drafts are different every year.

Last year there was a skill edge for smaller guys who went on top. This year there's just as skilled big guys.

No-brainer options for me.

I still think that same draft class would have been looked at differently 10 years ago. There has been a clear philosophy change recently. Quinn Hughes probably isn't a top 10 ranked guy in past years either.

 

[Henkka]

Here was his tiers:

1) Dahlin
-------------
2,3,4) Svechnikov; Zadina; tkachuk
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5,6,7,8) Boqvist, Hughes, Bouchard, Dobson

That's pretty much the consensus of all consensuses.