Prospect Info: LW Matthew Tkachuk, 6th overall

[Body Checker]

I believe he will make the Flames and get top 9 minutes. I see duos (i.e. Mony/Johnny, Backs/Frolik) and moving the other guys up and down the top 9 as a new trend. Tkachuk will play on all 3 lines.

 

[BigRangy]

My doubt with Tkachuk is not that he played with two good players, it's that 38% of his points were secondary assists, and only 62% of his production was at evens.

They're not bad numbers per se, but when a guy's even strength primary points production is roughly the same as a Taylor Raddysh (who was passed over by the Flames twice in the second round who also benefits from being on a great team with great linemates), I'm not too satisfied with that guy at 6. He can still be a solid NHLer, but I don't expect 70 points out of him, ever. 60 points will be a good year in his prime if scoring stays the way it is.

Of course, this could all change next year, now that Marner and Dvorak are gone. Maybe Tkachuk, when he's the guy can control the play more himself and produce more of the offense rather than supplementing it.

I will say though, Tkachuk, even if you think he was carried by his linemates and you compensate for it, still put up better numbers than Brown or Nylander.

It's passing on Keller that kills me. Keller is going to be an elite point producer in the NHL. But he's small and the Flames don't need more small guys, so I understand why they passed on him. Tkachuk is the next best option though, so at least they didn't go off the board.

 

[Slush]

Who his father is has nothing to do with how good at hockey Tkachuk is or will be. He's the one on the ice, not Keith. Ridiculous thinking.

Not really. Usually special talent like that is in the genes and passed along in the family. I'm sure Matt's dad was giving him all the hockey tips and tricks as he was growing up and doing his own coaching on his son showing him what it's going to take to be a NHL player.

And have you watched Matt play? Where ever he has played he has dominated. This kid is going to be great for the Flames.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Yeah look at his draft - 1 numbers, his WJC #s, his Mem cup numbers, his playoff numbers. They are all ridiculous... The guy is a scoring machine.

 

[King In The North]

My doubt with Tkachuk is not that he played with two good players, it's that 38% of his points were secondary assists, and only 62% of his production was at evens.

They're not bad numbers per se, but when a guy's even strength primary points production is roughly the same as a Taylor Raddysh (who was passed over by the Flames twice in the second round who also benefits from being on a great team with great linemates), I'm not too satisfied with that guy at 6. He can still be a solid NHLer, but I don't expect 70 points out of him, ever. 60 points will be a good year in his prime if scoring stays the way it is.

Of course, this could all change next year, now that Marner and Dvorak are gone. Maybe Tkachuk, when he's the guy can control the play more himself and produce more of the offense rather than supplementing it.

I will say though, Tkachuk, even if you think he was carried by his linemates and you compensate for it, still put up better numbers than Brown or Nylander.

It's passing on Keller that kills me. Keller is going to be an elite point producer in the NHL. But he's small and the Flames don't need more small guys, so I understand why they passed on him. Tkachuk is the next best option though, so at least they didn't go off the board.

Can you give some comparisons? Like other top prospects who played with another more talented prospect? What was their point distribution?

 

[HighLifeMan]

How anybody could be upset with this pick is beyond me.. This kid has ELITE level hockey sense and is an absolute beast below the dots.. He will translate that skillset to the NHL there is no doubt in my mind.

He is the absolute PERFECT pick for our organization at that spot in the draft. We lucked out big time.

 

[Anglesmith]

Primary points production is a silly thing to isolate, anyway. Goals don't generally happen without the scoring team breaking down the other team, and that generally doesn't happen unless the five-man unit on one team outplays the five-man unit on the other team. Everyone needs to do their job, and if you're one of the last two people in on the play, great. If you're the third guy, great. If you're one of the other two, also great, just too bad you don't get a point.

 

[1989]

My only concerns with Tkachuk right now are somewhat inconsequential, "the future is fuzzy" ones:

1) How much more development is possible in juniors?
I am never a fan of rushing a prospect, and I'd really like for him to at LEAST get half a season's worth of games with the Knights, on the first unit power-play and ESPECIALLY on the right wing if possible.

2) If he does make the NHL this season, who does he play with? You want to maximize development potential and not just give Tkachuk spotty 13th-forward minutes.

• Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik could be interesting and would likely mesh well. He should start there in order to learn the pro game. Otherwise, Chiasson slots in here or with Bennett.
• Bennett needs a better option than Shinkaruk; however, I have concerns on whether Bennett-Tkachuk's playstyles actually mesh well together. Also, Shinkaruk-Bennett-Tkachuk might be one of the youngest lines in the entire League at 21, 20, and 18 years old respectively; they'll likely outmatched defensively and potentially offensively stifled, which isn't good for development.
• Gaudreau-Monahan could obviously use a strong right-wing presence but it's too much, too soon to expect Tkachuk to play up to that level of competition.

TL;DR - The Flames need 1 more strong winger option for Bennett's line, and if Tkachuk sticks after his 9 game audition somehow he should be with Backlund to start the season. Otherwise, it's back to juniors where he can bulk up and hopefully get a trainer to improve his skating further.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Primary points production is a silly thing to isolate, anyway. Goals don't generally happen without the scoring team breaking down the other team, and that generally doesn't happen unless the five-man unit on one team outplays the five-man unit on the other team. Everyone needs to do their job, and if you're one of the last two people in on the play, great. If you're the third guy, great. If you're one of the other two, also great, just too bad you don't get a point.

Not every job is created equal, though. In the generation of a goal, the last couple of guys to touch the puck are more reliably the ones doing the most work. While sometimes the secondary assist is the most important part of the play (or an action taken by a player who doesn't even get an assist), it's not normally the case, and we don't consistently know whether or not a secondary assist would likely be important to a goal or not. People focus on primary points as a quick way of removing "noisy" scoring stats that are harder to interpret.

 

[Anglesmith]

Not every job is created equal, though. In the generation of a goal, the last couple of guys to touch the puck are more reliably the ones doing the most work. While sometimes the secondary assist is the most important part of the play (or an action taken by a player who doesn't even get an assist), it's not normally the case, and we don't consistently know whether or not a secondary assist would likely be important to a goal or not. People focus on primary points as a quick way of removing "noisy" scoring stats that are harder to interpret.

I feel like a lot of this is very wishy-washy. It's an extremely tenuous point at best, and it can't really be backed up by more than a hunch. It is, really, a hypothesis

My point is that five guys playing the right way typically leads to offence. Due to the positions and how they generally play, the three forwards will likely get points more often than the two defencemen who are doing their jobs just as well. If you have a guy playing badly on the line, he isn't going to end up with more secondary assists, he's going to end up with fewer assists in general, and so will his linemates because they probably won't score as much. That's my counter-hypothesis. A guy who is "adequate" while playing on a line with two guys who are very good is just as likely to see a boost in goals and first assists as he is to see a boost in secondary assists.

 

[Calculon]

Burke has a policy for junior eligible players that it's either 15 minutes a game in the NHL, or they're sent down. Would assume Treliving has something similar.

Ideally, a Tkachuk-Bennett duo would be complemented by a sagely vet, like say Eriksson. But any quality right winger the Flames sign would automatically be penciled in on the top line, which is the bigger need and there's not enough cap space for multiple wingers at UFA prices. Which is why the Flames might be forced to go with a less experienced option, like say Chiasson, or maybe someone like Ferland or Poirier, possibly Frolik, but that'd leave Backlund devoid of quality linemates. But in a properly sheltered role, Tkachuk-Bennett-Ferland/Chiasson would be acceptable I think. Although maybe the Flames can sign someone like Ben Smith (27 year old, RHS) or even bring Stempniak back. Can't imagine either would be too expensive.

And that's also why putting Tkachuk with Backlund is a bad idea. Backlund faces most of the toughest competition; subjecting Tkachuk to that this early on really isn't putting him in a position to succeed. And sheltering Backlund's line would mean Bennett would face tougher competition that he might not be ready for. It might have been possible if Monahan and Bennett were further ahead in their development.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Primary points production is a silly thing to isolate, anyway. Goals don't generally happen without the scoring team breaking down the other team, and that generally doesn't happen unless the five-man unit on one team outplays the five-man unit on the other team. Everyone needs to do their job, and if you're one of the last two people in on the play, great. If you're the third guy, great. If you're one of the other two, also great, just too bad you don't get a point.

We need a stat for "setting up the play".

Basically, he didn't touch the puck but was crucial in some aspect of the goal.

 

[tfong]

We need a stat for "setting up the play".

Basically, he didn't touch the puck but was crucial in some aspect of the goal.

Fenwick is a good measure or Fenwick rel%

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Fenwick is a good measure or Fenwick rel%

I'm going to assume that one went over your head.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Fenwick is a good measure or Fenwick rel%

Woman - "....setting up the play"
Iginla - "as in the goal tonight?"
Woman - "everything......."

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

1) How much more development is possible in juniors?

Plenty especially if Marner is gone. Tkachuk is one of the best hash-marks-in forwards in Junior, but what about the 200 foot game? I want to see Tkachuk develop into a Marian Hossa type elite forward, and Junior is the best place to make mistakes.

2) If he does make the NHL this season, who does he play with?

A) Tkachuk-Bennett-Chiasson
B) Pribyl-Bennett-TKachuk
C) Frolik-Jankowski-Tkachuk

One of those three lines would be dandy. Or the Backlund treatment.

 

[Fig]

A) Tkachuk-Bennett-Chiasson
B) Pribyl-Bennett-TKachuk
C) Frolik-Jankowski-Tkachuk

One of those three lines would be dandy. Or the Backlund treatment.

Tkachuk - Bennett - Stajan worth an experiment?

 

[JPeeper]

Tkachuk-Bennett-Frolik

Frolik can keep up with the offense, but is also the defensive catalyst on that line.

Only problem is that leaves Backlund with no one. Unless you move Janko to Backlund's wing.

 

[Calgareee]

Tkachuk-Bennett-Frolik

Frolik can keep up with the offense, but is also the defensive catalyst on that line.

Only problem is that leaves Backlund with no one. Unless you move Janko to Backlund's wing.

I didn't mind the Colbourne-Backlund-Stajan line at the end of the season. Could make sense if you want to put Frolik with Tkachuk and bennett. Then a bottom line of Bouma-Grant-Chiasson?

Although I wouldn't be opposed to bringing back Hudler on a cheapish 2 year deal if he's still hanging around after a bit. Think he could do a lot for Bennett and Tkachuks offensive development.

 

[King In The North]

Oh baby prospect camp will be fun if Jankowski and Tkachuk get lined up.

 

[Volica]

A ton of youth on this Flames team, if Tkachuk makes the team of out camp.
The problem right now with both Monahan/Bennett is they're not ready to really take on major defensive roles with the team, so you have to line them up with a veteran RW that has some defensive upside. Unless you believe Monahan is ready to take over that role next year (he should be closing in on it; he's now been an NHL'er for 3 years, entering 4).

Gaudreau - Monahan - Tkachuk
Ferland - Backlund - Frolik
Shinkaruk - Bennett - X
Bouma - Stajan - X

Chiasson on the Bennett line would be pretty cool probably. Three guys who like to throw their weight around, Chiasson's not a bad defensive player, you could isolate the three a-la Monahan Y1.

A lot of options for Calgary this season. Ferland is no sure thing either; it's already been mentioned they want him more belligerent... IF he doesn't do that, I could see him parting ways... and I love me some Ferly.
(X being who wins it in camp? Chaisson, Bollig, etc)

 

[The Gnome]

I agree with the notion that Backlund and Tkachuk should not be paired together, because of the defensive responsibilities Backlund will have. It'll be too much for the kid...As it stands right meow, I'd try this:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Tkachuk
Shinkaruk - Backlund - Frolik
Ferland - Bennett - Chiasson
Bouma - Stajan - Hathaway

 

[King In The North]

Or what about this:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Bouma-Backlund-Frolik
Tkachuk-Bennett-Shinkaruk
Hathaway-Stajan-Chiasson

Can change Ferland and Shinkaruk.

 

[AgeOfBennett]

Or what about this:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Bouma-Backlund-Frolik
Tkachuk-Bennett-Shinkaruk
Hathaway-Stajan-Chiasson

Can change Ferland and Shinkaruk.

The Bennett line is going to be destroyed defensively. Two rookies and one sophomore. They need a vet on the line, either from within the roster or from FA. I really hope Tre gets one of the RHS RWers from FA

 

[ThatHighGuy]

After the rookie tournament, where do you guys expect him to play this year?