Lottery odds?

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Gumby, Jan 28, 2004.

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  1. Gumby

    Gumby Registered User

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    Anybody know what the odds are for the draft lottery for each slot?
     
  2. JackDaniel

    JackDaniel Registered User

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    Pretty interesting question!!!

    Looks like 75 other persons who dosent know th answer like me expected to find some answer here before me... :D

    JD
     
  3. Riggins

    Riggins Registered User

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    I'll try to find them

    I think last place has a 40% chance of getting the 1st pick.. we'll see
     
  4. Riggins

    Riggins Registered User

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    30th........... 25.0%
    29th........... 18.8%
    28th........... 14.2%
    27th........... 10.7%
    26th............. 8.1%
    25th............. 6.2%
    24th............. 4.7%
    23rd............. 3.6%
    22nd............ 2.7%
    21st............. 2.1%
    20th............. 1.5%
    19th............. 1.1%
    18th............. 0.8%
    17th............. 0.5%

    teams can move up a max of 4 spots. So teams 1-5 are the only ones who have a shot at Ovechkin.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2004
  5. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    So according to your numbers Zed, the last place team has a 48.2% chance of retaining the #1 pick.
     
  6. Pachoo

    Pachoo Registered User

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    That would be correct. Looks like Penguins have pretty good odds on getting Ovechkin.
     
  7. Riggins

    Riggins Registered User

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    Yeah, so the odds (for Pittsburgh) are even better than I thought.

    Pittsburgh GP 51 PTS 30
    Chicago GP 51 PTS 36
    Washington GP 51 PTS 37
    Columbus GP 50 PTS 38
    Anaheim GP 51 PTS 44
     
  8. Big McLargehuge

    Big McLargehuge Global Moderator

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    The Penguins are on pace for 48 points(ouch), the Mighty Ducks are on pace for 71. If the teams stay with that same pace and the Ducks won the lottery...as a Penguin fan I think I'd go mentally insane...
     
  9. Gumby

    Gumby Registered User

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    7 points is an awful lot to lose to the Pens, then the Caps go out and beat the Rags last night....though beating Jagr's new team was sweet. I wish they'd hurry up and deal everyone so they can go on a nice long losing streak. Besides, the Pens have already been given too much with getting (the best player I've ever seen) Lemieux and Jagr in less than 20 years (nevermind the #1 pick last year). I think it's finally time for a little luck to come the Caps way.

    BTW, thx for diggin up the odds...I couldn't find em anywhere.
     
  10. Swervedriver

    Swervedriver Registered User

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    The Ducks could fall in a skid if they decide to sell instead of buy as the deadline approaches.
     
  11. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    This is INCORRECT---teams can move up a maximum of 4 positions--but this includes the position a team is at pre-lotto ......in effect they can only move up 3 positions above their current position.........the example in the Draft Rules spelled out on the www.centralscouting.com website makes this crystal clear stating only a lotto winner from one of the 4 worst finishers can select #1 overall.......the 5th place team pre--lotto thus only can move to #2 overall if it wins the lotto........
     
  12. MHJS

    MHJS Registered User

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    and the #1 team can't fall past #2 I think. I may be wrong.
     
  13. Riggins

    Riggins Registered User

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    That's correct.
     
  14. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    INCORRECT.

    Or are you somehow going to try and explain away the year the Isles finished 5th, won the lottery and moved up to 1st and grabbed Dipietro? Didn't think so.

    Still not sure how you can think moving up a maximum of 4 positions somehow means a maximum of 3 positions.

    http://www.isles-list.com/index.cfm?action=news&articleid=2967
     
  15. Brodeur

    Brodeur Registered User

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    Other examples, LA won the lottery in '95 and moved from #7 to #3 and picked Aki Berg. Chicago won it in 1999, moved from #8 to #4 which they eventually traded.
     
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