TSN: Lottery Odds Revised

[NYVanfan]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=459859

IMO this is good news for teams like the Canucks, who are not bad enough to be bottom 5, but challenged to make the playoffs.

Click to read more...

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

Good adjustment. Considering I have Canucks finishing in 9th, I'm happy to see 1/20 odds versus 1/38.

 

[Jyrki21]

Tinkering ever so slightly with the odds, meh. The fact that the NHL applies the lottery only to the first pick (or first three as of 2016) suggests that they still don't really get it, though. At least 2016 is a move in the right direction, but they're still leaving in place a very powerful perverse incentive. It is still way, way better to do very poorly than to narrowly miss the playoffs.

It's sad to me that there is a tipping point at which many fans would, quite rationally, prefer to lose games rather than win them. This doesn't happen in other sports except maybe basketball (but the lottery is fairer in the NBA). I don't think players truly attempt to tank, but it does make the fanship experience a bit silly when it's so much worse to be middle-of-the-pack than terrible.

Randomize all non-playoff teams' chances at every one of the first 14 picks, or weight it slightly (not as much as now). Every non-playoff team still gets a decent draft pick at least. Try to win all games with nothing to lose. Done.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Tinkering ever so slightly with the odds, meh. The fact that the NHL applies the lottery only to the first pick (or first three as of 2016) suggests that they still don't really get it, though. At least 2016 is a move in the right direction, but they're still leaving in place a very powerful perverse incentive. It is still way, way better to do very poorly than to narrowly miss the playoffs.

It's sad to me that there is a tipping point at which many fans would, quite rationally, prefer to lose games rather than win them. This doesn't happen in other sports except maybe basketball (but the lottery is fairer in the NBA). I don't think players truly attempt to tank, but it does make the fanship experience a bit silly when it's so much worse to be middle-of-the-pack than terrible.

Randomize all non-playoff teams' chances at every one of the first 14 picks, or weight it slightly (not as much as now). Every non-playoff team still gets a decent draft pick at least. Try to win all games with nothing to lose. Done.

Could you imagine where Pittsburgh would be without Crosby and Malkin? Probably in Quebec.

If the league went forward with your plan you could end up with some really bad teams end up getting screwed by the lottery year after year, eventually completely eroding the fanbase and needing to relocate.

 

[Seattle Totems]

There's more parity today than when Pittsburgh drafted Crosby and all teams are on a much better financial ground. Crosby was drafted at the beginning of the salary cap era. There is no way that the Penguins would be in Quebec if there was a cap back then.

The new lottery odds make no difference. They still give the bottom feeders every incentive to tank and the same 4 or 5 teams will abuse the system again and again.

 

[IntangiBo]

Could you imagine where Pittsburgh would be without Crosby and Malkin? Probably in Quebec.

If the league went forward with your plan you could end up with some really bad teams end up getting screwed by the lottery year after year, eventually completely eroding the fanbase and needing to relocate.

Crosby doesn't really fit in with the lottery system.

 

[Luck 6]

Could you imagine where Pittsburgh would be without Crosby and Malkin? Probably in Quebec.

If the league went forward with your plan you could end up with some really bad teams end up getting screwed by the lottery year after year, eventually completely eroding the fanbase and needing to relocate.

You do have a good point here. I'm not an advocate of tanking games, or rewarding losing, but some teams are bad just because they are plan bad. Those teams should get help to improve, te best way to do that is through the draft. I do agree the concept of tanking should be abolished, I think the rules in 2016 accomplish that.

 

[n00bxQb]

Would've liked to see:

1. 14/105 = 13.3%
2. 13/105 = 12.4%
3. 12/105 = 11.4%
4. 11/105 = 10.5%
5. 10/105 = 9.5%
6. 9/105 = 8.6%
7. 8/105 = 7.6%
8. 7/105 = 6.7%
9. 6/105 = 5.7%
10. 5/105 = 4.8%
11. 4/105 = 3.8%
12. 3/105 = 2.9%
13. 2/105 = 1.9%
14. 1/105 = 1.0%

 

[Regal]

Could you imagine where Pittsburgh would be without Crosby and Malkin? Probably in Quebec.

If the league went forward with your plan you could end up with some really bad teams end up getting screwed by the lottery year after year, eventually completely eroding the fanbase and needing to relocate.

I agree with this. As much as people complain about the idea of tanking, I don't think it's actually much of a problem. Some teams are just bad and need help.

However, some teams are bad because they're continually mismanaged and I don't think they should necessarily be rewarded for it. Likewise, teams constantly knocking on the door of the playoffs shouldn't be punished for competing. I think any system needs to protect say the bottom 3 or bottom 5 teams from falling too far (maybe the bottom 3 can't fall out of the top five and the bottom 4-5 can't fall out of the top 10), but it'd be cool to have the chance for say the 14th pick to move into the top ten in the 7th or 8th spot. Just giving that much more if a chance of getting an impact player. I think having the lottery change the draft order more would also increase ratings and off season talk leading up to it.

 

[IntangiBo]

I agree with this. As much as people complain about the idea of tanking, I don't think it's actually much of a problem. Some teams are just bad and need help.

Crosby isn't a Pen because they tanked, he is because they won a lottery.

 

[Chubros]

Would've liked to see:

1. 14/105 = 13.3%
2. 13/105 = 12.4%
3. 12/105 = 11.4%
4. 11/105 = 10.5%
5. 10/105 = 9.5%
6. 9/105 = 8.6%
7. 8/105 = 7.6%
8. 7/105 = 6.7%
9. 6/105 = 5.7%
10. 5/105 = 4.8%
11. 4/105 = 3.8%
12. 3/105 = 2.9%
13. 2/105 = 1.9%
14. 1/105 = 1.0%

I'd like to see a system based on points in the standings rather than finishing position. When teams are separated by only a few points after 82 games, their chances should reflect their performance: close to equal.

The odds could also be flattened as desired. Perhaps every team starts with a fixed number of balls in the draw and then is awarded additional ones in proportion to points.

The advantage of this system is it removes the situation at the end of the season where teams are faced with a clear incentive to lose specific games and leapfrog backwards in the standings.

 

[Upoil]

Crosby isn't a Pen because they tanked, he is because they won a lottery.

Little bit of column A and a little bit of column B. They had the best odds in the lottery because they tanked. Along with Sabers, Jackets, and Rangers they all had three balls in the lottery.

 

[Regal]

Crosby isn't a Pen because they tanked, he is because they won a lottery.

Isn't really related to the point I was making.

 

[me2]

I would not mind teams missing the playoffs getting 2 second round picks by inserting 14 from 31-44.

 

[CanaFan]

Tinkering ever so slightly with the odds, meh. The fact that the NHL applies the lottery only to the first pick (or first three as of 2016) suggests that they still don't really get it, though. At least 2016 is a move in the right direction, but they're still leaving in place a very powerful perverse incentive. It is still way, way better to do very poorly than to narrowly miss the playoffs.

It's sad to me that there is a tipping point at which many fans would, quite rationally, prefer to lose games rather than win them. This doesn't happen in other sports except maybe basketball (but the lottery is fairer in the NBA). I don't think players truly attempt to tank, but it does make the fanship experience a bit silly when it's so much worse to be middle-of-the-pack than terrible.

Randomize all non-playoff teams' chances at every one of the first 14 picks, or weight it slightly (not as much as now). Every non-playoff team still gets a decent draft pick at least. Try to win all games with nothing to lose. Done.

if the crux of your objection to the current system is that it incentivizes fans to "cheer" for their team to lose, I'd suggest it isn't an important objection. The league isn't in the business of taking away the only positive that fans of a terribad team have. While I understand it upsets your worldview that fans of teams that have won 15-20 games should get excited about the prospect of winning that incredibly important 21st game and cheer for missing the playoffs by 35 points instead of 37, but I would suggest that what fans of other teams cheer for is not really any of your (or my) business. Just be thankful that you don't (currently) follow a team as devoid of winning as Buffalo, Florida, or NYI and leave those fans to cope however they feel they must.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Could you imagine where Pittsburgh would be without Crosby and Malkin? Probably in Quebec.

If the league went forward with your plan you could end up with some really bad teams end up getting screwed by the lottery year after year, eventually completely eroding the fanbase and needing to relocate.

Indeed. While it is easy to say teams just being shy of the playoffs technically deserve a higher draft pick to reward competitive play. Teams toiling in perpetual cellar dwelling need it far more. Fans want something to cheer about, even if that includes losing for a better pick. The illusion of tanking (which is what it really is) suffices. Take that away and you'll have many fans abandoning the season once they know they have nothing to cheer for until next year.

 

[Fat Tony]

if the crux of your objection to the current system is that it incentivizes fans to "cheer" for their team to lose, I'd suggest it isn't an important objection. The league isn't in the business of taking away the only positive that fans of a terribad team have.

The problem I see is that I don't believe these fans make the NHL any more money than the same fans if their team is winning. I would say they make the NHL less money. But in the end, there will always be bad teams.

 

[CanaFan]

The problem I see is that I don't believe these fans make the NHL any more money than the same fans if their team is winning. I would say they make the NHL less money. But in the end, there will always be bad teams.

Your last point is important, namely that there will _always_ be "bad" teams since, by definition, there will always be a 30th place team. So it isn't the lottery that causes fan interest to drop off, it is the fact that they are out of the playoff race which generally precedes the sell off of assets ("tanking") and not the other way around.

So once a team is out of the playoff race, will anything truly hold fan attention and thus allow them to make as much money as the teams still in the race? I'd argue that the ability to sell the hope and promise of a 1st overall pick would do more to sell seasons tickets than anything else the league could do at that point for a bottom feeding team.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

The problem I see is that I don't believe these fans make the NHL any more money than the same fans if their team is winning. I would say they make the NHL less money. But in the end, there will always be bad teams.

It's more about selling hope and the possibility of becoming better. Edmonton and Toronto have made a business out of that. Say Buffalo bottoms out this year, but a new draft paradigm made them pick 13th. Fans have very little to look forward to going into next season since UFAs are unlikely to show much interest in a basement team and a prospect drafted 13th overall is years away from making the roster.

Now compare that to them drafting a marquee player. That breeds excitement, thus renewed interest.

 

[Yossarian54]

It's more about selling hope and the possibility of becoming better. Edmonton and Toronto have made a business out of that. Say Buffalo bottoms out this year, but a new draft paradigm made them pick 13th. Fans have very little to look forward to going into next season since UFAs are unlikely to show much interest in a basement team and a prospect drafted 13th overall is years away from making the roster.

Now compare that to them drafting a marquee player. That breeds excitement, thus renewed interest.

Yep. Ultimately the draft is another equalisation system. Consider where we would be if there was no reverse-order draft and it was a matter of luring 18 year old players via money and prestige.

The new odds strike a pretty good balance I think. While the incentive is still to finish lower from a list management perspective; as we know from our owners, there are significant revenue advantages to winning more games. Be it for a playoff spot or just to keep up season ticket takeup.

 

[DCantheDDad]

It's more about selling hope and the possibility of becoming better. Edmonton and Toronto have made a business out of that. Say Buffalo bottoms out this year, but a new draft paradigm made them pick 13th. Fans have very little to look forward to going into next season since UFAs are unlikely to show much interest in a basement team and a prospect drafted 13th overall is years away from making the roster.

Now compare that to them drafting a marquee player. That breeds excitement, thus renewed interest.

Exactly, it is all a buisness and at the end of the day, the league needs to look at what will make them the most money. Excitement over a potential #1 pick can draw huge interest, just look at these boards when the rumours of the Canucks making pitches for the 1st overall pick. It was probably more exciting than the year before, when we lost in the first round.

 

[DoubleTrouble]

Personally i would like to see all 14 non playoff teams having the same odds

This would stop teams from tanking


Do the picking of the teams name live for the draft order

 

[CanaFan]

Personally i would like to see all 14 non playoff teams having the same odds

This would stop teams from tanking


Do the picking of the teams name live for the draft order

Would it? I mean, the type of activity that most fans associate with "tanking" is the sell off of "now assets" - usually soon-to-be UFAs - for "future assets" like picks and prospects. Even without the draft as an inducement, don't you think most teams at the bottom of the league standings would still make these same trades simply to avoid losing their assets for nothing through UFA? I mean, even ignoring the "tanking" aspect, dont you think Buffalo still makes the exact same trades of pending UFAs Pommonville, Vanek, Miller, and Moulson? They aren't going to allow the assets leave for nothing and they aren't going to get an equivalent 25-29 year old asset, so the "now" for "futures" trades most likely occur anyway. What most people call tanking and blame the draft for incenting would still happen anyway because it is still the best use of a soon-to-expire asset.

 

[Win One Before I Die]

It is now easier than ever for Bettman to rig the draft. Great.

 

[DoubleTrouble]

Would it? I mean, the type of activity that most fans associate with "tanking" is the sell off of "now assets" - usually soon-to-be UFAs - for "future assets" like picks and prospects. Even without the draft as an inducement, don't you think most teams at the bottom of the league standings would still make these same trades simply to avoid losing their assets for nothing through UFA? I mean, even ignoring the "tanking" aspect, dont you think Buffalo still makes the exact same trades of pending UFAs Pommonville, Vanek, Miller, and Moulson? They aren't going to allow the assets leave for nothing and they aren't going to get an equivalent 25-29 year old asset, so the "now" for "futures" trades most likely occur anyway. What most people call tanking and blame the draft for incenting would still happen anyway because it is still the best use of a soon-to-expire asset.

If the team sucks and is not going to make the playoff they will still trade away UFA.. no matter what the draft format is.. Trades will happen either way

Doing it where all non playoff teams get the same odds would make for better hockey as the season winds down as they know they still have the same chance to get 1st overall..