OT: LOCAL COVID19 - PART III... Seriously, local only

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I’m interested to know what people feel an acceptable number of local daily deaths from Covid are. Is it 0, 5, 10 or it doesn’t matter I want life to be normal.

This is where we're at, now? "People are going to die so pick an acceptable number?" Even if COVID Zero isn't attainable, it should still be the goal. Frankly, what matters more to me is that we're doing what we can from a policy perspective to curtail the spread.

Besides, I'm sure nobody on a hockey forum is qualified enough to put any kind of reasoning behind a number like that. It'd be guesswork at best and wishful thinking at worst. Not conducive to meaningful discussion IMO.

To that end, informative thread from Queensway Carleton:

 

[dumbdick]

So Covid is over now?

 

[BankStreetParade]

This is where we're at, now? "People are going to die so pick an acceptable number?" Even if COVID Zero isn't attainable, it should still be the goal. Frankly, what matters more to me is that we're doing what we can from a policy perspective to curtail the spread.

Besides, I'm sure nobody on a hockey forum is qualified enough to put any kind of reasoning behind a number like that. It'd be guesswork at best and wishful thinking at worst. Not conducive to meaningful discussion IMO.

To that end, informative thread from Queensway Carleton:

We should adopt this policy for everything else in life. We know we'll never have zero motoring related deaths, so why have speed limits? Stop signs? Traffic signals? We know we'll never have zero obese people, so why tax sugary, processed foods and drinks? Could you imagine if some of these people were responsible for making policy? I mean, there's already some in the fold, but could you imagine if it was on a large scale?

All this pandemic has shown us is the age of reasonable discourse is dead and needs to be replaced. Current forms of government and policy are obsolete and need to be replaced. Our species is going to die and take everything else in the world with it and the idiots will be arguing whether they're actually dying while they die.

 

[Micklebot]

So Covid is over now?

Oh ya, for sure. We can go back to worrying about all the other reasons you shouldn't lick flag poles

 

[coladin]

I’m interested to know what people feel an acceptable number of local daily deaths from Covid are. Is it 0, 5, 10 or it doesn’t matter I want life to be normal.

There have been increases in deaths and sadly it looks to be the most vulnerable who are dying. Those who are 70+

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Sadly that's happening now in the States, people dying with Covid, and still not admitting it's Covid.

It's happening in Canada as well

 

[Golden_Jet]

It's happening in Canada as well

what Canadians dying and saying they don't have Covid. Haven't seen those articles yet on Canadians, read lots in the US.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

what Canadians dying and saying they don't have Covid.

Ya, and people going into the hospital refusing to believe they have covid

 

[GCK]

This is where we're at, now? "People are going to die so pick an acceptable number?" Even if COVID Zero isn't attainable, it should still be the goal. Frankly, what matters more to me is that we're doing what we can from a policy perspective to curtail the spread.

Besides, I'm sure nobody on a hockey forum is qualified enough to put any kind of reasoning behind a number like that. It'd be guesswork at best and wishful thinking at worst. Not conducive to meaningful discussion IMO.

To that end, informative thread from Queensway Carleton:

I’m interested in peoples perspective as it helps me understand their position better.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I’m interested in peoples perspective as it helps me understand their position better.

Fair enough – you’ve got mine!

 

[GCK]

Fair enough – you’ve got mine!

It’s a challenge for me. Zero deaths would be ideal but when I look holistically at all the damage we have suffered through, mentally, long Covid, socially and economically I truly think we need to accept some deaths. We live in peaceful bliss not knowing the number of influenza deaths and I’m not sure that isn’t the right approach to take.

 

[Mingus Dew]

We should adopt this policy for everything else in life. We know we'll never have zero motoring related deaths, so why have speed limits? Stop signs? Traffic signals? We know we'll never have zero obese people, so why tax sugary, processed foods and drinks? Could you imagine if some of these people were responsible for making policy? I mean, there's already some in the fold, but could you imagine if it was on a large scale?

All this pandemic has shown us is the age of reasonable discourse is dead and needs to be replaced. Current forms of government and policy are obsolete and need to be replaced. Our species is going to die and take everything else in the world with it and the idiots will be arguing whether they're actually dying while they die.

Perhaps I'm stretching the analogy but we also don't ban driving nor do we prohibit people from ruining their bodies with fast food. Balance in all things.

Policy makers should continue to come up with ways to reduce spread and increase society's ability to withstand the virus. But again, we will never beat this thing - the idea of a total victory over COVID is a flawed paradigm. The best we can do is learn to cope with it as well as we can.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Beech]

Curious where is the chart from, maybe a link thanks.
To bad they don't show vaccinated vs unvaccinated.

The vaccinated versus unvaccinated can be found on the governments web site.
All Ontario: Case numbers and spread is vaccinated versus not versus age.
IT IS OLD, OCT 21..pre booster, pre-Omicorn , pre late year vaccination push

Up to Jan 21, they had data by age. They have removed it. (the note on the web site is: Due to technical difficulties..) I found new data at the public health Ontario. All age related data on the government site, is getting a "Due to technical difficulties..."

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/...i/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en
Data until Dec 21, was one that I collected from the Ontario site. It can be back tracked from the above site (public health).

there is an inconsistency in the presentation. Per the government site, anywhere from 98.7% for the 70-79 and ~ 100% for the 80 plus have had a booster shot. That suggest that the unvaccinated septuagenarians and over are near negligible. Yet, they continue to succumb to it. It pretty much means that even a vaccinated, yet vulnerable, will not escape it.

The basic issue is the same. We have reduced deaths by ~ 10 x over Alpha/Delta. But it remains high. It seems that we have now hit the minimum. And that minimum suggests that ~ 20,000 - 40,000 elderly/vulnerable are at high risk..

I will update in 2 weeks to see if the numbers have fallen. I doubt it. France is showing ~ 40,000. At their 65 million to our 38 million, it seems that they too have hit their minimum. I will do the math for all other nations. It does seem that about 0.6-1% of society's vulnerable (over 70 and/or morbidity issues) may not escape this. These are at 100% infections in a year.

Canada may see 20,000-40,000
The USA 180,000-380,000
and so on for most Western nations.

Let's hope the covid pill works.

 

[JD1]

Perhaps I'm stretching the analogy but we also don't ban driving nor do we prohibit people from ruining their bodies with fast food. Balance in all things.

Policy makers should continue to come up with ways to reduce spread and increase society's ability to withstand the virus. But again, we will never beat this thing - the idea of a total victory over COVID is a flawed paradigm. The best we can do is learn to cope with it as well as we can.

Has anyone anywhere in the world come up with a policy that reduces the spread of Omicron? If there's a successful model, I'm all for it. But there really isn't

But here we are, locally, enduring lockdowns that are as struck or stricter than anywhere in the world and there's scant f***ing evidence that they work. Sure we can point to a rapid drop in cases, but look at the curves everywhere else. Spike up. Spike down. So how do we Statistically tie our spike down to lockdowns? We can't. And anyone saying that there's a direct link is bullshitting.

But we sure as hell can point to a lot of disruption

 

[Beech]

I also question why we'd look to emulate how a country with nearly 3 times as many Covid deaths per 100k handled or is handling things.

the deaths are not understood.

They are not universal. This is a selective pandemic. See my tables...It is only attacking Septuagenarians and above. No one else is touched.

As a result death rates can soar or tumble depending on the rate of infection among that group. The UK has been running at ~3X Canada's infection rate in that group. It and the USA have been the same. They have failed to shield the vulnerable group. For some reason that I cannot understand, the elderly in both of these nations have failed to acquire the fear/seriousness that ours do in Canada!! This also applies to many European nations as well.

The math is simple. Nations with low death number = nations that shielded their vulnerable. And not the global society.

Germany/Canada/Australia and a good 5-10 other Western nations, did a far better job (government and the people themselves) of shielding that group. It is incredible to realize that only ~10% of that group have caught it in Canada. Yet a good 50% of the rest of us have. Unreal to realize 5 x less.

 

[Beech]

It’s a challenge for me. Zero deaths would be ideal but when I look holistically at all the damage we have suffered through, mentally, long Covid, socially and economically I truly think we need to accept some deaths. We live in peaceful bliss not knowing the number of influenza deaths and I’m not sure that isn’t the right approach to take.

the math is starting to show 0.6-1% of the vulnerable (above 70 and/or morbidity/comorbidity).

greater Ottawa = 1.1 million
~15% vulnerable = 165,000
0.6-1% death = 990-1650 deaths
4 month wave. peak at 2 x higher than both ends . ~ 5-8 at ends, 10-16 at peak.

~ 6000 in Ottawa die every year. Covid will add/replace as much as 990-1650. Essentially a person who may die of the flu will die of covid. A person who will otherwise die of other issues in anyone year, may die of covid. And so, what deaths will be added to society? good luck in figuring it out.
https://app06.ottawa.ca/calendar/ot... and Morbidity Report Eng PRESS Jan 13-12.pdf

HARSH, but true. Governments and the people will come to this reality. They need more time.

The flu and Pnemonia combined kill a solid 2000 poeple a year in ottawa (see figure 58). We may or may not feel covid's 990. We would probably feel 1650. That could add anywhere from 0 to as much as the whole 1650 to the death rate...that could be felt.. Hospitals will be swamped). But there may be nothing that we can do about it.

 

[GCK]

Has anyone anywhere in the world come up with a policy that reduces the spread of Omicron? If there's a successful model, I'm all for it. But there really isn't

But here we are, locally, enduring lockdowns that are as struck or stricter than anywhere in the world and there's scant f***ing evidence that they work. Sure we can point to a rapid drop in cases, but look at the curves everywhere else. Spike up. Spike down. So how do we Statistically tie our spike down to lockdowns? We can't. And anyone saying that there's a direct link is bullshitting.

But we sure as hell can point to a lot of disruption

China where they chase people back home with Drones is somewhat effective.

 

[GCK]

the math is starting to show 0.6-1% of the vulnerable (above 70 and/or morbidity/comorbidity).

greater Ottawa = 1.1 million
~15% vulnerable = 165,000
0.6-1% death = 990-1650 deaths
4 month wave. peak at 2 x higher than both ends . ~ 5-8 at ends, 10-16 at peak.

~ 6000 in Ottawa die every year. Covid will add/replace as much as 990-1650. Essentially a person who may die of the flu will die of covid. A person who will otherwise die of other issues in anyone year, may die of covid. And so, what deaths will be added to society? good luck in figuring it out.
https://app06.ottawa.ca/calendar/ottawa/citycouncil/obh/2012/01-16/NEW - 5864 Ottawa Mortality and Morbidity Report Eng PRESS Jan 13-12.pdf

HARSH, but true. Governments and the people will come to this reality. They need more time.

The flu and Pnemonia combined kill a solid 2000 poeple a year in ottawa (see figure 58). We may or may not feel covid's 990. We would probably feel 1650. That could add anywhere from 0 to as much as the whole 1650 to the death rate...that could be felt.. Hospitals will be swamped). But there may be nothing that we can do about it.

Nobody really knows how many cases and deaths are caused by influenza. We don’t test pre or post death. It’s all mathematical models.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

In Ontario, we’re going to have a provincial election in June, and the Liberals are now launching trial balloons, to see if Ontario voters want to follow Quebecs’ lead, down the authoritarian path to more control over our lives. They want to redefine “ Fully Vaccinated “ to mean three shots, and want to bar anyone who is not “fully vaccinated “ from the LCBO and cannabis outlets….. and they do not recognize natural immunity.

A new study by the U.S. Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention found that natural immunity among unvaccinated people with a past infection was considered superior to vaccine-induced immunity in persons who had not yet had the virus.

So if you either had the vaccine ( 2 shots ) or not, and contracted Covid, you would have superior protection ( from severe effects of Covid ) than someone who was deemed “ Fully Vaccinated “ ….according to the CDC, they found, in the same study, that those who were vaccinated and had previously had the virus were the best protected from the severe effects of Covid.

Why do those in charge, or those who want to be in charge, not yet recognize natural immunity? And why do they want to force you to have additional shots, if you already have superior protection from natural immunity? It certainly appears that they select the “science” that gives them the most control over our lives, and do not recognize the science that contradicts their potion on Covid, and their control?


Remember, the loss of our constitutionally protected civil liberties began with “ 14 days to flatten the curve “.

CDC Study: Natural Immunity Provides Significantly More Protection Against COVID Than Vaccination Only

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Looks like the health minister may have been right: Vitamin D may not protect against COVID, as previously suggested

but she was not, according to the science…. And just how was she qualified? Look up her none medical or scientific background….. there was good reason for her removal from that position.

 

[GCK]

In Ontario, we’re going to have a provincial election in June, and the Liberals are now launching trial balloons, to see if Ontario voters want to follow Quebecs’ lead, down the authoritarian path to more control over our lives. They want to redefine “ Fully Vaccinated “ to mean three shots, and want to bar anyone who is not “fully vaccinated “ from the LCBO and cannabis outlets….. and they do not recognize natural immunity.

A new study by the U.S. Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention found that natural immunity among unvaccinated people with a past infection was considered superior to vaccine-induced immunity in persons who had not yet had the virus.

So if you either had the vaccine ( 2 shots ) or not, and contracted Covid, you would have superior protection ( from severe effects of Covid ) than someone who was deemed “ Fully Vaccinated “ ….according to the CDC, they found, in the same study, that those who were vaccinated and had previously had the virus were the best protected from the severe effects of Covid.

Why do those in charge, or those who want to be in charge, not yet recognize natural immunity? And why do they want to force you to have additional shots, if you already have superior protection from natural immunity? It certainly appears that they select the “science” that gives them the most control over our lives, and do not recognize the science that contradicts their potion on Covid, and their control?


Remember, the loss of our constitutionally protected civil liberties began with “ 14 days to flatten the curve “.

CDC Study: Natural Immunity Provides Significantly More Protection Against COVID Than Vaccination Only

Another post where you ignore context. You ignore serious outcomes and focus on infection. You also ignore infection + vaccination was more effective in providing protection against new infection.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

China where they chase people back home with Drones is somewhat effective.

That sounds kinda fun. For the drone operator, anyway.

I wonder how one applies for a position like that. 45+ years of playing video games might come in handy for that one!

 

[dumbdick]

Has anyone anywhere in the world come up with a policy that reduces the spread of Omicron? If there's a successful model, I'm all for it. But there really isn't

What are you basing that on? It's an infectious disease spread from person-to-person contact.

Limiting person-to-person contact will very obviously slow the spread. There's really no reason to doubt that. It's like saying shark attacks would fall if we all stopped swimming in the ocean. It's just plainly true on the face of it.

There's lots of legitimate reasons to question the lock downs without resorting to this kind of talk. Our own policies may very well have slowed the spread fairly substantially compared to a do nothing approach. To argue that they haven't is equivalent to saying that they haven't limited person-to-person contact. But that's quite obviously not true.

Very legitimate questions about the cost of these policies vs their benefits. But no reason to suggest, without evidence, that they've been wholly ineffective at slowing the spread (everywhere in the world, no less).

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

but she was not, according to the science…. And just how was she qualified? Look up her none medical or scientific background….. there was good reason for her removal from that position.

Here's the science, per the link you didn't click:

To assess the relationship between vitamin D levels and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity, the researchers conducted a Mendelian randomization study using genetic variants strongly associated with increased vitamin D levels. They looked at genetic variants of 14,134 individuals with COVID-19 and over 1.2 million individuals without the disease from 11 countries.
In the study published in PLOS Medicine, the researchers found that among people who did develop the disease, there was no difference between vitamin D levels and a likelihood of being hospitalized or falling severely ill.

Any issues with the methodology on this particular study, or are you just being contrarian again?

Anyway, all this tangential bullshit doesn't change the fact that Ontario is reporting 64 deaths yesterday (not deaths that happened yesterday, but deaths that were logged in the system,) more than 3,400 cases (at a time where public testing is so reduced as to make the number non-credible and likely way lower than reality,) and more people in ICU than we've seen since June. What we're doing is not working.

EDIT to add today's data: