OT: LOCAL COVID19 - PART III... Seriously, local only

[Micklebot]

Seeing as how the stickied Mod note in the last thread seemed to be widely ignored, we're going to start fresh rather than me going through and deleting all the posts that didn't belong.

A reminder, this thread is for Covid19 topics of local interests

Local interest refers to what's going on in your community.

Posts about causes, symptoms, diagnosis, treatment, origins and prevention ect are no longer allowed unless there is a local component. Otherwise they belong in main board thread

For more general discussion, go to the main thread below:
COVID 19 - The Coronavirus Outbreak

Please try your best to stay on topic, failure may result in your post being deleted, receiving an infraction, a thread ban, or all of the above. If posters in general can't adhere to these rules, we simply will not have a covid19 thread in the Sens forum.

Click to read more...

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

New thread.....

 

[Back in Black]

This thread has covid….

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

This thread has covid….

No, this is part 3. Triple Vaxxxed edition

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Ontario Dashboard - Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

 

[DrEasy]

Some interesting stats from: Ontario reports 2,081 hospitalizations, 288 ICU admissions and more than 11K new COVID-19 cases

"According to data released by the Ontario Science Table on Tuesday, which takes into account population sizes, people who are fully vaccinated with at least two doses are 82.7 per cent less likely to end up in hospital and 94.4 per cent less likely to end up in ICU compared to people who are unvaccinated."

"Acknowledging population size, the science table noted on Tuesday, people who are fully vaccinated with at least two doses are 16.6 per cent less likely to contract COVID-19 compared to those who are unvaccinated."

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Beech]

the numbers are moving in the right direction.

In two weeks, we will realize that this wave is way weaker than previous. Baring another mutation, Omciron has rendered Covid on par with the FLU or close too. In 2-4 days that will become crystal clear.

Last year at this time case were around 7 K and deaths in the 150 zone. (two weeks apart)
Now cases are in the 12 K and deaths are in the 30 zone. (deaths recent, infections 2 weeks old). Todays infections are 40 k. My guess is in 2 weeks we will about 90 deaths.

that is a net 10 times less. By the 17th, everything will be in the rear view mirror. Had we hit 40,000 cases last January 4, on Jan 18 we would have seen ~800 deaths.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

the numbers are moving in the right direction.

In two weeks, we will realize that this wave is way weaker than previous. Baring another mutation, Omciron has rendered Covid on par with the FLU or close too. In 2-4 days that will become crystal clear.

Last year at this time case were around 7 K and deaths in the 150 zone. (two weeks apart)
Now cases are in the 12 K and deaths are in the 30 zone. (deaths recent, infections 2 weeks old). Todays infections are 40 k. My guess is in 2 weeks we will about 90 deaths.

that is a net 10 times less. By the 17th, everything will be in the rear view mirror. Had we hit 40,000 cases last January 4, on Jan 18 we would have seen ~800 deaths.

You speak with a lot more certainty on this than most, so let me just ask you this: what if you’re wrong?

 

[NyQuil]

You speak with a lot more certainty on this than most, so let me just ask you this: what if you’re wrong?

I'm pretty optimistic based on what happened in the UK.

People can argue that South Africa was a very different environment for Omicron (in terms of vaccination rates, natural immunity, population age, etc.), but the UK is pretty consistent.

 

[Caeldan]

UK does have something like 65% of its 12+ population with three doses though.

Not sure where we're at, but pretty sure it's significantly lower than that.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

Oh I missed a lot. Lol

One thing on the topic of nurses vs doctors and paying nurses.

First, if we want to have good preventative care and have GPs for all. We need to allow nurse practitioners to Bill ohip for care. Right now, if you see an NP, it's because that doctors office has hired one. They can do everything a GP can except prescribe narcotics. The doctors lobby pretty hard to prevent NPs from doing their job. But in theory if we allowed them to Bill ohip, you could pay an NP 1/4 of what you pay a GP. Lots of hospitals utilize NPs to cut costs. We have a clinic that is NP led in our area.

And nurses retention. So many nurses have left nurses all together. Pay is one reason. But benefits like sick time are a big thing. Personally I'm fine with my wage (and fine knowing that doctors make lots more than me). But a PSW or an LPN or any nurse working in long-term care, they get paid like crap. There is also no incentive for taking on more responsibility. I can be ECMO, dialysis and ICU trained and get no monetary benefit for that (where most countries pay nurses more for more responsibility).

But most nurses I know right now are pissed. They are ticked off at bill 124 when other professions do not get the same restrictions on pay. They are pissed about the fact that they are asking nurses to volunteer their time to work more. They are pissed at lack of equipment, PPE and other things. On top of that, nurses have had vacation taken away. Then having to walk through protests in their way into work. I know nurses who've been spit on into work.

The government needs to address pay and benefits of LPN and PSW, 100%. I'm not sure top paid RNs need more money. But I'm not going to complain about some compensation for knowing advanced skills like ECMO.

 

[Beech]

You speak with a lot more certainty on this than most, so let me just ask you this: what if you’re wrong?

I hope that this is not a TLDR ?

we have had 4 previous waves. March/April/May 2020. Dec/January 2020/2021. April /May 2021. Sept/Oct 2021. All tended to behave the same. The time between testing positive and death was text book, 14 days. I got to a point were I could tell you death 2 weeks out to within 1-5 people and in any nation or state or province you wanted.

That math is not showing anything that high.

By Jan 1, I was somewhat sure that all heck had not broken loose. In fact, I was feeling fairly optimistic by Dec 23. In 2 weeks since, I have not seen anything that alarms me. No number has skyrocketed in a "WTF". In either case, 2 more days and it will become even clearer.

So what if I am wrong?
1) The vulnerable know that this is coming after them and not the rest of us. You do not have to tell an 80 year old he is as good as dead if he catches it. Nor do you have to tell his family. Nor do you have to tell government people. They have implemented safe guards like crazy.
2) based upon news and other info. Namely South Africa and the UK, their handling has suggested milder and in South Africa's case, their view is a sharp hard wave that passes quickly.
3) In the past and Europe was a key indicator, European nations would respond to upticks with lockdowns and almost instantly the cases plummeted. As such, open things up and monitor, For the Premier to get on TV and say lockdown is seconds. Stay at home orders can be implemented in second.

a reality exists that we have known for a while now. We will not bring covid down to zero. It is heading to being a nastier version of the FLU (probably 2-3 times worst...thanks to being more infections, but about the same in terms of death rate). So Canada will have to endure ~10,000 deaths a year. I do not believe that (barring a mutation) we will ever track at the 2% that we were at pre May 2021. We are down to 0.4%, roughly the same as the FLU (among the vulnerable only, much lower in society as a whole). About 1 - 2 million people a year will get it. At 0.4% ~ 4,000-8,000.

 

[Beech]

Oh I missed a lot. Lol

One thing on the topic of nurses vs doctors and paying nurses.

First, if we want to have good preventative care and have GPs for all. We need to allow nurse practitioners to Bill ohip for care. Right now, if you see an NP, it's because that doctors office has hired one. They can do everything a GP can except prescribe narcotics. The doctors lobby pretty hard to prevent NPs from doing their job. But in theory if we allowed them to Bill ohip, you could pay an NP 1/4 of what you pay a GP. Lots of hospitals utilize NPs to cut costs. We have a clinic that is NP led in our area.
-------
The government needs to address pay and benefits of LPN and PSW, 100%. I'm not sure top paid RNs need more money. But I'm not going to complain about some compensation for knowing advanced skills like ECMO.

A friend of mine from Trois RIVIERS ( Jean C. stomping ground) ran in Québec political circles.

Do you know what Quebec's biggest problem is? Money to pay pensions and government employees. Quebec has been crippled by their obligations in that area.

So, Nurses want more and feel they need more, Teachers, Doctors, Fireman, police, civil service as a whole. So salaries and pensions go up. And where does the money come from? We could raise taxes. That is widely known to stall economies. So, unemployment and more government obligations and less tax dollars. So less dollars, how do we pay obligations...AHHH Greece, we simply take it by force from the people. Read up on their Draconian measures of 2008-2012.

Pageau, while I am forever grateful for what you do. It won't be long before I cannot afford you. Ontario will look different in 2030 and beyond.

New Premiers will be coming that will make Rae days and Mike Harris seem soft.

 

[Micklebot]

First, if we want to have good preventative care and have GPs for all. We need to allow nurse practitioners to Bill ohip for care

Can't believe this isn't already done, nurse practitioners have been around since the 90s and can provide so much of the care that we typically see doctors for at a fraction of the cost. It's a common sense change that solves so many issues.

 

[Caeldan]

I've got a friend who works as a PSW at a hospital. Previously in LTC, and while it sounds like the hospital is an improvement in how she's treated, I'm surprised that we have anyone willing to go into PSW as a field...
The pay is atrocious for what they do, and it seems like not only do they literally get shat on by patients but management as well.
Patient flat out assaults you and you need to miss work? That's on you.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I don’t see the logic of people lining up outside Bayshore shopping centre, for a free Covid test kit…..

 

[thinkwild]

Ontario Dashboard - Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

That reproductive number of 1.29 surprised me. I had been hearing this was now highly transmissible like the measles. I was expecting a number closer to 10 or something. Surely that number will start rising soon.

It seems really hopeful that this micro omicron variant will allow many to get natural immunity safely. But is it really the end? I mean we have already seen this one evade vaccines. The virus will still be circulating around the world for years and mutating. Omicrons big brother mega omega could still come. Do you take this time now as a brief respite until the continuing mutations we have experienced continue? Many seem to feel this is the end, man i hope so, but it doesnt seem the obvious outcome.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Some important information on rapid tests wrt Omicron here
Antigen tests and Omicron

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That reproductive number of 1.29 surprised me. I had been hearing this was now highly transmissible like the measles. I was expecting a number closer to 10 or something. Surely that number will start rising soon.

It seems really hopeful that this micro omicron variant will allow many to get natural immunity safely. But is it really the end? I mean we have already seen this one evade vaccines. The virus will still be circulating around the world for years and mutating. Omicrons big brother mega omega could still come. Do you take this time now as a brief respite until the continuing mutations we have experienced continue? Many seem to feel this is the end, man i hope so, but it doesnt seem the obvious outcome.

Exactly to this point.. Check out this thread

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Stylizer1]

I don’t see the logic of people lining up outside Bayshore shopping centre, for a free Covid test kit…..

First it was for Movies, then phones, now Covid tests. What's next? I predict nachos.

 

[Golden_Jet]

First it was for Movies, then phones, now Covid tests. What's next? I predict nachos.

I Remember when we did for first time in playoffs

 

[Stylizer1]

I wonder who pays for all those unused covid shots? Did we buy them on consignment or are we responsible for all of it? Its too bad we will never see the agreement about what was involved in agreeing to use these drugs. What if the governments of the world are just dealers?