Let's talk some Granlund - Part 2 Grandboogaloo

Status
Not open for further replies.

RobertKron

Registered User
Sep 1, 2007
15,516
8,652
Reading the post accurately would be helpful if you're actually going take the time to argue.

Yes I think it would be easy for Granlund to become a 25 goal - 15 assist - 40 point type of player. I'd bet he'll end this season with a line of 21G - 12 assist - 33 point line, so it's not exactly a stretch with a little development.

Okay?

A consistent 25g guy is probably roughly a top ~45 goal scorer in the league. It's fine if you see Granlund that way, but I'm just trying to clarify that we're not in the same territory as some folks where they decide a second liner puts up 60 points minimum or whatever.
 

Gunner Stahl

Registered User
Feb 9, 2011
79
2
Okay?

A consistent 25g guy is probably roughly a top ~45 goal scorer in the league. It's fine if you see Granlund that way, but I'm just trying to clarify that we're not in the same territory as some folks where they decide a second liner puts up 60 points minimum or whatever.

Sorry that was my fault. I read your original reply incorrectly as a "45 goal scorer", as in, 45 goals/season; not a top 45 goal scorer as it was intended. Yah I think he'll be a middle 6 player that spends time on the 2nd pp. That's what I see him progressing as anyways.
 

RobertKron

Registered User
Sep 1, 2007
15,516
8,652
Sorry that was my fault. I read your original reply incorrectly as a "45 goal scorer", as in, 45 goals/season; not a top 45 goal scorer as it was intended. Yah I think he'll be a middle 6 player that spends time on the 2nd pp. That's what I see him progressing as anyways.

No worries.

I think that he'll have a tough time because I see him as unlikely to see the type of opportunity he's had this season much more in the future, and when coupled with his extremely high shooting percentage, it becomes tough to see him improving all that much on his totals even with an improvement in play.

Realistically, the Sedins are likely to be around and playing on the PP for at least a couple more years, and Horvat, Baertschi, Sutter, Eriksson will all also likely be around as well. Beyond them, you've got guys like Goldobin, Dahlen, Boeser coming in who look to eat into Granlund's opportunities (I think it's safe to say that if they're in the league they're going to be PP type guys, and likely used more in the scoring spots on the PP as well). Then there's also the pretty consistent talk from management that they're looking to bring in more scoring up front.
 

CanaFan

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
19,887
5,849
BC
It's actually a perfectly sound argument. When you change a variable, let alone multiple variables in any equation you are going to have different products. Fact.

If you want to do a comp that's more on the recreational/just for fun level (something like crosby vs ovi) then have at it though. Just don't pretend that it's an accurate one.

Without getting into it too much, this is exactly why NHL teams have scouts and watch the players. Yes stats can provide some insight but at the end of the day they don't nearly provide the whole picture that is needed to make an accurate comp.

I would agree with your assessment of Granlunds tape via "mildly decent goal totals, weak, loses puck battles constantly, low assist totals, mediocre defensively".

No one is arguing against that.

He's a developing player. Things will need to be improved. But if he's already got the scoring thing down, the rest can be taught. Usually it's the scoring part that never comes!

I would feel sorry for the guy if he ever read these. Everyone acts likes he's making 7 mil a season, has 0 goals, takes horvats icetime, and just banged your gf.

The argument is: he's cheap, young, can put the puck in the net, and he doesn't deserve to get ragged on like he does in these threads. If better players come along then he'll either get better or lose his spot, simple as that.

None of us have a crystal ball, so these making ridiculous comps with some loose association with the future (because that's what happened to player A, and they had the same stats) are foolhardy. They serve as little more than fuel for the constant bash train that continues to roll along.

Or maybe I'm wrong and Granlund will end up just like every other 24 yr old player in the modern era that ended with 17G, 12A, and 31pts after playing 66 games. Because style doesn't matter. I'm sure they've all developed into exact molds...

Things will always be different when comparing players. That doesn't invalidate the comparisons. But when it comes to production these differences don't account for much.

Ask yourself this; would Edmonton trade McDavid for Granlund? When you arrive at your obvious answer of "no" you do so by comparing two players who exist in very different situations. McDavid is used differently than Granlund. He has different linemates, plays a different system, is a different age, etc etc. Dozens of other qualitative differences exist that make them entirely different players and yet *somehow* you work through those differences to arrive at your answer that you would not trade him for Granlund.

Now obviously this is an exaggerated example but the point is GM's make player-to-player comparisons all the time. And yes, every time they do they have to work through differences in deployment, linemate strength, coaching systems, PP time, etc. But they work through it nonetheless. That's because regardless of the nuances of their situations there are still enough underlying similarities that these comparisons can be made.

So while I agree there exist some situational differences between 2014-15 Matthais and 2016-17 Granlund I wholeheartedly disagree that they invalidate any comparison of their relative value. In fact if anything the situational factors largely benefit Granlund and harm Matthais. Linemate quality, ice time, PP time all fall in Granlund's favour. Yes age is in Granlund's favour (23 vs 26) but I don't view it as overly significant, as Granlund's production this year is quite similar to his production 2 years ago in Calgary. If he is on a development curve it seems to be a fairly shallow one. And with the holes in the rest of his game I think his production overstates his value more than understates it.

On the whole I think the Matthais comp is a quite fair one to Granlund at the moment. If he takes a step forward next year and improves in other areas of his game or sees a step forward in production then I will revise this comparison accordingly. But for the moment I think it holds quite well.
 

He

Registered User
Jul 2, 2015
104
26
Winnipeg
The thing with Granlund is that, while I think that the original trade was a good one, and that he's had a decent season, it's still easy to recognize that he's been getting lucky. I would try trading him, maybe sell high, depending on what his value is to other GMs.
 

DL44

Status quo
Sep 26, 2006
17,904
3,827
Location: Location:
The thing with Granlund is that, while I think that the original trade was a good one, and that he's had a decent season, it's still easy to recognize that he's been getting lucky. I would try trading him, maybe sell high, depending on what his value is to other GMs.

You must be talking about his raw luck.
Because his luck/60 is brutal.
 

Shareefruck

Registered User
Apr 2, 2005
28,971
3,715
Vancouver, BC
The Matthias comparison is an okay one in terms of overall effectiveness (although their styles are almost polar opposites). However, I think Matthias functions a little better as a 4th liner who can chip in and not hurt you too much in limited minutes, whereas Granlund strikes me more as the type of player who needs minutes/skill to play with, but isn't good enough to deserve it yet. I also think Matthias wasn't as exposed nearly as badly defensively. Some of that might be deployment, but I think alot of it was that he had enough impressive speed and strength to mask those issues some of the time.
 
Last edited:

opendoor

Registered User
Dec 12, 2006
11,719
1,403
However, by using your logic of overall minutes and associated point production, Our future captain Bo Horvat will only be slightly better than "Bernier, Schaefer, and Cook"; which says something about the argument on the whole.

What? Horvat has 60% more points than Granlund with pretty similar minutes while being 21 years old. You honestly think the gulf between the two is one being "slightly better" than the other?

Horvat already has the 4th most points of any U25 Canuck player since 2000 and if he maintains his current pace he'll be 2nd, only behind Kesler's 24 year old season. Horvat's closest statistical comparables in that sample are the Sedins and Kesler, though Horvat is more productive at a younger age than any of those guys were.
 

F A N

Registered User
Aug 12, 2005
18,735
5,962
I think that he'll have a tough time because I see him as unlikely to see the type of opportunity he's had this season much more in the future, and when coupled with his extremely high shooting percentage, it becomes tough to see him improving all that much on his totals even with an improvement in play.

I think Granlund will have a tough time improving his numbers if he gets anywhere close to 23+ goals. That's just the nature of a low scoring league. Patrice Bergeron has scored 30, 23, 32, and currently has 17 goals the last 4 seasons and Granlund is no Bergeron. But if he can put up 18-22 goals for the next 3-5 seasons he would have carved out a decent NHL career.

I think too much has been made out of his shooting %. Granludn appears to be a high percentage shooter if you look at his North American body of work. Plus the season isn't over yet. A few more shots on net without scoring a goal and his percentage goes down.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
143,076
114,348
NYC
Some people say Granlund is sheltered but he starts most of his shifts in the neutral zone and his Quality of Teammates is awful
 

Proto

Registered User
Jan 30, 2010
11,523
1
Of course, there are those of us whose distaste for the trade wasn't necessarily "I'd never trade Shinkaruk" -- some of us thought if management decided Shinkaruk was a likely bust (for whatever reason), then the correct move would have been to use him in a trade for a high-upside player or to move up at the draft, etc. Something like Shinkaruk, McCann, and the Canucks 2nd last year might have gotten them another high pick in the draft, rather than Granlund and Gudbranson, two players that are almost certainly going to have a negligible impact on this team whenever it's good again.

My issue with Granlund is that he's unlikely to be a true talent 16% shooter, so even if the bit of bad luck he's had with linemates scoring levels off, his goals will probably drop as well. Granlund as of a few games ago had the 110th most TOI/G at forward (that's "4th best forward on the team" territory league wide) and the 85th most icetime in the league at forward overall. He's had 1st line minutes and he's put up 29 points to this point. I'm almost certain if you gave that much ice time to any decently talented player that's 22-24 you'll get similar results. Zack Hyman has been similarly productive in Toronto and he's a complete afterthought on that roster.

If Granlund is still outpacing guys like Gaudette and Boeser and Goldobin and Dahlen in 2-3 years, something has gone even more wrong for this organization -- which seems impossible at this point.
 

Proto

Registered User
Jan 30, 2010
11,523
1
Sorry that was my fault. I read your original reply incorrectly as a "45 goal scorer", as in, 45 goals/season; not a top 45 goal scorer as it was intended. Yah I think he'll be a middle 6 player that spends time on the 2nd pp. That's what I see him progressing as anyways.

So do I, which is a player you can sign for 2-4m a year for 2-3 years every summer. Granlund is cheaper, but that's almost pointless for a team where the Canucks are.

Granlund is fine, but moving Shinkaruk (who had some value) for a "fine" piece didn't make much sense for the team. Granlund has done about as well as could be expected based on where he was in his development, but it's still not a difference maker for the Canucks.

In my opinon, Granlund was just another version of the Canucks insane unwillingness to rebuild over the past 2.5 years. The same short-circuit shortcut that leaves them with a roster full of players with negligible value. Now that the Gillis guys are gone, whose left to sell off for assets? Where are they going to get additional picks right now? It's looking mighty lean.
 
Last edited:

y2kcanucks

Le Sex God
Aug 3, 2006
71,229
10,319
Surrey, BC
Some people say Granlund is sheltered but he starts most of his shifts in the neutral zone and his Quality of Teammates is awful

Actually, in terms of on ice GF%, relative to his linemates his is the worst on the team (not counting Dorsett due to him only playing 122 minutes).

In terms of zone deployment, only the Sedins have taken more offenesive zone face-offs than Granlund.

So I'm not sure where you're getting these stats, but you're wrong.
 

scorvat53

Registered User
Jan 21, 2017
433
18
Wow lot a hate on here. In terms of overall play I think Granlund is one of our best forwards.

he fits well with the sedins, i could see him breaking out next year if he sticks on that line
 

scorvat53

Registered User
Jan 21, 2017
433
18
Of course, there are those of us whose distaste for the trade wasn't necessarily "I'd never trade Shinkaruk" -- some of us thought if management decided Shinkaruk was a likely bust (for whatever reason), then the correct move would have been to use him in a trade for a high-upside player or to move up at the draft, etc. Something like Shinkaruk, McCann, and the Canucks 2nd last year might have gotten them another high pick in the draft, rather than Granlund and Gudbranson, two players that are almost certainly going to have a negligible impact on this team whenever it's good again.

My issue with Granlund is that he's unlikely to be a true talent 16% shooter, so even if the bit of bad luck he's had with linemates scoring levels off, his goals will probably drop as well. Granlund as of a few games ago had the 110th most TOI/G at forward (that's "4th best forward on the team" territory league wide) and the 85th most icetime in the league at forward overall. He's had 1st line minutes and he's put up 29 points to this point. I'm almost certain if you gave that much ice time to any decently talented player that's 22-24 you'll get similar results. Zack Hyman has been similarly productive in Toronto and he's a complete afterthought on that roster.

If Granlund is still outpacing guys like Gaudette and Boeser and Goldobin and Dahlen in 2-3 years, something has gone even more wrong for this organization -- which seems impossible at this point.

I mean he played a checking role with sutter and megna for almost the whole year haha that doesn't really help your numbers. He only started playing with the sedins like a month ago.
 

CanaFan

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
19,887
5,849
BC
Wow lot a hate on here. In terms of overall play I think Granlund is one of our best forwards.

he fits well with the sedins, i could see him breaking out next year if he sticks on that line

Funny cause outside of his sort of decent goal total I think he's one of our worst forwards. He does almost nothing positive while on the ice outside of popping the odd goal.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
143,076
114,348
NYC

y2kcanucks

Le Sex God
Aug 3, 2006
71,229
10,319
Surrey, BC

:laugh:

Oh man, where do I begin?

First, please explain why you are including defensemen? What does Alex Edler's deployment have anything to do with Granlund's deployment?

Second, why are you including forwards who have barely even played, or barely even played for us? Cramarossa's deployment is quite meaningless considering he's only played 4 games for us. Ditto for Boucher. Same could be said for Dorsett too since he has barely played at all this year.

So yes, you are wrong, because of your lack of understanding how to use these stats.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
143,076
114,348
NYC
:laugh:

Oh man, where do I begin?

First, please explain why you are including defensemen? What does Alex Edler's deployment have anything to do with Granlund's deployment?

Second, why are you including forwards who have barely even played, or barely even played for us? Cramarossa's deployment is quite meaningless considering he's only played 4 games for us. Ditto for Boucher. Same could be said for Dorsett too since he has barely played at all this year.

So yes, you are wrong, because of your lack of understanding how to use these stats.

Why would you not include defensemen in a team ranking? What kinda ****in gong show do you run?

Oh and I haven't gotten into why zone starts are basically worthless yet.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad