OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 2)

[Stanley Cup]

Rising rates and the end of QE are going to hit tech pretty hard. Also feels like the retail / meme movement is running out of steam - I suspect a lot of folks are going to get wiped out as these stocks revert to their fundamental value, 1/10 of where they were 6 months ago. These weren't and aren't 5-25B companies and the lights are about to go out. Markets don't always go up, that will be the lesson in 2022.

A lot of small caps have already been crushed. Look at 1Y charts it's ugly for most. Now the big cap tech are following, rightfully.

Again, keep an eye on services this year. We were just sent a presentation showing us a massive shift from goods spending to services spending before the current wave. As soon as we reach a generally accepted endemic, we'll see great movement there.

 

[japhi]

I don't play segments much, mostly blue chips and index ETF's. I do like oil and have been in SU, KEY and ENB since fall 2020. Banks, when they go on sale. Have some poor performers like NFI and way too much ABX. And lots of VFV.

My strategy is straightforward, keep enough cash on hand to buy good companies when they go on sale, add to my positions, trade infrequently. Boring but 8-12% YOY gets me to retirement in my early 50s, that's good enough for me.

 

[montreal]

I don't play segments much, mostly blue chips and index ETF's. I do like oil and have been in SU, KEY and ENB since fall 2020. Banks, when they go on sale. Have some poor performers like NFI and way too much ABX. And lots of VFV.

My strategy is straightforward, keep enough cash on hand to buy good companies when they go on sale, add to my positions, trade infrequently. Boring but 8-12% YOY gets me to retirement in my early 50s, that's good enough for me.

if you like oil, i've done real well with SLB, great company. Started picking some up in the 14's. Wish I had bought a lot more. I've got COP and OXY as well all in a portfolio I run for my family.

 

[japhi]

if you like oil, i've done real well with SLB, great company. Started picking some up in the 14's. Wish I had bought a lot more. I've got COP and OXY as well all in a portfolio I run for my family.

Will check them out, thx! Am overweight Oil and maple but always looking for good companies to follow

 

[RC51]

sell everything right now. Interest rates will start to rise the stock bubble will burst and a correction is about to HIT. Always remember, stocks have NO pictures of the queen on them. You have MADE NO MONEY UNTIL YOU SELL. SO SELL, take the money and run, sit on it until its time to buy again, enjoy the gains, pay off ALL loans and debts. Its time to be in FULL CASH ready to strike. REMEMBER when the shiiiit hits the fan" CASH IS KING"

 

[japhi]

sell everything right now. Interest rates will start to rise the stock bubble will burst and a correction is about to HIT. Always remember, stocks have NO pictures of the queen on them. You have MADE NO MONEY UNTIL YOU SELL. SO SELL, take the money and run, sit on it until its time to buy again, enjoy the gains, pay off ALL loans and debts. Its time to be in FULL CASH ready to strike. REMEMBER when the shiiiit hits the fan" CASH IS KING"

Been hearing this same advice for years. Trying to time markets is a good way to underperform. Lots of data on this. Terrible advice.

 

[canucklover123]

I’ve just been quietly picking up shares of NVDA. We’ll see how I’m looking in a couple years

 

[DailyKaizen]

sell everything right now. Interest rates will start to rise the stock bubble will burst and a correction is about to HIT. Always remember, stocks have NO pictures of the queen on them. You have MADE NO MONEY UNTIL YOU SELL. SO SELL, take the money and run, sit on it until its time to buy again, enjoy the gains, pay off ALL loans and debts. Its time to be in FULL CASH ready to strike. REMEMBER when the shiiiit hits the fan" CASH IS KING"​

Been hearing this same advice for years. Trying to time markets is a good way to underperform. Lots of data on this. Terrible advice.

This demonstrates the two extremes of the spectrum of the possibilities. Often, at least more often than not, the accurate prediction is somewhere in the middle? When it comes to personal capital allocation being invested generally has some very good results, but having dry powder, to invest when "there is blood on the streets" seems equally as important. Buffett is no saint but he was the only person to ace Dr Benjamin Graham's university course that gave us seminal works like Securities Analysis and The Intelligent Investor, his rationale to
"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"

seems to be quite appropriate and wise. Dear fellow investor, you never want to have too much capital sitting idle that it hampers returns, however it is most advantageous to have more than you want and need when the critical moment occurs. In business it seems it is most advantageous to be Machiavellian...in investing it seems to be more advantages to be Sun Tzuian...

 

[japhi]

Problem with 100% cash and timing the market is you will never time the exact top OR the bottom, and while on the sidelines will miss the biggest gaining days of the year. Lots of data on this. Further, with inflation at 7%+ your money is losing value every day.

I am expecting a correction at some point this year but missing out on 5-10% upside waiting for a 10-20% correction while my money loses value at 2% a quarter would be insane. I am about double my cash position at 10% hoping for a Q1 sale but again, who knows what will happen this year. Only guaranty is volatility, so balance seems to be the best strategy. Portfolio's that lack diversity, like these all tech ports people are holding, could get punished.

 

[RC51]

one more thing I forgot to add."I will watch my stuff a lot, if I see a correction starting I will cash out". Well the problem with that is, as a home Investor you are NOT the first to to get the correction info, the BIG investors get the info first. By the time YOU get the warning you have already lost 20-30% of your money. If I have made a very nice gain in stock price over the last 3-4 years but in just one day I can lose all my gains in a correction run, NO I must sell BEFORE the correction, even if I sell and see the stock rise more for a while ( I think I lost money somehow because I sold early) When the market is high ( like now) its time to play defense, lock in the gains, enjoy the money you made and wait to get a CLEAR idea of the market in the next 2-3 years, be ready to grab solid stock at corrected price, dont buy wild stocks, after a correction its time to buy BLUE CHIP SOLID foundation stock when you start over again. Once your new BLUE chip have regained the historical price and you made a good 20-30% you can then look for a few WILD CARDS. Wild cards is all about risk. If the company has no solid assets ( land, buildings, material assets it can sell in a massive downturn) it is extreme HIGH RISK ( see Bre-x) I dont buy this stuff ever, I am not willing to roll all my money on a pair of dice. I am an Investor not a gambler.

 

[montreal]

If you are an investor, just buy solid companies and add shares on the dips over time. I started trading in 1993, have seen a lot of ups and downs, just ride it out and hope that we don't have a Japan like market like they did for 20 odd years.

 

[japhi]

RC51 - Your strategy has been proven to deliver subpar returns. You are in fact gambling - you believe you can time and outperform the broad market.

Smart money stays invested. SP500 has returned 12.5% the last 30 years, including the 2000 crash, the GFC, Covid and the however many corrections in between. Time in the market and balanced diversified portfolio is how you build wealth.

Out of curiosity, how long have you been 100% cash?

 

[LyricalLyricist]

I do side with the reminder that’s it’s not profit until you cash out. Greed is a dangerous thing although I feel comfort with my current investments.

 

[RC51]

RC51 - Your strategy has been proven to deliver subpar returns. You are in fact gambling - you believe you can time and outperform the broad market.

Smart money stays invested. SP500 has returned 12.5% the last 30 years, including the 2000 crash, the GFC, Covid and the however many corrections in between. Time in the market and balanced diversified portfolio is how you build wealth.

Out of curiosity, how long have you been 100% cash?

You assume and make a big mistake. I have been fully retired for 20 years. My needs and investment Ideas are much different then yours at this time. My posts are for the average investor not the over 70 people. The average investor that has yet to make his gains , have cashed out and enjoying some comfort now. My grand children wont have to start with nothing either. By the way, how exactly is cashing out " early" market timeing? I am not waiting to the last minute at all, second I am NOT outperforming the market, in fact I am just accepting a lower gain ( over 30-40 years) to reduce RISK of getting cought in a MAJOR hit, when that would cause the addition of YEARS before I regain back to where I was. Yes maybe YOU have time to make up a big hit, you may have time to start over, But everybody get older, many dont ever get to my age, you don't want to be E=MC skrewed

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Market crash is coming for certain.

 

[japhi]

Fair enough!

You mentioned pulling your money out then re-entering the market in 2-3 years.... that is trying to time the market. You also didn't mention anything about preserving capital while in retirement - if that's the case I'd stay invested but not in individual equities. I still don't see any reason to have to go 100% cash but glad it's working for you!

FWIW, there last few corrections lasted less then 6 months. Covid return to ATH's was like 100 days or so. Even during the GFC, if you had a balanced portfolio it was a pretty short turn. Central banks seem to freak out anytime SHTF and prop up markets.

 

[japhi]

Market crash is coming for certain.

How do you define 'crash'?

 

[BehindTheTimes]

How do you define 'crash'?

I’m talking a catastrophic event that makes 2008 look gentle.

 

[Scintillating10]

sell everything right now. Interest rates will start to rise the stock bubble will burst and a correction is about to HIT. Always remember, stocks have NO pictures of the queen on them. You have MADE NO MONEY UNTIL YOU SELL. SO SELL, take the money and run, sit on it until its time to buy again, enjoy the gains, pay off ALL loans and debts. Its time to be in FULL CASH ready to strike. REMEMBER when the shiiiit hits the fan" CASH IS KING"

I will sell some by March. But not all. Market is more nervous than usual. Almost like many know it is coming after last 2 banner years.

 

[Scintillating10]

Banks I have done alright on since early fall. For banks that is. No wonder though? With all the fees they charge? I think the gov't uses the banks as a way to rip off people. I have $45,000 in a CIBC savings account. Last month I got $1.75 interest. What a rip-off! Then they charge me $5 for any transaction on that account.

 

[japhi]

I’m talking a catastrophic event that makes 2008 look gentle.

I guess anything is possible but I'm not sure what the trigger would be for an event like that, at least in the short term.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I guess anything is possible but I'm not sure what the trigger would be for an event like that, at least in the short term.

Everything is a bubble. MBS, CMBS, CDO’s have remained on the menu, variance swaps, you name it, everyone is overleveraged, all the easy money has lead to similar shenanigans as 2008, but with impending rate hikes on the horizon due to the fear of hyperinflation. Trillions of dollars in derivative exposures, there’s no way it can’t blow up imo. When I say blow up, I’m not talking a 5-10% pullback, I’m talking blowing the f*** up. This is my opinion of course. Nothing has f***ing changed, in fact, it’s worse than ever. Except this time it almost looks deliberate.

 

[RC51]

" youve got to know when to hold them"
"youve got to know when to fold them"
"know when to walk away"
"know when to RUN"

 

[RC51]

things to think about.
millions have quit the $5 per hour jobs, just to get them back you have to go 15+ this will lower your profits and lower your stock.
any company that runs on a union with a new contract due, you can bet the union will ask for millions because the stock prices are sky high and they want to cash in also. ( but ) as they get a huge contract = lower stock and the contract last 3-5 years forcing down the stock more.
Biden will start to fix the tax balance again forcing the stock down as the big boys PAY TAXES.
Interest rates MUST go up to slow the inflation, stocks go down.
we all know the market is overvalued and way way due for a correction.
the market HATES politics, and unstable markets.
you as a home investor will never get the sell info ahead of all the BIG investors, buy the time you hear the correction has started you already lost 20% and diving by the minute.
and lets not FORGET the Covid effect that has not slowed down and all costs related ( trillions) MUST hit the dollar value forcing many imported raw materials to jump way up and in turn forcing down pure profit and again lower stock evaluations.
I can go on and on but I think you get the picture by now.

 

[QuebecPride]

Banks I have done alright on since early fall. For banks that is. No wonder though? With all the fees they charge? I think the gov't uses the banks as a way to rip off people. I have $45,000 in a CIBC savings account. Last month I got $1.75 interest. What a rip-off! Then they charge me $5 for any transaction on that account.

Look out for better options on savings account.