Series Talk: Leafs vs Jackets- Series Preview and Discussion - MOD WARNING POST #816

[XXIV97]

If I understood correctly, the Leafs are still in play for either the Cup or Lafrenier

Well, the Leafs would have to win the lottery (3% chance) so the most likely it playoffs or no 1st pick.

 

[Vaive50]

Although just before the break, the Leafs had that horrible 3 game Western losing streak to the basement teams but then beat TB, and even though their last 15 games played were a record of only 7-6-2, but the Jackets were far worse than that with a record of 3-6-6. I don't know if that will mean anything with all that time off since then. Let's just hope that Reilly has heeled his pain by now.

 

[mikeyz]

I think the top 4 of a conference each play each other once to determine the seeding of them. But the Leafs are in line to face whoever the best team is, no matter what, should we get past Columbus.

I hate this. So, if Montreal beats Pittsburgh, they get the #4 bye seed in the first round when they were the #12 seed in the East? They should play the #1 seed.

Re-seeding has to happen.

 

[lovemyleafs]

Mikheyev will be the x-factor in this series for us. His size and speed matches up well against the Blue Jackets. Hopefully we get back him at 100%.

 

[Vaive50]

I hate this. So, if Montreal beats Pittsburgh, they get the #4 bye seed in the first round when they were the #12 seed in the East? They should play the #1 seed.

Re-seeding has to happen.

They did not make it clear how the playoffs will start. They made it clear that the top 4 conference teams will play each other in regular season type games to seed 1-4. They also made it clear that the next 8 teams in each conference will play each other in "playoff-style" games in best of 5 series.

But nowhere is it written what happens next. Of the teams playing the best of 5 series, how will they get seeded 5-8. Then will it be the former conference style playoff format where team 1 plays team 8 (and so on) or will it be the divisional style where you have the two WC teams.

 

[Vaive50]

Mikheyev will be the x-factor in this series for us. His size and speed matches up well against the Blue Jackets. Hopefully we get back him at 100%.

He was scheduled to be back by late March or early April, so I'm sure he'll be at 100% minus the rust.

 

[Nineteen67]

Would that not be Carolina's pick from the Marleau trade?

Top 10 protected

 

[Nineteen67]

I wonder if they’ll play the top four tournament simultaneous to the play in. If Montreal beats Pitt would a team throw a game to get the four seed?
I think reseeding would be a better plan.

 

[AIexisLafreniereNYR]

Please lose, so you can get the better of the Hurricanes pick. While we take your pick, and go on a nice run

 

[Menzinger]

Andersen is the most important guy to watch.

If hes at least average the Leafs should win the series pretty handedly. And at least the team has Campbell if things get wonky

 

[saffronleaf]

Start Campbell. We're likely going to get October Andersen / all of 2019-2020 Andersen. Can't throw away games.

 

[al secord]

Please lose, so you can get the better of the Hurricanes pick. While we take your pick, and go on a nice run

"I know a bigfoot when i see one, Gus!"

 

[Cor]

I hate this. So, if Montreal beats Pittsburgh, they get the #4 bye seed in the first round when they were the #12 seed in the East? They should play the #1 seed.

Re-seeding has to happen.

The nice thing is, Bettman has said it hasn’t been determined yet.

Apparently league wants that static bracket, while the Players want the reseeding

 

[ottomaddox]

I shall give my full analysis of the TOR series versus CBS tonight at 10pm.

 

[The CyNick]

I hate this. So, if Montreal beats Pittsburgh, they get the #4 bye seed in the first round when they were the #12 seed in the East? They should play the #1 seed.

Re-seeding has to happen.

I like brackets. It's easier to sell to the masses. Easier for gambling. Better for social media engagement.

I believe the players like reseeding, but we have a bracket format in the playoffs now, so why change?

 

[ACC1224]

FYI Leafs vs Vancouver WCF 1994 is on in a few minutes

 

[The Masters]

If Leafs go in with a soft attitude, they'll lose

If they really bring it theyll win

 

[Kelly]

Probably a dumb question but I haven't been paying attention, do we get access to the two need european free agents we just signed?

Prob not eh

 

[zeke]

1. I think keefe is gonna keep Hyman with matthews but i would reunite him with tavares and marner. Those 2 need hyman's speed, boardwork, and front net drive much more than Matthews-Nylander do. Mikheyev might be a perfect fit on that top line.

2. Our defense over the course of the year...thru xGF%...

First 23gms (Babcock):

#1 (elite usage): Rielly 23gms, 50.4% - Ceci 23gms, 50.0%
#2 (average usage): Muzzin 22gms, 44.8% - Barrie 23gms, 46.6%
#3 (soft usage): Dermott 10gms, 46.8% - Holl 21gms, 46.7%
#3 (soft usg): Marty 7gms, 43.8%/Sandin 6gms, 52.9%/Gravel 3gms, 52.4%

Top pair the only one that did the job, and just barely. 2nd and 3rd pair disastrous considering their usage.


2nd 23gms (from Keefe Hire to Rielly injury):

#1 (tough usage): Rielly 23gms, 51.7% - Ceci 23gms, 53.3%
#2 (tough usg): Muzz 16gms, 57.2%-Holl 23gms, 55.2%/Marty 7gms, 58.3%
#3 (soft usage): Dermott 23gms, 60.0% - Barrie 23gms, 56.4%

Almost perfectly healthy, with the Muzzin-Holl pairing just dominating even against tough comp. Ceci and Barrie actually switched part the way through here so ceci's overall qoc wasn't actually top pair tough and Barrie's wasn't actually bottom pair soft. But man, everything really clicked here. And then the injuries hit.

Last 24gms:

#1 (elite usg): Muzzin 15gms, 58.3%/Marty 12gms, 51.4% - Holl 24gms, 55.4%
#2 (avg usg): Dermy 23gms, 49.8%/Mo 1gms, 73.8% - Barrie 24gms, 49.3%
#3 (soft usage): Sandin 22gms, 47.7% - Ceci 10gms, 51.6%
#3 (soft usage): Rosen 4gms, 47.2% - Liljegren 11gms, 36.6%

An absolute mess due to the injuries but the performances were still decent.

Muzzin-Holl was still great while muzz was healthy despite even tougher usage, Dermott-Barrie was just OK in secondary usage. Note that it was actually dermott who filled in for Muzzin on that top matchup pairing and not Marincin (who mostly played with Barrie), so dermott's middling xgf% there is actually a bit more impressive than it looks. (Also a nice new example of a dominant possession bottom pair dman seeing a clear decline with tougher usage, as per usual).The kids unfortunately weren't very good at all despite extreme sheltering, and Ceci was a welcome replacement for them at the end.

Looking back at the year it sure seems like 3 clear phases for the dcorps, and I'd tend to that being the main driver of the corresponding overall team performance changes during the year - awful 1/3, awesome 1/3, average 1/3.

If that's true, then that's damn good news because now we should be back to the fully healthy core we saw in the awesome 1/3. The key to it all being just how great the muzz-holl pair was in an increasingly tougher role. That allows Rielly to play in non-elite matchups for the first time since he was a cub, which should be great for his performance level by putting him in a more similar role as other elite dmen with his skillset like Carlson, Burns, Hedman, etc.. I would tend to look to Ceci as his main partner, because a) in retrospect that rielly-ceci pair was actually holding its own in a very tough role, and b) whatever their overall impact, ceci is better defensively than barrie. But the real beauty of muzz-holl rising to shutdown status is that Keefe is now free to play around more with the other pairs, so Barrie and Ceci can swap in depending on the situation. And then of course this all leaves Dermott in a role we know he can dominate in, and whichever of barrie/ceci is down there with him.

3. I hope he goes back to Engvall as the Johnsson replacement on the 3rd line not Spezza.


My preferred lineup:

Mikheyev-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Engvall-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Clifford-Gauthier-Spezza

Rielly - Ceci
Muzzin - Holl
Dermott - Barrie

With Barrie stealing some minutes from Ceci in offensive situations.



P.S. there's a real chance NICK ROBERTSON gets a chance to inject some energy into that 4th line, too. Which is far more intriguing than seeing malgin or petan or korshkov.

 

[Buds17]

An opening round (of sorts) matchup that I wouldn't have expected to see happen, so there's that at least. Wouldn't mind reseeding as an addition since this playoff format isn't typical anyway. I'm good with even just this particularly fresh series too though.

 

[zeke]

Probably a dumb question but I haven't been paying attention, do we get access to the two need european free agents we just signed?

Prob not eh

Signed for next year not this year.

But Robertson is an option.

 

[Mickey Marner]

We have arguably four forwards better than their best forward, failure is unacceptable. Marner specifically better demonstrate why he's worth 2x Werenski.

 

[zeke]

If it somewhat resembles a traditional playoff type series it should be a pretty good series.
Hopefully the Leafs remember it was Foligno who said they were easy to play against.

Well they're 2-0-1 against Nick since he said it.

 

[xxOCZMSxx]

Is there a better than zero chance we see Nick Robertson sometime this playin/playoff?

 

[zeke]

They should "green screen" the stands and superimpose fans into the TV broadcast, while adding fan noise as you suggest.

There really should be away for them to get real fan noise and video from fans at home into the arena in realtime. Just like with Zoom the loudest fans get the camera time.