Series Talk: Leafs vs Jackets- Series Preview and Discussion - II

[kb]

Goaltending stats - from 2020 onward - until end of season.

Freddy Andersen last 23 game starts .. 11-9-3 record with a .902 save percentage, 2.56 GAA with 1 shutout.
vs
Elvis Merzlikins last 23 game starts .. 13-5-4 record with a .935 save percentage, 1.97 GAA with 5 shutouts.

Weird how goaltending makes such a difference in how teams are viewed defensively.

 

[Golden_Jet]

This seems like a flawed way to look at things. Leafs have had a different system since the coaching change. Why would we also take into account the stats from a different system?

I didn’t say that , I said skip October and November for both teams.
Thanks to Zeke and Mess for posting

 

[Martin Skoula]

Why do you speak in absolutes? What gave you the impression that your opinion is fact?

It's also a few hundred words without a single point.

Keefe is going to look at tape of Columbus in the playoffs last year, as well as look at his own team. Wow, you don't say, Keefe is going to do the absolute bare minimum a coach is supposed to do?

 

[Menzinger]

Weird how goaltending makes such a difference in how teams are viewed defensively.

Yep.

Hot goaltending also seems to line up a lot with Jack Adams nominations and wins

 

[ottomaddox]

Vegas Odds:

Leafs 25-1 odds to win the cup
Columbus 60-1 odds to win the cup
























Boston 11-2 odds to win the cup. End of thread.

 

[Mess]

Weird how goaltending makes such a difference in how teams are viewed defensively.

Regular Season Performance

One of the things that I think makes a Toronto-Columbus matchup so intriguing is that the teams are polar opposites.

The Maple Leafs are a high-flying offensive team with loads of superstar talent up front, and carried one of the league’s more prolific offenses through the regular season. Toronto’s 3.4 goals per game was actually third in the league, trailing only Tampa Bay (3.5) and Washington (3.4). Despite the wondrous offensive production, Toronto is still just an eighth seed – in large part because only five teams gave up more goals per game (3.2). Elite offensive team, shaky defensive team

The Blue Jackets live on the other end of the spectrum. Their 2.6 goals against per game was fourth best in the league – a surprisingly strong performance considering the exodus of talent from Columbus last summer. In many ways, it’s a classic John Tortorella team: incredibly disciplined in the defensive zone, with five-man units that show very capable in pushing opposing forwards well into the perimeter.

Goaltender Overview (Goals Saved Above Average)

The questions about how porous the Maple Leafs defense has been this season has been quite tough to answer, if only because the goaltending has been comparatively abysmal. For every scoring chance where the blueline left a Toronto goalie out to dry, you had another lifeless shot from the point that somehow found its way in the back of the net.

A statistical look at the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Columbus Blue Jackets play-in series - TSN.ca

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yep.

Hot goaltending also seems to line up a lot with Jack Adams nominations and wins

The only reason Tortorella won the Jack Adams in 2017 over Babcock was those 16 straight wins they had, even though at the end of the 2016-17 season it got them 3rd in the Metropolitan Division.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Wait, you're telling me bolding surface level information doesn't count as insightful analysis???

Somehow it's not even the lowest quality posting on here. Pretty sure someone pulled up a decade old Tortorella quote about shutting Kessel down by taking away his space as if it's an example of how he'll shut Matthews and co down.

You know, because nobody but Tortorella has tried to take space away from our stars. They see a guy with 40 goals coming at them and they just get out of his way and let him shoot. Hopefully Keefe manages to figure out this cutting edge strategy.

 

[LeafChief]

Vegas Odds:

Leafs 25-1 odds to win the cup
Columbus 60-1 odds to win the cup
























Boston 11-2 odds to win the cup. End of thread.

Ah crap boys lets head out. heybuddyhowyadoing ended the thread!

 

[Gavy]

Jackets fans are already looking ahead to the first round. They think that because they resemble the Bruins that they're going to run us over

 

[LeafsNation75]

Jackets fans are already looking ahead to the first round. They think that because they resemble the Bruins that they're going to run us over

This is the first thing I thought of after hearing it.

 

[Gallagbi]

Since teams have been told months in advance and know their play-in opponent already we find ourselves in unique territory here.. How do you suppose some coach would go about best preparing their team for what has been confirmed is their opponent?

Toronto would review the CBJ/TB series & the CBJ/Boston series results to prescout the Blue Jackets, their systems, strategies, players , what worked and what didn't etc, while no doubt CBJ would review the Leafs/Boston series from last year to get a preview how their opposition performed and what they did in that series when working on their game plans for this series. You even have a direct overlapping opportunity here to compare both Toronto and CBJ verses Boston.

Columbus like Boston is also a top defensive team with a low goals against and driven by strong goaltending, so comparing how the Leafs players performed would be grounds for game planning, while Toronto much like TB is a high scoring talented offensive team so a coach would also combine what worked last year and incorporate that also into its plan.

That is essentially how coaching works, and since Sheldon Keefe is new and has no past NHL playoff like experience to draw upon, he would rely heavily on what his opponents did this season as well as last year playoff conditions, and also study his own team and their performance against Boston in round #1 and taking from that things that worked successfully and design things for his own game plan in preparation accordingly.

Keefe will incorporate both Mike Babcock's techniques, line combos, that worked successfully last year and then build upon that with his own ideas and strategies to come up with a successful plan on how to both attack and defend against Columbus.

I'm not sure CBJ can just make the best line in hockey appear out of thin air and dominate special teams, which is how the B's won last year.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I'm not sure CBJ can just make the best line in hockey appear out of thin air and dominate special teams, which is how the B's won last year.

Besides Columbus not having a line like Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak, the Bruins won last year because of special teams like when they would always score on the power play.

 

[al secord]

Ah crap boys lets head out. heybuddyhowyadoing ended the thread!

It's a change from the crap he usually starts.

 

[ottomaddox]

The only reason Tortorella won the Jack Adams in 2017 over Babcock was those 16 straight wins they had, even though at the end of the 2016-17 season it got them 3rd in the Metropolitan Division.

The only reason?

 

[Gabriel426]

Columbus is pretty much Bruins lite. If the Leafs cannot beat them easily, with all the extra prep(like all teams), and being healthy....Dubas should break up and retool this summer.

 

[kevsh]

I think the biggest question for the Leafs is if Andersen gets off to his typically very poor "October" start after what essentially will be a full off-season, or does he pick up where he left off in March (playing very well)?

If it's the former, the Leafs may be out of this quickly.

 

[Blowfish]

I know this isn’t completely finalized, and it’s still some time away, but what else are we going to talk about related to hockey? Some other team board’s already started this thread so may as well. I will go over every team of how they stack up with one another, including each line. For the Leafs, I will be looking at the stats from when Keefe was hired for more relevance and accuracy.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Overall Record: 36-25-9 (tied for 12th in PTS%)
After Coaching Change: 27-15-5 (8th in PTS%)
Columbus Blue Jackets
Overall Record: 33-22-15 (tied for 12th PTS%}

Offense
5 on 5

5 on 5	Maple Leafs	Blue Jackets
GF/60	2.83(4th)	2.16(26th)
CF/60	58.74(7th)	54.1(23rd)
SCF/60	30.63(2nd)	24.72(25th)
HCF/60	12.08(6th)	9.06(29th)
xGF/60	2.59(2nd)	2.2(tied for 16th)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not surprises here, Leafs are the superior offensive team by a mile. They score a lot more and generate a lot more. The Jackets that are not known for their offense, is showed well here. The Leafs have the better offensive players but we already knew that, and might not be the aspect that decided the series.

Power Play

PP	Maple Leafs	Blue Jackets
PP%	26.4(2nd)	16.4%(24th)
CF/60	93.23(19th)	83.96(29th)
SCF/60	52.67(10th)	39.5(29th)
HCF/60	17.8(23rd)	14.51(30th)
xGF/60	6.52(17th)	5.63(27th)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Leafs have the better numbers on the PP as you should expect, but they are average at best for a team with offensive stars. Don’t let the ranking fool you, it is a result of a high shooting % In fact, if not for a recent climb, The Leafs numbers were where the Jackets numbers were which are awful in every metric. Jackets have even worse luck offensively on the PP by league rank, and would be helpful if they can improve it a bit. Getting back their injured players will help. I’m interested at what Sheldon Keefe does on the PP. Does he put Rielly on the 1st unit in place of Barrie? If Sandin plays, does he stay on the 2nd PP? It’s unlikely he removes any of the big 4 from the 1st unit, but what does the 2nd unit look like? If Keefe plays Robertson, does he play on that unit? There are lots of questions, but simply put, the PP numbers need to be better than they are. Leafs get the advantage, but it’s not an amazing PP.

Defence
5 on 5

5 on 5 Numbers	Maple Leafs	Blue Jackets
GA/60	2.68(20th)	2.11(5th)
CA/60	55.68(15th)	56.06(17th)
SCA/60	27.5(18th)	24.89(10th)
HDCA/60	11.14(17th)	8.82(2nd)
xGA/60	2.33(tied for 15th)	2.04(3rd)
SV%:	91.29(23rd)	92.81(5th)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I am going to say this again. Leafs aren’t as bad defensively as they are made out to be, and the numbers support this. They are however average at best, and the will face a team who plays solid defence, and takes away the prime scoring chances well. The question is will they be able to slow down a team like the Leafs, who generates offense at a great level. Can the Leafs defence hold against a poor offense, but one that will be mostly healthy? The Jackets also got much better goaltending then the Leafs.
Columbus gets the advantage here by a decent amount

Penalty Killing

PK Numbers	Maple Leafs	Blue Jackets
PK%	80.9(12th)	81.7%(10th)
CA/60	89.25(10th)	84.13(5th)
SCA/60	44.17(6th)	43.06(4th)
HDCA/60	15.63(3rd)	13.82(1st)
xGA/60	5.5(3rd)	5.31(1st)
SV%	85.81(18th)	86.75(13th)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

These are 2 excellent PK teams. They don’t give up many shots or chances. Maple Leafs under Keefe have been a really good PK team, and this may surprise some people. The Jackets are truly elite though, and building off their defence at 5 on 5, they don’t give up much. The question for the Jackets will be can they continue it against a team with offensive stars, even though the Leafs PP numbers aren’t exactly convincing. The question is will Andersen perform, because he is the only reason the Leafs PK% is down.
I will give the Blue Jackets the edge here, but only slightly.
Overall just by looking at the stats, this is a good matchup where whatever one team is good at, and bad at, the other team is the opposite. Leafs are a great offensive team and can score with anyone, but their going to face a solid defensive team. On the other hand, Jackerts can’t do much on offense which might be helped with getting healthy, and the Leafs aren’t bad defensively. The special teams battle should be interesting. Leafs have the more dangerous personnel on the PP by a wide margin, but their underlying numbers aren’t great despite the high SH%, where the Jackets have an elite PK. The Jackets have an atrocious PP going against a good PK as well. The key for Toronto is if the PP catches fire. If it does, I think the Jackets might be in trouble. For Columbus, If they can get some production on the PP, and keep up their structural play and limit chances, that could put the series in their favour. Columbus will get their chances against an inconsistent defensive team, and if they start scoring, Leafs will be in tough.

Line Matchups (Potentially)
Forwards

Line 1	Hyman-Matthews-Marner	Nyquist-PLD-Atkinson
TOI	374.02	103.04
CF%	52.31%	50.48%
SCI%	55.77%	48.08%
HDCI%	55.36%	46.88%
XGF%	56.71%	50.60%
OSZ%	56.50%	62.50%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I think Keefe will put Matthews with Marner to start, but could change things up if he doesn’t like what he sees. This trio has been a solid line since Keefe first put them together, despite Marner really struggling at times this season. They have been a solid possession line, and controlled the play when on the ice. Hyman at times is what makes the line continue to tick even when the other 2 are off. There is some defensive issues usually from lacklustre plays from Marner, but he can turn his season around with a good playoffs. Keefe might go back with Nylander-Matthews as he did in the last game before the stoppage, but we haven’t been seen them consistently with another winger. The player that played with them the most is Johnsson who won’t be available, and followed by Kapanen who looked lost beside them, but Kapanen really transformed himself so maybe he works this time.
For Columbus, the forward lines are mere guesses at this point according to their board, but we might see this line to begin though. They have been okay as a line by the numbers, but at best break even with their competition. They also haven’t played enough minutes together to form a good conclusion though. One logical switch that should made is Bjorkstrand for Atkinson. The line’s TOI is about the same, but with Bjorkstrand, Nyquist-PLD have dominated with their xGF% at near 65%, and the zone starts are almost identical.

Line 2	Nylander-Tavares-Mikhavev	Texier-Wennberg-Bjorkstrand
TOI	10:42	32:27
CF%	69.57%	60.38%
SCF%	69.23%	57.89%
HDCF%	66.67%	80.00%
xGF%	56.25%	60.92%
OSZ%	71.43%	60.00%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The winger beside these two is just a guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Keefe put Mikhavev in a top 6 role, and this line is the only option if the top line stays together. Keefe really loves Mikhavev, so he might put him in the fire even coming off a serious injury. The numbers don’t mean anything with only 11 minutes on the ice together. If not Mikhavev, Keefe also put Kerfoot on the ice, and they played nearly 200 minutes with each other. This was one of the few criticisms people had of Keefe, where he continusly played Kerfoot on the line, despite him being better at centre. The line however was terrific by the numbers, and created a lot but also gave up a lot of goals mostly due to goaltending. It’s not my favourite line but Keefe might go with it again at some point.
This one I have no real idea on what this line will look, especially if Bjorkstrand is put on the top line

Line 3	Engvall-Kerfoot-Kapanen	Foligno-Jenner-Anderson
TOI	76:00	63.48
CF%	61.07%	45.53%
SCF%	59.49%	43.14%
HCDF%	58.82%	42.86%
xGF%	58.37%	44.80%
OSZ%	48.15%	42.31%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This line was amazing when they played, so people didn’t like when they kept getting broken up. They might have won 2 games on their own. The TOI isn’t overly big, but it’s enough to tell us they dominated, even with their zone starts not being overly favourable. This line should be kept if the season resumed, and even experiment with It more if there are warm up games before the play in round.
The big question for the Jackets is will Anderson play. His timeline is apparently mid july, so he probably will I have to guess, but if not, you might see the young Bemstorm play on the 3rd line.

Line 4	Clifford-Gauthier-Spezza	Robinson-Shore-Nash
TOI	26:31	3:37
CF%	40.43%	57.14%
SCF%	35.71%	33.33%
HCDF%	37.50%	0%
xGF%	41.90%	33.18%
OSZ%	25.00%	100%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This line is awful. They weren’t good at all, and clearly put the team in a disadvantage, but it’s only 26 minutes, so maybe this changes. One of the issues with the Leafs was depth scoring, and this line won’t help, so Keefe needs to figure this out. Malgin might get in a game here as well.
I’m not sure what the 4th line will look like, but it might include 2 of these 3. The Jackets have multiple players who can play different positions, so that complicates guessing the lines.

Depth Options for Toronto
Malgin
Korshkov
Brooks
Aberg
Petan
Depth Options for Columbus
Bemstorm
Gerbe
Stenlund
Matteau
Lilja

Defense

Defensive Pair 1	Rielly-Ceci	Werenski-Jones
TOI	145:31	763.36
CF%	46.74%	50.25%
SCF%	46.72%	48.51%
HDCF%	44.44%	49.12%
xGF%	48.72%	51.08%
OSZ%	46.15%	57.89%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I don’t like it, but I think we see the Rielly-Ceci pair again at least to start. I’m not sure Keefe has much of a choice, so hard to blame him. However, the results are in the numbers and the eye test. Rielly can’t defend his blueline, and Ceci just makes strange decisions with and without the puck. I guess you could shelter them more, but the starts aren’t bad right now, and you need to play one of your best defensemen. The decision on who to put Rielly with should be interesting. I don’t see Keefe scratching Ceci with him being used like a top 4 defenseman, while he was here. Keefe could go all offense with Rielly-Barrie again, but even against a poor offensive team, that’s still not a good idea for long stretches.
This is the key for the Jackets and mainly Jones. If he plays as well as he is capable, this could seriously have a big swing in the series. Werenski provides great support to him offensively, but the stabilizer and leader is Jones. The numbers aren’t great analytically, and the pair played sheltered offensive minutes, but this is still the best pair for the Jackets.

Defensive Pair 2	Muzzin-Holl	Gavrikov-Savard
TOI	456.18	751.37
CF%	53.01%	47.53%
SCF%	54.27%	50%
HDCF%	55.56%	48.68%
xGF%	56.56%	50.67%
OSZ%	39.69%	40.84%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The Leafs best D pair, and it’s not even close to being a debate. They excelled in a shutdown role, and were amazing even with tough zone starts. They have great chemistry with one another, and you could ride them in a game. Muzzin is the engine of this defence, and is the glue that prevents it from falling apart. Holl has had a solid season as he has got more duty under Keefe. He struggled a little bit down the stretch, but having Muzzin by his side should help him again. If the Leafs are going to do something defensively and be better than average, it might come down to these two.
Another set in stone pairing. Just like their counterpart, this is the defensive shutdown pairing for the Jackets. While their numbers are well below from the Muzzin-Holl pairing, Torts has decided to lean on them defensively, and they are close to break even as a pairing.

Defensive Pair 3	Dermott-Barrie	Murray-Nutivaara
TOI	259.19	78.52
CF%	50.51%	48.39%
SCF%	50.21%	46.58%
HDCF%	52.08%	50%
xGF%	50.53%	53.06%
OSZ%	61.70%	58.70%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

All that’s left is Dermott and Barrie. They played a lot together, and broke even as a pair under heavily sheltered zone starts. We just don’t want them stuck in the defensive zone on a shift. Barrie has produced and struggled defensively which is not a surprise. Dermott was uneven, but he was really solid as the defacto #1 defenseman down the stretch with the injuries. Dermott might get a chance higher in the line up maybe even beside Rielly, but I still have my doubts if Keefe wants to do that.
Sandin could play a factor here, but he will only come in for Ceci, and I’m not sure if Keefe scratches Ceci. Liljegren is also available along with Rosen if need be. Keefe may go with the 7 defensemen route which he did a little bit during the injuries.
This is likely the pairing with Murray a lock, but could see Kukan in for Nutivvara. Their zone starts are shseltered, but not as much as the 3rd pairing for the Leafs. The Jackets pairing is also overall better by a slight margin.
Depth Options for Toronto
Sandin
Liljegren
Rosen
Depth Options for Columbus
Kukan
Peeke
Harrington

Goalies

Starter	Andersen	Merzlikins
GP ESSV% HDSV%	52 .918% .812%	32 .926% .834%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There is no question Andersen is starting. However he wasn’t very good this season. He only had one good month which was in November, and cost the team a few games this season under both coaches.
It’s still a question who starts but higher chance its Merzlikins. Just by looking at the numbers, it’s the right choice

Backup	Campbell	Korpisalo
GP ESSV% HDSV%	6 .920% .844%	37 .919% .818%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Campbell impressed in the games he played with the Leafs, and if Andersen falters, Keefe may have to make the difficult choice and go with Campbell.
There is still a good chance Korpisalo starts, so hard to say anything definitive right now.

Someone please fix any formatting issues

Both teams will look different on return to play...healthier with players back missing extended time.

Any regular season stats are pretty much misleading and meaningless....

 

[Gary Nylund]

Pretty much my line of thought. Ultimately I think we come out on top, but I doubt it will be a sweep like some suggest.

Well, it could be a sweep, at least the fact that it's a 5 game series increases the probability of that since a 3 game streak is obviously easier to accomplish. But if it is a sweep, there's no guarantee that we come out on top either so there is that as well.

Both teams will look different on return to play...healthier with players back missing extended time.

Any regular season stats are pretty much misleading and meaningless....

Yeah 100% this. I think people are underestimating the variance factor which will be HUGE. It's basically a whole new season making predictions very difficult and past performance less relevant than it usually is. That's my opinion anyway.

And that's a good thing because ultimately the goal is to win the cup. I don't think our chances of doing that are particularly good but I like them a lot better than I did when we stopped playing in the spring.

 

[Rob Brown]

Jackets fans are already looking ahead to the first round. They think that because they resemble the Bruins that they're going to run us over

Which makes zero sense. If they are going to beat us because they are similar to Boston, they should be reminded that two Game 7s in a row is closer to beating Boston than a 4-2 series loss.

They also don't have a Bergeron, Pastrnak, Marchand or Rask. Even Chara is on another level in the playoffs.

 

[Mess]

I'm not sure CBJ can just make the best line in hockey appear out of thin air and dominate special teams, which is how the B's won last year.

Torts held the #1 offense in hockey TB with the leagues MVP coming off a 62 win season and 320 GF to just 8 goals in the entire series.

Kucherov, Stamkos, Point and Johnson combined for 153 regular season goals and managed only 2 goals and 6 points combined in those 4 games combined and only 1 PP goal the entire series.

That similar defensive game plan and PK% system will attempt to replicate that strategy and do that this time to Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and Marner in this series.

If successful I don't think our Leafs will advance into the playoffs, as I can't see Leafs winning without impactful contributions from Leafs 4 gifted offensive players, while holding the entire Leafs team to 2 goals or less a game as even with all the offensive departures this CBJ team still have a top 3 defense via GA and strong top 5 goaltending.

Torts doesn't need a magic trick to make the best line in hockey reappear on his team, as his #1 objective is to make Leafs best offensive players disappear from the series instead just like he did to TB last year.

If the Leafs can muster 3 or more goals a game, then CBJ has NO chance in this series and it will be short and sweet even though Leafs defense and goaltending is unpredictable, because CBJ lacks the offensive fire power to compete offensively. IMO

 

[ACC1224]

Torts held the #1 offense in hockey TB with the leagues MVP coming off a 62 win season and 320 GF to just 8 goals in the entire series.

Kucherov, Stamkos, Point and Johnson combined for 153 regular season goals and managed only 2 goals in those 4 games combined and only 1 PP goal the entire series.

That similar defensive game plan and PK% system will attempt to replicate that strategy and do that this time to Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and Marner in this series.

If successful I don't think our Leafs will advance into the playoffs, as I can't see Leafs winning without impactful contributions from Leafs 4 gifted offensive players, while holding the entire Leafs team to 2 goals or less a game as even with all the offensive departures this CBJ team still have a top 3 defense via GA and strong goaltending.

Torts doesn't need a magic trick to make the best line in hockey appear on his team, as his #1 objective is to make Leafs best offensive players disappear from the series instead just like he did to TB last year.

Really no different than any series ever played where one team is vastly superior offensively than the other.
Leafs will focus on scoring more than Columbus.
Columbus will focus on giving up less than the Leafs.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Jackets fans are already looking ahead to the first round. They think that because they resemble the Bruins that they're going to run us over

Jeez thats, I’m looking forward to us finally winning the cup. Its been a long time, I’m glad it’s finally over

 

[X66]

Lol, Boston doesn't beat Toronto because they're tougher, they beat Toronto because their skill comes through and they out coach us.

 

[ACC1224]

Lol, Boston doesn't beat Toronto because they're tougher, they beat Toronto because their skill comes through and they out coach us.

I thought it was all 3 of those reasons.