GDT: Leafs@Sharks Monday 10:30 PM SNO

[HamiltonNHL]

please tell me that JVR is back tonight.

Babcock said he's out. Medical.

Edit - now he's in.

 

[LeafalCrusader]

 

[ShaneFalco]

please tell me that JVR is back tonight.

Why? They're going to have to get used to life without JVR and allow some others to get some minutes

 

[jrgtml67]

Not saying Kappy is out, we have not had any confirmation via twitter (leafs yet). I am just assuming JVR is still out. Further I think this week tells the tale (lineup). Bozak has had several different players come on his line, and whoever it is that ends up there does not seem to matter. Brown was effective the first 2 games, then that line did the same ol thing (no offensive zone time). Anyway what I mean is, is if this week we do poorly I think a trade happens. Some here may say that is a panic move, but it is getting deep enough now into the season where we cannot get behind, and afford to lose our good start. Even if we split the 4 games, I wonder if something happens.

Who gets traded? For what? Not sure. I was almost positive a goalie was going to go in a package, but we have loaned out Kask to VGK. Not sure how the loaner rule works (if we made a trade involving a goalie could we just take Kask back)?. Then the other question is, do we move Bozak, JVR or a couple of our blue chip AHL wingers in favor of a defensemen? With the way Bozak has started, and being that his contract is up we could move him, but then it would be for a center. Our center depth is really bad, the only guy I can think of that could move up is Miro, but thinking of a lineup with him at the moment does not seem like a fix, it feels more like a backward step. Then there is the JVR question. That trade even if you add pieces not sure what we could get (the big problem is he is ufa at the end of the season). We are kind of painted in a corner here. At some point you have to trade some assets (in our case wingers who can score AHL/NHL) to strengthen where we are weak (defense). If we wait too long their value drops, and/or it is too late to fix the season.

Perhaps this is what Babcock warned us about. He did say when asked if the "pain" was officially over that he thought we got a bit lucky last year with health and also a lot of players had career years and we barely made it. I took from that, that he thinks they still needed (need) a lot of work and learning. So far this year that is crystal clear. Marner has not looked liked himself (minus a couple games) Bozak and JVR look like AHL players (minus Bozak and his faceoff prowess). For me the best surprise thus far is Kadri. Most nights he looks like one of our best players outside of Matthews. Marleau needs to get it going offensively as well, and that is one of the problems right now, many have not even said a thing a bout him I remember the big stink many here made about his contract, for his age etc. But during this low time I have read little about him. He has not played well at all offensively. Is that because he was on the wrong line? Hard to say because Bozak has been so bad. Komarov as well, he is checking like himself, but losing pretty much every offensive and defensive zone battle for the puck (unless he is on the PK). I am not saying Marleau was a mistake to get, I think he brings great leadership, and he still has game, but we have not found out how to use him right.

Good example is our PP. The last 3 games it has looked horrible. No movement (too slow), shots not getting through, teams anticipating that cross crease/seam pass to Willie, or Mitch to Bozak or JVR. The issue is movement, some how Kucherov and Stamkos can do it at will, and teams know it is coming, but their puck movement is so good it opens the lane, ours has been too slow so teams are back in position to take that option away. A problem for us too is no threat of a big bomb shot at the point, but you can still make the other team respect a point shot (even if it is not Weber 100mph blast). Establish the point shot early in the game (PP) even if you do not score on the shot, if the shot is getting through then the other team has to come out and respect the shot, once you do that the seam is wide open, tic tac pass and in it goes. I have watch Pittsburgh do it with Kessel/Malkin/Crosby, Stammer/Kucherov, and less often of late but Backstrom/Kuz/Ovi.

Anyway this week has me cringing already. This road trip usually happens in Dec, Jan and is integral in our pursuit of the post season. This year it is early, but we face some big time teams. The other quick note is, they keep saying the ACC ice has been bad, yet other teams seem to not really have a problem. Not saying it hasnt because I have seen how the puck is bouncing and rolling, it is just odd being the home team we should have an advantage but well....not as of yet. That is the only positive this week. A road trip is what we need right now. Less pressure, the guys can just think about playing, and playing right, not worrying about impressing our critical fan base. I really hope we kick it into high gear here.

GLG

 

[Tak7]

If no JvR means more Leivo, I'm ok with it.

I liked Leivo's game on Saturday. One of only a few Leafs that stood out.

 

[ShaneFalco]

5 Things I Think I’d Do

First 3 anyway
1. I think I would look at changing up the defense pairings. They’ve played 11 games so far – an eighth of the season – so there’s been enough time to get a good look at these pairs. They are still allowing quite a few fundamental breakdowns and are struggling to break out cleanly. I would pair up Gardiner – Rielly / Hainsey – Zaitsev and see what happens. We’ve seen Gardiner and Rielly play well together before. Hainsey and Zaitsev play at the same pace, so maybe they can work together as a pairing.

2. With Babcock looking to jumpstart the Bozak line, I think I would consider putting Zach Hyman there. And that’s not a knock on Hyman by removing him from the Matthews line — he’s been good there this season. His effort, energy and defensive prowess can give a jolt to Bozak and his unit. At the very least, it will protect them defensively. For me, that would mean putting Marleau on the top line, keeping the Komarov – Kadri – Brown line together, and slotting Marner with Hyman and Bozak. I would also consider trying Leivo next to Matthews and Nylander, putting Marleau with Kadri and Brown, and moving Komarov down.

3. I think it’s very clear that Leivo should be a regular in the rotation. I don’t know the exact answer as to how it should work, but the team is struggling defensively and the effort is not always there, which Babcock has acknowledged a few times now. Regularly sitting in the press box is a very capable and hungry player. Start rotating forwards in and out. He shouldn’t be sitting for 10/11 games.

 

[Mugzy97]

First 3 anyway
1. I think I would look at changing up the defense pairings. They’ve played 11 games so far – an eighth of the season – so there’s been enough time to get a good look at these pairs. They are still allowing quite a few fundamental breakdowns and are struggling to break out cleanly. I would pair up Gardiner – Rielly / Hainsey – Zaitsev and see what happens. We’ve seen Gardiner and Rielly play well together before. Hainsey and Zaitsev play at the same pace, so maybe they can work together as a pairing.

IMO Rielly is really starting to turn a corner so far this season and I wouldn't be jumping at the idea of sticking him on the right side at this point, unless you assumed Gardiner would play the right side.

 

[PuckMagi]

Babcock said he's out. Medical.

Oh darn.

 

[Not My Tempo]

Lol so much for every player on the team having to earn their spot

 

[inthe6ix]

So that was at 10:30am, Martin and JVR in - Kap and Josh out?

Damn, Leivo screwed again.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Lol so much for every player on the team having to earn their spot

those are just words. Babcock doesn't actually follow through on it.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Not sure why anyone is surprised. It's incredibly annoying but it was obvious what was going to happen. Babcock locked himself into putting both JVR and Martin back before Saturday's game even happened, Komarov out would have meant only 3 regular PKers, so unless they were taking Bozak or Marner out, Leivo wasn't getting in as dumb as it is.

 

[Morgs]

I need to see Kadri and Leivo together soon.

 

[ToneDog]

I need to see Kadri and Leivo together soon.

Me too. That would mean Leo moves down to the 4th line.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Babcockian Meritocracy does it again. So frustrating to watch Leivo continue to earn not just a spot, but a prominent role, and continue to ride the pines. Only hope that he's still here next year when there's lineup spots created by the front office rather than Babcock

 

[weems]

A trade needs to happen soon.

Leivo needs to play.

 

[ShaneFalco]

And Leivo has a great game and gets relegated to the press-box
#earnyourspot

 

[Walshy7]

oh man the terrible 3 (defensively) are together again tonight we are in for a long one with SJ having last change feeding off those 3 in the d zone

 

[ShaneFalco]

Meanwhile JVR and Bozak together again, despite the line being a train wreck and Babcock indicating something has to change
ffs

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Gotta love him yearning to have more of his regulars be difference makers like Leivo only to keep playing them over him

 

[jrgtml67]

You cannot take a regulars job on one game. That being said I would not mind trading JVR or Bozak, and then Leivo gets in every night. I think this week if it goes south we see a trade.

 

[Walshy7]

A trade needs to happen soon.

Leivo needs to play.

it has to, Leivo has done nothing wrong in his 26 games under babcock now. Maybe that trade is leivo but something has to give. He has been solid both ends of the ice in all the games he has played under babs its beginning to look like babcock just doesn't like the kid as a human

 

[weems]

I really hope all this lineup stuff is just because they want to keep JVR and Bozak's value strong for a trade.

 

[zeke]

Legend:

Letter Grades = Quality of Competition measured by opponents' time on ice, Converted into Letter Grades for simplicity
p60 = points per 60 minutes
xGF% = Expected Goals For Percentage (i.e. shot attempt percentage adjusted for shot quality) - this stat is already adjusted for zone deployment and game score
rel = xgf% relative to team - also already adjusted for zone and score
dsv% = difference between save percentage and expected save percentage



Line 1

Matthews (20): 11gms, ES 15:28 (A+), 4.19p60, 63.6xgf% (+14.1rel) / PP 2:42, 6.04p60 / SH 0:02
Thornton (38): 10gms, ES 13:47 (A-), 1.68p60, 48.3xgf% (-8.9rel) / PP 3:53, 6.50p60 / SH 0:02

Nylander (21): 11gms, ES 14:57 (A+), 1.94p60, 61.7xgf% (+11.2rel) / PP 2:40, 6.11p60 / SH 0:00
Pavelski (33): 10gms, ES 14:16 (A-), 1.78p60, 48.1xgf% (-9.4rel) / PP 3:46, 1.68p60 / SH 0:01

Hyman (25): 11gms, ES 13:59 (A+), 2.09p60, 63.6xgf% (+13.5rel) / PP 0:17, 0.00p60 / SH 2:46
Labanc (22): 10gms, ES 12:36 (B+), 1.56p60, 50.6xgf% (-5.8rel) / PP 2:30, 7.16p60 / SH 0:01

Line 2

Kadri (27): 11gms, ES 13:49 (A+), 2.94p60, 51.3xgf% (-5.1rel) / PP 2:34, 6.51p60 / SH 0:00
Couture (28): 10gms, ES 11:53 (A-), 2.12p60, 60.1xgf% (+6.7rel) / PP 3:34, 7.12p60 / SH 2:10

Marleau (38): 11gms, ES 13:50 (A-), 2.09p60, 51.2xgf% (-5.2rel) / PP 2:36, 4.29p60 / SH 0:40
Hertl (24): 10gms, ES 12:02 (B+), 1.76p60, 63.1xgf% (+11.0rel) / PP 3:02, 4.22p60 / SH 2:19

Komarov (31): 11gms, ES 12:07 (A+), 0.00p60, 49.9xgf% (-7,1rel) / PP 0:46, 15.23p60 / SH 2:29
Karlsson (27): 10gms, ES 10:22 (B-), 1.76p60, 48.7xgf% (-8.0rel) / PP 0:08, 0.00p60 / SH 2:09

Line 3

Bozak (31): 11gms, ES 11:51 (C-), 0.97p60, 45.4xgf% (-12.3rel) / PP 2:37, 8.33p60 / SH 0:01
Tierney (23): 10gms, ES 11:47 (C), 1.96p60, 54.5xgf% (-0.6rel) / PP 0:05, 0.00p60 / SH 2:08

VanRyk (28): 10gms, ES 11:36 (C), 2.17p60, 52.1xgf% (-3.2rel) / PP 2:42, 11.08p60 / SH 0:00
Boedker (28): 10gms, ES 11:14 (B-), 3.11p60, 58.3xgf% (+4.5rel) / PP 2:49, 4.31p60 / SH 0:03

Marner (20): 11gms, ES 12:07 (D), 0.95p60, 55.6xgf% (+0.6rel) / PP 2:41, 6.10p60 / SH 0:11
Donskoi (25): 10gms, ES 10:19 (C+), 1.86p60, 70.7xgf% (+22.1rel) / PP 1:32, 0.00p60 / SH 0:02

Line 4

Moore (37): 7gms, ES 9:08 (F), 2.87p60, 51.9gf% (-4.1rel) / PP 0:08, 0.00p60 / SH 1:37
Carpenter (26): 8gms, ES 9:19 (D+), 1.41p60, 52.7xgf% (-6.2rel) / PP 0:02, 0.00p60 / SH 2:44

Brown (23): 11gms, ES 10:46 (B-), 3.23p60, 45.3xgf% (-11.9rel) / PP 1:46, 0.00p60 / SH 2:32
Meier (21): 9gms, ES 10:49 (C), 1.02p60, 59.1xgf% (+3.0rel) / PP 0:17, 0.00p60 / SH 1:03

Martin (28): 10gms, ES 7:49 (F), 2.44p60, 45.6xgf% (-10.8rel) / PP 0:02, 0.00p60 / SH 0:00
Ward (37): 5gms, ES 9:18 (D+), 1.56p60, 28.1xgf% (-26.9rel) / PP 1:09, 0.00p60 / SH 1:33




Pair 1

Gardiner (27): 11gms, ES 18:42 (A), 0.92p60, 53.2xgf% (-3.0rel) / PP 2:53, 3.78p60 / SH 0:31
Burns (32): 10gms, ES 18:21 (B-), 0.34p60, 49.6xgf% (-8.8rel) / PP 4:09, 4.59p60 / SH 2:32

Zaitsev (26): 11gms, ES 18:22 (A), 1.59p60, 56.3xgf% (+1.8rel) / PP 0:18, 0.00p60 / SH 4:01
Ryan (24): 8gms, ES 16:14 (C+), 0.00p60, 52.8xgf% (-7.8rel) / PP 0:44, 0.00p60 / SH 0:33

Pair 2

Rielly (23): 11gms, ES 17:08 (A+), 1.37p60, 54.0xgf%, (-1.9rel) / PP 2:33, 8.74p60 / SH 1:15
Vlasic (30): 10gms, ES 15:42 (A), 0.39p60, 54.9xgf%, (-0.1rel) / PP 2:30, 2.40p60 / SH 4:32

Hainsey (36): 11gms, ES 16:29 (A+), 2.12p60, 55.9xgf% (+1.5rel) / PP 0:09, 0.00p60 / SH 4:37
Braun (30): 10gms, ES 15:43 (A), 1.55p60, 52.0xgf% (-4.6rel) / PP 0:06, 0.00p60 / SH 4:21

Pair 3

Polak (31): 3gms, ES 13:49 (D-), 1.45p60, 58.9xgf% (+6.0rel) / PP 0:00, 0.00p60 / SH 0:20
Dillon (27): 10gms, ES 13:45 (C), 1.34p60, 59.3xgf% (+6.7rel) / PP 0:04, 0.00p60 / SH 2:47

Borgman (22): 9gms, ES 14:12 (F), 0.49p60, 55.0xgf% (+3.0rel) / PP 0:02, 0.00p60 / SH 0:42
Heed (26): 8gms, ES 12:54 (D+), 1.21p60, 68.0xgf% (+14.1rel) / PP 3:17, 4.87p60 / SH 0:19



Starter

Andersen (28): 9gms, 89.3sv%, -0.9dsv% / ES 88.8sv%, -1.9dsv% / PK 90.2sv%, +1.9dsv%
Jones (27): 8gms, 91.3sv%, +0.0dsv% / ES 90.3sv%, -1.8dsv% / PK 94.6sv%, +6.2dsv%

Backup

McElhinney (34): 1gms, 90.9sv%, -0.6dsv% / ES 90.6es%, -1.2dsv% / PK 100.0sv%, +18.0dsv%
Dell (28): 2gms, 96.2sv%, +6.8dsv% / ES 95.5sv%, +5.5dsv% / PK 100.0sv%, +14.7dsv%

 

[weems]

it has to, Leivo has done nothing wrong in his 26 games under babcock now. Maybe that trade is leivo but something has to give. He has been solid both ends of the ice in all the games he has played under babs its beginning to look like babcock just doesn't like the kid as a human

It also sucks because we're basically killing a good young players NHL development at the expense of two lazy UFA's who wont be with this team after this season.