Leafs Rebuild- How Long Will It Take?

[HoweHullOrr]

That's what Oilers fans said in 2010, and 2011, and 2012, and 2013... You're dreaming if you think 20/21/22 year olds with a couple years in the NHL is going to make your team into a playoff contender. Those players need to be surrounded with a sound compliment of core players.

You're also in for a load of disappointment if you think development happens in a straight line.

kings made the playoffs in doughty's 2nd season, so you aren't logical.

The oilers are the outlier for most rebuilds.

Interesting that Doughty's draft year defines the beginning of the rebuild. It could't have had anything to do Quick & Kopitar being drafted in 2005? And, the Kings won the Cup in 2012?

Some people say we started the rebuild when we got Morgan Rielly in the 2012 draft. Looks like we won't make it in 2 years like the Kings did then & have already failed.

Then again, we jump around a lot in here when it comes to defining when the rebuild started.

I get so confused with this.

Maybe having the start date of the rebuild as a user-definable parameter is convenient though.

 

[Mad Brills*]

Interesting that Doughty's draft year defines the beginning of the rebuild. It could't have had anything to do Quick & Kopitar being drafted in 2005? And, the Kings won the Cup in 2012?

Some people say we started the rebuild when we got Morgan Rielly in the 2012 draft. Looks like we won't make it in 2 years like the Kings did then & have already failed.

Then again, we jump around a lot in there when it comes to defining when the rebuild started.

I get so confused with this.

Maybe having the start date of the rebuild as a user-definable parameter is convenient though.

it did not start when rielly got drafted.

Dave nonis sure as **** didn't want to do a rebuild.

It started when shanny came in.

So this is season 3.

Again though, this team needs to show progress within the next 2 years.

Islanders made the playoffs in year 4 after drafting Tavares. Shouldn't take that long to be a playoff team.

 

[Joey Hoser]

it did not start when rielly got drafted.

Dave nonis sure as **** didn't want to do a rebuild.

It started when shanny came in.

So this is season 3.

Again though, this team needs to show progress within the next 2 years.

Islanders made the playoffs in year 4 after drafting Tavares. Shouldn't take that long to be a playoff team.

Well year one of Shanny was an evaluation process and the actual rebuilding didn't really occur until the next summer.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

1. it did not start when rielly got drafted.

2. Islanders made the playoffs in year 4 after drafting Tavares. Shouldn't take that long to be a playoff team.

1. Okey dokey. You can argue with others in here who talk about this. We can't have it both ways though. And I'm sure that Kopitar and Conn Smythe winner, Quick were not needed for the Kings Cup in 2012.

2. Playoff team? Is that the goal now? Pretty low hurdle. What happened to the objective of being a "contender"?

So, if its year 3 now, and it will take another 2 years to make the playoffs, then that sounds like you are inadvertently admitting it could take 5 - 7 years to become a contender.

 

[Mad Brills*]

1. Okey dokey. You can argue with others in here who talk about this. We can't have it both ways though. And I'm sure that Kopitar and Conn Smythe winner, Quick were not needed for the Kings Cup in 2012.

2. Playoff team? Is that the goal now? Pretty low hurdle. What happened to the objective of being a "contender"?

So, if its year 3 now, and it will take another 2 years to make the playoffs, then that sounds like you are inadvertently admitting it could take 5 - 7 years to become a contender.

Do not tell me dave nonis wanted a rebuild. That's a lie.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

it did not start when rielly got drafted.

Dave nonis sure as **** didn't want to do a rebuild.

It started when shanny came in.

So this is season 3.

Again though, this team needs to show progress within the next 2 years.

Islanders made the playoffs in year 4 after drafting Tavares. Shouldn't take that long to be a playoff team.

Well year one of Shanny was an evaluation process and the actual rebuilding didn't really occur until the next summer.

That's another definition. The timeline, and when the process started seem to be "user-definable".

Maybe it would be simpler and clearer if we talk about being a contender, and then have a decent, more stringent definition of a "contender"? Otherwise, I think its tantamount to having meaningless discussions.

To me, a contender makes it the Conference final at least twice in a narrow timeframe/window (3 - 5 years), and must make it to at least (at the bare minimum) to the 7th game of the Conference final each time.

I would also add an additional qualifier to the Game 7 requirement in that the game 7 was not a blow out and that the contest was not decided until the 3rd period.

The point here is that if you are in a weak Conference, and your team got blown out in the Conference final, I don't think that lends much credibility to the argument that you were a "contender".

 

[Mad Brills*]

That's another definition. The timeline, and when the process started seem to be "user-definable".

Maybe it would be simpler and clearer if we talk about being a contender, and then have a decent, more stringent definition of a "contender"? Otherwise, I think its tantamount to having meaningless discussions.

To me, a contender makes it the Conference final at least twice in a narrow timeframe/window (3 - 5 years), and must make it to at least (at the bare minimum) to the 7th game of the Conference final each time.

I would also add an additional qualifier to the Game 7 requirement in that the game 7 was not a blow out and that the contest was not decided until the 3rd period.

The point here is that if you are in a weak Conference, and your team got blown out in the Conference final, I don't think that lends much credibility to the argument that you were a "contender".

 

[HoweHullOrr]

1. Okey dokey. You can argue with others in here who talk about this. We can't have it both ways though. And I'm sure that Kopitar and Conn Smythe winner, Quick were not needed for the Kings Cup in 2012.

2. Playoff team? Is that the goal now? Pretty low hurdle. What happened to the objective of being a "contender"?

So, if its year 3 now, and it will take another 2 years to make the playoffs, then that sounds like you are inadvertently admitting it could take 5 - 7 years to become a contender.

Do not tell me dave nonis wanted a rebuild. That's a lie.

See post #106 for my thinking. If you don't have a good definition of your criteria, all it leads to is meaningless discussions. We are all over the place when it comes to this topic.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

LOL - face palm all you want. I'd have to guess that the definition was too tough for you, and that setting the bar so low to enable meaningless discussion is better ....... ?

Let's just say that just making the playoffs is not a real tough criteria or level of achievement for some. Even Nonis/Burke's team made the playoffs.

 

[Mad Brills*]

I'd have to guess that the definition was too tough for you, and that setting the bar so low to enable meaningless discussion is better ....... ?

Let's just say that making the playoffs is not a real tough criteria or level of achievement for some. Even Burke's team made the playoffs.

in a 48 game season.

and that setting the bar so low to enable meaningless discussion is better ....... ?

I'm done with this thread.

It's a nice day outside.

 

[ULF_55]

Considering Burke started this rebuild in 2008 after Fletcher helped clear the deck for him after they fired the GM who wanted to rebuild ... we are in year 8 of the accelerated rebuild.

Still some assets in use from Burke's reign.

Can't just reset the date to make it look better than it is. The fact the rebuild has had a couple architects doesn't reset the start date anymore than firing an architect in the middle of a build changes the start date of the project.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/magazine/sportsnet-magazine-leafs-rebuild-burke/

But lost in hyperbole and hand-wringing is the fact Burke, Nonis and the rest of a beefed-up Toronto front office serve as a microcosm for the franchise as a whole, an organization that’s finally focused on accruing the assets required for sustainable, ground-up success, as opposed to searching for quick fixes.

...
At that point, a much smaller hockey operations department was being helmed by John Ferguson Jr., who some would argue was never given the green light from ownership to put his scouting background fully to use and build the Leafs from the ground up.

JFj - red light on rebuild
Burke - green light on rebuild

A fluke playoffs visit during an abbreviated season misled fans.

A masterful use of an unprepared goaltender to complete a tank season by Babcock was just another means to acquire another top 5 pick, like Rielly and Marner. A lottery win was just the icing on the fallen cake.

 

[Mad Brills*]

Considering Burke started this rebuild in 2008 after Fletcher helped clear the deck for him after they fired the GM who wanted to rebuild ... we are in year 8 of the accelerated rebuild.

Still some assets in use from Burke's reign.

Can't just reset the date to make it look better than it is. The fact the rebuild has had a couple architects doesn't reset the start date anymore than firing an architect in the middle of a build changes the start date of the project.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/magazine/sportsnet-magazine-leafs-rebuild-burke/



JFj - red light on rebuild
Burke - green light on rebuild

A fluke playoffs visit during an abbreviated season misled fans.

A masterful use of an unprepared goaltender to complete a tank season by Babcock was just another means to acquire another top 5 pick, like Rielly and Marner. A lottery win was just the icing on the fallen cake.

Disagree, because nonis through his moves was clear that he wanted playoffs.

Shanahan was hired to fix the mess.

 

[ULF_55]

Disagree, because nonis through his moves was clear that he wanted playoffs.

Shanahan was hired to fix the mess.

They all want playoffs, have to make the playoffs to win the Cup and the goal is to win the Cup.

How you get there is the difference.

And Nonis was just an extension of Burke.

 

[Mad Brills*]

They all want playoffs, have to make the playoffs to win the Cup and the goal is to win the Cup.

How you get there is the difference.

And Nonis was just an extension of Burke.

that's true.

I'd say 2008-2014 was that era.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Does it really matter when the Leafs rebuild started? Every team's situation is different - where they acquired their core pieces. At this point the Leafs have a lot of their desired core pieces in place. Really all that is left would be another high end d-man and maybe another high calibre scoring winger (depending on how you feel about JVR being that guy). You'd think that the Leafs will have acquired these pieces within the next couple of seasons.

Most of the 'rebuild' now is on the kids developing now and reaching their potential. There's no doubt if Marner, Matthews, Nylander reach their potential the Leafs have their core forwards in place. Add in Rielly's continued development as a key defender on the blue line.

The Leafs could see an Islanders/Flames-esque type curve. Those two teams made the playoffs one year and then fell flat the following year. The Isles are still trending up, however, and it still remains to be seen with the Flames. But for the Leafs - a playoff birth in 3 years isn't unrealistic, however, that doesn't mean they'll be a playoff team every year after that.

 

[Snip Genos]

I'm hoping this next season tells us how close we are. I can't wait to see what Matthews can do in his rookie year he will have lots of opportunity to play nice minutes with skilled wingers. Our forward lineup looks pretty potent if a few of the rookies do good I like how we could see 3 or 4 equally good lines I think the extra bit of talent we get will make Babcocks systems look even better especially for the transition game. All we need to do is keep finding pieces we need to build a core that will win for a long time.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Considering Burke started this rebuild in 2008 after Fletcher helped clear the deck for him after they fired the GM who wanted to rebuild ... we are in year 8 of the accelerated rebuild.

Still some assets in use from Burke's reign.

Can't just reset the date to make it look better than it is. The fact the rebuild has had a couple architects doesn't reset the start date anymore than firing an architect in the middle of a build changes the start date of the project.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/magazine/sportsnet-magazine-leafs-rebuild-burke/



JFj - red light on rebuild
Burke - green light on rebuild

A fluke playoffs visit during an abbreviated season misled fans.

A masterful use of an unprepared goaltender to complete a tank season by Babcock was just another means to acquire another top 5 pick, like Rielly and Marner. A lottery win was just the icing on the fallen cake.

Disagree, because nonis through his moves was clear that he wanted playoffs.

Shanahan was hired to fix the mess.

Not trying to make this personal as its more of general board phenomena for me.

But, tough to have any kind of what I'd call "meaningful" discussion when there is no standard definition of terms and timelines e.g., the start of the rebuild. Mea culpa if I take a more quantifiable (and qualitative) approach to this, and perhaps its because of the environment (engineering) that I am used to.

I agree with ULF. It certainly has the appearance that we play around with the dates to suit an dialogue or argument.

In most environments, to have something meaningful, you have to define the start date and objectives/goals with some precision, and then measure performance against those stated and defined goals. Certainly that would be true in engineering, science and medicine, but I'd think that holds true in sports as well.

There's a few other observations that IMHO are worth noting. If playoffs are set as a performance metric to measure against, its a pretty low standard. The majority of the teams (16 of 30) make the playoffs. And to make the playoffs one year, and then miss the next one or two is also IMHO not much of an accomplishment.

For me, making the playoff is an early stage "milestone" versus the "objective/goal". Each to his own I suppose, but I'm hoping we set much higher objectives than a paltry playoff appearance.

The other thing is that for some strange reason a reasonable sized contingent (it seems) are still hoping or convinced that we can fast track this whole deal. A manifestation of this is when you hear proclamations that "the tank is over". It seems like they want to push us towards the same plan that has failed miserably so many times. So, I have no idea that why it becomes so bothersome when the topic of 5, 7, or 8 year rebuilds comes up. No wonder people play around with the start date so much when this is your concern. And, enter stage right the whole Stamkos debate.

I'd guess Shanny had a very real, pragmatic and real-world reason for stating that there would be pain and for fans to be patient.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Does it really matter when the Leafs rebuild started?

Hard to measure progress towards an objective when you don't. Most businesses do define such things and then measure against stated objectives/goals. See paragraph #4 of post #117 for more details.

I do agree though that if you allow a bit of tracing backwards in time, the start of the first couple of key pieces of your core is probably the best way to measure this. To me, the minimal number of players that form a core would be five: two defenders, two forwards (one of which is a center) and a goalie. All five of those pieces have to be elite which I (personally) define as top 10 - 15% percentile in the league. I think you can hold the goalie to a slightly lesser standard if the overall composition and team-defense is elite level.

 

[Ropesman]

I think there is a huge difference in a rebuild and re-tool. When a team is in a rebuilding phase I see that as the team that does not have a core and they are trying to assemble their core pieces they plan to eventually contend with. When it comes to a re-tool I see that as a team with the majority of the core they want to have in tact and needing a few more added components to become competitive.

I don't think any team that misses the playoffs are in a rebuilding stage. Yes any team that ultimately doesn't make the dance needs to change their roster in some way to get over the hump, but I don't see all of them as rebuilding teams.

 

[Mess]

If this current management team and players never win a Stanley Cup will this current rebuild phase ever be considered finished or successful?

 

[Joey Hoser]

Considering Burke started this rebuild in 2008 after Fletcher helped clear the deck for him after they fired the GM who wanted to rebuild ... we are in year 8 of the accelerated rebuild.

Still some assets in use from Burke's reign.

Can't just reset the date to make it look better than it is. The fact the rebuild has had a couple architects doesn't reset the start date anymore than firing an architect in the middle of a build changes the start date of the project.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/magazine/sportsnet-magazine-leafs-rebuild-burke/



JFj - red light on rebuild
Burke - green light on rebuild

A fluke playoffs visit during an abbreviated season misled fans.

A masterful use of an unprepared goaltender to complete a tank season by Babcock was just another means to acquire another top 5 pick, like Rielly and Marner. A lottery win was just the icing on the fallen cake.

I don't really see Burke's tenure as the beginning of any rebuild. I mean it should have been, but he came in and told us we didn't need one, and he was going to turn the thing right around. All he really did was make sideways moves for more goonish players and trade futures. Everything that resembled rebuilding(like drafting Rielly) occurred because of unintended failures, not by design.

But it's all kinda semantic at this point. Is it still rebuilding if it isn't intentional, or is that just sucking?

 

[Ropesman]

If this current management team and players never win a Stanley Cup will this current rebuild phase ever be considered finished or successful?

I would say yes, if they can get a core together that competes and makes the playoffs I would say the "rebuild" is over. I look at a rebuild as rebuilding your core, doesn't mean I think that is the end goal. Once you get your core together then it requires those crucial UFAs and trades to get you over the top and eventally win you a cup.

Just my opinion though and how I look at what a full rebuild is.

 

[Mess]

I would say yes, if they can get a core together that competes and makes the playoffs I would say the "rebuild" is over. I look at a rebuild as rebuilding your core, doesn't mean I think that is the end goal. Once you get your core together then it requires those crucial UFAs and trades to get you over the top and eventally win you a cup.

Just my opinion though and how I look at what a full rebuild is.

Sports is a results oriented business and as such you measure progress and success on the team results, not on the accumulation of individual players.

Building a core regardless or age or method is still a rebuild process and not until it wins, is when you know if it worked or the rebuild is completed when you hoist the Stanley Cup.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Sports is a results oriented business and as such you measure progress and success on the team results, not on the accumulation of individual players.

Building a core regardless or age or method is still a rebuild process and not until it wins, is when you know if it worked or the rebuild is completed when you hoist the Stanley Cup.

Well that makes the phrase kinda useless since every team that doesn't win the cup is rebuilding. Or at least every team except Chicago, LA and Pittsburg?

 

[Ropesman]

Sports is a results oriented business and as such you measure progress and success on the team results, not on the accumulation of individual players.

Building a core regardless or age or method is still a rebuild process and not until it wins, is when you know if it worked or the rebuild is completed when you hoist the Stanley Cup.

I see your path of thinking and don't disagree on the fact that nobody cares until you hoist the cup. I don't agree In saying that basically every year 29 teams are rebuilding.

To lump the leafs and let's say Tampa bay into the same category makes no sense to me. They are both at totally different points. One is rebuilding the core and trying to compete, the other is a contender and potentially a few bounces or one player away from a cup.

To say the San Jose Sharks who just went to the cup final are essentially rebuilding doesn't make sense to me.

Yes the are all requiring some some sort of work but not a full rebuild. Rebuilding something by definition is to tear it down and start over. Tampa, San Jose, Chicago, teams of this level do not need to be rebuilt in order to get to their end goal.