Leafs or Habs who is the current favorite to win the North

[The Winter Soldier]

Don't sleep on the Jets. I think the Jets are sneaky here. Habs and Leafs are getting much of the attention. But Jets are just quiety stalking here. If Chevy can shore up the D, the Jets are deep at the fwd position particularly at Center where they can ice Scheifele, Dubois, Statsny and Lowry. This is the deepest Center group in the North. They also have the Vezina winner. They may be the team to watch, even with Maurice coaching.

 

[Lshap]

The Leafs are struggling offensively 5v5. They have been a strong ES team in the past but as of now they are at 1.7 ES G/GP compared to 2.29 ES G/GP the 4 years prior which is 1st in the league during that timeframe.

Add to that the fact that Montreal has one of the highest PDOs in the league there is some room for regression while Toronto is more or less even.

Montreal has a lower xGF and higher xGA than Toronto despite being higher in real GF and lower in real GA so they are getting a bit of puck luck right now as well.

When you look at their records against current playoff teams Montreal is 1-1-1 while Toronto is 4-0. As the schedule normalizes a little bit you may see some regression as they start getting away from playing Vancouver (4-0-1) and Edmonton (2-0)

As of now the stats, which admittedly dont tell the whole story, show 1 team that is getting results better than their quality of play while the other is getting results below or at their quality of play.

A bit late getting back to you...

Yes, some current stats will equalize. Montreal will regress, naturally, although nothing suggests they'll regress beneath other teams. Toronto's PDO is also high and may also regress a bit. Another indicator of success is possession %, in which Montreal is among the top, while Toronto is good/average. As for playoff matchups, Montreal's 1-1-1 record is against last year's playoff teams. The Habs are 2-0-1 against this year's playoff teams, Toronto is 4-2-0.

So we're back to the same issue: We either use current data based on small samples, or we use larger samples based on outdated data. There's no valid database that's recent enough or full enough to tell us anything about what these teams will do. Especially when it comes to a wildcard like Montreal that probably had more substantial changes than any team.

 

[CanadiensforLife]

We are playing the same teams in the regular season as we are playoffs.

So by your logic we steamroll the competition but lose to one of those same teams?

The playoffs are a different beast and Leafs are not a sandpaper team.

 

[Cor]

Leafs are the favourites.

Whether one thinks the Habs will end up winning it or not, is a different question.

 

[The Assclown]

Leafs on pace for a normal season point total of 123 points.

Best team in Leaf franchise history managed a measly 105 points.

Cinderella Leafs often start hot. Then midnight strikes, reality returns and they're back to the usual mediocrity.

Let's not let facts talk or anything.

20-21=7-2-1
19-20= 5-5
18-19= 7-3
17-18= 7-3
16-17= 3-7
15-16= 1-9
14-15= 5-5

Now do Montreal!

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Let's not let facts talk or anything.

20-21=7-2-1
19-20= 5-5
18-19= 7-3
17-18= 7-3
16-17= 3-7
15-16= 1-9
14-15= 5-5

Now do Montreal!

O.K.

Habs...

2015-110 points-division leader-Presidents Trophy runner-up
2016-mediocre
2017-103 points-division leader
2018-mediocre
2019-mediocre
2020-mediocre

So...in your six-year stretch the Habs actually peaked higher than Toronto...and won two divisional challenges. While they were mediocre otherwise, they still outperformed the Leafs six-year effort of accomplishing nothing.

 

[The Assclown]

O.K.

Habs...

2015-110 points-division leader-Presidents Trophy runner-up
2016-mediocre
2017-103 points-division leader
2018-mediocre
2019-mediocre
2020-mediocre

So...in your six-year stretch the Habs actually peaked higher than Toronto...and won two divisional challenges. While they were mediocre otherwise, they still outperformed the Leafs six-year effort of accomplishing nothing.

That's not what I was asking. Let's take a look at the number of hot starts to the year for Montreal. The Habs have far and away won the Cinderella Cup over the last six years. They have posted the records below to start the year and have absolutely been mediocre at best through that stretch. Before you spout your hot garbage, make sure you back it up.

20-21= 7-3
19-20= 4-6
18-19= 6-4
17-18= 2-10
16-17= 9-1
15-16= 9-1
14-15= 8-2

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

That's not what I was asking. Let's take a look at the number of hot starts to the year for Montreal. The Habs have far and away won the Cinderella Cup over the last six years. They have posted the records below to start the year and have absolutely been mediocre at best through that stretch. Before you spout your hot garbage, make sure you back it up.

20-21= 7-3
19-20= 4-6
18-19= 6-4
17-18= 2-10
16-17= 9-1
15-16= 9-1
14-15= 8-2

Simply untrue.

Leafs...
20-21=7-2-1...on pace for 123 points. Never obtained in the franchise history of Toronto. Absolutely Cinderella.
19-20= 5-5...mediocre
18-19= 7-3...on pace for 115 points. Never previously obtained. Cinderella.
17-18= 7-3...on pace for 115 points. Never previously obtained. Cinderella.
16-17= 3-7...mediocre
15-16= 1-9...mediocre
14-15= 5-5...mediocre

Versus

Habs...

20-21= 7-3...115 point pace. Reached previously by multiple Habs teams.
19-20= 4-6...mediocre
18-19= 6-4...99 point pace. More than a bit mediocre...but passable.
17-18= 2-10...mediocre
16-17= 9-1...Cinderella
15-16= 9-1...Cinderella
14-15= 8-2...132 point pace. It's stretching things...but previously obtained by a Habs team.

So...what's really factual here is that the Leafs started off 3 seasons at a pace they've never managed to keep up. The Habs, on the other hand, really only had two clear seasons of over-performing...and one close season.

Even being generous and giving the Leafs the tie...there's those pesky facts of the Habs actually winning their division during that span...twice. Those facts standing alone push the Habs onto a superior plane than Toronto.

 

[34]

There is still plenty of hockey to be played this season. It is pretty much up for grabs, but to say that only Toronto and Montreal have a chance at winning the division is not true.

 

[The Assclown]

Simply untrue.

Leafs...
20-21=7-2-1...on pace for 123 points. Never obtained in the franchise history of Toronto. Absolutely Cinderella.
19-20= 5-5...mediocre
18-19= 7-3...on pace for 115 points. Never previously obtained. Cinderella.
17-18= 7-3...on pace for 115 points. Never previously obtained. Cinderella.
16-17= 3-7...mediocre
15-16= 1-9...mediocre
14-15= 5-5...mediocre

Versus

Habs...

20-21= 7-3...115 point pace. Reached previously by multiple Habs teams.
19-20= 4-6...mediocre
18-19= 6-4...99 point pace. More than a bit mediocre...but passable.
17-18= 2-10...mediocre
16-17= 9-1...Cinderella
15-16= 9-1...Cinderella
14-15= 8-2...132 point pace. It's stretching things...but previously obtained by a Habs team.

So...what's really factual here is that the Leafs started off 3 seasons at a pace they've never managed to keep up. The Habs, on the other hand, really only had two clear seasons of over-performing...and one close season.

Even being generous and giving the Leafs the tie...there's those pesky facts of the Habs actually winning their division during that span...twice. Those facts standing alone push the Habs onto a superior plane than Toronto.

Not interested in spinning facts in any other way. Over those years that I quoted, the Habs are 45-27 in their first ten games of the year. The Leafs on the other hand are 35-35. Stop with your shit.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Not interested in spinning facts in any other way. Over those years that I quoted, the Habs are 45-27 in their first ten games of the year. The Leafs on the other hand are 35-35. Stop with your shit.

Easily explainable.

2015:
Habs...110 points-2nd overall in NHL
Leafs...68 points-27th
2016:
Habs...82 points-Tied-21st
Leafs...69 points-30th
2017:
Habs...103 points-T-7th
Leafs...95 points-T-13th
2018:
Habs...71 points-28th
Leafs...105 points-T-6th
2019:
Habs...96 points-14th
Leafs...100 points-T-7th
2020:
Habs...on pace for 82 points in the normal season-24th
Leafs...on pace for 95 points-T-13th

Total points over those seasons:
Habs...544
Leafs...532

Average finishes:
Habs...16th
Leafs...16th


Habs have simply been the team over that 6 year stretch with greater and more productive highs...and less costly lows. It's not an issue of Cinderella-ism that makes the Habs the better team in the first 10 games overall during that 6 season sample, it's simply the issue that, overall, the Habs have been the better team period.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Easily explainable.

2015:
Habs...110 points-2nd overall in NHL
Leafs...68 points-27th
2016:
Habs...82 points-Tied-21st
Leafs...69 points-30th
2017:
Habs...103 points-T-7th
Leafs...95 points-T-13th
2018:
Habs...71 points-28th
Leafs...105 points-T-6th
2019:
Habs...96 points-14th
Leafs...100 points-T-7th
2020:
Habs...on pace for 82 points in the normal season-24th
Leafs...on pace for 95 points-T-13th

Total points over those seasons:
Habs...544
Leafs...532

Average finishes:
Habs...16th
Leafs...16th


Habs have simply been the team over that 6 year stretch with greater and more productive highs...and less costly lows. It's not an issue of Cinderella-ism that makes the Habs the better team in the first 10 games overall during that 6 season sample, it's simply the issue that, overall, the Habs have been the better team period.

Not really sure what any of this has to do with this current season which is what this poll is about

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Not really sure what any of this has to do with this current season which is what this poll is about

Ask the other guy. It's his six-year window.

Relevancy to this current season...well, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. As established before, the Habs are the most sucessful of the two teams in recent history as far as peak success and divisional winning. In this thread asking who is favored to win the North, clearly the recent historical favorite is the Habs.

 

[The Assclown]

Not really sure what any of this has to do with this current season which is what this poll is about

Habs fan says Leafs are characterized by great starts to the year and then fall offs... which happens more in Montreal than Toronto.

 

[The Podium]

Simply untrue.

Leafs...
20-21=7-2-1...on pace for 123 points. Never obtained in the franchise history of Toronto. Absolutely Cinderella.
19-20= 5-5...mediocre
18-19= 7-3...on pace for 115 points. Never previously obtained. Cinderella.20
16-17= 3-7...mediocre
15-16= 1-9...mediocre
14-15= 5-5...mediocre

Versus

Habs...

20-21= 7-3...115 point pace. Reached previously by multiple Habs teams.
19-20= 4-6...mediocre
18-19= 6-4...99 point pace. More than a bit mediocre...but passable.
17-18= 2-10...mediocre
16-17= 9-1...Cinderella
15-16= 9-1...Cinderella
14-15= 8-2...132 point pace. It's stretching things...but previously obtained by a Habs team.

So...what's really factual here is that the Leafs started off 3 seasons at a pace they've never managed to keep up. The Habs, on the other hand, really only had two clear seasons of over-performing...and one close season.

Even being generous and giving the Leafs the tie...there's those pesky facts of the Habs actually winning their division during that span...twice. Those facts standing alone push the Habs onto a superior plane than Toronto.

LMAO, this is the biggest crock of shit I have ever read.

2014-2015 8-2 wasnt a hot start because the Habs hit 132 points in 1976 despite falling 22 points short that season

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

LMAO, this is the biggest crock of shit I have ever read.

2014-2015 8-2 wasnt a hot start because the Habs hit 132 points in 1976 despite falling 22 points short that season

No no....perfectly sound logic.

 

[BlueBaron]

Nothing, I just don't like them and so I'm letting my bias influence my ranking of them!

I admire your honesty I won't bug you about picking Winnipeg first since you've been sso straight forward about how your decisions are made

 

[TGWL]

Whichever team wins the majority of their games against each other.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

LMAO, this is the biggest crock of shit I have ever read.

2014-2015 8-2 wasnt a hot start because the Habs hit 132 points in 1976 despite falling 22 points short that season

One, the question was never whether or not 8-2 was a hot start. Obviously 8-2 is a hot start. The question was whether or not it was a Cinderella start, and, as you pointed out with the historical record...it isn't.

Two, if you cared to read my whole post...I actually admitted that was stretching things and gave that 8-2 run to him and still it didn't change anything. At worst, the Habs are equal to the Leafs in Cinderella seasons during that six-year stretch...and as 2X former divisional winners...clearly more inline with the original intent of this thread.

 

[BlueBaron]

Hehe. lots of petty bickering. It's nice to have this kind of rivalry rather than "who has the better prospect pool".

A nice added caveat is our D improving while their offense has improved. I suspect whichever proves more sustainable will decide.

I don't think history provides much insight considering all the moving parts and changes to both teams.

 

[notbias]

Don't sleep on the Jets. I think the Jets are sneaky here. Habs and Leafs are getting much of the attention. But Jets are just quiety stalking here. If Chevy can shore up the D, the Jets are deep at the fwd position particularly at Center where they can ice Scheifele, Dubois, Statsny and Lowry. This is the deepest Center group in the North. They also have the Vezina winner. They may be the team to watch, even with Maurice coaching.

Deepest =/= best.
Leafs, Oilers > Jets

The only place Jets are the best in the North is in net, but even then Price has the ability to be the best.

I hope the Jets finish first so Leafs vs Habs is the first round match up, but I just don't think they have good enough D to.

 

[The Podium]

One, the question was never whether or not 8-2 was a hot start. Obviously 8-2 is a hot start. The question was whether or not it was a Cinderella start, and, as you pointed out with the historical record...it isn't.

Two, if you cared to read my whole post...I actually admitted that was stretching things and gave that 8-2 run to him and still it didn't change anything. At worst, the Habs are equal to the Leafs in Cinderella seasons during that six-year stretch...and as 2X former divisional winners...clearly more inline with the original intent of this thread.

Any year prior to this season is irrelevant. Very few players for either team have been around more than a few seasons.

 

[Saitama]

I admire your honesty I won't bug you about picking Winnipeg first since you've been sso straight forward about how your decisions are made

I'm not 100% serious with these kinds of posts. I do think Winnipeg has the talent to be there of course, but the Leafs and the Habs are playing some pretty damned good hockey!

 

[TopChedder]

Don't sleep on the Jets. I think the Jets are sneaky here. Habs and Leafs are getting much of the attention. But Jets are just quiety stalking here. If Chevy can shore up the D, the Jets are deep at the fwd position particularly at Center where they can ice Scheifele, Dubois, Statsny and Lowry. This is the deepest Center group in the North. They also have the Vezina winner. They may be the team to watch, even with Maurice coaching.

I completely agree. The Jets will be there in the end.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I completely agree. The Jets will be there in the end.

I also have to think they are going to upgrade their D. Also looking how Dubois looks in the line up. He's practicing with Connor. That's 2/3rds of a #1 line on most teams.