Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose 2-1

[thewave]

I don't care what your cousin did, they are irrelevant.

Just post some studies that going from 22 min a night to 25+ is going to decrease performance significantly, you claimed it has been studied to death, please prevent some studies.

I trust the CURRENT professionals managing his load.

Why would I post studies when it's common knowledge that you keep a player down to 45seconds or less a shift and ideally 30-40 shifts a game. This averages out to the sweet spot of about 22mins a game and less if you are resting the player.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't care what your cousin did, they are irrelevant.

Just post some studies that going from 22 min a night to 25+ is going to decrease performance significantly, you claimed it has been studied to death, please prevent some studies.

I trust the CURRENT professionals managing his load.

Have to admit, no one would ever accuse you of thinking for yourself.

 

[notbias]

Why would I post studies when most teams and it's common knowledge that you keep a player down to 45seconds or less a shift and ideally 30-40 shifts a game. This averages out to the sweet spot of about 22mins a game and less if you are resting the player.

It's just, you can see it in real time every day on almost all NHL teams lol

"trust me, bro"

to each their own I guess. Imagine if McDavid played less how much better he would have been last playoffs!

 

[Dekes For Days]

For the record, Marner's 21:19 average ice time this year is the 2nd lowest of the past 4 years.

 

[thewave]

"trust me, bro"

to each their own I guess. Imagine if McDavid played less how much better he would have been last playoffs!

It's in hockey manuals but if you just want to remain ignorant and say things like "trust me bro". You could just pull the data up yourself on the league website. It shows players TOI you know. I mean.

I am not going to put Marner in with McDavid and look silly.

 

[Stephen]

I think there is absolutely a case and argument that they are overplayed as it is, and that the 11/7 is driving them into the ground. They should be following Boston's lead and reducing TOI. What do I know though.

I don’t think Boston is a good example all the time. They have a deeper forward group with more parity that they can spread out with less ice time so the standard 12F is perfect. Our forward group is higher end at the top but the ability level tapers off more sharply, so the thinking seems to be how do you squeeze more hockey out of the top end forwards.

We have less high end quality but more depth on our defense, so how do you spread around the workload without screwing up the rhythm.

This is their thinking, not mine but just describing where the two teams can’t be compared all the time.

 

[thewave]

I don’t think Boston is a good example all the time. They have a deeper forward group with more parity that they can spread out with less ice time so the standard 12F is perfect. Our forward group is higher end at the top but the ability level tapers off more sharply, so the thinking seems to be how do you squeeze more hockey out of the top end forwards.

We have less high end quality but more depth on our defense, so how do you spread around the workload without screwing up the rhythm.

This is their thinking, not mine but just describing where the two teams can’t be compared all the time.

Well.. I just go to NH.com and look at the league leaders. TOI bolded.

1
Connor McDavid
2022-23
EDM
L
C
68
56
73
129
+11
30
1.90
35
65
18
59
3
5
1
9
296
18.9
22:41
52.0
2
Leon Draisaitl
2022-23
EDM
L
C
66
44
56
100
-1
22
1.52
17
49
27
50
0
1
1
10
204
21.6
21:58
54.0
3
Nikita Kucherov
2022-23
TBL
L
R
68
27
69
96
0
32
1.41
19
55
8
41
0
0
0
4
232
11.6
20:13
100.0
4
David Pastrnak
2022-23
BOS
R
R
66
46
43
89
+29
32
1.35
32
59
14
30
0
0
2
7
310
14.8
19:45
40.0
5
Tage Thompson
2022-23
BUF
R
C
67
42
45
87
+10
26
1.30
23
55
18
31
1
1
1
6
256
16.4
18:50
42.9
6
Matthew Tkachuk
2022-23
FLA
L
L
64
30
57
87
+17
92
1.36
18
57
12
29
0
1
0
2
260
11.5
20:34
44.0
7
Mitchell Marner
2022-23
TOR
R
R
67
24
62
86
+15
24
1.28
14
50
7
32
3
4
2
4
163
14.7
21:19
0.0
8
Jason Robertson
2022-23
DAL
L
L
68
39
46
85
+27
18
1.25
29
55
10
30
0
0
0
5
266
14.7
18:50
0.0
9
Erik Karlsson
2022-23
SJS
R
D
68
20
65
85
-12
30
1.25
16
64
4
21
0
0
2
4
180
11.1
25:42
0.0
10
Elias Pettersson
2022-23
VAN
L
C
64
30
53
83
+12
10
1.30
24
57
2
18
4
8
3
4
209
14.4
20:22
43.3

 

[Stephen]

Well.. I just go to NH.com and look at the league leaders. TOI bolded.

1
Connor McDavid
2022-23
EDM
L
C
68
56
73
129
+11
30
1.90
35
65
18
59
3
5
1
9
296
18.9
22:41
52.0
2
Leon Draisaitl
2022-23
EDM
L
C
66
44
56
100
-1
22
1.52
17
49
27
50
0
1
1
10
204
21.6
21:58
54.0
3
Nikita Kucherov
2022-23
TBL
L
R
68
27
69
96
0
32
1.41
19
55
8
41
0
0
0
4
232
11.6
20:13
100.0
4
David Pastrnak
2022-23
BOS
R
R
66
46
43
89
+29
32
1.35
32
59
14
30
0
0
2
7
310
14.8
19:45
40.0
5
Tage Thompson
2022-23
BUF
R
C
67
42
45
87
+10
26
1.30
23
55
18
31
1
1
1
6
256
16.4
18:50
42.9
6
Matthew Tkachuk
2022-23
FLA
L
L
64
30
57
87
+17
92
1.36
18
57
12
29
0
1
0
2
260
11.5
20:34
44.0
7
Mitchell Marner
2022-23
TOR
R
R
67
24
62
86
+15
24
1.28
14
50
7
32
3
4
2
4
163
14.7
21:19
0.0
8
Jason Robertson
2022-23
DAL
L
L
68
39
46
85
+27
18
1.25
29
55
10
30
0
0
0
5
266
14.7
18:50
0.0
9
Erik Karlsson
2022-23
SJS
R
D
68
20
65
85
-12
30
1.25
16
64
4
21
0
0
2
4
180
11.1
25:42
0.0
10
Elias Pettersson
2022-23
VAN
L
C
64
30
53
83
+12
10
1.30
24
57
2
18
4
8
3
4
209
14.4
20:22
43.3

Not disagreeing with you, just saying Boston has their big minute players at a conventional position on defense whereas the Leafs are too heavy at F and their mission seems to be how to maximize ice time for forwards like Mitch.

So if we allocated ice time like Boston does we’d definitely be putting weaker forwards and defensemen out longer than they would. Though that changes of course when ROR comes back.

 

[Hellcat]

It's in hockey manuals but if you just want to remain ignorant and say things like "trust me bro". You could just pull the data up yourself on the league website. It shows players TOI you know. I mean.

I am not going to put Marner in with McDavid and look silly.

If we are talking about ATOI? Got some thoughts.

It really comes down to an individual, their genetics and their conditioning. McDavid, Karlson, Chabot are all guys who can play above their peers in ATOI, it seems to not affect them, other guys that are more muscular built, might get gassed quicker. Kessel who is a beach ball reportedly can play as much ice time as you need him to, they are all freaks of nature.

If you are a player that is used to playing 18 min a night, then you get 25% more ice time, logic would dictate that there is an adjustment period or you will just eventually perform at a lower level.

Every player goes through tests to understand their baselines, teams , esp a rich team like Toronto, Toronto has every health test /score that there is available, they know the limits of every player, from VO2 levels to SpO2%, heart rates, nutrient levels. I don't think it's a Keefe only decision to make players play more. Leafs health science department is all over this. Its not binary if its bad or good to get more ice time, I think its more nuanced.

 

[authentic]

Not disagreeing with you, just saying Boston has their big minute players at a conventional position on defense whereas the Leafs are too heavy at F and their mission seems to be how to maximize ice time for forwards like Mitch.

So if we allocated ice time like Boston does we’d definitely be putting weaker forwards and defensemen out longer than they would. Though that changes of course when ROR comes back.

Plus Knies is going to be up for the playoffs apparently.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Not a great game but it is what it is. Mack and Makar looked like their prime selves, and Colorado has a lot more to play for in the next 3 weeks. No doubt they want home ice, and then I am sure they'd rather face a WC team in the 1st round than face a punishing Wild team.

 

[Notsince67]

It's ok. I'm one of those who doesn't believe that diplomas are all that important.

rectal exams have nothing to do with diplomas

 

[authentic]

If we are talking about ATOI? Got some thoughts.

It really comes down to an individual, their genetics and their conditioning. McDavid, Karlson, Chabot all guys who can play above their peers in ATOI, it seems to not affect them, other guys that are more muscular built might get gassed quicker. Kessel who is a beach ball reportedly can play as much ice time as you need him to, they are all freaks of nature.

If you are a player use to playing 18 min a night then you get 25% more ice time, logic would dictate that there is an adjustment period or you will just eventually perform at a lower level.

Every player goes through tests to understand their baselines, teams , esp a rich team like Toronto has every health test /score there is out there, they know the limits of every player, from VO2 levels to SpO2%, heart rates, nutrient levels. I don't think it a Keefe only decision to make players play more. Leafs health science department is all over this. Its not binary if its bad or good to get more ice time, I think its more nuanced.

I think this idea that professional athletes can't go from 20 to 22 minutes is insane. Karlsson playing a lot of time has nothing to do with how he's bulit, it has to do with the fact that he's a number 1 defenseman. Show me a #1 defenseman anywhere or a player like McDavid who stands out from everyone else on his team who gets a lower amount of ice time. Kucherov and Pasntrnak don't play less because they can't handle more minutes, they play less because they are on a deeper team.

 

[thewave]

If we are talking about ATOI? Got some thoughts.

It really comes down to an individual, their genetics and their conditioning. McDavid, Karlson, Chabot all guys who can play above their peers in ATOI, it seems to not affect them, other guys that are more muscular built might get gassed quicker. Kessel who is a beach ball reportedly can play as much ice time as you need him to, they are all freaks of nature.

If you are a player use to playing 18 min a night then you get 25% more ice time, logic would dictate that there is an adjustment period or you will just eventually perform at a lower level.

Every player goes through tests to understand their baselines, teams , esp a rich team like Toronto has every health test /score there is out there, they know the limits of every player, from VO2 levels to SpO2%, heart rates, nutrient levels. I don't think it a Keefe only decision to make players play more. Leafs health science department is all over this. Its not binary if its bad or good to get more ice time, I think its more nuanced.

It's more simple then that. Just look at Marner ATOI this year. Marner is 21:19 and McDavid is 22:31 or something like that. When they are playing the guy 29mins he is outside his actual season norms and doing so leading up to the PO. That's really risky business.

Karlson and Chabot are D as well. McDavid again is under 23mins and he is a genetic freak.

 

[thewave]

Not disagreeing with you, just saying Boston has their big minute players at a conventional position on defense whereas the Leafs are too heavy at F and their mission seems to be how to maximize ice time for forwards like Mitch.

So if we allocated ice time like Boston does we’d definitely be putting weaker forwards and defensemen out longer than they would. Though that changes of course when ROR comes back.

I get what you mean. They haven't really pushed him too much this season though at 21:19 TOI. I think the red flag for me is putting 29mins on one of your top players right before the PO. I have seen so many players run out of gas because of this and they are always in the media after the season ends for said team, saying...

Well, they just ran out of gas and couldn't fight back. Then one of them will say they should have rested their players leading into the POs. Pretty much a hockey cliche.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Mitch is the most extreme, but Keefe is doing the same with Matthews, JT and Willy. Last four game all have been getting noticeably more ice time than their season average.

Maybe that's his idea of 'resting' them, particularly AM's hand and JT's legs

 

[Notsince67]

I think this idea that professional athletes can't go from 20 to 22 minutes is insane. Karlsson playing a lot of time has nothing to do with how he's bulit, it has to do with the fact that he's a number 1 defenseman. Show me a #1 defenseman anywhere or a player like McDavid who stands out from everyone else on his team who gets a lower amount of ice time. Kucherov and Pasntrnak don't play less because they can't handle more minutes, they play less because they are on a deeper team.

Few forwards play more than half the third period and then are asked to play almost half the overtime.

 

[Hellcat]

Plus Knies is going to be up for the playoffs apparently.

All the talk from Dubas is about not rushing him and not expecting too much from him too quickly.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It's in hockey manuals but if you just want to remain ignorant and say things like "trust me bro". You could just pull the data up yourself on the league website. It shows players TOI you know. I mean.

I am not going to put Marner in with McDavid and look silly.

I think poster was referring to the PHd studies you referenced, not TOI numbers.

 

[Racer88]

For the record, Marner's 21:19 average ice time this year is the 2nd lowest of the past 4 years.

What’s relevant is what is happening lately, leading up to the playoffs

Not disagreeing with you, just saying Boston has their big minute players at a conventional position on defense whereas the Leafs are too heavy at F and their mission seems to be how to maximize ice time for forwards like Mitch.

So if we allocated ice time like Boston does we’d definitely be putting weaker forwards and defensemen out longer than they would. Though that changes of course when ROR comes back.

So in summary Boston is well balanced and well built and the Leafs are well…….the Leafs

 

[thewave]

I think poster was referring to the PHd studies you referenced, not TOI numbers.

I said people with PHDs work with teams on this sort of thing. There was no specific study that I know of, though I imagine there must be papers related to the topic.

 

[Hellcat]

I think this idea that professional athletes can't go from 20 to 22 minutes is insane. Karlsson playing a lot of time has nothing to do with how he's bulit, it has to do with the fact that he's a number 1 defenseman. Show me a #1 defenseman anywhere or a player like McDavid who stands out from everyone else on his team who gets a lower amount of ice time. Kucherov and Pasntrnak don't play less because they can't handle more minutes, they play less because they are on a deeper team.

It could be that those extra two minutes are on the PK, those minutes would take more out of a guy than 2 minutes on the PP. It's not just physical, maybe those 2 minutes are mentally taxing. I think, generally speaking, +10% ATOI for most players is not significant. It's only 4 more shifts a game. From a conditioning stand point, I think its logical to assume they can handle it. I think it is logical to assume that they would play at a high level for those extra 4 shifts, if so why not 6 extra shifts, 8 extra, 10 extra? What is the point where you don't see benefits? At a certain point, riding them above their "norm" its a zero sum game. What about the risk of injury? The more time you play the greater the risk for injury.

I'm not a pro athlete but when I work out I normally start at 60% of my max lift weight, 5 reps for every exercise by the end of 45 to 60 minutes I'm shot, done like dinner, game over, that 60% feels like 100%. Is Marner playing 20 minutes at 80% of his max conditioning, 60%? IMO you want to find that happy medium where you ride your horses enough that you benefit but not so much you exceed their tolerances.

Chicken and the egg, Karlson's is a #1 because his conditioning and lung capacity (genetics) are legendary, plus his ability to process the game at a high rate are elite. When tested McDavids brain function to react to stimulus was off the charts, the guy who tested him said that he's only seen the same brain scan response in one other person McCafferty in the NFL. I suspect when McDavid is tested for his lung capacity and his O2 saturation, his scores are off the chart, he's a genetic freak.

Rielly?

 

[Alienblood]

It's more simple then that. Just look at Marner ATOI this year. Marner is 21:19 and McDavid is 22:31 or something like that. When they are playing the guy 29mins he is outside his actual season norms and doing so leading up to the PO. That's really risky business.

Karlson and Chabot are D as well. McDavid again is under 23mins and he is a genetic freak.

MacKinnon averages 22.18

 

[Hellcat]

Few forwards play more than half the third period and then are asked to play almost half the overtime.

Is that because the coach has no answers and is desperate or because the coach recognizes that player is able to handle it?

Keefe's default when he being out coached or his game plan is not working is to either stack lines or to play his stars more. IMO its like he's throwing his hands up in the air in disgust with no answers. From 10,000 feet away and the comfort of my couch, he seems to be a very immature / impatient coach, I don't mean immature like he taking tantrums but immature in the sense that more experienced or better coaches, like Tortorella and Cooper are able to wait him out. He's the guy who blinks first.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What’s relevant is what is happening lately, leading up to the playoffs

Marner's ice time in a game a month prior to the playoffs isn't very relevant.