Post-Game Talk: Leafs Kept Calm, Proved Corsi Wrong & Still #1 in the Atlantic

[Primary Assist]

tied @ 6

Reminds me of last year when everyone was harping on Phil, even though he lead the team in Points since basically the first game. This year Lupes is the whipping boy.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Great to get the win however very concerned about Cody. Phil showed some leadership tonight. The whole 1st line were on fire. Rielly with another solid game, Kadri and Lupes much better and you can't say enough about how solid Bernier is.

Boston loses. Detroit loses. Toronto wins. All is good.

Leafs are one of the best opportunistic teams in the league, it's a trend we've certainly seen over the past year now, make one mistake and the Leafs will BERN you.

Penalties 4-4. Leafs outshot 36-26. Leafs win 4-0. OK so without the major penalty Leafs are outshot and out powerplayed and still win 2-0. No excuses!

The scary thing is, wait until they get Clarkson back.

 

[Budsfan]

Leafs PR ‏@LeafsPR 1h

The #Leafs have assigned defenceman T.J. Brennan to the Toronto Marlies (AHL). #TMLtalk

 

[hockeywiz542]

http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs..._three_straight_nhl_games_for_first_time.html

Jonathan Bernier has never started three games in a row in his NHL career.

That is about to change.

Bernier is expected to start Saturday for the Maple Leafs at home to the Edmonton Oilers after shutting out the Nashville Predators on Thursday night.

He made 36 saves for his seventh career shutout and first as a Maple Leaf. Through four games with the team (three starts), Bernier is 3-1-0 with a 0.85 goals-against average and .974 save percentage.

He improved to 8-1-0 with a 1.67 goals-against average, .941 save percentage and two shutouts in nine career games versus the Predators.

James Reimer started two games — the season opener in Montreal and the home opener against Ottawa. He was pulled in the second period of that game after allowing four goals and hasn't played since. With Bernier in net, the Leafs came back and beat Ottawa in a shootout.

 

[Budsfan]

http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs..._three_straight_nhl_games_for_first_time.html

The video with that article, showning David Clarkson and Barb Underhill, was interesting.

I have no problem giving the start to Bernier, right now he is the Hot Goal Tender.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Reminds me of last year when everyone was harping on Phil, even though he lead the team in Points since basically the first game. This year Lupes is the whipping boy.

Not to justify the harping, but Kadri lead in scoring until the 20ish game mark.

 

[Primary Assist]

Not to justify the harping, but Kadri lead in scoring until the 20ish game mark.

My mistake, I might have been thinking of Phil leading in assists. Regardless Lupul's still putting up the points, even if he does go "invisible" during certain parts of the game. But as a goalscorer that's going to happen.

 

[Duke Silver]

Yeah it's serious. Didn't say I would do it, but I think the value is there. I don't over value Couts, but he is a big body Center that needs a fresh start a la JVR. I am also trying not to over value Reims and Gards, and Blacker doesn't seem to be going anywhere fast.

You don't overvalue Couts but then you propose his trade value is Reimer, Gardiner and Blacker?

C'mon man. That's a ridiculous overpayment.

Couturier hasn't shown he's anything special.

 

[Suntouchable13]

If Brenan is down that means that Cody will be OK?

 

[Vexed]

You don't overvalue Couts but then you propose his trade value is Reimer, Gardiner and Blacker?

C'mon man. That's a ridiculous overpayment.

Couturier hasn't shown he's anything special.

I agree. I think the only possible deal there would be Gardiner for Couts.

Its kind of like the Jvr for Schenn trade where Jvr looked good in the playoffs but had some questions still and Schenn hadn't done much.

Maybe some sort of pick to balance the age difference.

 

[FlareKnight]

The video with that article, showning David Clarkson and Barb Underhill, was interesting.

I have no problem giving the start to Bernier, right now he is the Hot Goal Tender.

Yeah, thought it was a good little video. Nice to see Clarkson doing whatever he can to improve himself and stay game ready until the suspension passes. Still another 5 games to go, but looks like he'll be ready to go when it's over.

And I agree there is no issue with riding the hot goalie. Bernier is giving the team chances to win and is looking amazing out there. See how far he can carry things. Reimer will be ready to step in.

 

[Espher]

Bern them all.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Bern'in down the house!

Good teams always find a way to win. Two years ago...Leafs would have probably folded in this type of a game.

 

[Confucius]

Burnyay

 

[Ari91]

Not a fan of shoehorning someone into the line up just for the sake of it.

I cheer for the Jersey for the most part, not the bodies that fill it.

The coach should always make the call on the basis for whats best for the team.

I cheer for the logo too, I'm just speculating based on the 'share the net' approach that the team is taking. I would ride Bernier as long as possible but I don't think that's what Carlyle will do so that's why I said I hope he holds on to Bernier for the next two starts providing that he continues to play well. Reimer is capable and most nights does give his team a chance to win so it's not like Carlyle would be jeopardizing his team by putting Reimer in net.

With all that said, I just looked at the schedule after the Wild game...and I realize that if Bernier continues to play this well, I would want him for pretty much all of October based on the teams we're up against though there's a back to back at the end of the month so I'm guessing that will be split.

And on an unrelated note, I'm annoyed that the Leafs site no longer has the monthly schedule calendar on the main page.

 

[zeke]

Couturier looks like a less-skilled Antropov.

 

[IBeL34f]

Reminds me of last year when everyone was harping on Phil, even though he lead the team in Points since basically the first game. This year Lupes is the whipping boy.

It's not that he's a whipping boy, but when watching the games it's obvious that he's still getting himself in mid-season form. You're looking at this the same way all of the crazies are looking at Gardiner: just because someone says they can play better, doesn't mean they're saying he's playing badly. Lupul (and Gardiner) have another gear that they hasn't yet been shown this season. Pointing that out is not bashing or turning anyone into a whipping boy. The same can be said about Kadri (also ~PPG), and most players on the team not named Bernier, Kessel, van Riemsdyk or Phaneuf.

 

[Disgruntled Observer*]

I think the idea of Corsi is that on a long enough time frame, bad habits/team weaknesses will start to add up and affect you position in the standings.

Even the biggest supporters of Corsi would probably agree that it doesn't mean much in short sample sizes, like 5 games.

The leafs thus far have been blessed by ridiculously good goaltending that's stealing some games.

But I still think it's mostly good news for this team. Even while not playing great hockey, they're finding ways to win. That's what separates good teams from lousy teams.

I think the leafs aren't as good as their record shows thus far.
But the weird thing is that I think the team is actually BETTER than what we've seen on the ice and what is shown with Corsi.

In short, I think that Corsi DOES matter... but as the season progresses, the leafs Corsi numbers will improve.

 

[ECanuck]

I think the idea of Corsi is that on a long enough time frame, bad habits/team weaknesses will start to add up and affect you position in the standings.

Even the biggest supporters of Corsi would probably agree that it doesn't mean much in short sample sizes, like 5 games.

The leafs thus far have been blessed by ridiculously good goaltending that's stealing some games.

But I still think it's mostly good news for this team. Even while not playing great hockey, they're finding ways to win. That's what separates good teams from lousy teams.

I think the leafs aren't as good as their record shows thus far.
But the weird thing is that I think the team is actually BETTER than what we've seen on the ice and what is shown with Corsi.

In short, I think that Corsi DOES matter... but as the season progresses, the leafs Corsi numbers will improve.

There can be exceptions though. I'm not sure how they do their data but do they assume every team has the same tools?

If we went to a shooting range and everyone brought hand guns and I had a sniper riffle, I would be winning until the cows came home.

 

[Disgruntled Observer*]

There can be exceptions though. I'm not sure how they do their data but do they assume every team has the same tools?

If we went to a shooting range and everyone brought hand guns and I had a sniper riffle, I would be winning until the cows came home.

But every team does have the same tools. They all bring hockey sticks. Nobody's bringing a sniper rifle.

 

[Penalty Kill Icing*]

But every team does have the same tools. They all bring hockey sticks. Nobody's bringing a sniper rifle.

Leafs have a special "net" at practice facility that records shots and helps shooter improve their shot. Do all teams have that? [A: No. No other team has it AFAIK]

 

[Pi]

But every team does have the same tools. They all bring hockey sticks. Nobody's bringing a sniper rifle.

Things I don't like about corsi.

-It judges all shots taken as equal. Just a number. A weak shot from a terrible angle is equal to a great shot 10 ft outside the net.

-Someone earlier in this thread said that the Leafs had 13 shots from <20ft while the Predators only had 5. That means that over half of our shots had a better chance of creating something...only 5 of 36 Predator shots were possibly harmful.

-It can't possibly be judged accurately because the optics of a game changes as the score changes. If we're defending a 2 goal lead...most teams like to keep it clean in front of their net, let teams take low key shots and dump the puck whenever they get it and it repeats again and again..

In this case, your corsi will be negative even though you're just defending your lead and letting the time run out.

Don't even get me started on individual corsi stats for and against, those are just bogus. Seguin went from ~60% with the Bruins to about 45% with Dallas at the moment. The team you play for has a big impact on how good those advanced stats are.

 

[Duffman955]

I think the idea of Corsi is that on a long enough time frame, bad habits/team weaknesses will start to add up and affect you position in the standings.

Even the biggest supporters of Corsi would probably agree that it doesn't mean much in short sample sizes, like 5 games.

The leafs thus far have been blessed by ridiculously good goaltending that's stealing some games.

But I still think it's mostly good news for this team. Even while not playing great hockey, they're finding ways to win. That's what separates good teams from lousy teams.

I think the leafs aren't as good as their record shows thus far.
But the weird thing is that I think the team is actually BETTER than what we've seen on the ice and what is shown with Corsi.

In short, I think that Corsi DOES matter... but as the season progresses, the leafs Corsi numbers will improve.

The idea CORSi is a terrible way to predict games. It doesn't take into account quality of scoring chances.

Any team would take 1 quality scoring chance over 5 shots from the outside every day of the week.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Leafs have a special "net" at practice facility that records shots and helps shooter improve their shot. Do all teams have that? [A: No. No other team has it AFAIK]

do they really? that's so cool!

 

[ECanuck]

But every team does have the same tools. They all bring hockey sticks. Nobody's bringing a sniper rifle.

My point was a team could have less talented players that play good in a system. So that system combined with their efforts allows them to take shots. Lack of skill though brings their shooting % to average or below average. Where if you had a few guys that snipe the results would be different.