*litmus test*.
Toronto is a similar spot going into next year as the Oilers were coming into this year. Yes, they have a bunch of cap space in theory, but that space is absolutely gone after next year when Matthews and Marner need extensions. They’ll also need to make a decision on Gardiner.
The only similarity between the Leafs and Oilers is that their best players will be paid a lot.
The major difference is that the Leafs don't have a bunch of bad contracts limiting the further success of the team. On contrary, the Leafs have many good contracts and will be able to attract UFA's at a cheaper rate to plug holes in the rest of the roster.
And no that does not mean Tavares is coming to Toronto, give me a break he's a terrible fit for the Leafs. All the money they could be using to beef up that D would be a waste on Tavares who's primarily skillset is already a luxury that the Leafs have plenty of.
Matthews will get the Toews/Kane contract at minimum. Nylander/Marner likely sign similar contracts between 6-7M depending on the term, how many UFA years it kills etc.
So yes the Leafs will obviously be having cap issues soon but the only bad contract on the team is Martin who I think can be moved with a small bit of incentive/retention.
The leafs are finally at the point where they have a legitimate core that can compete for the cup ever year. They just need to be able to insulate it well, unlike Chiarelli was able to do.