Confirmed with Link: Leafs go 4-4-1 in expansion, Dermott, Kerfoot, McCann, exposed

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Leafsfan74

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Jul 2, 2018
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I can’t see the leafs doing that. I get your line of thinking. But I think the leafs are high on both Kerfoot and McCann and are secretly hoping Dermott is Seattle’s pick. I do not see them trading the other forward for draft capital. But I can understand why you think they may

I think the Leafs protected themselves from every eventuality and neither of the options is particular better or worse than the other. I see the Price situation in the same light. Hab fans aren't sure if they want him chosen or not. They don't want to lose their beloved goalie, but, they also see the $10.5M cap space being freed for an aging goalie.

The best scenario would have the Leafs with an agreement with Seattle already. However, the picking up of McCann decreases this likelihood.

They are probably just putting insurance out there for less of a cost (Hallander and a 7th) than Seattle would want to have Leafs pick their player. It's one of those situations in which fans won't know the entire story until after Seattle makes their picks and all can be revealed.
 
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New Liskeard

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Jul 7, 2007
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Holl is a 3rd pairing guy on merit and on contract and a 2nd pairing guy worthy of protection only because he is a good fit with Muzzin who carries him as he would anyone paired with him. People have it backwards its not how are you going to find a 2nd pairing guy making $2mil to replace him if lost, but rather recognizing he isn't a stand alone 2nd pairing player on his own merits, and should be in your 3rd pairing as he is being paid relatively high for a 3rd pairing guy and easily replaceable in that role by simply re-signing Bogosian (~@ $1.5 mil) for less and playing him as your RHD?

But what if that situation changes?

Jake Muzzin got hurt in game #6 (early) in the playoffs and Leafs went on to lose both games #6 and #7 as his injury exposed the Leafs defense that they only had 2 top 4 dmen left in Reilly and Brodie . In game #7 Corey Perry is standing all alone beside the side of the net tipping in the series winning goal without Jake standing there beside Holl on the PK.

Picture Leafs defense without Muzzin (injured) and Holl as your top 2nd pairing defender expected to carry the load of that duo.

Reilly --- Brodie
Sandin -- Holl
**Dermott -- Lilegren

Yikes !!!

** If Seattle takes McCann or Kerfoot. (and weakens Leaf forward group even more).

Letting Holl go to Seattle and reclaiming his $2 mil and then topping that up to$4 mil and adding a real 2nd pairing RHD Dman would be an option worth considering. IMO


Which is why I would like to see the Leafs sign 28 year old Jamie Oleksiak to a long term deal to eventually take over for Muzz. 6-7 year deal for approx 3 mil per having alternating partners such as Holl, Lily or even Dermott who IMO can play both sides.
 

Leafsfan74

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Sadly I don’t think we are getting any significant additions anytime soon

Leafs could trade Reilly to make space for Hamilton. Or, after the expansion player loss and shedding of Andersen/Hyman cap space, pick up Hamilton for their top pairing and have a bottom pairing of Holl/Dermott with some games with Sandin as Leafs are going to shed.

The second scenario not only improves the overall defense, it allows Holl to play easier minutes, which makes him immediately that much more effective.

It's a choice of a bigger focus on forwards vs a focus on D. For me, regardless, Leafs should make a play for Hamilton. They have to nickel and dime and they've been given some of this opportunity with the Spezza/Simmonds veteran hometown discount signings.
 

Racer88

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Leafs could trade Reilly to make space for Hamilton. Or, after the expansion player loss and shedding of Andersen/Hyman cap space, pick up Hamilton for their top pairing and have a bottom pairing of Holl/Dermott with some games with Sandin as Leafs are going to shed.

The second scenario not only improves the overall defense, it allows Holl to play easier minutes, which makes him immediately that much more effective.

It's a choice of a bigger focus on forwards vs a focus on D. For me, regardless, Leafs should make a play for Hamilton. They have to nickel and dime and they've been given some of this opportunity with the Spezza/Simmonds veteran hometown discount signings.
I agree they should do something and if Dubas was committed to trying to rebalance the team he would be making a trade even higher up the food chain but I’m not sure he is savvy enough to do it
 

Stephen

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I agree they should do something and if Dubas was committed to trying to rebalance the team he would be making a trade even higher up the food chain but I’m not sure he is savvy enough to do it

Without rebalancing the big contracts at the top of the roster, Dubas is relying on a number of bottom dollar contracts to average down salaries throughout the lineup.

Because the biggest contracts are all up front, that means there are a lot of bets to beat the market by a significant margin at key positions.

So for example, if you have a $11 million center, you need a $1.65 million goalie to average down those two roster spots to $6.325 million. Only problem with that bet is you need the goalie to give you nearly $5 million above his salary in quality. And he's not a player with unlimited upside on an ELC. And so on and so forth with the bets up and down the lineup.
 

zeke

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Leafs could trade Reilly to make space for Hamilton. Or, after the expansion player loss and shedding of Andersen/Hyman cap space, pick up Hamilton for their top pairing and have a bottom pairing of Holl/Dermott with some games with Sandin as Leafs are going to shed.

The second scenario not only improves the overall defense, it allows Holl to play easier minutes, which makes him immediately that much more effective.

It's a choice of a bigger focus on forwards vs a focus on D. For me, regardless, Leafs should make a play for Hamilton. They have to nickel and dime and they've been given some of this opportunity with the Spezza/Simmonds veteran hometown discount signings.

Did you not like the team defense this year?
 

Ciao

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Jul 15, 2010
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ya or sure, that's the narrative that has been thrown around for a while. I guess in my mind I value McCann as a higher value player over Kerfoot. And quite frankly I was ok with the Leafs losing Kerfoot. Not because I think he is shit, far from it. I just feel like we can find a suitable replacement for around the same AAV in UFA. I just don't see the same when it comes to McCann. McCann is far exceeding his current AAV and is still under team control after next season. I honestly have no clue why Seattle would value Kerf over him personally. By leaving them both exposed, in my mind we are hoping that Seattle drops the ball and takes Kerf. But hey, maybe there was some handshake agreement that was made that we are not privy to
I'm happy with the trade and all, but I think our perceptions of McCann will fall a bit when we get a closer look.
 
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Ciao

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I think the Leafs protected themselves from every eventuality and neither of the options is particular better or worse than the other. I see the Price situation in the same light. Hab fans aren't sure if they want him chosen or not. They don't want to lose their beloved goalie, but, they also see the $10.5M cap space being freed for an aging goalie.

The best scenario would have the Leafs with an agreement with Seattle already. However, the picking up of McCann decreases this likelihood.

They are probably just putting insurance out there for less of a cost (Hallander and a 7th) than Seattle would want to have Leafs pick their player. It's one of those situations in which fans won't know the entire story until after Seattle makes their picks and all can be revealed.
I suspect that Seattle's ask was too high so the Leafs took their business elsewhere.
 

Leafsfan74

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Did you not like the team defense this year?

Of course. We are most likely losing Bogosian and we still need to improve since management has decided they are not going to trade the core. This means the chances of having a strong, forechecking forward group is near impossible to piece together.

Thus, Leafs have to build an identity that is defense-first, physical and tough to play against. More size, Game and a shot from the point from time to time. I'd have my eyes on two D that would improve the backend however possible and move on from Reilly who Leafs can't afford in a year anyways.
 

zeke

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Of course. We are most likely losing Bogosian and we still need to improve since management has decided they are not going to trade the core. This means the chances of having a strong, forechecking forward group is near impossible to piece together.

Thus, Leafs have to build an identity that is defense-first, physical and tough to play against. More size, Game and a shot from the point from time to time. I'd have my eyes on two D that would improve the backend however possible and move on from Reilly who Leafs can't afford in a year anyways.


Bogosian signed for $1m. We can sign him or a replacement again, if you really don't want to ever let the kids play.
 

Leafsfan74

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Bogosian signed for $1m. We can sign him or a replacement again, if you really don't want to ever let the kids play.

He is going to test free agency. He probably wants 2-3 year term and gets paid a little more.

As for Sandin, he should get some reps in this year but I still believe that few Stanley Cup contenders are icing a 20 year old D Man in the playoffs. You have to slowly place these players in a spot to succeed. Due to the Cap crunch the Leafs had better decide where their cheaper assets are going to be. If they are in the backend. Good luck.

You can have a young forwards with speed play up front and get them to learn the game the right way, it isn't going to hurt you as much as a young D Man who loses his confidence, makes mistakes or is pushed around. We saw that in the playoffs with Sandin in game 5 against the Habs. That's how I view the NHL career cycle of players based on their positions.

Where and how can the Leafs improve their team if they lose Hyman, Kerfoot and Bogosian?
 

zeke

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Where and how can the Leafs improve their team if they lose Hyman, Kerfoot and Bogosian?

Bogosian was picked up for peanuts by our clever GM. There will be many similar opportunities this year - even if you never want to give our kids a chance.

Hyman is already replaced by McCann.

Then we have $10m to upgrade on Kerfoot, Galy, and the horrific version of Fred that played last year.
 
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4thline

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Then we have $10m to upgrade on Kerfoot, Galy, and the horrific version of Fred that played last year.

I don't think we'll want to run a 20 man over a full season, should figure on atleast a 7th dman being carried full time.

McCann-Matthews-Marner
xxx-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-xxx-Mikheyev
Simmonds-Brooks-Spezza

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Dermott
Sandin-Holl
900k

Campbell
2m

7m split between 2LW and 3C. Whether it's 3.5/3.5 4/3 or 5/2, that's a decent pair of players in the flat cap
 

4thline

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We did this year.

It wasn't a full year, and it wasn't a great situation. 21 is fine, even smart when you have a heavy minute top 6 and have no issue playing with 11 forwards for a game, but setting yourself up to only roster 6 defensemen (and be constrained in which you can recall) it not something to do other than out of necessity- which as my edit shows is not the case
 

zeke

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It wasn't a full year, and it wasn't a great situation. 21 is fine, even smart when you have a heavy minute top 6 and have no issue playing with 11 forwards for a game, but setting yourself up to only roster 6 defensemen (and be constrained in which you can recall) it not something to do other than out of necessity- which as my edit shows is not the case

Eh we've seen there's all sorts of shenanigans dubey and pridham can pull to get extra guys up when they need it. They did it all year.

I wouldn't worry about it at all.
 

Smif

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Jan 23, 2008
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I don't think we'll want to run a 20 man over a full season, should figure on atleast a 7th dman being carried full time.

McCann-Matthews-Marner
xxx-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-xxx-Mikheyev
Simmonds-Brooks-Spezza

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Dermott
Sandin-Holl
900k

Campbell
2m

7m split between 2LW and 3C. Whether it's 3.5/3.5 4/3 or 5/2, that's a decent pair of players in the flat cap
Priority has to be that 3C spot. Bring back Galchenyuk or use Robertson as the 2nd LW and get the bonafide ahutdown 3C we've been missing. Also, Mikheyev's salary is killing us for what he provides. Je could be replaced for less or upgraded on for the same salary.
 

kb

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Aug 28, 2009
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honestly I just have this gut feeling that Kerfoot and McCann are both going to be Seattle Kraken by Tomorrow. They reportedly had been very high on both of the players, and would have under normal circumstances been able to select both player without any price. But now that we have both players, there is going to be a cost to acquire them both. I think in Seattle's mind these were 2 players they likely had penciled into their Mock's for a while now, and have likely orchestrated their cap management around low AAV deal like these 2. That said, If we would have protected them both under a 7F + 3D scenario, it would have only made the return that much greater. I really don't like the current protection scheme that this management group has implemented. I am usually very complimentary of this management group, but this is unacceptable asset management IMO. Timothy Liljegren is only a marginal step backwards from Holl at the current moment, but at some point he is going to have to shit or get off the potty. This was the perfect succession plan to leave Holl exposed, who has completely max'd out his potential. Yet we expose 2 very useful depth forwards at low AAV's and from a positional weakness. I've tried to understand this scheme from another lens, but I will never get it personally. The logic of losing McCann is like losing Hallander and a 7th is completely f***ing stupid IMO. We won the McCann trade from the inception of the trade. We immediately got better with that addition. That was the roster. McCann was part of the roster. We don't lose Hallander and a 7th if they select McCann, we lose a player that should have been playing games for the Leafs next year. I'd say usually Dubas and comapny play 3D Chess while others are playing checkers, but they either do not value McCann at all, or they completely missed the mark on this protection list. Hopefully this begins to make more sense in the coming days
They can only pick one of them....???

EDIT: Saw you meant trade too. Not sure they would trade the other.
 
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Racer88

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Sep 29, 2020
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Without rebalancing the big contracts at the top of the roster, Dubas is relying on a number of bottom dollar contracts to average down salaries throughout the lineup.

Because the biggest contracts are all up front, that means there are a lot of bets to beat the market by a significant margin at key positions.

So for example, if you have a $11 million center, you need a $1.65 million goalie to average down those two roster spots to $6.325 million. Only problem with that bet is you need the goalie to give you nearly $5 million above his salary in quality. And he's not a player with unlimited upside on an ELC. And so on and so forth with the bets up and down the lineup.
I know……..he is freaking incompetent
 
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