Post-Game Talk: Leafs are not better without Rielly

[notDatsyuk]

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly - 4 best players on the Leafs. Dubas brought in NONE of them. Once again way off the mark

Fify

 

[rocketman588]

Hell even the team that beat those Caps in the playoffs last year, sure they don't have a 1st round pick until the year 3000 and it looks like they're going to miss the playoffs this year while being capped out with long-term albatrosses that would cost fortunes to move, but they won more rounds than us last year so their management is objectively better than ours.

They have their next 3 first rounders and have made a first round pick 18/19/20/22

They also have 3 contracts on their team longer then 4 years and no contracts above 10 mil a year.

It appears they're set up for more long term cap flexibility then we are with a longer history of high picks

Didn't want to jump on the bandwagon too much as I think we're actually playing more sustainable defensive hockey this year but holy crap do people make up BS when defending their boy dubas

Every team that wins a series has somehow traded away every pick for the next 50 years and signed every player to 15 year deals according to some

While we have a "stacked prospect pool" despite selling every high pick for 4 years

People are desperate to win because our future is as shaky as most teams. We're very much so at risk of not resigning at least one of willy, AM and Mitch

 

[JT AM da real deal]

First stinker since the terrible start.

It was 1 game out of 20 .. not anything to worry about .. Matty and Willy still tilted ice when they were on it .. JT was brutal .. Holl was brutal .. and 4th line was brutal .. oh well again it was 1 game on road .. no biggie

 

[ULF_55]

While we have a "stacked prospect pool" despite selling every high pick for 4 years

People are desperate to win because our future is as shaky as most teams. We're very much so at risk of not resigning at least one of willy, AM and Mitch

Do you mean every 1st. rounder for 4 years?
Are 1st. round picks the only high pick in the draft?
Actually, it is 3 out of 4, 1st. rounders.

Just like some clarity, so there is no misinterpretation.

...

I'm down for trading more 1st. round picks for a good cause.

Funny, I've read Dylan Larkin isn't going anywhere and he's UFA, and the Wings "franchise" level player today. So do the same rules apply to Leafs players?

I'd consider a 1st. for Larkin.

...

Anyway, it will nice to have Rielly back, never have too many defenders.

 

[PromisedLand]

Do you mean every 1st. rounder for 4 years?
Are 1st. round picks the only high pick in the draft?
Actually, it is 3 out of 4, 1st. rounders.

Just like some clarity, so there is no misinterpretation.

...

I'm down for trading more 1st. round picks for a good cause.

Funny, I've read Dylan Larkin isn't going anywhere and he's UFA, and the Wings "franchise" level player today. So do the same rules apply to Leafs players?

I'd consider a 1st. for Larkin.

...

Anyway, it will nice to have Rielly back, never have too many defenders.

Rielly is the Leafs #1 D-man; there is no denying that until Lily takes that mantle. Lily is the only capable d-man Leafs have IMO after Rielly.

Brodie is good but he doesn’t have a solid first pass, offensive acumen, point shot, skating ability like Rielly and Lily IMO

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Basing GM decisions exclusively on playoff series wins and losses is lazy and how you destroy teams.

“Basing a persons job security on how successful they are is lazy”

Do you hear how stupid that sounds

 

[mikeyz]

You whine non-stop about "sample size" but now you're trying to claim that 1 season out of how many is grounds to not bring a GM back who otherwise built a perennial powerhouse?

Your standard changes everyday, it's hilarious.

Nice try attempting to put words in my mouth. Nowhere did I insinuate the GM is the sole cause of the cup win. My argument is actually based on playoff failure being just cause to switch GM's, something you tried arguing vehemently against earlier in the thread.


Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Rielly - 4 best players on the Leafs. Dubas brought in ONE of them. Once again way off the mark

Bang on.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Bad night by Samsonov but can't be too mad with him coming off back to back shutouts.

Ya he was due for a bad night, still think he deserves more starts than Murray moving forward.

 

[Dekes For Days]

“Basing a persons job security on how successful they are is lazy”
Do you hear how stupid that sounds

Except that's not what anybody said. There's a lot more to how successful a GM is at their job than simply the win-loss record of the team over a couple weeks of the year, especially when ignoring all context of why they had that win-loss record over that time. What's lazy is relying exclusively on that to tell you everything about a GM.

 

[Martin Skoula]

They have their next 3 first rounders and have made a first round pick 18/19/20/22

They also have 3 contracts on their team longer then 4 years and no contracts above 10 mil a year.

It appears they're set up for more long term cap flexibility then we are with a longer history of high picks

Didn't want to jump on the bandwagon too much as I think we're actually playing more sustainable defensive hockey this year but holy crap do people make up BS when defending their boy dubas

Every team that wins a series has somehow traded away every pick for the next 50 years and signed every player to 15 year deals according to some

While we have a "stacked prospect pool" despite selling every high pick for 4 years

People are desperate to win because our future is as shaky as most teams. We're very much so at risk of not resigning at least one of willy, AM and Mitch

The team that beat Washington, the Florida Panthers, don't have a 1st for the next 3 years and are looking like they're no longer a playoff team this year. They have a 10 million a year backup goalie.

But they won a series when we didn't, so obviously their management has done a significantly better job setting that team up for success. Sure the team we took to a coin flip game 7 swept them in humiliating fashion right after, but they won a series and that is what really matters for assessing a GM's work.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Except that's not what anybody said. There's a lot more to how successful a GM is at their job than simply the win-loss record of the team over a couple weeks of the year, especially when ignoring all context of why they had that win-loss record over that time. What's lazy is relying exclusively on that to tell you everything about a GM.

I don’t necessarily disagree and I think that dubas has built a good team, especially the last 2 runs however when you can’t get over the hump, which is the first round, something should change. Whether it’s management or part of the core.

we haven’t drafted as strong in the last 3-4 years outside of the 1st round for nhl ready players, so we don’t have many ELCs coming up rn to make an impact. Robertson is injured, and Knies is playing college right now

Shuffling the deck chairs with depth pieces only works so much, and when you don’t even take the opportunity to deal a couple of them for upgrades, like kerfoot and holl, you really are only left with two options

Dubas has made it evident that he isn’t dealing any of the core 4, so if the recipe fails again then he’s the only one left to blame/scapegoat

Hopefully all of this is just stupid talk and the leafs go on a deep run and he gets extended, but the points is valid to wait till the team actually shows playoff success before making the decision to resign him

 

[Byron Bitz]

Except that's not what anybody said. There's a lot more to how successful a GM is at their job than simply the win-loss record of the team over a couple weeks of the year, especially when ignoring all context of why they had that win-loss record over that time. What's lazy is relying exclusively on that to tell you everything about a GM.

But don’t you think every organization should have a minimum standard of success for playoff results?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I don’t necessarily disagree and I think that dubas has built a good team, especially the last 2 runs however when you can’t get over the hump, which is the first round, something should change.

Saying "something should change" suggests to me that you're looking for change for the sake of change; merely to satiate your anger at not getting the outcomes you wanted. But change for the sake of change is pointless and often more destructive than helpful. There needs to be purpose behind decisions like this. We're consistently a top-tier team with one of the best chances at a cup, and some people are so blinded by short term outcomes that they don't seem to understand, that they're inexplicably in a rush to change that, point fingers in the wrong directions, and get rid of the best parts of our team that it took decades to get.

we haven’t drafted as strong in the last 3-4 years outside of the 1st round for nhl ready players, so we don’t have many ELCs coming up rn to make an impact. Robertson is injured, and Knies is playing college right now

Not sure what you mean. Our drafting outside of the 1st round has been stronger under Dubas than it's been for a long, long time. It's just too early for many of those drafts. We're just starting to see the results of the earlier Dubas drafts, with 6 of our 9 picks in 2018 getting games in the NHL this season. And that doesn't even include Robertson and Knies.

 

[Dekes For Days]

But don’t you think every organization should have a minimum standard of success for playoff results?

If our GM was building a bad team, or our players were performing badly in the playoffs, there would be more cause for concern for one of those areas.
But neither of those things are happening, and the biggest problems in our past playoffs have largely been moved on from already, or are not entirely within our control.

 

[ToneDog]

Except that's not what anybody said. There's a lot more to how successful a GM is at their job than simply the win-loss record of the team over a couple weeks of the year, especially when ignoring all context of why they had that win-loss record over that time. What's lazy is relying exclusively on that to tell you everything about a GM.

So why was he not extended after a record 115 point season or in November when the team was lights out ??

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Saying "something should change" suggests to me that you're looking for change for the sake of change; merely to satiate your anger at not getting the outcomes you wanted. But change for the sake of change is pointless and often more destructive than helpful. There needs to be purpose behind decisions like this. We're consistently a top-tier team with one of the best chances at a cup, and some people are so blinded by short term outcomes that they don't seem to understand, that they're inexplicably in a rush to change that, point fingers in the wrong directions, and get rid of the best parts of our team that it took decades to get.

Not sure what you mean. Our drafting outside of the 1st round has been stronger under Dubas than it's been for a long, long time. It's just too early for many of those drafts. We're just starting to see the results of the earlier Dubas drafts, with 6 of our 9 picks in 2018 getting games in the NHL this season. And that doesn't even include Robertson and Knies.

I mean in terms of top 6 capability, there have been three weaknesses in the team since dubas took over, top 4 LHD and RHD, and 2LW. He had the options for 2LW with johnsson and maybe kapanen but they didn’t fit with our cap structure so we dealt them, got amirov who unfortunately got sick, johnsson got us a guy who may start contributing in the bottom six.

Dubas addressed the top 4dman beautifully, trading for muzzin and getting Brodie. Muzzin should now be replaced by one of Sandin or Liljegren and Brodie should too.

Dubas hasn’t been able to trade for that 2LW, he hasn’t been able to sign that 2LW, and he hasn’t been able to draft a 2LW. Maybe it’s unfair expectations I’ve placed on him to draft a guy who should be in our top 6 or in the mix for it, but I feel most teams have a guy or two who’s real gems from later rounds.

From that 2018 draft class:

Sandin - Good Defencemen, future top4 potential

Durzi - solid defencemen, also top4 potential, just never got to play here

Stotts - playing in canadian university as a 23 year old, not dominating like he should, don’t expect an nhler there

Hollowell - looked very green, decent skating maybe a bottom pairing nhler, but more likely to be a tweener

Filip Kral - don’t see as much hype as other do, don’t really think he does much in terms of the
Nhl

Holmberg - this is a good pick, he’s trending towards a solid bottom 6 player, could become kampf 2.0


As for your first point, staying par for the course is also just as pointless as suggesting change for the sake of change. We’ve witnessed so many undesirable outcomes, in a row that it can’t just be due to pointless. Maybe it is frustration, but not being able to get over the hump for this many years makes me worry that if we do get over the first round, the only thing waiting is the second round.

 

[therealkoho]

Lmao

Thank you sir, I would have paid to see all the puzzled faces that didn't "get" that joke

 

[Dekes For Days]

So why was he not extended after a record 115 point season or in November when the team was lights out ??

Well, he's not going to be extended in November if he wasn't extended after a franchise-record season.
It's all speculation why he wasn't extended in the off-season, but it certainly raises concerns that ownership is improperly prioritizing perception over winning a bit too much.
I imagine they trust we'll win at least a playoff series this year and then they can extend Dubas and everything will be fine, but it's playing with fire.

 

[PromisedLand]

So why was he not extended after a record 115 point season or in November when the team was lights out ??

man your avatar game is strong

 

[Dekes For Days]

I mean in terms of top 6 capability, there have been three weaknesses in the team since dubas took over, top 4 LHD and RHD, and 2LW. He had the options for 2LW with johnsson and maybe kapanen but they didn’t fit with our cap structure so we dealt them, got amirov who unfortunately got sick, johnsson got us a guy who may start contributing in the bottom six. Dubas addressed the top 4dman beautifully, trading for muzzin and getting Brodie. Muzzin should now be replaced by one of Sandin or Liljegren and Brodie should too.

Dubas hasn’t been able to trade for that 2LW, he hasn’t been able to sign that 2LW, and he hasn’t been able to draft a 2LW. Maybe it’s unfair expectations I’ve placed on him to draft a guy who should be in our top 6 or in the mix for it, but I feel most teams have a guy or two who’s real gems from later rounds.

The team Dubas took over had a lot more weaknesses than just those 3, and Dubas has brought in a number of LWs at or above the level of Johnsson/Kapanen over the years. The issue is that's not enough for a lot of people, but I think we need to differentiate between want and need. A high-quality 2LW is a want. We are still a top-tier team and have an effective, high-quality 2nd line without it.

This is a cap world. No team is perfect in every single spot on the roster. Beyond that, this is a flat cap world. Teams need to make cap allocation choices, and the fact is that our top-6 Cs and RWs make top-6 LW not as big of a concern as other areas of the roster.

And I don't really get where the drafting comes into this. We have a number of prospects (even LWs) with top-6 potential, but if you were expecting a high-quality LW from late 2nd-7th round picks within 4 years of being drafted, I think your expectations were maybe a little off. Funny thing is, even though that shouldn't be expectation, we may even have that in Knies, if not Robertson (who, I think a lot of people forget only recently turned 21, after losing a lot of development time to Covid and injuries).

As for your first point, staying par for the course is also just as pointless as suggesting change for the sake of change.

That's not true at all. Of course there's a point. You keep the GM because he's done an excellent job building a consistent, top-tier team through extremely difficult situations. You keep the core because Matthews/Marner/Nylander fall in the "almost impossible to improve on impact relative to cap hit" category, and Tavares and Rielly fall into the "difficult to improve on impact relative to cap hit" and "have NMC" categories. They've also been the least of our worries in the playoffs.

Change for the sake of change is just introducing chaos that will likely lead us further from a cup, in order to satiate feelings.

We’ve witnessed so many undesirable outcomes, in a row that it can’t just be due to pointless. Maybe it is frustration, but not being able to get over the hump for this many years makes me worry that if we do get over the first round, the only thing waiting is the second round.

I don't know why you'd be scared of the second round. It's really no different from the first round.
Top-tier teams? Seen 'em multiple times in the 1st round.
Cup finalist? Seen 'em multiple times in the 1st round.
Goalies with exploding trophy cases putting up the best goaltending performances in the league? Seen 'em multiple times in the 1st round.
When we "break through", the sky is the limit, because despite the "undesirable outcomes", we have a great team that has performed a lot better in the playoffs than the outcomes - largely driven by a significant goaltending disparity - may suggest.

 

[Ashdown2]

no shit sherlock

 

[Aashir Mallik]

The team Dubas took over had a lot more weaknesses than just those 3, and Dubas has brought in a number of LWs at or above the level of Johnsson/Kapanen over the years. The issue is that's not enough for a lot of people, but I think we need to differentiate between want and need. A high-quality 2LW is a want. We are still a top-tier team and have an effective, high-quality 2nd line without it.

I thinks it’s fair to say he has brought guys in around johnsson level, but I don’t think we’ve gotten better than them. All the 2LW we play are middle six quality. Moreover, bringing in a 2LW doesn’t mean we get a high-end LW, he doesn’t even necessarily need to be as good as bunting was last year, but I think getting a 20-25 goal scoring winger for that line is the closest thing to a need this team has. Funnily enough, that guy could potentially be jarnkrok, but if it isn’t, then I do think a good top 6 LW for the Tavares line is a need, if you don’t think so we can just agree to disagree on that point

And I don't really get where the drafting comes into this. We have a number of prospects (even LWs) with top-6 potential, but if you were expecting a high-quality LW from late 2nd-7th round picks within 4 years of being drafted, I think your expectations were maybe a little off. Funny thing is, even though that shouldn't be expectation, we may even have that in Knies, if not Robertson (who, I think a lot of people forget only recently turned 21, after losing a lot of development time to Covid and injuries).

I guess that is fair, my viewpoint is probably skewed because of the 2016-2017 drafts that I think this, those drafts have been around 6-7 years ago and we have nothing outside of 3 guys who played nhl games for us, but that isn’t dubas’s fault. Still, it would be nice to hit on a late round pick like how some other teams have. But can’t blame dubas for Hunter

That's not true at all. Of course there's a point. You keep the GM because he's done an excellent job building a consistent, top-tier team through extremely difficult situations. You keep the core because Matthews/Marner/Nylander fall in the "almost impossible to improve on impact relative to cap hit" category, and Tavares and Rielly fall into the "difficult to improve on impact relative to cap hit" and "have NMC" categories. They've also been the least of our worries in the playoffs.

Change for the sake of change is just introducing chaos that will likely lead us further from a cup, in order to satiate feelings.

I don't know why you'd be scared of the second round. It's really no different from the first round.
Top-tier teams? Seen 'em multiple times in the 1st round.
Cup finalist? Seen 'em multiple times in the 1st round.
Goalies with exploding trophy cases putting up the best goaltending performances in the league? Seen 'em multiple times in the 1st round.
When we "break through", the sky is the limit, because despite the "undesirable outcomes", we have a great team that has performed a lot better in the playoffs than the outcomes - largely driven by a significant goaltending disparity - may suggest.

Change for the sake of change does introduce chaos, but that isn’t necessarily going to lead us away from the cup. Can it? Yea sure, but it can also be the catalyst to push this group over the top.

Also my fear of the second round is what’s happening right now happens then too. We fall into a Washington situation of getting stuck in the second round.

 

[Teeder Keon]

Thank you sir, I would have paid to see all the puzzled faces that didn't "get" that joke

A few of us are in this twisted twilight zone with you brotha
A very very select few
Go Leafs Go!!!!!!!
If it wasn’t for this forbidden zone , the rest of it wouldn’t be palatable at all …

 

[therealkoho]

A few of us are in this twisted twilight zone with you brotha
A very very select few
Go Leafs Go!!!!!!!
If it wasn’t for this forbidden zone , the rest of it wouldn’t be palatable at all …

 

[Dekes For Days]

I thinks it’s fair to say he has brought guys in around johnsson level, but I don’t think we’ve gotten better than them. All the 2LW we play are middle six quality. Moreover, bringing in a 2LW doesn’t mean we get a high-end LW, he doesn’t even necessarily need to be as good as bunting was last year, but I think getting a 20-25 goal scoring winger for that line is the closest thing to a need this team has. Funnily enough, that guy could potentially be jarnkrok, but if it isn’t, then I do think a good top 6 LW for the Tavares line is a need, if you don’t think so we can just agree to disagree on that point

If the criteria is just a 20-25 goal winger, we had Bunting, Mikyehev, and Kase pacing for 24, 32, and 23 goals respectively last year. And while not a big goal-scorer, we also had Kerfoot putting up 51 points. All guys brought in by Dubas. I would agree that 2LW or maybe 3C is probably our biggest need at the moment, but that says more about our lack of actual needs, because it's very much a want, that may even have an internal solution by the end of the year. I think we tend to overestimate how good other team's 6th best top-six player actually is. I do think Jarnkrok fit decently there, and it sounds like he's back, so we'll get to test that out.

I guess that is fair, my viewpoint is probably skewed because of the 2016-2017 drafts that I think this, those drafts have been around 6-7 years ago and we have nothing outside of 3 guys who played nhl games for us, but that isn’t dubas’s fault. Still, it would be nice to hit on a late round pick like how some other teams have. But can’t blame dubas for Hunter

The 2016 and 2017 drafts were indeed not very good beyond the 1st round. Which certainly gave us some roadblocks, as we graduated so much of our prospect pool in 2016, then we didn't replenish it, and then we hit a multi-year flat cap where teams need cheap depth, but the cheap depth that should have been graduating from those years didn't exist.

Change for the sake of change does introduce chaos, but that isn’t necessarily going to lead us away from the cup. Can it? Yea sure, but it can also be the catalyst to push this group over the top.

If you're already a top team, introducing chaos usually doesn't end well. How is whatever change going to lead us closer to the cup? What specifically is it going to address and alter, and how will that help change the outcomes in the playoffs? Because all I see are people pointing at things that don't have much to do with the reason we've lost, and expecting sacrificing those best parts of our team to magically fix everything...

Also my fear of the second round is what’s happening right now happens then too. We fall into a Washington situation of getting stuck in the second round.

But there's nothing in the second round that's scarier than what we've experienced in the first round, so if we break through that barrier, then we've broken through that barrier for every round.