Pavelec
Honestly not that bad... I'd say 2/3 goals weren't really on him. You want your goalie to make those saves every once-in-a-while (which he hasn't) but you can't expect your goalie to make those saves. Yes, this is coming from one of the harshest Pavelec critics on this board. Honestly Pavelec has played great in some games this season (BOS, WSH, PIT) and out-right terrible in others (OTT, MTL, FLOx2, TBL). This was really middle in the road; sometimes you aren't going to get good bounces. Basically what I'm saying is most of the excuses people used on me to defend Pavelec against me actually apply to this game (for once). I don't really blame D much either (get into later).
I'll say it one more time in bold:
Pavelec has had some piss-poor games but last night wasn't one of them
Side note:
No more of this defensive game improves goalies stuff... Tippet and Hitchcock are known for being the best defensive coaches and are praised for their ability to improve goalies... Guess what..
They've improved goalies only by 0.004 sv% (Hitchcock) and 0.006 sv% (Tippet)... That's about 5-6 goals against a season for a starter. SV% is almost exclusively on the goalie when looking at a large enough spread (10+ random games I'd say is safe)
Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler
NAME
|
Corsi
|
P/60
|
TeamSh%
|
TeamSv%
Kane | 1.23 | 1.64 | 7.06 | .829
Jokinen |-0.87 | 0.43 | 6.33 | .836
Wheeler |-0.87 | 2.61 | 8.45 | .794
Those guys couldn't buy a goal last night and sounds like Noel will break them up, too bad because this was the first time since Washington that this line actually sustained pressure on the other team and out-chanced their opponents in dominate fashion (Fenwick Kane +13, Joki +9, Wheeler +12). 13 SOG from this line last night. For those that think this line isn't scoring enough, realize that Kane and Wheeler are scoring at somewhat regular paces for their ice-time as you'd both want and expect (Kane a little under and Wheeler a little over). Unfortunately Jokinen can't say the same as his 0.43 points per 60 mins at even strength is about 1/3 of his usual looking at the last two seasons, but the Jets' have only scored on 6% of shots while he's on the ice which is lower than you'd expect or normal so puck luck may have a play with that. Their poor +/- aren't very indicative of their play as they've had some of the leagues worst goaltending behind them with Pavelec/Montoya having some terrible sv%... seriously, looking at guys who played 8+ games Wheeler is 3rd, Kane is 12th, Jokinen is 18th and Enstrom is 27th for worse goaltending behind them. While I don't feel that we can blame last game's loss on the goalies, the Jets' poor play in the last 5 games before that I will and I think that stat shows something.
Ladd-Burmistrov-Little
NAME
|
Corsi
|
P/60
|
TeamSh%
|
TeamSv%
Ladd | 8.21 | 2.05 | 10.13 | .909
Little | 2.10 | 1.68 | 9.72 | .932
Burmistrov |13.12 | 0.91 | 6.78 | .943
OK possession game while facing against the top lines (Fenwick Ladd +0, Burmistrov +4, Little +2) but not as good as normal. Only 3 SOG but at least Ladd's tip turned into a goal. Ladd is on an improved scoring pace from last season, as is Little. Burmistrov's scoring has gone down, even though he is producing more chances and quality shots than last season; just like Jokinen, Jets' only score on 6-7% of shots when he's on the ice and is due some more points. Maybe a swap in centres between the two lines could ignite the two, although - as previously noted by Sweech - part of it could be system as Noel's 5v5 style does suppress 5v5 C scoring. I could see some value with that if Noel wants a shake up, since Burmistrov brings a lot more possession to Kane and Wheeler and Ladd-Little could spark Jokinen.
Ponikarovsky-Antropov-Wellwood
NAME
|
Corsi
|
P/60
|
TeamSh%
|
TeamSv%
Ponikarovsky | 2.13 | 0.53 | 4.65 | .956
Antropov |-0.93 | 0.93 | 5.88 | .925
Wellwood |15.59 | 0.65 | 7.14 | .943
Not a great game for these guys, although they started off well from my eyes but then fell (Fenwick Wellwood -2, Ponikarovsky -3, Antropov -3). Bad penalty from Ponikarovsky too, with him and Thorburn being the only two Jets' who have taken more penalties than they've drawn. Ponikarovsky also missed the net 3 times, as all three of these guys can't seem to buy any points especially Poni + Antro. Kind of the opposite of Pavelec, where usually these guys have played well but luck hasn't gone their way but this game was bad.
Wright-Slater-Thorburn
NAME
|
Corsi
|
P/60
|
TeamSh%
|
TeamSv%
Wright | -3.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | .923
Slater |-10.19 | 1.46 | 10.34 | .941
Thorburn |-15.87 | 0.84 | 3.57 | .941
Meh... It's a 4th line, they rarely own possession and last night wasn't much different (Fenwick Wright -2, Slater -1, Thorburn -3). Thankfully they've been not as bad as GST, although more for the lack of tough match-ups then talent shift.
Enstrom-Hainsey
NAME
|
Corsi
|
P/60
|
TeamSv%
Enstrom |-4.58 | 1.96 | .852
Hainsey |-15.62 | 0.34 | .934
Last night wasn't too bad for these guys (Fenwick Enstrom +1, Hainsey +3). I feel bad for both as they are constantly being shelled as Noel tries to shelter the other 4 defensemen. I feel bad for Enstrom as he's paired with a guy being asked to do more than he should, and I feel bad for Hainsey because he's being asked to do more than he should. The one nice note is Enstrom is scoring at 5v5 at a pace for an average 1st line forward... haha
Stuart-Redmond
NAME
|
Corsi
|
P/60
|
TeamSv%
Redmond | 6.67 | 0.89 | .875
Stuart |-0.00 | 0.37 | .931
Overall great game for this line (Fenwick Stuart +5, Redmond +6). I think Redmond and Postma will probably split time being #6 on Stuart's side once everyone is healthy. This success of them on the second pair indicates that this will be a nice pair to have on a little more sheltered 3rd pair. If anything, these games are indications that we should be feeling pretty good about our D core AFTER Bogosian and Byfuglien return.
Clitsome-Postma
NAME
|
Corsi
|
P/60
|
TeamSv%
Postma | 17.51 | 1.42 | .895
Clitsome | 8.68 | 1.02 | .894
Postma had a few errors in that game and the pair didn't do that well for the amount of sheltering they received (Fenwick Postma +2, Clitsome +1). I don't really get too angry at Postma and Redmond make rookie mistakes, as they are rookies and should be expected to play as such (and evaluated as such), but nobody gets a free ride. So far Clitsome (who had a decent game yesterday, not exceptional, but decent) has been the weaker of the 3 fighting for the #6 once Bogosian and Byfuglien return.
Summary and Future
It's been a comedy of errors. Our D-core has been decimated to a crippling point. Our goalies have been extremely sub-par (except Pavelec's three strong games (BOS, WSH, PIT) and one average game (TOR)). If you remove special teams and goalie sv% we've been a lower end playoff team, which is both negative and positive thought. It's negative because the PP seems to just be ridiculously sad in how inept it is; they can't gain simple zone entry, sustain pressure, or get enough shots on the net that we should expect our PP to be successful longterm (some say hey it's normally this good % wise so won't drop, realize the shots and zone entry weren't this bad those times... I don't think it will stay like that though with Buff/Bogo return). It's positive because the PK hasn't actually been as bad as the results (almost equally opposite as the PP hasn't been nearly as good as the results) as there have been very few shots against and even less quality shots against, but negative factor of goaltending appears here. It's negative because our goaltending may not improve, although I'm of the mindset that as much as I don't think of Pavelec as average-or-above-average goalie he can't be this bad... And finally, it's positive because we're missing two very important pieces who do a lot of heavy lifting for this team in Byfuglien and Bogosian, and realistically we cannot be worse with them than without them.
<EDIT>
Bonus Extra, Bad Luck Unsustainable
IMHO:
*There's no way Pavelec can sustainably be as bad as he was in his poor games (OTT, MTL, FLOx2, TBL)
*There's no way the PK can sustainably stay as bad as it has been with the current ability to repress shots and shot quality that it has been (and that poor PK SV% has to come up eventually)
*There's no way Jokinen, Burmistrov, Ponikarovsky, Wellwood, and Antropov can continue to create so many scoring chances with so few point
*There's no way that adding Bogosian and Byfuglien into the current mix wouldn't substantially improve things