News Article: Lawless Calling Out 5 Key Players Of The "Atlanta Association"

[Holden Caulfield]

The NHL roster. I think the organizational depth is improving pretty nicely in terms of our prospect system.

It's not like it's that huge a difference.

Lipon, Kichton, Lowry, Kosmachuk, Comrie, Petan, Kostalek, Lodge are all basically equivalent to Machacek, Postma, Cormier, O'Dell, Pasquale, Burmistrov, Kulda, Telegin when the team was acquired. Just because most of those players busted doesn't mean much. Probably 3-5 of the first 8 mentioned don't play any significant role with the Jets.

It's better, but it's not like it's the million miles better like some people would have us believe.

 

[garret9]

It's not like it's that huge a difference.

Lipon, Kichton, Lowry, Kosmachuk, Comrie, Petan, Kostalek, Lodge are all basically equivalent to Machacek, Postma, Cormier, O'Dell, Pasquale, Burmistrov, Kulda, Telegin when the team was acquired. Just because most of those players busted doesn't mean much. Probably 3-5 of the first 8 mentioned don't play any significant role with the Jets.

It's better, but it's not like it's the million miles better like some people would have us believe.

I know you compared mostly using style and your eyes... but interestingly their offensive stats on a few of those compare very closely. (Not all, also going off of memory not actually checking).

 

[jetkarma*]

Sometimes the best moves are ones you don't make.

Of course I want Cheveldayoff to make positive roster moves to better the team but not really fixated that he had to or has to make a major trade.move by a certain deadline. I think you increase the chance for making a mistake if you do that. I sense he is not adverse to a significant move(s) but is confident enough to wait until he gets that more in his favour.

I am ok with that if he continues build solid to very good organizational depth. We did add Scheifele , Trouba , Frolik and Ellerby who I personally see as positives for the long(er) term.

Hard to be patient , but prefer that to reacting and not being in as strong a position as we are.

We made a fairly big FA play for Jokinen , if we did that for an older player is it that hard to think we make a bigger play for a younger more significant FA this year? I don't think that is a stretch .

Cogliano would be a nice fit as middle 6 player and seems to be the type of player Cheveldayoff would be in play for , like he was for Frolik.

Yeah , I want some things we can point to as well , but I do think this is being done well , just there is no magic wand and we have not stagnated or stepped back in the overall picture imo .

 

[jetkarma*]

It's not like it's that huge a difference.

Lipon, Kichton, Lowry, Kosmachuk, Comrie, Petan, Kostalek, Lodge are all basically equivalent to Machacek, Postma, Cormier, O'Dell, Pasquale, Burmistrov, Kulda, Telegin when the team was acquired. Just because most of those players busted doesn't mean much. Probably 3-5 of the first 8 mentioned don't play any significant role with the Jets.

It's better, but it's not like it's the million miles better like some people would have us believe.

Disagree with this outlook , nothing is given granted , but we have to let those players play out.

If three of those become mid 6 players , and better mid 6 ones , that is significant. Plus tthere are some assets still from the previous group that either can still perhaps be productive here or be turned into assets.

Logic is the more b level or non premium prospects or draft choices you have , the greater your chance that one or more become an a level player. You hit on just one , you make a major improvement. I personally like the chance we do that with our current group and believe this is the way Cheveldayoff will continue to build the organization.

 

[surixon]

You don't NEED lottery picks BUT it exponentially improves your chances that it works.

The Trouba example is an exception not the rule. It is unwise to build a strategy on low probabilities.

I get what you are saying but its not like tanking guarantees you anything either as we have seen with Florida, Edmonton and the Islanders.

I was simply trying to say that there are opportunity costs to every move. Moving Buff may have given us the opportunity to draft higher the last few years, but not moving him has given us in my opinion the opportunity to appreciate his value and sell high. Given that we have drafted a top end talent in Trouba during the span and are now in a better value proposition with regards to trading Buff. I feel that we will ultimately come out ahead from a talent perspective when Buff is actually dealt.

As for strategy, I don't see anything wrong with an asset maximization strategy which is what I think Chevy is going for.

We have less holes to plug now and can specifically target a few key areas on a Buff trade. We will also have cap space to spend on quality depth assets next off season. I think Chevy has positioned himself quite well for this summer.

Having said that if things stay the status quo then I will also jump accross gorge to the other side.

 

[Guerzy]

It's not like it's that huge a difference.

Lipon, Kichton, Lowry, Kosmachuk, Comrie, Petan, Kostalek, Lodge are all basically equivalent to Machacek, Postma, Cormier, O'Dell, Pasquale, Burmistrov, Kulda, Telegin when the team was acquired. Just because most of those players busted doesn't mean much. Probably 3-5 of the first 8 mentioned don't play any significant role with the Jets.

It's better, but it's not like it's the million miles better like some people would have us believe.

Seriously? Mother of god Holden the Atlanta system in 2011 was a complete joke. Laughable. We'll have to disagree. I don't even get overly high on prospects given the amount that don't pan out, but what we've got as a whole today is BEYOND better than Atlanta 2011.

Add in Trouba seeing as he is just a rookie, even Scheifele. I count these kids because they are so young that they are in the mix with the rest of our prospects as our potential future. Morrissey too as he is in the pipeline. Lowry looks like he could be a 3rd line forward, maybe 2nd line complimentary player (tho i doubt it). Most say O'Dell has 3rd line scoring potential. Lipon likely just a checking line forward. Kosmachuk has top 6-9 potential. Lodge top 6-9 potential. Comrie looks like a solid goaltender prospect. Petan has top end offensive skill by the looks of it, perhaps a top 6 forward projection wise. Etc.

Even in 2011 my opinion is/was Machacek, Maxwell, Cormier, Klingberg, Kulda were bottom end prospects. I never believed in any of them to amount to much. Mostly AHL'ers here.

In terms of a system, prospects, potential, estimates and projections given what we know today, this system as a whole is leaps and bounds better than the one that presented itself in 2011.

Compare it to others around the league, it's not to shabby. Some may make it, others clearly will not, thats just how it goes. But comparing our organizations young players/potential to that of 2011... there is no damn comparison.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Seriously? Mother of god Holden the Atlanta system in 2011 was a complete joke. Laughable. We'll have to disagree. I don't even get overly high on prospects given the amount that don't pan out, but what we've got as a whole today is BEYOND better than Atlanta 2011.

Add in Trouba seeing as he is just a rookie, even Scheifele. Morrissey too as he is in the pipeline. Lowry looks like he could be a 3rd line forward, maybe 2nd line complimentary player (tho i doubt it). Most say O'Dell has 3rd line scoring potential. Lipon likely just a checking line forward. Kosmachuk has top 6-9 potential. Lodge top 6-9 potential. Comrie looks like a solid goaltender prospect. Petan has top end offensive skill by the looks of it, perhaps a top 6 forward projection wise. Etc.

Even in 2011 my opinion is/was Machacek, Maxwell, Cormier, Klingberg, Kulda were bottom end prospects. I never believed in any of them to amount to much. Mostly AHL'ers here.

In terms of a system, prospects, potential, estimates and projections given what we know today, this system as a whole is leaps and bounds better than the one that presented itself in 2011.

Compare it to others around the league, it's not to shabby. Some may make it, others clearly will not, thats just how it goes.

Which comparaison is not apt.

Lipon v Machacek = Both 3rd round picks who projected to gritty 3rd line guys with some offensive potential. Machacek had 3 straight 20 goal AHL seasons. Lipon is currently on pace for 11 goals, 31pts in rookie AHL season (23g, 48pts for Mach). What's difference? If anything Machacek was a higher potential player as the "C" on a Mem Cup team.

Kichton v Postma = Basically clones. These has been shown several times, they have almost identical developement (Kichton this year is same age as Postma 2nd year in AHL)

Lowry v Cormier = Cormier was a 2nd v Lowry's 3rd. Cormier was the captain of Team Canada WJC, Lowry never made it. Both big strong twoway centres, Lowry showed more offense in 19 year old year. Real close though.

Kosmachuk v O'Dell = Both scoring players in junior game. Both have slight question marks with skating. Both are considered top 9 or bust players in an offensive role. Similiar stats all the way through.

Comrie v Pasquale = Pasquale got better every year in junior, well regarded goalie coming out junior. Comrie still appears to have the advantage with what seems to be higher potential, but in 2011 Pasquale for sure had legit starter potnetial.

Petan v Burmistrov = Both smaller prolific scoring players with unreal hands. Burmistrov in 2011 much higher regarded than Petan 2013 though.

Kostalek v Kulda = Both smooth skating positioning first pass defensive defensemen. Both projected to be safe bottom pairing defensemen with perhaps middle pairing potential as safe players.

Lodge v Telegin = Both are good junior scoring players. Not much known past that.

All are pretty much equivalent. We still have a few of the 2011 players though. And added a few other players like Morrissey, Trouba. It's better. It's not like it's miles better, we won't know that until we start seeing some results of it.

But really the Thrashers would have added those top picks anyways right? People like to talk about how much better we are doing than the Thrashers. I am not seeing it by any means.

 

[Guerzy]

All fine comparables, but the trump card for me is still having our last 3 1st rounders in Scheifele, Trouba and Morrissey. Who knows what Atlanta would have done with those picks? Those guys count too. You can't just disregard them to fit your "comparables argument".

I see a better system after three drafts, all things considered. We can agree to disagree.

 

[winterpeg]

All fine comparables, but the trump card for me is still having our last 3 1st rounders in Scheifele, Trouba and Morrissey. Who knows what Atlanta would have done with those picks? Those guys count too. You can't just disregard them to fit your "comparables argument".

I see a better system after three drafts, all things considered. We can agree to disagree.

Agree on this one. If you don't include those guys you can't include Burmi either in the Atlanta analysis.

 

[jetkarma*]

There are some players missing from the list and judging by the recent efforts we will try to emulate the pattern from last year.

Everyone agrees the draft is an inexact science or a crap shoot or not a guarantee , call it whatever you like . The fact is if you are competent , let alone above that , the more picks you have the number that turn out positive is higher and the chance to hit an impact or two or three from non elite picks also does.

This isn't rocket science, if you have a scouting staff that is a plus and a GM that is astute you can really improve your results by drafting more players. Another sport I know but Jimmy Johnson was widely credited as a draft genuis , a guru. While he was good to be sure , what really paved his success was the principle I mentioned... MORE PICKS .

He got a lot of players that led to Super Bowls and led another team close to being a factor for that before extenuating circumstances came into play. He missed on lots too , but because he basically had 3 to 5 extra picks for a series of years , those missed were not a real issue because he hit on (roughly) 50% of them. Some of those impacted much more than their draft slot.

Again , different sport I know , but I can be pretty emphatic saying Cheveldayoff didn't just fall into last years draft , I am quite positive we try to do similar this year and future years. Maybe not the exact numbers each year but the goal will be there.

Pair that with having your premium picks become premium players and you have reason to be optimistic imo . The kids looked GREAT tonight , they really did , if Morrissey is at their level next year or the year after we have something cooking when you add all the other picks into the mix imo .

 

[Gm0ney]

Agree on this one. If you don't include those guys you can't include Burmi either in the Atlanta analysis.

So to extend the comparison then, it's Kane = Scheifele, Bogo = Trouba, Burmi = Morrissey. Which leaves Petan with no Atlanta analogue. All in all, pretty similar...we're just hoping more of the new guys pan out.

 

[Guerzy]

So to extend the comparison then, it's Kane = Scheifele, Bogo = Trouba, Burmi = Morrissey. Which leaves Petan with no Atlanta analogue. All in all, pretty similar...we're just hoping more of the new guys pan out.

Not really fair comparables at all. Kane was entering his third season in year one in Winnipeg, Bogosian his fourth, Burmistrov his second.

At least Scheifele and Trouba are still rookies, heck many didn't know if they would be in the NHL or AHL at this point in the year. Morrissey is still playing Junior.

 

[Positive]

This isn't rocket science, if you have a scouting staff that is a plus and a GM that is astute you can really improve your results by drafting more players.

Actually it's probably harder than rocket science. There are probably more rocket scientists (and brain surgeons) in the world than NHL-worthy general managers.

 

[truck]

The Atlanta Five had a great game tonight... and the Jets still lost and looked inconsistent.

Why?

Because the rest of the team sucks.

 

[BigZ65]

The Atlanta Five had a great game tonight... and the Jets still lost and looked inconsistent.

Why?

Because the rest of the team sucks.

I guess if you ignore the goals against caused by horrible plays. Elite D Byfuglien gets turned inside out by Duchene, 2-1 Jets before the end of the 1st. Wheeler commits a horrible turnover just inside the blueline, gets beat back down the ice by MacKinnon, 3-2 Avs. If that's a great game, we're beyond screwed.

Wheeler looks way better on the PP with Schiefele, but the other PP line was same old, same old, with 80% of the Atlanta 5, but we ended up with more shots and scoring chances, moral victory.

 

[jetkarma*]

Actually it's probably harder than rocket science. There are probably more rocket scientists (and brain surgeons) in the world than NHL-worthy general managers.

That aspect is true ( less GM's ) but the premise to maximize your benefit isn't .

This plan has been used by multiple teams with success in several sports.

You can't count on every pick working or working out very well to be sure. If you have good scouts , good scouting systems and a very good GM to manage it all and work the draft and acquisitions it actually is pretty simple. Get more picks at the best value you can and manipulate picks like Cheveldayoff did last year and you are more than likely to get much better than average results.

Last year we traded this year's 2nd for Seto . So we used a future asset for a current one. If Seto works or worked out well , he wanted to sign , we wanted to sign him , that is a good trade and wise use of an asset.

If he doesn't work out or we don't want to sign him or feel we can't we should fairly easily be able to trade him for a 2nd this year at the deadline imo , and maybe add say a future 4th. Little risk in that scenario as I see it.

We have several fringe players we can see if other teams are willing to pay for at the deadline such as what we did with Oduya and lots of teams also do. Get 2 to 4 more picks , work the draft and again you increase the chances of getting future productive players . You don't need to count on a higher percentage working out , to build your organizational depth.

If you do this , again you have a higher chance one ( or more ) will dramatically out perform his acquisition cost . Big bonus.

Then once you have loaded your system you have assets that you can use to get the better prospect in a trade. You become the team that can make that 3 or 4 player for 1 trade.

 

[truck]

I guess if you ignore the goals against caused by horrible plays. Elite D Byfuglien gets turned inside out by Duchene, 2-1 Jets before the end of the 1st. Wheeler commits a horrible turnover just inside the blueline, gets beat back down the ice by MacKinnon, 3-2 Avs. If that's a great game, we're beyond screwed.

Wheeler looks way better on the PP with Schiefele, but the other PP line was same old, same old, with 80% of the Atlanta 5, but we ended up with more shots and scoring chances, moral victory.

No moral victory. This is getting plain demoralizing.

 

[ps241]

Which comparaison is not apt.

Lipon v Machacek = Both 3rd round picks who projected to gritty 3rd line guys with some offensive potential. Machacek had 3 straight 20 goal AHL seasons. Lipon is currently on pace for 11 goals, 31pts in rookie AHL season (23g, 48pts for Mach). What's difference? If anything Machacek was a higher potential player as the "C" on a Mem Cup team.

Kichton v Postma = Basically clones. These has been shown several times, they have almost identical developement (Kichton this year is same age as Postma 2nd year in AHL)

Lowry v Cormier = Cormier was a 2nd v Lowry's 3rd. Cormier was the captain of Team Canada WJC, Lowry never made it. Both big strong twoway centres, Lowry showed more offense in 19 year old year. Real close though.

Kosmachuk v O'Dell = Both scoring players in junior game. Both have slight question marks with skating. Both are considered top 9 or bust players in an offensive role. Similiar stats all the way through.

Comrie v Pasquale = Pasquale got better every year in junior, well regarded goalie coming out junior. Comrie still appears to have the advantage with what seems to be higher potential, but in 2011 Pasquale for sure had legit starter potnetial.

Petan v Burmistrov = Both smaller prolific scoring players with unreal hands. Burmistrov in 2011 much higher regarded than Petan 2013 though.

Kostalek v Kulda = Both smooth skating positioning first pass defensive defensemen. Both projected to be safe bottom pairing defensemen with perhaps middle pairing potential as safe players.

Lodge v Telegin = Both are good junior scoring players. Not much known past that.

All are pretty much equivalent. We still have a few of the 2011 players though. And added a few other players like Morrissey, Trouba. It's better. It's not like it's miles better, we won't know that until we start seeing some results of it.

But really the Thrashers would have added those top picks anyways right? People like to talk about how much better we are doing than the Thrashers. I am not seeing it by any means.

Not unfair but one group is getting baked in the mid day sun and the other group are just getting going. O'Dell still has legs....Spencer 95% done as an NHL'er....Telegin was talented but a head case and ripped the shoot......Postma will be 25 in a couple of months and might have blood clout issues....Burmi I like but woulda coulda shoulda now.....Kulda looks the the NHL dream could be done. Cormier I have always liked but the sun is setting there as well as far as him being anything past a 4th line NHL centre.

Now allot of this could happen with the current crop of comps but if 2 or 3 make the parent club then that is a significant difference in the end result....time will tell but the new group can't do much worse as far as making noise in the NHL.

 

[Huffer]

One thing to remember in regards to the prospects, is that the AHL environment is night and day better with the Ice Caps, compared to the terrible system that was setup with the Wolves.

 

[surixon]

One thing to remember in regards to the prospects, is that the AHL environment is night and day better with the Ice Caps, compared to the terrible system that was setup with the Wolves.

Yup, drafting is only half the battle. We will now see if TNSE can develop better than Atlanta did.

Early returns look good with regards to Trouba and Scheifele, but there is still much to be determined with our other picks.

 

[KCjetsfan]

Yup, drafting is only half the battle. We will now see if TNSE can develop better than Atlanta did.

Early returns look good with regards to Trouba and Scheifele, but there is still much to be determined with our other picks.

Not sure you can give TNSE credit for developing Trouba.

 

[surixon]

Not sure you can give TNSE credit for developing Trouba.

Why wouldn't you? Behind the scenes our development team will be working hard with both kids this year.

Moreover events like the development camps help prospects out. I believe it was also the Jets team that advised both Trouba and Scheifele to go to Roberts camp last Summer. It may not be seen but our prospects are in constant touch with the team during the year and are given directions. For instance the Jets asked Comrie to play more out of the crease this year.

So while the a great deal of credit goes to Trouba and his college and other coaches, the Jets will have played a very active role in shaping him as well.

 

[truck]

Not sure you can give TNSE credit for developing Trouba.

Nope and drafting remains way more important than the how of development. You can't milk a stone afterall.

 

[Tintin's Ghost]

So after watching last night's game, Noel is going to rip the Association a new one , right? Because they cannot stifle the opponent when we have the lead and just dump and chase ad nauseam until the final buzzer goes, right? Sure glad we have Noel to smarten up the Association...what a bunch of dummys, amirite? Imagine the success Noel could have without all these professionals getting in his way!

 

[DrJenniferHanson]

One thing to remember in regards to the prospects, is that the AHL environment is night and day better with the Ice Caps, compared to the terrible system that was setup with the Wolves.

This cannot be understated. The Jets have a firm grasp in the development of prospects with the IceCaps. It takes years for those results to rise to the surface, but a great culture in the Jets-IceCaps pipeline was coronated.

Compare that to the Thrashers-Wolves relationship. The Wolves organization was always adamant about acquiring older studs year-in, year-out. The Wolves put up with a lot more local competition for the Entertainment dollar, and had to go every measure for wins. The Thrashers had little-to-no-say. That concern is not even on the radar in St. John's.