Las Vegas Better Than Expected?

[BattleBorn]

Lifted this from the NHL Talk Board, figured it would be a little more interesting to us than the general HFB population. An article from Larry Fisher at TheHockeyWriters.com

His original post follows:

What could the inaugural Las Vegas roster look like? Which players are your favourite teams likely protecting or exposing? I created a lineup through a mock expansion draft and it's better than you might expect:

http://thehockeywriters.com/mock-expansion-draft-las-vegas-lineup-better-than-expected/

Click to read more...

 

[HanSolo]

I doubt Colorado would protect Varlamov over Pickard but that could change. Don't like the Arizona pick, doubt Fowler remains on Anaheim's roster, I think Yakupov might not make it to the expansion draft (think he'll be traded and another team may protect him), still don't like Dustin Brown as a pick (he's not worth 6.5 million dollars), I'd love to grab Zucker from Minnesota and I'd love it if they leave him unprotected but there's a chance they won't, don't like the Puempel pick, I think I'd prefer Derrick Pouilot to Trevor Daley.

Seems pretty heavy on youth but not bad overall. They just need one "it" player to make it all work. I liked the idea of trading for Ben Bishop's rights. I would think Vegas could certainly afford him.

 

[HanSolo]

I think another thing to consider is Vegas will have to take a certain amount of players who are on two way contracts or risk having to put a bunch of players on waivers who don't make the cut.

 

[BattleBorn]

I think another thing to consider is Vegas will have to take a certain amount of players who are on two way contracts or risk having to put a bunch of players on waivers who don't make the cut.

That's going to be huge, though I figure after the entry draft is done were only going to have 20-22 or so of the expansion players left. I've got a feeling we'll wind up drafting and not signing a few, drafting a few for the sold purpose of trading them in pre-constructed trades, etc.

I'm reading a book on the last expansion now, I'll have more brilliant ideas stolen from other people in the coming days. I seriously don't remember the last expansions, though.

 

[nobody important]

First, I have to wonder why anyone would go to the trouble of doing this analysis a full year before it actually happens. So much can change in a year. Trades, long term injuries, performance increases and decreases will all play a part in the final selection of protected and unprotected players. Clearly, some people have too much time on their hands. I also think he's made some flat out weird picks, and he even seems to acknowledge that some of his choices are questionable.

As for his pick from the Jets, I would be rolling on the floor ecstatic with glee* if LV took Lowry. Hands of stone, and he's already been demoted to the AHL once for not getting with the program. About the only thing saving his buttocks is that we don't have much for quality bottom 6 centers.

* Not to wish ill upon you, but as I've said, Jets are #1.

 

[HanSolo]

Because it's fun?

 

[izzy]

I would hope Buffalo would expose Kane over Girgensens.

Nashville also shouldn't expose their only playoff weapon in Wilson.

Ottawa, if those are the available players LV should go Pageau.

If the Pens and Flyers situations are like that (IF), LV should go with Gudas and take Murray instead of taking Neuvirth and Daley.

That team is gonna have a lot of money to throw at UFAs to hit the floor, be a good year to be a UFA...

And finally, as a blues fan, maybe Jaskin or Rattie can actually have a real roster spot on a new team.

 

[Brew]

I think it's too early to tell who McPhee will be drafting, but when lists are made, I'll be generating a full list of who is available. There will be some nice pieces, but with the shuffling that will be happening, I don't expect a great goalie really. Maybe one of Subban/Rask, Lehtonen/Niemi, who knows at this point for players.

 

[BattleBorn]

First, I have to wonder why anyone would go to the trouble of doing this analysis a full year before it actually happens. ...

We've got a lot of free time between here and the draft. We're going to be seeing a lot of these and while it may be too early now, there's going to be a lot of the same faces available once the time comes.

It's good to see how people are thinking, plus I think it will be great to compare some of these predictions with reality after everything is said and done.

 

[Soundgarden]

I would hope Buffalo would expose Kane over Girgensens.

Nashville also shouldn't expose their only playoff weapon in Wilson.

Wilson will almost certainly be picked by Vegas, I think Poile would even give up a pick if he wants his contract gone or if he doesn't want Jarnkrok picked.

He's just an expensive third liner who picks it up come playoff time.

 

[izzy]

Wilson will almost certainly be picked by Vegas, I think Poile would even give up a pick if he wants his contract gone or if he doesn't want Jarnkrok picked.

He's just an expensive third liner who picks it up come playoff time.

If you are a playoff team and have a player who is an absolute beast come playoff time and has led the team in goals both of their last playoff runs you shouldn't want to expose them because they are overpaid by a few hundred thousand for their regular season performance. It's not like he's a liability during the reg season or Nashville will be in a bad cap situation until his contract is up.

 

[VanIslander]

I went through the article and made an alternative squad, taking someone different from each of the author's picks. The team is built largely on the fact that the GM said he would like to be the first expansion team to make the playoffs in its first year (he is unaware that the expansion Rangers under Lester Patrick were the first NHL expansion team to make the playoffs its first year, thanks to the scouting of Conn Smythe, who surprisingly was fired just before the season began in favor of Patrick).

Benoit Pouliot - Eric Staal - Andrej Nestrasil
Mikhail Grigorenko- Mike Ribeiro - Tommy Wingels
Lars Eller - Antoine Vermette - Eric Fehr
Marcus Foligno - Oscar Lindberg - Alex Chiasson
J-G Pageau - Vladislav Namestnikov - Beau Bennett
Joffrey Lupul - Alexander Burmistrov - Emerson Etem
Ty Rattie

Brian Campbell - Andrei Markov
Simon Despres - Thomas Hickey
Joe Morrow - Johnny Oduya
Radko Gudas - Derek Forbort

Jimmy Howard
James Reimer
Joonas Korpisalo​

The defense is decent, the goaltending too. There is a lot of talented centers available and plenty of quality role-playing left wingers. But for top line wingers and scoring right wingers especially,... the pickings are slim. Either Vegas will take aging Gaborik (over promising dman Forbort or hard-hitting leader Brown) or the author's pick of Colin Wilson and play him on that side or make a trade or free agent signing or two to score from the right side. Getting Kovalchuk out of Russia would give the top line wing a scoring punch!

 

[get25]

Lifted this from the NHL Talk Board, figured it would be a little more interesting to us than the general HFB population. An article from Larry Fisher at TheHockeyWriters.com

His original post follows:

What could the inaugural Las Vegas roster look like? Which players are your favourite teams likely protecting or exposing? I created a lineup through a mock expansion draft and it's better than you might expect:

http://thehockeywriters.com/mock-expansion-draft-las-vegas-lineup-better-than-expected/

Habs fan here:
I expect Radulov to be resigned during the season.

So Habs should protect:
Price, Weber, Petry, Beaulieu, Glachenyuk, Pacioretty, Gallagher, Radulov, Plekanec, Shaw, XXX
XXX is one of Flynn, Byron, DeLaRose, Hudon, Mitchell, Danault, Carr or Andrighetto.
The others will be available.
Andrighetto, Carr, DeLaRose and Danault are the best bet to be XXX.
A lot of these players are waiver eligible so some may leave through waivers.

In defense, Emelin, Pateryn and Barberio will be available but you will get better d-men from other teams if you want young ones. Pateryn and Barberio are good bottom-6 d-men.
Barberio is 25, has 133 NHL games and is a good puck mover.
Pateryn is bigger, more physical and has a good shot.

Goalies: Condon will be available.

Montoya and Desharnais are also going to be UFA.

Markov will also be UFA and will resign in Montreal if he does not retire.
He has signed with us for lower than his market value to stay here.
No need to protect him, no point picking him.

If you can put some of the d-men you pick in AHL to develop, then Emelin could also be a good bet but it is only for a year.
He is, year after year, among top-10 in hits per GP in the league for hits.
Probably top-3 in hits among D-Men since he came in NHL.

 

[Super Cake]

For Ottawa, you forgot about Methot. He will also have to be exposed. Will most likely be picked over any other player the Sens expose.

 

[Charlie Conway]

I think it's too early to tell who McPhee will be drafting, but when lists are made, I'll be generating a full list of who is available. There will be some nice pieces, but with the shuffling that will be happening, I don't expect a great goalie really. Maybe one of Subban/Rask, Lehtonen/Niemi, who knows at this point for players.

Howard wouldn't be a bad pick.

 

[HanSolo]

Habs fan here:
I expect Radulov to be resigned during the season.

So Habs should protect:
Price, Weber, Petry, Beaulieu, Glachenyuk, Pacioretty, Gallagher, Radulov, Plekanec, Shaw, XXX
XXX is one of Flynn, Byron, DeLaRose, Hudon, Mitchell, Danault, Carr or Andrighetto.
The others will be available.
Andrighetto, Carr, DeLaRose and Danault are the best bet to be XXX.
A lot of these players are waiver eligible so some may leave through waivers.

In defense, Emelin, Pateryn and Barberio will be available but you will get better d-men from other teams if you want young ones. Pateryn and Barberio are good bottom-6 d-men.
Barberio is 25, has 133 NHL games and is a good puck mover.
Pateryn is bigger, more physical and has a good shot.

Goalies: Condon will be available.

Montoya and Desharnais are also going to be UFA.

Markov will also be UFA and will resign in Montreal if he does not retire.
He has signed with us for lower than his market value to stay here.
No need to protect him, no point picking him.

If you can put some of the d-men you pick in AHL to develop, then Emelin could also be a good bet but it is only for a year.
He is, year after year, among top-10 in hits per GP in the league for hits.
Probably top-3 in hits among D-Men since he came in NHL.

Knowing Radulov that's being pretty optimistic. If things don't work well there he's very likely to leave. Not that I think he'd come to Vegas but if they threw enough money at him he could be swayed.

 

[Old Guy]

First, I have to wonder why anyone would go to the trouble of doing this analysis a full year before it actually happens. So much can change in a year.

I understand exactly what you are saying. However........................................

From the writers standpoint, he is paid to write. Analyzing an expansion draft accomplishes two things, It provide a unique piece during the summer season when everybody in the world is at their summer cabin (no quotes to obtain). Second, it gets clicks, eyeballs, and crates a discussion. That's what writers hope to achieve.

But the bigger thing is, if I was McPhee, I would have my first staff member or an insider of the owner do exactly this same exercise. Yes, they are getting paid to do it (same as the writer), but this is the most important thing he can be doing.

Then once camps open, the PTO contracts are handed out, guys sign in Europe and everything else, I would slot people up and down each board twice a week until about Christmas. Then from Christmas to the trade deadline, I would review this about 3 times a week. From the end of the regular season until the expansion draft, I would have a meeting/brief discussion every day This is THE MOST IMPORTANT TOOL the pro scouting staff would have.

McPhee will have an incredible arsenal at his disposal. Imagine making deals like, if you pick my player A, I will trade you my 2nd round pick for your 7th, but if you take player B, I will trade you my 5th for your 6th.

It will almost be like he is in Las Vegas. Oh..............never mind, I forgot for a second.

 

[Murf]

For AZ, you might just say "thanks, but no thanks", lol.

 

[jwhouk]

Has anyone gone and done an approximation of what the talent pool would look like, based on the rules laid out for expansion by the NHL? I remember doing some "mock drafts" before the Preds picked their players - keep in mind, not everyone picked in the expansion draft actually ends up playing for the team.

 

[Fourier]

Lifted this from the NHL Talk Board, figured it would be a little more interesting to us than the general HFB population. An article from Larry Fisher at TheHockeyWriters.com

His original post follows:

What could the inaugural Las Vegas roster look like? Which players are your favourite teams likely protecting or exposing? I created a lineup through a mock expansion draft and it's better than you might expect:

http://thehockeywriters.com/mock-expansion-draft-las-vegas-lineup-better-than-expected/

This mock ignores the rule that the players taken must take players with a total of at least $43.8M. That is a significant constrain since it reduces the number of younger players and unsigned RFA's the team can take. So the choices become much more complicated. And as others have said you add to this the waiver issue and it changes the game significantly. I could see LV accepting picks/prospects from teams to choose certain players rather than others.

 

[HanSolo]

They could try to give Bishop 8 million to get there

 

[Fourier]

They could try to give Bishop 8 million to get there

Bishop is a UFA. The 60% rule applies to the contract value of the 30 players they choose. The only part of this I am unsure of is how unsigned RFA's will factor in. But they do have to get to the cap floor as well so they will likely be offering some big dollar deals just as Florida did a few years ago to get to the floor.

 

[jwhouk]

Interesting when you look at the three-year projections for the players listed in the article:

Skaters | Age | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PPG | SHG | GWG | PPA | SHA | S | S% | PPG
Tomas Plekanec | 34 | C | 82 | 19 | 35 | 54 | 7 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 210 | 9.0 | 0.66
Alex Killorn | 27 | C | 78 | 15 | 25 | 40 | 11 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 149 | 10.1 | 0.51
Trevor Daley | 33 | D | 75 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 2 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 121 | 8.3 | 0.41
Jakob Silfverberg | 26 | RW | 77 | 16 | 20 | 36 | 9 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 190 | 8.4 | 0.47
Kevin Klein | 32 | D | 69 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 15 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 72 | 11.1 | 0.33
Colin Wilson | 27 | LW | 71 | 12 | 20 | 32 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 130 | 9.2 | 0.45
Jack Johnson | 30 | D | 70 | 7 | 19 | 26 | -14 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 115 | 6.1 | 0.37
Riley Sheahan | 25 | C | 74 | 13 | 16 | 29 | -4 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 115 | 11.3 | 0.39
Kevin Connauton | 26 | D | 59 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 96 | 6.3 | 0.29
Dustin Brown | 32 | RW | 82 | 12 | 16 | 28 | -7 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 5.9 | 0.34
Dmitry Orlov | 24 | D | 50 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 55 | 9.1 | 0.34
Peter Holland | 26 | C | 60 | 9 | 15 | 24 | -8 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 107 | 8.4 | 0.40
Zemgus Girgensons | 23 | C | 68 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -6 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 113 | 8.8 | 0.34
Calvin de Haan | 25 | D | 66 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94 | 2.1 | 0.23
Devante Smith-Pelly | 24 | RW | 60 | 9 | 12 | 21 | -1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 86 | 10.5 | 0.35
Jason Zucker | 25 | LW | 56 | 14 | 7 | 21 | -5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 127 | 11.0 | 0.38
Nail Yakupov | 23 | RW | 68 | 11 | 16 | 27 | -25 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 148 | 7.4 | 0.40
Adam Lowry | 23 | C | 64 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -4 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 9.9 | 0.25
Chris Tierney | 22 | C | 54 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -7 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 9.4 | 0.33
Dmitrij Jaskin | 23 | RW | 54 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 8.2 | 0.24
Jyrki Jokipakka | 25 | D | 46 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 2.8 | 0.20
Mark Pysyk | 25 | D | 37 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 3.1 | 0.19
Matt Puempel | 24 | LW | 17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 11.1 | 0.18
Brett Ritchie | 23 | RW | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 5.9 | 0.29
Brock McGinn | 21 | LW | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15.4 | 0.27
Brendan Gaunce | 21 | C | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5.9 | 0.10
Totals | | | 1472 | 207 | 331 | 538 | -32 | 585 | 31 | 8 | 44 | 54 | 9 | 2503 | 8.3 | 0.37

Goaltenders | GP | W | L | OT | MIN | GA | GAA | SA | SV | SV% | SO | G | A | PIM | P% | MN/G
Semyon Varlamov | 58 | 30 | 22 | 5 | 3289 | 145 | 2.65 | 1790 | 1644 | .918 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .570 | 56.71
Michal Neuvirth | 29 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 1677 | 72 | 2.58 | 896 | 824 | .920 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .500 | 57.83
Malcolm Subban | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 6.00 | 2 | 1 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 10.00

 

[VanIslander]

If Vegas has Plekanec, Brown, Johnson, Wilson, Killorn, Silfverberg, Jokipakka, Zucker, Lowry, Girgensons and Varlamov, then I'll become a fan pretty quickly. (It'll be a playoff bubble wildcard team right off the bat!)

 

[jwhouk]

207 vs. 218 goals would have put this team squarely in fourth in the Pacific this year.