Player Discussion: Laine

[Upperdeckjet]

There's a lot of emphasis on the trade talk being stimulated by Laine and his desire to move on.

Maybe it's the other way around. Maybe the Jets have decided that Laine isn't progressing the way they'd hoped and they want to maximize the trade return before they lock him into a long-term lucrative deal. Maybe they saw all they needed in his 4th season with him on #1 RW and playing top 5 minutes in the NHL and decided that his contribution was lacking, and they want to take the opportunity to build the roster in another direction. Maybe getting a talented offensive player like Perfetti in the draft also changed their priorities.

I believe there to be a ring of truth to that concept of overall valuation. Laine's name was out there prior to his agents comment in trying to flip that script in favor of their boy. I would think that as a player, it would have been disappointing if his agents just left him flopping around in rumor land to allow his perceived value to drop by any degree.

 

[ovythegiraffe]

I have no idea if that's the way the Jets are thinking, but if they are contemplating trading Laine, maybe it's because they think they can acquire close to equivalent value in return for trading him, with a much lower impact on their salary cap.

Trading Laine isn't just about losing a good young talent, it's about acquiring other talent, too.

Tough part about the trade is that it's very likely gonna look like a loss for The Jets. We're gonna get back either a decent 2C/1st pairing D + extra and the success of the trade is gonna Be mesasured by team success which is affected by lots of other factors. The other team will put Laine in the first line and 1st pp, play him to his offensive strenghts and he's most likely gonna score a lot. Otherwise they won't do The trade. So even If the return is good on paper, it's very likely that Chevy will appear as the loser of the trade unless we go far in the playoffs immediately

I think Chevy will hold on to Laine untill the bitter like he did with Trouba. The difference is though that Trouba apparently wanted out for reasons unrelated to hockey or the team, while Laine wants to be in a role where he's being used for what he does best which is scoring goals, so I think it's still possible for things to turn better, but a lot of it has to do with coaching decisions and we all know that change isn't likely to happen

 

[surixon]

I think Laine's role on the team next year is really up to him. If he trains incredibly hard this offseason and comes into camp even stronger and quicker then last year while exhibiting more consistency in the type of game he played last year then he will get the ice time and likely role that he wants. He is at the age where players really take that step forward so hopefully he takes it ala Mackinnon or even our own Scheifele.

 

[ecolad]

There's a lot of emphasis on the trade talk being stimulated by Laine and his desire to move on.

Maybe it's the other way around. Maybe the Jets have decided that Laine isn't progressing the way they'd hoped and they want to maximize the trade return before they lock him into a long-term lucrative deal. Maybe they saw all they needed in his 4th season with him on #1 RW and playing top 5 minutes in the NHL and decided that his contribution was lacking, and they want to take the opportunity to build the roster in another direction. Maybe getting a talented offensive player like Perfetti in the draft also changed their priorities.

I actually don`t think that this premise can be contested at all. Whether they are right in their assessment , or not, is another question though! It may also be concerning to the organization that any planned PR to rationalize/supportany trade action,, whenever it may occur, may now be looked at in a more jaundiced fashion, with failure to deal with player relationship issues thrown back at them.

 

[Hunter368]

I think Laine's role on the team next year is really up to him. If he trains incredibly hard this offseason and comes into camp even stronger and quicker then last year while exhibiting more consistency in the type of game he played last year then he will get the ice time and likely role that he wants. He is at the age where players really take that step forward so hopefully he takes it ala Mackinnon or even our own Scheifele.

Agreed, if he comes out and delivers better results then Wheeler does playing with Mark....then he will earn that spot. This past year Wheeler still delivered better results on that line and logically played there (when not playing 2C).

 

[ecolad]

I have no idea if that's the way the Jets are thinking, but if they are contemplating trading Laine, maybe it's because they think they can acquire close to equivalent value in return for trading him, with a much lower impact on their salary cap.

Trading Laine isn't just about losing a good young talent, it's about acquiring other talent, too.

Sure, but if they hope to realize a lower impact on their salary cap while securing equivalent value, it will have to be a trade primarily for quantity rather than quality, with a definite bias to cost-controlled young players and future picks.

 

[LowLefty]

Sure, but if they hope to realize a lower impact on their salary cap while securing equivalent value, it will have to be a trade primarily for quantity rather than quality, with a definite bias to cost-controlled young players and future picks.

The discussion started weeks ago about where we were spending our money - it isn't necessarily how much although that's part of it.
They can work the $'s within the cap but would that create an imbalance that hurts them going forward.
As stated by many, we are over loaded with skilled winger depth - we need to consider other needs and the cost that come with filling those roles.
@KingBogo does a nice job of summarizing the situation on page 1 - that's pretty much what it all comes down to.
Chevy will need to weigh all of this when working through his options -

 

[surixon]

The discussion started weeks ago about where we were spending our money - it isn't necessarily how much although that's part of it.
They can work the $'s within the cap but would that create an imbalance that hurts them going forward.
As stated by many, we are over loaded with skilled winger depth - we need to consider other needs and the cost that come with filling those roles.
@KingBogo does a nice job of summarizing the situation on page 1 - that's pretty much what it all comes down to.
Chevy will need to weigh all of this when working through his options -

I guess it comes down to our potential ELC benefit. If Samberg, Heionla and Perfetti are able to provide strong play in the top 4 and at the 2C position then having a lot of cap tied up on the wing isn't really an issue given the good contracts we have to Scheifele, JoMo and Helle at the other key positions.

Once most of those ELC's are done we have some of our big octet players off the books.

 

[LowLefty]

I guess it comes down to our potential ELC benefit. If Samberg, Heionla and Perfetti are able to provide strong play in the top 4 and at the 2C position then having a lot of cap tied up on the wing isn't really an issue given the good contracts we have to Scheifele, JoMo and Helle at the other key positions.

Once most of those ELC's are done we have some of our big octet players off the books.

Yes, it will also depend on ELC players - and the time line will be very important. I won't assume anything here but when these players are in a position to have significant impact, is unknown - but the potential is there although how high we forecast the D pces and their impact, will be key.

 

[Whileee]

As the one article stated on TSN said, if Chevy is debating about trading Laine he isn't giving him away......if he trades him it's to make the team better overall.

Jets greatest strength is on the wing, so if we're trading for any big piece(s) it likely means trading a winger. While one can debate which winger is best to trade, one can't debate wingers are our greatest strength. If we ignore all the speculation circling Laine & his feelings (b/c no one knows the truth)......the plain fact is Laine wouldn't sign long term, while Ehlers, KC & Wheeler did......that alone likely makes Laine the most likely winger traded IMO. Add to that fact Laine return would fill a big need, trading Wheeler isn't filling any big need, all he returns is futures.

Could Laine resign long term in the near future? Maybe, but he hasn't to-date. If the Jets believe the biggest window is in the next four years, I can see them thinking Wheeler is good enough and not wanting to invest in another huge cap hit winger when they have other big needs on D and 2C. IMO Laine won't be traded at this point this offseason, he might be traded next offseason post expansion draft.....if he does get traded.

Good post. I still think there's a decent chance that the Jets and Laine's camp bridge the gap on a contract and maybe extend him for 3-4 years, instead of trying for a really long deal. That would give Laine a chance to hit UFA only a year or two after his RFA reframe and keep him with the Jets during the next 3-5 year window.

If they do trade Laine I think there's a decent chance it happens this off-season. He has added value on his bridge contract next season, and I think the Jets are likely in a bit of a transitional season with Samberg, Heinola and Perfetti not yet ready for prime roles.

 

[Whileee]

Sure, but if they hope to realize a lower impact on their salary cap while securing equivalent value, it will have to be a trade primarily for quantity rather than quality, with a definite bias to cost-controlled young players and future picks.

I agree with this. Perhaps one very good and young roster player and picks / prospects.

 

[Psych0dad]

Agreed, if he comes out and delivers better results then Wheeler does playing with Mark....then he will earn that spot. This past year Wheeler still delivered better results on that line and logically played there (when not playing 2C).

I already responded to this saying that Laine has outproduced Wheeler pretty much the whole time he's been there.

 

[pucka lucka]

There's a lot of emphasis on the trade talk being stimulated by Laine and his desire to move on.

Maybe it's the other way around. Maybe the Jets have decided that Laine isn't progressing the way they'd hoped and they want to maximize the trade return before they lock him into a long-term lucrative deal. Maybe they saw all they needed in his 4th season with him on #1 RW and playing top 5 minutes in the NHL and decided that his contribution was lacking, and they want to take the opportunity to build the roster in another direction. Maybe getting a talented offensive player like Perfetti in the draft also changed their priorities.

Right, this org that has won a thing wants to get rid of talented 22 year old players so we can sign more 33 year old wheelers and cater to them. Makes perfect sense.

 

[KingBogo]

I already responded to this saying that Laine has outproduced Wheeler pretty much the whole time he's been there.

By what measures? Saying something isn’t proving it.

 

[buggs]

As the one article stated on TSN said, if Chevy is debating about trading Laine he isn't giving him away......if he trades him it's to make the team better overall.

Jets greatest strength is on the wing, so if we're trading for any big piece(s) it likely means trading a winger. While one can debate which winger is best to trade, one can't debate wingers are our greatest strength. If we ignore all the speculation circling Laine & his feelings (b/c no one knows the truth)......the plain fact is Laine wouldn't sign long term, while Ehlers, KC & Wheeler did......that alone likely makes Laine the most likely winger traded IMO. Add to that fact Laine return would fill a big need, trading Wheeler isn't filling any big need, all he returns is futures.

Could Laine resign long term in the near future? Maybe, but he hasn't to-date. If the Jets believe the biggest window is in the next four years, I can see them thinking Wheeler is good enough and not wanting to invest in another huge cap hit winger when they have other big needs on D and 2C. IMO Laine won't be traded at this point this offseason, he might be traded next offseason post expansion draft.....if he does get traded.

To the bolded: I don't disagree that Ehlers/KC/Wheeler did but let's be a bit more realistic here than just referencing the results of the signings. Let's also consider the cap situation at the time of KC signing long term and Laine signing a bridge. It's a bit disingenuous to suggest that Laine "wouldn't" sign long term when there really wasn't cap room for that sort of signing. Even prior to Connor signing it was a general board consensus that one of Connor or Laine would have to be bridged due to cap considerations. Let's also not forget that at the time of Connor signing both Byfuglien and Little were eating substantial cap space. There simply wasn't room to sign Laine to a long term deal equivalent to what Connor got.

Now if you want to contend that Laine was asking more long term than was Connor and that's why Connor got signed to the long term deal, I'd definitely agree.

Regarding Wheeler, it's just a five year deal thankfully. Given he'll be 37 when it expires thank goodness it wasn't longer. And that sort of is the reason that I'm reluctant to trade Laine. Perhaps Wheeler defies the age related statistics, but I think it not unreasonable to suggest we've already seen substantial changes in his game that suggest he's on the decline. Maybe he hangs on and is super productive for another few years but the odds are against that. Who moves into that 1RW slot and more importantly what's the solution for 2RW without Laine present? Wheeler is a short term player at this point. And I don't think Wheeler is going to be "good enough" for 1RW for more than this year at best. Not for a four year window.

 

[Psych0dad]

By what measures? Saying something isn’t proving it.

Positive impact in goal differential. GF60-GA60 difference.

This has been proven even here several times over the years so it's nothing new to you either.

Basically, how much your presence on ice affects the score positively. Just the score. Because in the end everything else is completely secondary. What matters is if you are effective positively towards winning the game (scoring more than allowing). +/- excluding EN situations. Laine outscores and out defends Wheeler.

Looking super busy vs. real world results is what it comes down to in the RW debate.

 

[Halberdier]

By what measures? Saying something isn’t proving it.

5-on-5 goal differential, or in other words: winning.

The game is about scoring more than your opponent. If you look all the 4 seasons, regular & post season, Laine is third after Scheifele & Ehlers. Also, if you take out his very bad 18-19 season, Laine actually leads the 5-on-5 goal differential.

Everything other is interesting and all, but positive goal differential wins you the games.

From top of my head, last season Laine&Scheifele were together 5-on-5 +38 - 33 = +5. Not super cool but still good. I don't think you should play CSL together, but it did work OK.

Last season Wheeler&Scheifele reunited for +18 - 16 = +2. Slighlty worse, but still winning, which has not been the case always for CSW that tends to cause a lot of offense on both ends of the rink. These stats can't pick up those occasions where eg. Wheeler jumps into the bench after being too deep into the o-zone and the opposite team scores from odd man rush. But nevertheless, 5-on-5 goal differential tells you pretty much, when the sample size is large enough.

 

[Halberdier]

Agreed, if he comes out and delivers better results then Wheeler does playing with Mark....then he will earn that spot. This past year Wheeler still delivered better results on that line and logically played there (when not playing 2C).

That's a nice story and all, but it's not true.

19-20 5-on-5:

Fefe & Patty +38 -33 = +5
Fefe & Blake +18 -16 = +2

You can say, "roughly similar and only slightly worse results", but you can't say "better results" as that was simply not true.

The real question is obviously why ESL was not formed when they picked up Eakin, but that is Maurice-discussion.

 

[PhilJets]

5-on-5 goal differential, or in other words: winning.

The game is about scoring more than your opponent. If you look all the 4 seasons, regular & post season, Laine is third after Scheifele & Ehlers. Also, if you take out his very bad 18-19 season, Laine actually leads the 5-on-5 goal differential.

Everything other is interesting and all, but positive goal differential wins you the games.

From top of my head, last season Laine&Scheifele were together 5-on-5 +38 - 33 = +5. Not super cool but still good. I don't think you should play CSL together, but it did work OK.

Last season Wheeler&Scheifele reunited for +18 - 16 = +2. Slighlty worse, but still winning, which has not been the case always for CSW that tends to cause a lot of offense on both ends of the rink. These stats can't pick up those occasions where eg. Wheeler jumps into the bench after being too deep into the o-zone and the opposite team scores from odd man rush. But nevertheless, 5-on-5 goal differential tells you pretty much, when the sample size is large enough.

Please don't take out Laine bad Jan to March 2019. Laine stats will jump up.
Its 12.5% of Laine's regular season career.

Anyways put a video side by side of Laine shots Nov 2018 vs those month.
You will see a problem with strength and his body movement.
I wished the dude just rested there for a month or so.

 

[PhilJets]

Positive impact in goal differential. GF60-GA60 difference.

This has been proven even here several times over the years so it's nothing new to you either.

Basically, how much your presence on ice affects the score positively. Just the score. Because in the end everything else is completely secondary. What matters is if you are effective positively towards winning the game (scoring more than allowing). +/- excluding EN situations. Laine outscores and out defends Wheeler.

Looking super busy vs. real world results is what it comes down to in the RW debate.

If you don't check (eye test) the looking super busy always looks good.
Same in real world

 

[Whileee]

Right, this org that has won a thing wants to get rid of talented 22 year old players so we can sign more 33 year old wheelers and cater to them. Makes perfect sense.

Well, that might be your interpretation, but it doesn't have much to do with my post or opinion.

 

[KingBogo]

Positive impact in goal differential. GF60-GA60 difference.

This has been proven even here several times over the years so it's nothing new to you either.

Basically, how much your presence on ice affects the score positively. Just the score. Because in the end everything else is completely secondary. What matters is if you are effective positively towards winning the game (scoring more than allowing). +/- excluding EN situations. Laine outscores and out defends Wheeler.

Looking super busy vs. real world results is what it comes down to in the RW debate.

5-on-5 goal differential, or in other words: winning.

The game is about scoring more than your opponent. If you look all the 4 seasons, regular & post season, Laine is third after Scheifele & Ehlers. Also, if you take out his very bad 18-19 season, Laine actually leads the 5-on-5 goal differential.

Everything other is interesting and all, but positive goal differential wins you the games.

From top of my head, last season Laine&Scheifele were together 5-on-5 +38 - 33 = +5. Not super cool but still good. I don't think you should play CSL together, but it did work OK.

Last season Wheeler&Scheifele reunited for +18 - 16 = +2. Slighlty worse, but still winning, which has not been the case always for CSW that tends to cause a lot of offense on both ends of the rink. These stats can't pick up those occasions where eg. Wheeler jumps into the bench after being too deep into the o-zone and the opposite team scores from odd man rush. But nevertheless, 5-on-5 goal differential tells you pretty much, when the sample size is large enough.

I'll respond to both of these arguments because basically they are the same. Having a slightly higher goals differential % isolating just 2 players is a pretty soft argument IMO unless you care for only 1 player and not the team as a whole. I could post a whole bunch of possession metrics that don't put Laine in a favorable light but rather I will stick to your 5-5 GF% argument. Last season Laine with all linemates had a 51.96 GF%. Isolated with Scheifele it was 52.50%. A grand difference of 1 goal. Laine already plays with the player that has the biggest impact on his GF% and that is Ehlers. Isolating Ehlers with Laine his GF% goes up to 78.57%. My guess it is because Ehlers is able to transition the puck from defense better than anyone else on the team. If you go back a couple years Ehlers-Statsny-Laine had a 69.57 GF%. Probably the best GF% would be Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine but most of this comes from Ehlers not Scheifele who he already plays with. If you look at lines Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler has a very solid 57.14 GF%, while Connor-Scheifele-Laine has a poor one with a 48.39%.

If you look at it from a team perspective. Laine and Connor are our 2 best natural goal scoreres. Wheeler and Scheifele make Connor a more effective goal scorer and Ehlers makes Laine a better goal scorer. IMO Scheifele adds too little to Ehlers and Laine to take away the positives for Connor. This is especially true that we have a center that has worked best with Laine in the past in Statsny.

 

[Jets 31]

I would like to see Wheeler do more of this, he used to take the puck hard to the net all the time.

 

[SCP Guy]

I would like to see Wheeler do more of this, he used to take the puck hard to the net all the time.

Father Time catches up to everyone....That extra half step he had on 90% of defenders is gone so when he tries this it is an easy rub out. They are no longer on their back foot worried about getting blown past....It’s not that he doesn’t want to do it, he no longer can

 

[Halberdier]

I'll respond to both of these arguments because basically they are the same. Having a slightly higher goals differential % isolating just 2 players is a pretty soft argument IMO unless you care for only 1 player and not the team as a whole. I could post a whole bunch of possession metrics that don't put Laine in a favorable light but rather I will stick to your 5-5 GF% argument. Last season Laine with all linemates had a 51.96 GF%. Isolated with Scheifele it was 52.50%. A grand difference of 1 goal. Laine already plays with the player that has the biggest impact on his GF% and that is Ehlers. Isolating Ehlers with Laine his GF% goes up to 78.57%. My guess it is because Ehlers is able to transition the puck from defense better than anyone else on the team. If you go back a couple years Ehlers-Statsny-Laine had a 69.57 GF%. Probably the best GF% would be Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine but most of this comes from Ehlers not Scheifele who he already plays with. If you look at lines Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler has a very solid 57.14 GF%, while Connor-Scheifele-Laine has a poor one with a 48.39%.

If you look at it from a team perspective. Laine and Connor are our 2 best natural goal scoreres. Wheeler and Scheifele make Connor a more effective goal scorer and Ehlers makes Laine a better goal scorer. IMO Scheifele adds too little to Ehlers and Laine to take away the positives for Connor. This is especially true that we have a center that has worked best with Laine in the past in Statsny.

The claim by someone was that Wheeler did better in results with Scheifele than Laine did. For that claim you need to check (using for example Natural Stat Trick line tool) how Wheeler did with Scheifele (and without Laine) and how Laine did with Scheifele (and without Wheeler).

That was exactly what I did. I did not cherry pick anything. I just took the claim that was made and pointed out that it was not true.

As I found out, the difference in results was pretty marginal, but anyway it was not favourable for Wheeler.

Ehlers does not relate to the argument at all as the argument was about "1st line with Laine vs. 1st line with Wheeler", or in practice sadly "CSL vs CSW" for 19-20.