Player Discussion Kirill Kaprizov

[MNRube]

Would be negligent if his agent didn’t leverage the KHL angle. Kap is definitely in the Marchand, Huberdeau, Panarin tier and not in the Fiala, Connor, Ehlers tier of wingers. He’s going to command 9M, let’s not pretend like he isn’t capable of being a Top 5 F in the NHL. It’s a unique situation

 

[57special]

I think he is head and shoulders better than Ehlers and Connor, and I'd take him over Gaudreau any day. I also don't think the "55 games" argument holds as much water with a player that's performed as well as he has for as long as he has outside the NHL. This isn't like a 19 year old coming in and racking up points on a strong powerplay unit or something. He was a driver on pretty much every point he had this year.

6 years would be great, but walking away from 4 x $7.5m (or therebouts) is crazy to me. That's squarely in market value territory, opens up whatever options we'll need for an eventual extension, and keeps the best forward we've had in years on the roster. Besides not getting everything we want I don't really see a downside.

Gaudreau

22yo....84 pts.
24 yo....78 yo
25 yo...99 pts.

Connors(same draft as Kaprizov)

22 yo....66 pts.
23 yo....73 pts.
24 yo...50 pts.

Kaprizov

24 yo.... 51 pts.

Overestimating Kaprizov's worth, and overpaying him on a contract, would be a big mistake. Fiala, and then JEE, would increase their salary demands, seeing the benchmark that he has set. He has been fun to watch, but tell me, what extraordinary things has MN done with him on the team? With him on the ice, they once again failed to get past the 1st round in the playoffs. Teams such as BOS, and CHI, STL, and LA, were champs partly because their stars such as Doughty, Kane, Toews, Bergeron, Marchand, Kopitar, Keith, Quick, Pietrangelo, etc. were on moderate contracts, which allowed them to ice quality depth.

You want to pay a winger 9-10 M after one shortened season when he wasn't in the top 20 in scoring. That's f***ing nuts. He was tied in playoff scoring with Parise, JEE(who had two goals called back), Dumba, Greenway, Spurgeon, Zucc, Brodin.

Would love to have this guy back on the team, but not at any cost. If he's all about the money, and considers a 64M contract as beneath him after 55 NHL gp, then it's time to move on.

Tarasenko

22yo...73 pts.
23 yo...74 pts.
25 yo... 75 pts.
26 yo... 66 pts.
27 yo...68 pts.
28 yo...10 pts.
29 yo...14 pts.

It is not our problem that Kaprizov chose to play some of his most productive years in the KHL. That's on him. It's not our job to "make up for those years".

 

[space321]

Gaudreau

22yo....84 pts.
24 yo....78 yo
25 yo...99 pts.

Connors(same draft as Kaprizov)

22 yo....66 pts.
23 yo....73 pts.
24 yo...50 pts.

Kaprizov

24 yo.... 51 pts.

Overestimating Kaprizov's worth, and overpaying him on a contract, would be a big mistake. Fiala, and then JEE, would increase their salary demands, seeing the benchmark that he has set. He has been fun to watch, but tell me, what has extraordinary things has MN done with him on the team? With him on the ice, they once again failed to get past the 1st round in the playoffs. Teams such as BOS, and CHI, STL, and LA, were champs partly because their stars such as Doughty, Kane, Toews, Bergeron, Marchand, Kopitar, Keith, Quick, Pietrangelo, etc. were on moderate contracts, which allowed them to ice quality depth.

You want to pay a winger 9-10 M after one shortened season when he wasn't in the top 20 in scoring. That's f***ing nuts. He was tied in playoff scoring with Parise JEE(who had two goals called back), Dumba, Greenway, Spurgeon, Zucc, Brodin.

Would love to have this guy back on the team, but not at any cost. If he's all about the money, and considers a 64M contract as beneath him after 55 NHL gp, then it's time to move on. It's for the best.

Tarasenko

22yo...73 pts.
23 yo...74 pts.
25 yo... 75 pts.
26 yo... 66 pts.
27 yo...68 pts.
28 yo...10 pts.
29 yo...14 pts.

It is not our problem that Kaprizov chose to play some of his most productive years in the KHL. That's on him. It's not our job to "make up for those years".

Yeah 51 points... in a 56 game season. Cmon dude are you doing it on purpose?

The guy's not a slave. Not negotiating with your best player sets a really bad example, especially for future players (ie. Russians), and no, Kaprizov won't be the last Russian this team drafts, so it's wiser to be more accomodating.

He could love it here and still have a myriad of valid reasons to not take an 8 x 8M contract lol. And who's saying we should pay him 10M? Anyways, most rumours point to term and not money being the reason for the contract holdup. It's not 8M vs 10M, it's 8 years vs 3 or 4 years.

 

[Bazeek]

Gaudreau

22yo....84 pts.
24 yo....78 yo
25 yo...99 pts.

Connors(same draft as Kaprizov)

22 yo....66 pts.
23 yo....73 pts.
24 yo...50 pts.

Kaprizov

24 yo.... 51 pts.

Overestimating Kaprizov's worth, and overpaying him on a contract, would be a big mistake. Fiala, and then JEE, would increase their salary demands, seeing the benchmark that he has set. He has been fun to watch, but tell me, what has extraordinary things has MN done with him on the team? With him on the ice, they once again failed to get past the 1st round in the playoffs. Teams such as BOS, and CHI, STL, and LA, were champs partly because their stars such as Doughty, Kane, Toews, Bergeron, Marchand, Kopitar, Keith, Quick, Pietrangelo, etc. were on moderate contracts, which allowed them to ice quality depth.

You want to pay a winger 9-10 M after one shortened season when he wasn't in the top 20 in scoring. That's f***ing nuts. He was tied in playoff scoring with Parise JEE(who had two goals called back), Dumba, Greenway, Spurgeon, Zucc, Brodin.

Would love to have this guy back on the team, but not at any cost. If he's all about the money, and considers a 64M contract as beneath him after 55 NHL gp, then it's time to move on. It's for the best.

Tarasenko

22yo...73 pts.
23 yo...74 pts.
25 yo... 75 pts.
26 yo... 66 pts.
27 yo...68 pts.
28 yo...10 pts.
29 yo...14 pts.

I don't think it makes a lot of sense to use total points from full seasons versus one from a pandemic-shortened season. I get that it's easy to skew "on pace" numbers but I'm not sure what alternative there is when looking at years like this one or the last one, and over a full season he was on pace to put up 76. That puts him above everyone but Gaudreau, who's been fantastic offensively but just isn't as complete a player as Kaprizov is (at least in my opinion).

And you keep going back to this $10m number but I don't think there's been any indication that that's really on the table here. Yeah, it might take that much to get him signed for 8 years right now, but so what? Just don't insist on signing him for max term right now. At 4 years he'd still have a chance to get a huge contract and the team would have 4 years to decide whether or not he's the guy to invest that in. So what's the downside?

 

[57special]

Yeah 51 points... in a 56 game season. Cmon dude are you doing it on purpose?

What are you talking about? Connor got his 50 pts. in 56 gp, also. All the other numbers listed either meet, or exceed Kaprizov's PPG pts. totals, and in a greater amount of games, over a period of years. Surely consistency and durability count for something? Are you that easy? Does his inability to score in the playoffs not give you just a little bit of pause?

 

[57special]

I don't think it makes a lot of sense to use total points from full seasons versus one from a pandemic-shortened season. I get that it's easy to skew "on pace" numbers but I'm not sure what alternative there is when looking at years like this one or the last one, and over a full season he was on pace to put up 76. That puts him above everyone but Gaudreau, who's been fantastic offensively but just isn't as complete a player as Kaprizov is (at least in my opinion).

And you keep going back to this $10m number but I don't think there's been any indication that that's really on the table here. Yeah, it might take that much to get him signed for 8 years right now, but so what? Just don't insist on signing him for max term right now. At 4 years he'd still have a chance to get a huge contract and the team would have 4 years to decide whether or not he's the guy to invest that in. So what's the downside?

Well, if he won't accept 8M, then it's certain that he wants more, right? Maybe he only wants Skinner money, not 10M. The point still stands that he wants a haul after only 55gp with the team, and that he is looking to play as few seasons as possible here before being free to go elsewhere. That is a giant red flag, to me- again, if true- all I am going on is Russo's article. The Weekes tweet is a nothing burger.

 

[Bazeek]

Well, if he won't accept 8M, then it's certain that he wants more, right? Maybe he only wants Skinner money, not 10M. The point still stands that he wants a haul after only 55gp with the team, and that he is looking to play as few seasons as possible here before being free to go elsewhere. That is a giant red flag, to me- again, if true- all I am going on is Russo's article. The Weekes tweet is a nothing burger.

I don't think you're accounting for the term involved here.

What the Wild (maybe) offered was $8.Xm for 8 years ($64m+ total)
What Kaprizov (maybe) wanted for that term was $10m ($80m total)

That doesn't mean the floor is suddenly $8m on any term, he just doesn't want to sell 5 UFA years for $8m when he thinks he can make more than that. Especially since it means that that contract would expire when he's 32 instead of 28. Obviously seeking his second contract at 28 is going to be much more lucrative and is a major part of what's actually going to happen here.

So in my mind the middle ground here is around $7.5m for 4 years ($30m total) and then the opportunity to sign for $10m+ x 8 years ($80m total) when he's 28, whether it's here or elsewhere. That'd bring him up to $110m total. Compare that to signing for $8m x 8 right now: to get to $110m he'd have to sign a $46m deal at 32. That's going to be much, much harder and much, much riskier for him.

So even if it means a lower cap hit, shorter term on this deal works out to more total money for him in the end. That's likely what the discussions are going to revolve around, and there's really no reason for either side to dig in instead of meeting in the middle.

 

[Wild11MN]

Doesn't going back to the KHL essentially "pause" his NHL contract? Or would he still hit free agency earlier because of his age at some point?

 

[Bazeek]

Doesn't going back to the KHL essentially "pause" his NHL contract? Or would he still hit free agency earlier because of his age at some point?

I think he hits UFA in 2024 regardless at this point, but I could be wrong.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Doesn't going back to the KHL essentially "pause" his NHL contract? Or would he still hit free agency earlier because of his age at some point?

He’ll hit no matter what at 27.

 

[AKL]

I think 4x7-7.5 is a fair compromise for both sides, and I think Kaprizov doesn't have the leverage he and his agent wish they did with the KHL threat, so they should probably just get it done.

 

[TaLoN]

We just can't have nice things.

I see nothing of concern, only someone trying to make themselves relevant as an insider without any real insider information.

Nothing to see here.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Maybe the guy doesn't want to commit to a team till he's 32 if he is unsure of their ability to contend/win. The only impression I got was that Kap wants a shorter than 8 year contract and he wants a good center to play with.

 

[GordieGallant]

Someone needs to set the lad up with a smokin’ hot babe from Chaska.

 

[Hall of Faber]

I don’t think he wants to play in KHL. He looked like a butcher’s dog on the ice last year. 75% of the fans wearing his number. I bet like 90%+ of new sweaters sale are 97. He literally has the whole state blushing over him.

 

[TheeNorthStar]

Someone needs to set the lad up with a smokin’ hot babe from Chaska.

You might be the first person ever to utter those words hahaha

 

[SMTHook]

We all know KHL isn't leverage. So why's it even being discussed? The only logical explanation is these two sides must be an ocean apart. This shouldn't be this difficult.

 

[2Pair]

We all know KHL isn't leverage. So why's it even being discussed? The only logical explanation is these two sides must be an ocean apart. This shouldn't be this difficult.

Theofanous is trying to put the fanbase against Guerin and scare him into giving in earlier than he should. It's also the only move he has, so there's not really any reason to hold on to it.

This is a simple negotiation without a ton of variables to have to consider. I don't how they could be an "ocean apart" when there really isn't an "ocean" worth of negotiating space to begin with.

A 7-8 year deal for what Guerin would consider "fair" would be moronic for Kaprizov to agree to.

A 7-8 year deal that would be high enough to get Kaprizov to agree to sign away the majority of his career, would be moronic for Guerin to agree to.

Not even Guerin is dumb enough to agree to anything at 3 years or less. Doesn't really benefit Kaprizov much either if the cap is likely to remain stagnant for 3-4 years.

That leaves the negotiation at 4-6 years at a fair price. Guerin gives more money to get more term, Kap gets less money if he wants less term. There isn't much there to argue about.

 

[nickschultzfan]

If I get him for 8 years and all of his prime, over $10m/year is fine.

He will never be better than next 4-5 years.

 

[57special]

Someone needs to set the lad up with a smokin’ hot babe from Chaska.

If Kaprizov was from Jordan or Waconia that might be a sound strategy.

 

[Hall of Faber]

I do think if Guerin won’t do 4 or less years, Kap will seriously consider staying home until he is a UFA. I believe it’s not a total bluff.

 

[AKL]

I do think if Guerin won’t do 4 or less years, Kap will seriously consider staying home until he is a UFA. I believe it’s not a total bluff.

If it's money he's after, going back to Russia isn't a real option he has. Cap is 12M in Russia, highest paid player last season was at about 1.5M. Let's say Kaprizov gets 2M, that means he earns 6M total the next three years. After that, he's relying on a team paying him 10-11M for 7 years for 55 career games three years ago.

If he stays here for 5 years at something like 8M per, he's at 40M, and can sign another contract at 29. Let's say he does get 11M that time round, for 7 years, he'd be at 77M for that contract, 117M total. In order to match that in the first scenario he would have to sign a 7 year contract for almost 16M.

So by going to Russia for three more years, he's walking away from at least 20-30M, and his agent is walking away from whatever cut he would get of 20-30M+.

Taking a 5x8M contract may not be his first choice, but there's almost no scenario where it's not his best choice financially

 

[57special]

I do think if Guerin won’t do 4 or less years, Kap will seriously consider staying home until he is a UFA. I believe it’s not a total bluff.

It's a bluff. The money matters, but even more, Kaprizov is a competitor, and won't accept playing in the KHL after excelling in the NHL. Guerin has way more leverage than Kap. What I am interested to see is if the negotiation gets public, and a bit nasty, or if it stays behind closed doors. Remember, the next 3 or 4 years are highly likely to be his prime. As much as I'd like to lock him up for 8, getting a 4-5 year contract at a slightly lesser rate isn't the worst thing. If he only wants to sign for 3 years, then you lowball the hell out of him.

 

[Bazeek]

It's a bluff. The money matters, but even more, Kaprizov is a competitor, and won't accept playing in the KHL after excelling in the NHL. Guerin has way more leverage than Kap. What I am interested to see is if the negotiation gets public, and a bit nasty, or if it stays behind closed doors. Remember, the next 3 or 4 years are highly likely to be his prime. As much as I'd like to lock him up for 8, getting a 4-5 year contract at a slightly lesser rate isn't the worst thing. If he only wants to sign for 3 years, then you lowball the hell out of him.

I don't think there's any chance his agent dies on the "3 years" hill, but if the Wild were to dig in on 7-8 years it probably becomes more than a bluff. Kaprizov's camp has a sound economic case for not wanting to go there and the Wild have a sound cap-oriented case for not wanting to offer 3 or fewer years. Neither side has a compelling reason to refuse a 4-5 year deal so it should just be a matter of time until they end up there. How exactly it plays out is probably mostly a function of how dramatic Theofanous wants to be about it.

 

[57special]

I don't think there's any chance his agent dies on the "3 years" hill, but if the Wild were to dig in on 7-8 years it probably becomes more than a bluff. Kaprizov's camp has a sound economic case for not wanting to go there and the Wild have a sound cap-oriented case for not wanting to offer 3 or fewer years. Neither side has a compelling reason to refuse a 4-5 year deal so it should just be a matter of time until they end up there. How exactly it plays out is probably mostly a function of how dramatic Theofanous wants to be about it.

I don't see the big problem with them getting 64M dollars on a 8 year deal. So what if he's 32 yo at the end of it? What if he has a career threatening or ending injury next year(i.e. Tarasenko), or his play simply falls off(Duchene, Johansen)? The risk is all on MN- surely they have to acknowledge the value of that. If he continues to play at the level he is at, or even improves, he might well be able to get a significant deal when 32 yo, like Pavelski.

If he wants only a 4-5 year deal then MN should downgrade the amount given to 7M or so. If I was Kap, I'd take the long term deal, maybe with a limited NTC(within reason) so he can dictate where he wants to go should he and the team decide to part ways.

If he is unhappy in MN after a few years time and wants to be traded then MN will accommodate him. Nobody wants that stench around the dressing room(see; Reinhart, Eichel).

I hope that Guerin is working his ass off to sign JEE, Fiala, and a C, in the meantime. That will give Kap confidence that the team is going in the right direction. Hell, it will give me confidence that they are going in the right direction.