Player Discussion Kirill Kaprizov

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16thOverallSaveUs

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'Tis the season.
I will say, a 1 year deal might be the way to go. Gives us a bigger sample size and if he touches a ppg next season we can give him Panarin’s deal. 2 year deal sets up a scenario where we have to trade him if he decides he’s only signing a one year deal afterwards.
 
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Dr Jan Itor

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So the math goes something like this:

Let's say that he can make $2 million a year in the KHL, which is probably too high, but whatever.

He turns down 8 x $8.5M from us.

He plays 3 years in the KHL and comes back as a complete UFA.

In order to break even money-wise, he'd be relying on a team paying him at least $12.4 million per year for at least 5 years, at 27 years old, with only 55 games of NHL equity from over 3 years ago. And if the salary cap rumors are true, the cap will still be $81.5 million.

Good luck with that.
 

Bazeek

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I will say, a 1 year deal might be the way to go. Gives us a bigger sample size and if he touches a ppg next season we can give him Panarin’s deal. 2 year deal sets up a scenario where we have to trade him if he decides he’s only signing a one year deal afterwards.
Possibly. As far as I know we haven't heard what sort of term he's actually pushing for, though you'd assume his ideal term takes him straight to UFA in 2024. It seems a little extreme to refuse to budge off of that at all, so it'll probably come down to how many years Guerin can push him in either direction. We'll see.
 

nickschultzfan

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Do best to sign him this summer, but if he doesn't I would have the jet ready for August 1 to send him to Toronto for Marner.
 

AKL

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So the math goes something like this:

Let's say that he can make $2 million a year in the KHL, which is probably too high, but whatever.

He turns down 8 x $8.5M from us.

He plays 3 years in the KHL and comes back as a complete UFA.

In order to break even money-wise, he'd be relying on a team paying him at least $12.4 million per year for at least 5 years, at 27 years old, with only 55 games of NHL equity from over 3 years ago. And if the salary cap rumors are true, the cap will still be $81.5 million.

Good luck with that.

Exactly. Exercising his leverage costs him maybe 20-30M in potential lifetime earnings. That's not leverage.
 

16thOverallSaveUs

Danila Yurov Fan Club Executive Assistant
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Possibly. As far as I know we haven't heard what sort of term he's actually pushing for, though you'd assume his ideal term takes him straight to UFA in 2024. It seems a little extreme to refuse to budge off of that at all, so it'll probably come down to how many years Guerin can push him in either direction. We'll see.
It seems extreme, but his agent knows that’s the last thing Guerin will want, so they’ll try and stay on a 2-3 year deal as long as possible for extra leverage.

The other thing this sotuation should do is really put a gun to Guerin’s head to get a center.
 

Dr Jan Itor

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It seems extreme, but his agent knows that’s the last thing Guerin will want, so they’ll try and stay on a 2-3 year deal as long as possible for extra leverage.

The other thing this sotuation should do is really put a gun to Guerin’s head to get a center.

How does Guerin bring in a center of his liking knowing that he'll have to pay him $10+ million in a year?
 

Bazeek

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It seems extreme, but his agent knows that’s the last thing Guerin will want, so they’ll try and stay on a 2-3 year deal as long as possible for extra leverage.

The other thing this sotuation should do is really put a gun to Guerin’s head to get a center.
I've done everything short of founding an order of knights in my crusade to add a center, but ultimately this shouldn't really affect Guerin's plans there. Either he's already acknowledged the obvious need and has some sort of plan to address it or he hasn't and this is what it took to convince him that it's a priority. I really hope we're not in that second reality.
 
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nickschultzfan

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So the math goes something like this:

Let's say that he can make $2 million a year in the KHL, which is probably too high, but whatever.

He turns down 8 x $8.5M from us.

He plays 3 years in the KHL and comes back as a complete UFA.

In order to break even money-wise, he'd be relying on a team paying him at least $12.4 million per year for at least 5 years, at 27 years old, with only 55 games of NHL equity from over 3 years ago. And if the salary cap rumors are true, the cap will still be $81.5 million.

Good luck with that.
Not to mention, as good as he is, playing through his prime years in the KHL will make him plateau. He wouldn't be worth the contract he would get if he came back.
 

AKL

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I've done everything short of founding an order of knights in my crusade to add a center, but ultimately this shouldn't really affect Guerin's plans there. Either he's already acknowledged the obvious need and has some sort of plan to address it or he hasn't and this is what it took to convince him that it's a priority. I really hope we're not in that second reality.

I don't think it's so much "make him realize we need a center" as it is ""blackmail" him into making a move against his better judgment to appease one player"
 

Dr Jan Itor

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Guerin should sit on 4 years. Kaprizov can:

a) be ok with it
b) play for 3 years, make it clear he's not re-signing, and we'll trade him as a rental
c) work out a trade right now, for a haul, to a team that can give him what he wants
d) play in Russia
 

AKL

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What's the max salary for a khler?

I'm not sure if there's a max salary per player, but the total cap is just over 12-13M. I think we've learned previously that the highest paid player made, 1.5M-ish?
 

Bazeek

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I don't think it's so much "make him realize we need a center" as it is ""blackmail" him into making a move against his better judgment to appease one player"
I guess I phrased that awkwardly, but I more meant that whatever Guerin's plans were for his centers next year, they really shouldn't be affected by this. If the price on, say, Eichel was too high last week, Kaprizov playing hardball shouldn't change that. Both sides should already be in agreement about the need to upgrade the position.
 
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16thOverallSaveUs

Danila Yurov Fan Club Executive Assistant
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If we sign him to a short term deal of any fashion(1-3 years) we either sign him to a major deal and gut our team afterwards, or we lose him after the deal, hopefully recouping some assets back.

If I’m Guerin, I’m saying, “ok, you have to sign a 6 year deal, otherwise you’re playing the next 3 years until UFA in the KHL” and I’m not backing down from that. We have to sign him long term.
 
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Bazeek

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If we sign him to a short term deal of any fashion(1-3 years) we either sign him to a major deal and gut our team afterwards, or we lose him after the deal, hopefully recouping some assets back.

If I’m Guerin, I’m saying, “ok, you have to sign a 6 year deal, otherwise you’re playing the next 3 years until UFA in the KHL” and I’m not backing down from that. We have to sign him long term.
It's not ideal but I think even a 4 year deal is alright, especially if it keeps the AAV more modest. That'd take him up until Parise and Suter expire, at which point you can reallocate however much of that you need to to his new contract, assuming both sides are interested. If you get into year 3 and he doesn't seem interested in extending maybe you move him then.
 
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mouser

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What's the max salary for a khler?

The handful of top elite “face of the league” type players used to get $4-5m a few years ago. It’s not completely clear how much that has been reduced in recent years with the KHL trying to push a harder cap. There are also some cap exceptions teams can leverage.
 
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